1. Key takeaways from the month
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, nuclear news was about permits, power contracts and fuel prices more than about plants producing electricity. One US construction permit was issued, technology companies paid for uprates at operating plants, rule changes were finalised, and term uranium passed its 2007 peak. Four conclusions explain the month; each points to the chapter that supports it, with every status judged against Oct 24, 2026.
1. A permit was issued, but nobody has committed to build. The NRC issued TVA a construction permit for Clinch River Unit 1 (a 300 MWe BWRX-300) on Sep 29, the first US permit for the design. TVA's board has not approved a final build commitment, no start date exists, and the 2032 operating target was not reaffirmed. Of the BWRX-300 projects only Darlington in Ontario is under construction, with grid connection targeted by end-2030. At Kemmerer, TerraPower is replacing Bechtel as lead contractor while keeping its 2030 completion and 2031 operation targets, three years after the original 2028 plan. [Chapter 2]
2. Technology companies bought uprates and restarts, not new reactors. Google signed a 20-year PPA for 890 MW of uprates at 11 Constellation units on Oct 6, plus 2,700 MW of supply, and Amazon signed for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs on Sep 30; neither price was disclosed. The new capacity totals 890 + 190 = 1,080 MW, arriving from 2028. The Palisades restart is paused: an irradiated assembly tipped on Aug 30, and the NRC allowed a removal fix on Oct 13. [Chapter 3]
3. Rules are finished faster than money is committed. The NRC approved a final rule on Oct 22 that lets applicants cite test data from DOE- or Department of War-authorised reactors, with review targets of about 18 and 12 months. Part 53 has been in effect since Apr 29, but no Part 53 review is complete and both 2026 construction permits came under Part 50. The month's largest number, up to $120 billion of Korean financing for eight large reactors, is a non-binding framework. [Chapter 4]
4. Fuel is priced ahead of the plants, and new supply comes late. Long-term uranium ended September at $96.50 per lb, above the 2007 peak of $95, while spot was $89.63. DOE awarded $900M task orders to each of Centrus, General Matter and Orano, yet no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028. Russia supplied 26% of US enrichment purchases in 2025, and waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028. [Chapter 5]
The dates that follow are mostly procedural: the NRC rule's Federal Register publication, comment deadlines in November and the Cameco Q3 report. See Chapter 6.
1.1 Projects and deals at a glance
| Project or deal | Party | Capacity | Milestone | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch River Unit 1 (Tennessee) | TVA; GE Vernova Hitachi; NRC | 300 MWe BWRX-300 | NRC construction permit issued | Sep 29, 2026 | Permit issued; no build decision | — |
| Kemmerer Unit 1 (Wyoming) | TerraPower | 345 MWe (500 MWe with storage) | Lead contractor change reported | Sep 24, 2026 | Under construction; permit Mar 2026 | — |
| Google–Constellation PPA | Google; Constellation | 890 MW uprates plus 2,700 MW supply | 20-year PPA and 15-year supply agreement | Oct 6, 2026 | Signed; price not disclosed | — |
| Amazon–Constellation PPA | Amazon; Constellation | 690 MW (Calvert Cliffs) | 20-year PPA | Sep 30, 2026 | Signed; price not disclosed | — |
| Palisades restart (Michigan) | Holtec; NRC | 800 MW | NRC exigent amendment to remove tilted assembly | Oct 13, 2026 | Delayed; fuel loading paused | — |
| NRC rule on DOE/DoW-authorised designs | NRC | Review targets 18 / 12 months | Final rule approved | Oct 22, 2026 | Final, not yet in effect | — |
| US–Korea nuclear framework | US; Republic of Korea | Up to $120B, 8 large reactors | Framework announced | Sep 30, 2026 | Announced, non-binding | — |
| General Matter Paducah | General Matter; NRC | LEU up to 5%, HALEU up to 20% | 40-year licence application | Announced Sep 28, 2026 | Applied; acceptance review | — |
| Uranium prices | Cameco series | Term $96.50/lb; spot $89.63/lb | Term above 2007 peak | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end) | — |
2. SMR project progress
Chapter 1 summarises the month; this chapter follows the reactors behind it. One US construction permit was issued in the window (Clinch River, Sep 29, 2026); the other projects moved through applications, contractor changes and test criticalities. The table keeps each instrument apart: a construction permit, a design approval, a DOE authorization and an environmental assessment are different things.
2.1 Projects at a glance (as of Oct 24, 2026)
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVA Clinch River Unit 1 (Tennessee) | BWRX-300, 300 MWe; NRC construction permit | Sep 29, 2026 | Permit issued; no build decision | GE Vernova Hitachi; ENR |
| OPG Darlington Unit 1 (Ontario) | BWRX-300, 300 MWe, first of 4; CNSC licence to construct | Apr 2025; operating-licence application Mar 2026 | Under construction; licence to operate under review | GE Vernova Hitachi |
| Blue Energy, Port of Victoria Unit 1 (Texas) | BWRX-300; NRC construction permit application, part 1 | Sep 2026; Federal Register Oct 8 | Applied | GE Vernova Hitachi; NRC |
| TerraPower Kemmerer Unit 1 (Wyoming) | Natrium, 345 MWe (500 MWe with storage); NRC construction permit | Mar 2026 | Issued; under construction | WNA; Innovation Attorney |
| Kairos Hermes 2 (Tennessee) | 2 x 35 MWt, 50 MWe; NRC construction permits | Permits Nov 2024; ground broken Apr 17, 2026 | Under construction | GO-IBR; Innovation Attorney |
| Dow / X-energy Long Mott (Texas) | 4 x 80 MWe Xe-100 = 320 MWe; construction permit application | Mar 2025 | Under review; no decision reported by Oct 22 | WNA; GO-IBR |
| Holtec Palisades SMR-300 (Michigan) | 2 units, capacity not stated; construction permit application, part 1 | Dec 2025; Federal Register Oct 8 and 15 | Applied | WNA; NRC |
| Oklo Aurora-INL (Idaho) | Up to 75 MW; DOE authorization, not an NRC licence | DOE PDSA approval, June 2026 | Pre-construction approvals | ANS; 24/7 Wall St. |
| NuScale US460 | 6 x 77 MWe = 462 MWe; NRC standard design approval | May 2025 | Approved design; no permit | GO-IBR; Japanese-language review |
| Rolls-Royce SMR, ČEZ Temelín (Czechia) | 470 MWe; environmental impact assessment filed | Date not stated | EIA under review, due end-2027 | ČEZ (via trade press) |
| DOE Reactor Pilot Program | 4 zero-power criticalities Jun 4 to Jul 4, plus Oklo Groves Aug 5 | 2026 | Critical (test reactors) | ANS; Voltgrid |
2.2 Clinch River: the one new permit
On Sep 29, 2026 the NRC issued the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) a construction permit for Clinch River Unit 1, a 300 MWe GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 near Oak Ridge. It is the first US permit for the design. It is a Part 50 instrument building on TVA's 2019 Early Site Permit, and a separate operating licence is needed before fuel loading.
The permit is not a build decision. According to ENR, TVA says nuclear construction has not begun, no new construction packages or long-lead orders followed, its board must still approve a final commitment, and no start date exists. Board funding is $200 million (2022) + $150 million (Aug 2024) = $350 million, against up to $400 million of DOE cost-shared funding selected in Dec 2025. TVA did not reaffirm its earlier 2032 operating target, and cost-sharing talks were still open.
The filing date conflicts: April 2025 per GE Vernova Hitachi and ETF Database, May 2025 per Power Engineering and the Innovation Attorney. Both give a 14-month review, four months ahead of the 18-month schedule (18 - 4 = 14). April 2025 to Sep 29, 2026 is about 17 months, so the 14 months must run from docketing, which the material does not date. Clocks therefore differ by project:
| Permit (NRC, Part 50) | Filed | Review reported | Against the 18-month EO 14300 ceiling | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch River Unit 1 | May 2025 | 14 months from formal review start | 4 months inside | Innovation Attorney |
| Kemmerer Unit 1 | Mar 2024 | About 24 months | 24 - 18 = 6 months over | Innovation Attorney |
| Hermes 2 | Not stated | Just over 12 months (permits Nov 2024) | Inside | Innovation Attorney |
GO-IBR says Kemmerer's staff review took under 18 months, a different clock (staff review, not filing-to-permit).
The same design advances elsewhere. In Ontario, the Canadian regulator issued Ontario Power Generation (OPG) a licence to construct in April 2025, and OPG applied for the licence to operate Unit 1 in March 2026. Construction Briefing (Oct 12) reports the basemat finished and grid connection targeted by end-2030; aggregator Green Stocks Research says first power 2029. We follow the dated 2030 figure, though neither is an OPG statement. In Texas, Blue Energy filed part one of an NRC permit application for a BWRX-300 in Sep; the Federal Register listed it on Oct 8.
Clinch River turned a regulatory milestone into a permit in hand, but TVA has no build commitment, no start date and no cost figure. Of the BWRX-300 projects, only Darlington is being built.
2.3 Natrium, Hermes, Long Mott and the rest of the queue
TerraPower Natrium, Kemmerer Unit 1. The NRC permit came in March 2026, the first for a commercial non-light-water reactor in over 40 years. The day differs (Mar 4; Mar 9). Nuclear Engineering International (NEI) says April, but Infraday dates TerraPower's announced construction start to Apr 23, which likely explains it. We follow March. The plant is a 345 MWe sodium-cooled reactor with molten-salt storage lifting output to 500 MWe for over five hours, a $4 billion project with up to $2 billion of federal cost share. TerraPower still targets completion in 2030 and operation in 2031, against an original 2028 operating target. That is 2031 - 2028 = 3 years of slip, which NEI attributes to lost commercial HALEU supply.
In the window, NEI reported on Sep 24 that TerraPower is replacing Bechtel as lead contractor after they could not agree terms and pricing for the next phase. Bechtel stays to finish the Sodium Test and Fill Facility enclosure and issued a WARN notice for up to 200 Virginia jobs from November. TerraPower says the schedule is unaffected, and no replacement is named. On Oct 14 Curtiss-Wright said it installed the Stage 1 training simulator. On Oct 15 Bill Gates and officials from three states toured the site; TerraPower says the reactor excavation is about halfway to its 120-foot depth. TerraPower told the NRC on July 22 it plans a Part 50 operating-licence application by March 2028.
Other NRC-track projects.
- Kairos Hermes 2: ground broken Apr 17, 2026, for a 50 MWe plant supplying TVA and Google data centres; the original plan was about 20 MWe. No window news in the material.
- Dow / X-energy Long Mott: the NRC aims for an 18.5-month review and no decision had been reported by Oct 22. Docketing and target dates are not in the material.
- Holtec Palisades SMR-300: Federal Register notices on Oct 8 and 15 cover the two-unit phased application. Full construction waits for the existing unit's restart (see Chapter 3).
- NuScale: the 77 MWe design has a May 2025 NRC standard design approval, which GO-IBR notes "is not a permit to build". No permit application appears in the material.
- Rolls-Royce SMR: the 470 MWe design has no construction permit. ČEZ filed its Temelín environmental assessment (date not stated), due to finish by end-2027, with operation in the second half of the 2030s; a UK final investment decision is expected in 2029. A £1.4 billion supplier programme for three UK reactors was reported Oct 12 (UK Wylfa context in Chapter 4).
2.4 DOE pilot programme: criticality is not a plant
DOE authorization is a separate route from an NRC licence; no pilot reactor can be deployed commercially without the NRC. Four reached criticality by the July 4 goal. All are before the window, so context only:
| Reactor | Design | Criticality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antares Mark-0 (INL) | Sodium heat-pipe, TRISO | Jun 4, 2026 | ANS |
| Valar Ward 250 (Utah) | High-temperature gas | Jun 18, 2026 | ANS |
| Deployable Energy Unity (INL) | 1 MWe gas-cooled | Jul 1, 2026 | ANS |
| Aalo-X (INL) | 10 MWe sodium-cooled | Jul 4, 2026 | CTAIO |
| Oklo Groves (Texas) | 15 MWt water-cooled isotope reactor | Aug 5, 2026 | Voltgrid, via POWER |
These were zero-power or very low-power tests; Valar reached 10 kWt on Jun 22. Radiant's 1 MWe Kaleidos missed the deadline. Sources conflict on its fuel loading (Jul 1 at INL; shipped in Aug) but agree no criticality had been reported by mid-Oct. Oklo's Aurora-INL had its preliminary safety analysis approved by DOE; the final analysis, readiness reviews and startup authorization remain. 24/7 Wall St. estimates first power in late 2027 to early 2028. NRC's Oct 22 rule on DOE demonstration data belongs to Chapter 4.
3. Technology companies and nuclear power
Chapter 2 followed reactors from application to permit; this chapter follows the technology-company money that enlarges operating plants and revives closed ones.
3.1 Agreements and restarts at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google–Constellation PPA | 890 MW uprates, 11 units, 20 years; price not disclosed | Oct 6, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Google–Constellation supply | 2,700 MW, existing PJM fleet, 15 years | Oct 6, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Amazon–Constellation PPA | 690 MW, Calvert Cliffs, 20 years; price not disclosed | Sep 30, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Palisades restart | 800 MW; fuel loading paused | Aug 30 / Oct 13, 2026 | Delayed | ANS, mlive |
| Crane restart | 835 MW, Microsoft, 20 years | Sep 2024 deal | Pending | Green Stocks Research |
| Duke ACE tariff MOUs | Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nucor | Date not stated | MOUs signed | ANS |
3.2 Constellation turns two tech contracts into 1,080 MW of uprates
On Sep 30, 2026, Constellation said Amazon had agreed a 20-year PPA for 690 MW from the 1,790 MW Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland. About 190 MW is a new uprate due between 2030 and 2032, and the deal enables more than $3 billion of investment. The rest is existing output: 690 − 190 = 500 MW. After the uprate the plant is 1,980 MW, so Amazon's share is 690 ÷ 1,980 ≈ 35%. The power still flows to the PJM grid, not to an Amazon data centre, and a separate retail supply agreement covers Amazon's PJM operations. No price or delivery start date was disclosed. Constellation says the contract gives it the revenue certainty to relicense the plant, whose units expire in 2034 and 2036.
On Oct 6, 2026, Google and Constellation announced a 20-year PPA for 890 MW of new capacity from uprates at 11 Constellation-owned units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, backed by more than $4.3 billion of Constellation investment. Constellation puts the first uprate at 2028; Google's blog, via POWER, says all 890 MW will be online before the end of 2032. We read these as first unit and last unit, not a conflict. A second contract, a 15-year supply agreement for 2,700 MW of the existing PJM fleet, keeps those plants economic without removing them from the grid. Google therefore has 890 + 2,700 = 3,590 MW under contract.
Price is undisclosed for both deals. CEO Joe Dominguez, quoted via the New York Times, says such projects "require a different price point than the market trades at". Dividing $4.3 billion by 890 MW gives about $4.8 million per MW (4,300 ÷ 890 = 4.83); this is our arithmetic on Constellation's investment, not a contract price. Constellation had not confirmed the sites. ANS reports Braidwood, Byron, LaSalle, Quad Cities, Limerick and Salem.
In this window technology companies paid for 1,080 MW of uprates (890 + 190, POWER's tally) at operating plants, arriving from 2028. The SMR commitments in the same material run to 2032 to 2035.
3.3 Restarts: Palisades is paused, Crane and Duane Arnold are queued
Palisades (Holtec, Michigan, 800 MW). Fuel loading began Aug 30, 2026. mlive reports that an irradiated assembly tipped that day and has blocked loading since, and that Holtec did not disclose it for several weeks. ANS reports Holtec acknowledged the pause by Sep 25, judging it below NRC reporting thresholds. The assembly sits at about 30 degrees, and Holtec says the fuel rods and cladding are intact. Holtec filed a licence amendment request on Sep 30; on Oct 13 the NRC issued a one-time amendment under "exigent circumstances", 13 days later, letting a custom device move the assembly to the spent fuel pool. It must be implemented within 10 days, by Oct 23. The material does not say whether the lift has happened, and the NRC's own review remains open. Holtec did not reaffirm an end-2026 return to service; earlier reports say it is contracted to supply power by March 2027.
Crane (Constellation, Pennsylvania, formerly Three Mile Island 1). Microsoft's 20-year agreement dates from September 2024. Sources give 835 MW and 880 MWe (World Nuclear Association, WNA); we follow 835 MW as the contract figure. Target year is 2027 per Maryland Matters and Meticulous Research and 2027 to 2028 per WNA, which we follow as the wider range. ANS headlines show NRC steps (an environmental assessment on Sep 29 and a hearing notice, date not stated). A $1 billion DOE loan closed in Nov 2025 (Meticulous Research).
Duane Arnold (NextEra, Iowa, 615 MW). Google's 25-year agreement dates from Oct 2025, with restart targeted for early 2029. A DOE loan of up to $1.9 billion was announced Sep 8, 2026, before our window.
3.4 SMR offtake and utility MOUs: mostly commitments
Per WNA, Meta announced up to 6.6 GWe by 2035 in January 2026: 20-year Vistra deals for 2,176 MWe, two TerraPower Natrium units totalling 690 MWe by 2032, and a 1.2 GWe Oklo campus. The itemised parts sum to 2,176 + 690 + 1,200 = 4,066 MW; the remainder is not itemised in the material. One source calls the Oklo deal a prepayment and the TerraPower deal funding plus rights to energy.
Kairos is the only advanced-reactor developer in the material with a utility PPA: up to 50 MWe from Hermes 2 to the TVA grid for Google, announced Aug 18, 2025. According to Tomorrow's World Today, Amazon, X-energy and AEP signed for 12 Xe-100 reactors of 80 MW (12 × 80 = 960 MW) in Indiana, with Amazon funding development and buying the power; the page gives no date or price. Duke's MOUs with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nucor propose tariffs to fund new nuclear and storage, not power purchases, with no capacity or date stated.
4. National policies
Chapter 3 followed technology buyers signing for power; this chapter covers the national rules and programmes that decide whether those reactors can be licensed and financed. Status is judged against 2026-10-24.
4.1 Policy at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRC rule on DOE/DoW-authorised designs | Review targets ~18 / ~12 months | Approved Oct 22 | Final, not in effect | ANS |
| NRC proposed rule, 91 FR 60702 | 89 pages | Sep 24; comments close Nov 9 | Proposed | Federal Register |
| NRC Part 53 | $152M net averted cost | Effective Apr 29 | In effect | Innovation Attorney |
| NRC Part 57 (microreactors) | Comments closed Jun 15 | Announced Apr 24 | Proposed, not final | — |
| AP1000 design certification renewal | Renewal and update | Oct 14 | Approved | ANS |
| US–Korea framework | Up to $120B, 8 units | Sep 30 | Announced, non-binding | Neutron Bytes |
| EIB loan to Steady Energy | EUR 40M | Reported Oct 14 | Announced | IIR |
| Czech Temelín SMR environmental assessment | 470 MWe design | Date not stated | Submitted | WNN |
| China State Council | 8 units, >CNY 170B | Jul 31 | Approved (context) | BigGo |
| India SHANTI Act rules | Caps INR 100–3,000 crore | Late Aug | Draft | Yellow Haze; Speyside |
Rules arrived on schedule; money is still a framework. The NRC's Oct 22 final rule is dated and firm, while the month's largest number, up to $120 billion of Korean financing, is non-binding.
4.2 United States: the NRC rulebook and federal programmes
On Oct 22, 2026 the NRC finalised a rule letting applicants use analyses and test data from reactors previously authorised by DOE or the Department of War (DoW). It adds §50.43(f) to Part 50 and amends §53.440(a)(1) in Part 53. It is an evidence route, not a licence: nothing in it allows the NRC to forgo independent review. Chairman Ho Nieh set targets of about 18 months for first-of-a-kind and 12 months for nth-of-a-kind reviews.
Sources conflict on timing. The Federal Register public-inspection copy schedules publication for Oct 26; ANS, citing the NRC's rulemaking list, says Oct 28. We follow the Federal Register: Oct 26 + 30 days = Nov 25, 2026 (Oct 28 would give Nov 27).
The wider rulebook is uneven. Part 53 took effect Apr 29, 2026 (published Mar 30, 91 FR 15696), but no Part 53 review is complete, and both 2026 construction permits were issued under Part 50 (see Chapter 2). Part 57 was still unfinalised on Oct 22. On Sep 24 the NRC also proposed "Regulatory Enhancements for Reactor Licensing, Decommissioning, and Operational Oversight", touching nine parts of 10 CFR; its substance is not in the material. Executive Order 14300 (May 23, 2025) gave 18 months to rewrite the rules: May 23, 2025 + 18 months = Nov 23, 2026. Comments close Nov 9, 14 days earlier, so in our reading that rule cannot be final by then; the chairman has said some rules will land late. On Oct 14 the NRC also approved the AP1000 design certification renewal, which is not a permit to build.
Programme money is mostly conditional. DOE announced on Jun 23 conditional loans of up to $17.5 billion for long-lead equipment for up to 10 AP1000s; WNA counts five two-unit projects, and 5 × 2 = 10 agrees. The Army's Janus programme plans up to $2.2 billion over fiscal 2027–2031.
The US–Korea framework was announced Sep 30, per a GlobeNewswire release. Neutron Bytes, summarising the Commerce Department announcement, reports six AP1000s and two APR1400s on federal sites, $120 billion of Korean funding ($100 billion construction plus $20 billion contingency), a $10 billion advance by year-end, and all eight under construction by 2030. WNA calls it non-binding. No site or utility is named. $100 billion ÷ 8 ≈ $12.5 billion per unit (our arithmetic).
4.3 UK and Europe: finance and regulators lead
The material holds no new UK decision in the window. Born to Engineer reports Arup's appointment by Great British Energy – Nuclear for Wylfa engineering, worth up to £19.5 million (date not stated); three 470 MWe Rolls-Royce SMRs give 3 × 470 = 1,410 MWe, which it also calls "up to 1.5 GWe". WNN expects a final investment decision in 2029. WNA's January projection puts 14,460 MWe of the UK's 24,000 MWe 2050 total (60%) under "government target" with no project attached.
ČEZ submitted the environmental impact assessment for a Rolls-Royce SMR at Temelín, expected to finish by end-2027. ČEZ chose the design in October 2024 for up to 3 GW and holds 20% of Rolls-Royce SMR.
At EU level, the European Investment Bank lent EUR 40 million (US$46 million) to Finland's Steady Energy for the 50 MW heat-only LDR-50, its first SMR investment, reported Oct 14. IIR counts 43 European SMR projects worth US$147 billion. The Commission expects SMRs to add 17–53 GW by 2050 (estimate). CATF says new fission's eligibility under the 2028–2034 EU budget still faces opposition. Fuel policy sits in Chapter 5.
4.4 China, Japan and India
China. A State Council meeting on Jul 31 approved four projects with eight units and over CNY 170 billion, per BigGo. The 15th Five-Year Plan targets 110 GWe by 2030. WNA (Oct 8) shows 65,085 MWe operable plus 39,755 MWe under construction = 104,840 MWe, 5,160 MWe short; the net or gross basis is not stated. BigGo's 135 GW counts approved units, so we follow WNA for status. No new approval falls in the window.
Japan. The material shows no in-window policy event. Context: Chūbu Electric withdrew its Hamaoka 3 and 4 restart application on Sep 14 after a seismic-data scandal.
India. DAE's Jul 23 replies target 100 GWe by 2047 from 8.78 GW: 22 GW by 2031–32, NPCIL adds 32 GW (22 + 32 = 54), others 46 GW. The SHANTI Act's draft rules came out in late August and the foreign-investment policy awaits finalisation. Operator liability caps run from INR 100 crore to INR 3,000 crore by reactor size, though the source's bands overlap at 50–150 MW. The draft drops supplier liability under Section 17(b).
The pattern: the US has finished rulebooks and unfunded frameworks, Europe has finance, and India's rulebook is still draft.
5. Fuel and supply chain
Chapter 4 covered the rules that decide which reactors can be licensed; this chapter covers the fuel they will burn, which this month was priced and financed well ahead of the plants it will serve.
5.1 Fuel and supply chain at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U3O8 spot | $89.63/lb | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end average) | Cameco via Farmonaut |
| U3O8 long-term (term) | $96.50/lb, above the 2007 peak of $95 | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end average) | Cameco figures, via a GlobeNewswire commentary |
| General Matter Paducah enrichment licence | 40-year licence, 10 CFR Parts 40 and 70; LEU up to 5%, HALEU up to 20% | Dated Sep 27, announced Sep 28, 2026 | Applied; NRC acceptance review | NNN |
| Centrus buys Westerman | about $116M | Oct 19, 2026 | Announced | Credence Research |
| Centrus DOE Piketon task order | $900M base, up to $1.07B with options | Awarded Jan 6; contract signed Jul 1, 2026 | Signed | Credence; Kalkine |
| Westinghouse LEU+ fuel plant | $1B, fuel up to 8% U-235, Columbia, S.C. | Oct 23, 2026 | Announced | ANS |
| Orano Oak Ridge (Project Ike) | $900M DOE award; NRC 12-month review target | Jan 2026 | Under review | WNA; NNN |
| Russian LEU imports | Waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028 | Ban in effect since Aug 11, 2024 | In effect | DOE; Oregon Group |
5.2 Uranium prices: term is above its old peak, spot is not
Uranium has no exchange, so every public price is an average of broker quotes. Cameco's month-end series (UxC and TradeTech averages) puts the long-term price at $96.50/lb U3O8 at the end of August and of September 2026, the highest nominal month-end in Cameco data back to 1996. The spot price ended September at $89.63. Sprott's update for August, a month earlier, had spot at $89.54 and TradeTech at $89.75, so spot has been flat near $90 for two months. Trading Economics showed about $90 on Oct 14, but derives it from a contract for difference, so it is an estimate, not a settlement. No October month-end print is in the material.
| Cameco month-end (via Farmonaut) | Spot, $/lb | Term, $/lb |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 82.63 | 83.00 |
| Jan 2026 | 94.28 | 89.00 |
| Sep 2026 | 89.63 | 96.50 |
Term minus spot is 96.50 − 89.63 = $6.87/lb, a 7.7% premium. Term is up 96.50 − 83.00 = $13.50 (+16%) on a year earlier. Spot is still below its current-cycle peak of $107 and its 2007 high of $136 (Sprott via NucNet).
The headline does not reach the P&L quickly. Cameco's Q2 realised price was $67.79/lb (+18% year on year), or 67.79 ÷ 96.50 = 70% of the term price. Kazatomprom's H1 2026 realised price was $67.88 against an average month-end spot of $86.83. US utilities paid $58.46/lb on 2025 deliveries (EIA): 87% of volume came under term contracts at $55.91 and 13% at spot-contract prices of $76.01, and 0.87 × 55.91 + 0.13 × 76.01 ≈ 58.5 checks. Cameco's president said market-related contracts now carry floors "in the high 70s escalated" and ceilings "160 escalated" (call of Jul 31). Cameco reports Q3 on Oct 30, which is still ahead.
5.3 Enrichment and HALEU: DOE money, but first output is 2028 or later
The big picture is concentration. By WNA's table Rosatom holds 29,133 thousand SWU/yr of 68,076 in 2025, or 29,133 ÷ 68,076 = 43%.
| Capacity, thousand SWU/yr (WNA) | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Rosatom | 29,133 | 29,810 |
| Urenco | 17,300 | 18,000 |
| CNNC (assumed) | 13,789 | 18,230 |
| Orano | 7,500 | 10,000 |
| World total | 68,076 | 77,784 |
DOE awarded $900M task orders to each of Centrus, General Matter and Orano in January 2026. Centrus reported Q2 revenue of $176.1M (+14%) and a $4.5B backlog against $3.8B at year-end 2025 (+$0.7B, +18%) on Aug 6, before the window. In the window it announced the Westerman purchase on Oct 19: about $95M cash plus $21M equity, 95 + 21 = $116M. Westerman builds centrifuge casings, and Centrus says the first new centrifuges go online in Ohio in 2029 (according to Credence Research). A $500M public offering priced in September, per Breakwise quoting Centrus's 8-K title. The older HALEU Operation Contract was extended only to Sep 30 for $15.0M of maintenance and storage; DOE said it does not intend further options and the FY2027 budget has no funds. The material does not say what happened after Sep 30. Demand is firm: X-energy signed in August, Radiant and Antares in September, Oklo a June letter of intent, and Piketon has produced more than 1,900 kg of HALEU.
General Matter applied to the NRC for a Paducah licence. NRC staff were walked through it in closed sessions scheduled for Oct 14–15, and the NRC is deciding whether to accept it for review. Two caveats matter. First, this is a core licence; a HALEU amendment is planned for next year. Second, the enrichment technology is redacted as a trade secret. The site is "100 acres" in the company's 2025 lease announcement and about 107 acres in the application; we follow the application. General Matter asked the NRC to act on a pre-licence foundation exemption by Nov 6. Global Laser Enrichment applied in July 2025, was accepted by the NRC (per Visiongain), and its output is committed to Cameco under an exclusive offtake. Both Paducah firms target production by 2030. Orano is adding 2.5M SWU at Tricastin, with first modules in 2028 and full commissioning in 2030. Urenco broke ground in August on a 2.1M SWU expansion at Eunice, New Mexico, to exceed 7M SWU by 2036.
Fuel is now the best-funded link in the chain, yet no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028, and the Russian waiver window closes on Jan 1, 2028.
5.4 Russian supply, conversion and fabrication
The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act took effect on Aug 11, 2024, with DOE able to grant waivers. Russia still supplied 26% of the enrichment services bought by US operators in 2025, up from about 20%, and waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028. Visiongain adds that the UK banned Russian uranium from May 2026. Centrus names Russian restrictions on its TENEX supply as a significant risk. The Oct 16 waiver of tariffs under the Graham Act concerns sanctions tariffs; the material does not link it to the LEU ban, so we treat the ban as unchanged.
Conversion is thin. Honeywell's Metropolis Works is the only US commercial converter (site page updated Jul 28). NANO Nuclear agreed on Oct 1 to buy deconversion assets in New Mexico for $9.5M cash plus $4.0M stock, or $13.5M in total, subject to NRC consent. The material has no SWU or conversion price.
Fabrication is moving. Westinghouse announced a $1B LEU+ plant on Oct 23. TRISO-X finished the structure of its Oak Ridge TX-1 plant in September, sized for up to 11 Xe-100 reactors. The NRC approved Framatome TRISO fabrication at Richland in June.
6. Timelines and risks
Chapters 2 to 5 followed projects, contracts, rules and fuel; this chapter turns them into expected timelines, risks and a dated watch-list. It uses only facts from those chapters and describes dated events, not forecasts.
6.1 Expected timelines and where they can slip
Most targets in the material sit between 2027 and 2031. Crane is targeted for 2027 to 2028 and Duane Arnold for early 2029. The first Constellation uprate comes in 2028, with all 890 MW online before the end of 2032. Kemmerer targets completion in 2030 and operation in 2031, Darlington grid connection by end-2030, and a UK final investment decision for Rolls-Royce SMR is expected in 2029. Meta's two Natrium units are due by 2032.
Schedule. TVA has no start date and did not reaffirm its 2032 target. Kemmerer already slipped from 2028 to 2031, and TerraPower says the Bechtel change does not alter the schedule. Holtec did not reaffirm an end-2026 return to service at Palisades, while earlier reports say it is contracted to supply power by March 2027.
Cost. TVA's board has committed $350M against up to $400M of DOE cost sharing, and no total cost is given. Constellation's $4.3 billion for 890 MW works out to about $4.8 million per MW, our arithmetic, not a contract price.
Fuel. Kemmerer's slip is attributed to lost commercial HALEU supply, the HALEU Operation Contract was extended only to Sep 30, and Russia supplied 26% of US enrichment purchases before waivers end on Jan 1, 2028.
Regulation. No Part 53 review is complete. Kemmerer's permit took about 24 months against Clinch River's 14, and the NRC's own proposed rule would not be final by the Nov 23 deadline in our reading.
Public. The material holds no polling. The one trust signal is mlive's report that Holtec did not disclose the Palisades incident for several weeks.
Permits, rules and contracts arrived on schedule this month, but the plants they enable have no committed start dates; the first dated deliveries are uprates in 2028 and fuel capacity not before 2028.
What comes first. The nearest dated steps are procedural. The Federal Register is scheduled to publish the NRC final rule on Oct 26, which gives an effective date of about Nov 25 (Oct 26 + 30 days); ANS cites Oct 28, which would give Nov 27. Cameco reports Q3 on Oct 30 and General Matter has asked the NRC to act on a foundation exemption by Nov 6. Comments on the NRC's proposed rule close on Nov 9, two weeks before the EO 14300 deadline of Nov 23. For Palisades, the NRC amendment had to be implemented by Oct 23, and the material does not say whether the lift has happened, so that status stays open until a report appears.
Where the evidence is thin. Several items carry no date in the material: the Temelín filing, the Amazon, X-energy and AEP Indiana agreement, and the Duke tariff MOUs. Treat them as announced or reported, not as scheduled. Cost per megawatt, the Nov 23 and Nov 25 dates and the Calvert Cliffs share are our own arithmetic, not source figures.
6.2 What changed and what it means, by reader
| Reader | What changed | Implication | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | Clinch River got its permit on Sep 29, but the board has not approved a build commitment; Calvert Cliffs gains a 190 MW uprate for 2030 to 2032 | A permit is not a build decision; a separate operating licence is still required, while uprates are the nearer capacity | — |
| Technology companies | Google and Constellation signed 890 MW plus 2,700 MW; Amazon signed 690 MW; prices were not disclosed | Near-term power comes from uprates and existing plants, while SMR offtake commitments run to 2032 to 2035 | — |
| Developers | The NRC approved a final rule on Oct 22 letting applicants cite DOE and DoW test data; Part 53 has no completed review | The rule is an evidence route, not a licence, and independent NRC review remains | — |
| Fuel buyers and suppliers | Term uranium rose to $96.50/lb, above the 2007 peak; Centrus bought Westerman for about $116M; General Matter applied for a licence | Pricing and financing run ahead of supply, and no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028 | — |
| Investors (information only) | The Korea framework offers up to $120B for eight units but is non-binding; DOE loans of up to $17.5B are conditional | Separate signed contracts from frameworks and conditional loans when reading headlines | — |
6.3 Key dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect"; later dates are "Upcoming".
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | NRC Part 53 takes effect | In effect | The Innovation Attorney |
| Sep 29, 2026 | NRC issues Clinch River Unit 1 construction permit | In effect | GE Vernova Hitachi |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Amazon–Constellation 690 MW PPA announced; US–Korea framework announced | In effect | Constellation; Neutron Bytes |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Google–Constellation 890 MW PPA announced | In effect | Constellation |
| Oct 13, 2026 | NRC exigent amendment for Palisades assembly removal | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 22, 2026 | NRC approves final rule on DOE/DoW-authorised designs | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Palisades amendment implementation deadline; Westinghouse $1B plant announced | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Federal Register publication of the NRC final rule (scheduled) | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Cameco Q3 report | Upcoming | TIKR |
| Nov 6, 2026 | General Matter asks NRC to act on a foundation exemption | Upcoming | NNN |
| Nov 9, 2026 | Comments close on NRC proposed rule 91 FR 60702 | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Nov 23, 2026 | EO 14300 18-month rule deadline (computed) | Upcoming | GO-IBR |
| Nov 25, 2026 | NRC final rule effective (computed from Oct 26) | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| End-2026 | $10B Korean advance contemplated under the framework | Upcoming | Neutron Bytes |
| Mar 2027 | Holtec reported as contracted to supply Palisades power | Upcoming | ANS |
| End-2027 | Temelín environmental assessment due to finish | Upcoming | WNN |
| Jan 1, 2028 | Russian LEU import waivers must end | Upcoming | Oregon Group |
| 2028 | First Constellation uprate; Orano first Tricastin modules | Upcoming | Constellation; WNA |
| 2030–2031 | Kemmerer completion (2030) and operation (2031); Darlington grid connection by end-2030 | Upcoming | NEI; Construction Briefing |
7. References
This document draws on the following 68 sources, listed in the order they are first cited.
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- Federal Nuclear Regulator OKs TVA to Build First US Small Modular Reactor | Engineering News-Record — enr.com
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- Bechtel out as Natrium EPC - Nuclear Engineering International — neimagazine.com
- Google and Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement to Bring 890 MW of New Nuclear Capacity to PJM Grid as Part of Long-Term Power Deal — constellationenergy.com
- Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement Adding 190 Megawatts of Nuclear Capacity at Calvert Cliffs — constellationenergy.com
- Google Deal Backs 890 MW of Constellation Nuclear Uprates at 11 PJM Reactors — powermag.com
- Incident pauses Palisades fuel loading; plant connected to switchyard -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- NRC allows alternate approach to removing tilted fuel assembly at Palisades -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- Holtec Palisades can try unusual fix to nuclear fuel loading mishap - mlive.com — mlive.com
- NRC Finalizes Rule Allowing Reactor Applicants to Use DOE, DOW Demonstration Data — powermag.com
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- South Korea, U.S. Ink Massive Nuclear Energy Plan | Neutron Bytes — neutronbytes.com
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- Record Contract Prices Put America’s Domestic Uranium Gap Back in Focus — bnnbloomberg.ca
- Cameco’s Uranium Earnings Fell Nearly 40% in Q2 Despite 18% Higher Prices. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2030 | TIKR.com — tikr.com
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- Uranium Enrichment - World Nuclear Association — world-nuclear.org
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- General Matter walks NRC through Paducah enrichment license filing — nuclearnewsnetwork.com
- NRC Federal Register Notices – 2026 | Nuclear Regulatory Commission — nrc.gov
- NRC SMR Licensing 2026: Part 53 Final, Part 57 Proposed | GO-IBR — go-ibr.com
- New Reactors -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
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- Czech SMR environmental impact assessment submitted - World Nuclear News — world-nuclear-news.org
- The deadline arrives: Checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- NRC Final Rule Lets Reactor Applicants Cite DOE, DOW Test Data · Voltgrid News — voltgridnews.com
- Tennessee Valley Authority gets green light to build first BWRX-300 small modular reactor in the US — power-eng.com
- TVA Secures First SMR Construction Permit — etfdb.com
- Nuclear Power Stocks List: 68 Nuclear Energy Companies (2026) | GSR — greenstocksresearch.com
- Kemmerer Unit 1 — Natrium Demonstration Plant – Infraday | Infrastructure News, Projects & Events — infraday.com
- TerraPower CEO Says Kemmerer Nuclear Plant Will Attract Data Centers | Cowboy State Daily — cowboystatedaily.com
- Curtiss-Wright Installs Stage 1 Simulator at TerraPower’s Natrium Site in Kemmerer, WY — finance.yahoo.com
- Nuclear Microreactors for AI Data Centers (2026) | CTAIO — ctaio.dev
- OKLO Advances Regulatory Milestones to Support Nuclear Growth — finance.yahoo.com
- Constellation, Amazon Sign 20-Year Calvert Cliffs Nuclear PPA | Green Stocks Research — greenstocksresearch.com
- Duke partnering with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nucor on energy security -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- Large upgrade planned at Calvert Cliffs after power deal signed with Amazon - Maryland Matters — marylandmatters.org
- Google’s 20-Year $4.3 Billion Deal with Constellation to Uprate 11 Reactors | Neutron Bytes — neutronbytes.com
- Nuclear PPAs Market Outlook 2026–2038 | Meticulous Research — meticulousresearch.com
- Small Modular Reactor for a Data Centre: What It Takes — scienceshot.com
- Amazon Backs 12-Reactor Nuclear Power Plant in the U.S. - Tomorrow's World Today® — tomorrowsworldtoday.com
- Federal Register :: Regulatory Enhancements for Reactor Licensing, Decommissioning, and Operational Oversight — federalregister.gov
- Europe Makes its First SMR Investment — industrialinfo.com
- Nuclear power sector rallies against the market as global forecasts rise and China's installation peak converges — BigGo Finance — finance.biggo.com
- India Nuclear Energy Roadmap 2047: 100 GW Target Explained — yellowhaze.com
- India’s nuclear energy ambition: expanding the ambit — speyside-group.com
- Small Modular Reactor Wylfa: UK's First SMR Takes Shape | Born to Engineer — borntoengineer.com
- United Kingdom - World Nuclear Outlook Report - World Nuclear Association — world-nuclear.org
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- Advanced Nuclear Energy in Europe – Clean Air Task Force — catf.us
- Nuclear Power in China - World Nuclear Association — world-nuclear.org
- Japan’s Nuclear Power Plants in 2026 | Nippon.com — nippon.com
- Centrus Energy acquires centrifuge supplier Westerman for $116 million — credenceresearch.com
- Stock Near 52-Week Low, Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU) Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and HALEU Contract Updates — kalkine.com
- General Matter’s NRC license application materials publicly available -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- Russian Uranium Ban Waiver Guidance | Department of Energy — energy.gov
- Long-Term Uranium Price Hit All-Time High In August, Says Sprott — nucnet.org
- Breakwise — Written down before · a research demo — breakwise.io
- Top Small Modular Reactor Stocks for 2027: The Boring Reactor Wins — exoswan.com
- Panelists talk domestic enrichment expansion at Global 2026 -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire — ans.org
- Did Trump Lift Russia Sanctions? What the October 16 Waiver Changes — diplomacyandlaw.com
- US Uranium Supply Chain Map & List | Mining, Conversion, Enrichment, Fabrication & Storage (2026) — usnuclearpowerplants.com
- Energy companies and programs: status and news · The Techno Optimist — technooptimist.io