A permit was issued but nobody has committed to build: the month ran on permits, contracts and fuel prices
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, one US construction permit was issued, technology companies paid for uprates at operating plants, rule changes were finalised, and term uranium passed its 2007 peak. Every status is judged against Oct 24, 2026; items dated before Sep 24 are context.
Four conclusions that explain the month
A permit was issued, but nobody has committed to build
The NRC issued TVA a construction permit for Clinch River Unit 1 (a 300 MWe BWRX-300) on Sep 29, 2026, the first US permit for the design. TVA's board has not approved a final build commitment, no start date exists, and the 2032 operating target was not reaffirmed. Among BWRX-300 projects only Darlington in Ontario is under construction, with grid connection targeted by end-2030. At Kemmerer, TerraPower is replacing Bechtel as lead contractor while keeping its 2030 completion and 2031 operation targets, three years after the original 2028 plan.
Technology companies bought uprates and restarts, not new reactors
Google signed a 20-year PPA for 890 MW of uprates at 11 Constellation units on Oct 6, plus 2,700 MW of supply, and Amazon signed for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs on Sep 30; neither price was disclosed. New capacity totals 890 + 190 = 1,080 MW (POWER's tally), arriving from 2028. The Palisades restart is paused: an irradiated assembly tipped on Aug 30, and the NRC allowed a removal fix on Oct 13.
Rules are finished faster than money is committed
The NRC approved a final rule on Oct 22 that lets applicants cite test data from DOE- or Department of War-authorised reactors, with review targets of about 18 and 12 months. Part 53 has been in effect since Apr 29, but no Part 53 review is complete and both 2026 construction permits came under Part 50. The month's largest number, up to $120 billion of Korean financing for eight large reactors, is a non-binding framework.
Fuel is priced ahead of the plants, and new supply comes late
Long-term uranium ended September at $96.50 per lb, above the 2007 peak of $95, while spot was $89.63. DOE awarded $900M task orders to each of Centrus, General Matter and Orano, yet no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028. Russia supplied 26% of US enrichment purchases in 2025, and waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028.
Which instrument is it? Four things that are easy to confuse
Projects and deals at a glance
| Project or deal | Key figure | Instrument | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch River Unit 1 (Tennessee)TVA; GE Vernova Hitachi; NRC | 300 MWe BWRX-300 | Construction permit (NRC, Part 50) | Sep 29, 2026 | Permit issuedNo build decision | GE Vernova Hitachi; ENR |
| Kemmerer Unit 1 (Wyoming)TerraPower | 345 MWe (500 MWe with storage) | Construction permit (issued Mar 2026) | Lead contractor change reported Sep 24, 2026 | Under construction | NEI; Innovation Attorney |
| Google–Constellation PPAGoogle; Constellation | 890 MW uprates plus 2,700 MW supply | 20-year PPA and 15-year supply agreement | Oct 6, 2026 | SignedPrice not disclosed | Constellation |
| Amazon–Constellation PPAAmazon; Constellation | 690 MW (Calvert Cliffs) | 20-year PPA | Sep 30, 2026 | SignedPrice not disclosed | Constellation |
| Palisades restart (Michigan)Holtec; NRC | 800 MW | NRC exigent licence amendment to remove a tilted assembly | Oct 13, 2026 | Delayed; fuel loading paused | ANS; mlive |
| NRC rule on DOE and Department of War authorised designs | Review targets about 18 / 12 months | Final rule (an evidence route, not a licence) | Approved Oct 22, 2026 | Final, not yet in effect | ANS; Federal Register |
| US–Korea nuclear frameworkUS; Republic of Korea | Up to $120B, 8 large reactors | Framework (no contract) | Announced Sep 30, 2026 | AnnouncedNon-binding | Neutron Bytes |
| General Matter PaducahGeneral Matter; NRC | LEU up to 5%, HALEU up to 20% | 40-year NRC licence application (enrichment) | Announced Sep 28, 2026 | Applied; acceptance review | NNN |
| Uranium pricesCameco series | Term $96.50/lb; spot $89.63/lb | Market prices (broker-quote averages) | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end) | Cameco series, via Farmonaut |
One construction permit was issued; the rest of the SMR queue moved through applications, contractors and test criticalities
The table keeps each instrument apart: a construction permit, a design approval, a DOE authorization and an environmental assessment are different things. Filter by instrument to see which projects hold which.
Projects at a glance (as of Oct 24, 2026)
| Project | Key figure | Instrument | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVA Clinch River Unit 1 (Tennessee) | BWRX-300, 300 MWe | NRC construction permit | Sep 29, 2026 | Permit issuedNo build decision | GE Vernova Hitachi; ENR |
| OPG Darlington Unit 1 (Ontario) | BWRX-300, 300 MWe, first of 4 | CNSC licence to construct; licence to operate applied for | Apr 2025; operating-licence application Mar 2026 | Under constructionLicence to operate under review | GE Vernova Hitachi |
| Blue Energy, Port of Victoria Unit 1 (Texas) | BWRX-300 | NRC construction permit application, part 1 | Sep 2026; Federal Register Oct 8 | Applied | GE Vernova Hitachi; NRC |
| TerraPower Kemmerer Unit 1 (Wyoming) | Natrium, 345 MWe (500 MWe with storage) | NRC construction permit | Mar 2026 | Issued; under construction | WNA; Innovation Attorney |
| Kairos Hermes 2 (Tennessee) | 2 × 35 MWt, 50 MWe | NRC construction permits | Permits Nov 2024; ground broken Apr 17, 2026 | Under construction | GO-IBR; Innovation Attorney |
| Dow / X-energy Long Mott (Texas) | 4 × 80 MWe Xe-100 = 320 MWe | NRC construction permit application | Mar 2025 | Under reviewNo decision reported by Oct 22 | WNA; GO-IBR |
| Holtec Palisades SMR-300 (Michigan) | 2 units, capacity not stated | NRC construction permit application, part 1 | Dec 2025; Federal Register Oct 8 and 15 | Applied | WNA; NRC |
| Oklo Aurora-INL (Idaho) | Up to 75 MW | DOE authorization (not an NRC licence) | DOE preliminary safety analysis approved, June 2026 | Pre-construction approvals | ANS; 24/7 Wall St. |
| NuScale US460 | 6 × 77 MWe = 462 MWe | NRC standard design approval (not a permit to build) | May 2025 | Approved designNo permit | GO-IBR |
| Rolls-Royce SMR, ČEZ Temelín (Czechia) | 470 MWe | Environmental impact assessment filed | Date not stated | Under reviewDue end-2027 | ČEZ, via trade press |
| DOE Reactor Pilot Program | 4 zero-power criticalities Jun 4 to Jul 4, plus Oklo Groves Aug 5 | DOE authorization (not an NRC licence) | 2026 | Critical (test reactors) | ANS; Voltgrid |
TVA did not reaffirm its earlier 2032 operating target, and cost-sharing talks were still open. A separate operating licence is needed before fuel loading. The permit builds on TVA's 2019 Early Site Permit.
Review clocks differ by project (NRC, Part 50)
| Permit | Filed | Review reported | Against the 18-month ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch River Unit 1 | May 2025 | 14 months from formal review start | 4 months inside |
| Kemmerer Unit 1 | Mar 2024 | About 24 months | 24 − 18 = 6 months over |
| Hermes 2 | Not stated | Just over 12 months (permits Nov 2024) | Inside |
Source: The Innovation Attorney. The Clinch River filing date conflicts: April 2025 per GE Vernova Hitachi and ETF Database, May 2025 per Power Engineering and the Innovation Attorney; the table follows May. April 2025 to Sep 29, 2026 is about 17 months, so the 14 months must run from docketing, which the material does not date. GO-IBR says Kemmerer's staff review took under 18 months, a different clock.
Beyond Clinch River: Kemmerer, the rest of the queue and the DOE pilots
345 MWe sodium-cooled reactor with molten-salt storage lifting output to 500 MWe for over five hours, a $4 billion project with up to $2 billion of federal cost share (reported by NEI and a site report). The NRC permit came in March 2026, the first for a commercial non-light-water reactor in over 40 years (GO-IBR). The day differs (Mar 4 or Mar 9); NEI says April, which likely reflects the Apr 23 construction-start announcement. The page follows March.
TerraPower still targets completion in 2030 and operation in 2031, against an original 2028 operating target: 2031 − 2028 = 3 years. NEI attributes the slip to lost commercial HALEU supply. TerraPower told the NRC on Jul 22 it plans a Part 50 operating-licence application by March 2028.
Sep 24: NEI reported TerraPower is replacing Bechtel as lead contractor after they could not agree terms and pricing for the next phase. Bechtel stays to finish the Sodium Test and Fill Facility enclosure and issued a WARN notice for up to 200 Virginia jobs from November. TerraPower says the schedule is unaffected; no replacement is named.
Oct 14: Curtiss-Wright said it installed the Stage 1 training simulator. Oct 15: Bill Gates and officials from three states toured the site; TerraPower says the reactor excavation is about halfway to its 120-foot depth.
Ground broken Apr 17, 2026, for a 50 MWe plant supplying TVA and Google data centres (the original plan was about 20 MWe). No window news in the material.
The NRC aims for an 18.5-month review and no decision had been reported by Oct 22. Docketing and target dates are not in the material.
Federal Register notices on Oct 8 and 15 cover the two-unit phased application. Full construction waits for the existing unit's restart (see module 3).
Construction Briefing (Oct 12) reports the Darlington basemat finished and grid connection targeted by end-2030; an aggregator says first power 2029. The page follows the dated 2030 figure, though neither is an OPG statement. Blue Energy filed part one of an NRC permit application in Sep; the Federal Register listed it on Oct 8.
The 77 MWe design has a May 2025 NRC standard design approval, which GO-IBR notes "is not a permit to build". No permit application appears in the material.
The 470 MWe design has no construction permit. ČEZ filed its Temelín environmental assessment (date not stated), due to finish by end-2027, with operation in the second half of the 2030s; a UK final investment decision is expected in 2029. A £1.4 billion supplier programme for three UK reactors was reported Oct 12.
| Reactor | Design | Criticality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antares Mark-0 (INL) | Sodium heat-pipe, TRISO | Jun 4, 2026 | ANS |
| Valar Ward 250 (Utah) | High-temperature gas | Jun 18, 2026 | ANS |
| Deployable Energy Unity (INL) | 1 MWe gas-cooled | Jul 1, 2026 | ANS |
| Aalo-X (INL) | 10 MWe sodium-cooled | Jul 4, 2026 | CTAIO |
| Oklo Groves (Texas) | 15 MWt water-cooled isotope reactor | Aug 5, 2026 | Voltgrid, via POWER |
DOE authorization is a separate route from an NRC licence; no pilot reactor can be deployed commercially without the NRC. Four reached criticality by the July 4 goal; all are before the window, so this is context only. These were zero-power or very low-power tests: Valar reached 10 kWt on Jun 22.
Radiant's 1 MWe Kaleidos missed the deadline; sources conflict on its fuel loading (Jul 1 at INL, or shipped in Aug) but agree no criticality had been reported by mid-Oct. Oklo's Aurora-INL had its preliminary safety analysis approved by DOE; the final analysis, readiness reviews and startup authorization remain. 24/7 Wall St. estimates first power in late 2027 to early 2028 (estimate).
Technology companies paid for 1,080 MW of uprates and restarts, not for new reactors
Module 2 followed reactors from application to permit; this module follows the technology-company money that enlarges operating plants and revives closed ones. Signed contracts are kept apart from reported deals and memoranda.
Agreements and restarts at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google–Constellation PPA | 890 MW uprates, 11 units, 20 years; price not disclosed | Oct 6, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Google–Constellation supply | 2,700 MW, existing PJM fleet, 15 years | Oct 6, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Amazon–Constellation PPA | 690 MW, Calvert Cliffs, 20 years; price not disclosed | Sep 30, 2026 | Signed | Constellation |
| Palisades restart | 800 MW; fuel loading paused | Aug 30 / Oct 13, 2026 | Delayed | ANS; mlive |
| Crane restart | 835 MW, Microsoft, 20 years | Sep 2024 deal | Pending | Green Stocks Research |
| Duke ACE tariff MOUs | Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nucor (tariff proposals, not power purchases) | Date not stated | MOUs signed | ANS |
Deal by deal
Constellation puts the first uprate at 2028; Google's blog, via POWER, says all 890 MW will be online before the end of 2032. The page reads these as first unit and last unit, not a conflict.
Price is undisclosed. CEO Joe Dominguez, quoted via the New York Times, says such projects "require a different price point than the market trades at". 4,300 ÷ 890 ≈ $4.8 million per MW is our arithmetic on Constellation's investment, not a contract price. Constellation had not confirmed the sites; ANS reports Braidwood, Byron, LaSalle, Quad Cities, Limerick and Salem.
About 190 MW is new; the rest is existing output: 690 − 190 = 500 MW. The power still flows to the PJM grid, not to an Amazon data centre, and a separate retail supply agreement covers Amazon's PJM operations.
No price or delivery start date was disclosed. Constellation says the contract gives it the revenue certainty to relicense the plant, whose units expire in 2034 and 2036.
Fuel loading began Aug 30, 2026. mlive reports an irradiated assembly tipped that day, blocking loading since, and that Holtec did not disclose it for several weeks; ANS reports Holtec acknowledged the pause by Sep 25, judging it below NRC reporting thresholds. The assembly sits at about 30 degrees; Holtec says fuel rods and cladding are intact. Holtec filed an amendment request on Sep 30; on Oct 13 the NRC issued a one-time amendment under "exigent circumstances", 13 days later, to move the assembly to the spent fuel pool, to be implemented within 10 days (by Oct 23). The material does not say whether the lift has happened. Holtec did not reaffirm an end-2026 return; earlier reports say it is contracted to supply power by March 2027.
Microsoft's 20-year agreement dates from September 2024. Sources give 835 MW and 880 MWe (WNA); the page follows 835 MW as the contract figure. Target year is 2027 per two sources and 2027 to 2028 per WNA, which the page follows as the wider range. NRC steps include an environmental assessment on Sep 29. A $1 billion DOE loan closed in Nov 2025 (Meticulous Research).
Google's 25-year agreement dates from Oct 2025, with restart targeted for early 2029 (WNA). A DOE loan of up to $1.9 billion was announced Sep 8, 2026, before the window (ANS).
Announced January 2026, per WNA: 20-year Vistra deals for 2,176 MWe, two TerraPower Natrium units totalling 690 MWe by 2032, and a 1.2 GWe Oklo campus. The itemised parts sum to 2,176 + 690 + 1,200 = 4,066 MW; the remainder is not itemised. One source calls the Oklo deal a prepayment and the TerraPower deal funding plus rights to energy.
Kairos is the only advanced-reactor developer here with a utility PPA: up to 50 MWe from Hermes 2 to the TVA grid for Google (announced Aug 18, 2025). Amazon, X-energy and AEP are reported to have signed for 12 Xe-100 reactors of 80 MW (12 × 80 = 960 MW) in Indiana, with Amazon funding development and buying the power; the page gives no date or price (reported).
Duke's MOUs with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nucor propose tariffs to fund new nuclear and storage, not power purchases. No capacity or date is stated.
Rules are finished faster than money is committed
This module covers the national rules and programmes that decide whether reactors can be licensed and financed. Status is judged against Oct 24, 2026. A final rule that is not in effect, a proposal and a non-binding framework are three different things.
Policy at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRC rule on DOE / Department of War authorised designs | Review targets about 18 / 12 months | Approved Oct 22 | Final, not in effect | ANS |
| NRC proposed rule, 91 FR 60702 | 89 pages | Sep 24; comments close Nov 9 | Proposed | Federal Register |
| NRC Part 53 | $152M net averted cost | Effective Apr 29 | In effect | The Innovation Attorney |
| NRC Part 57 (microreactors) | Comments closed Jun 15 | Announced Apr 24 | Proposed, not final | The Innovation Attorney; ANS |
| AP1000 design certification renewal | Renewal and update (a design approval, not a permit to build) | Oct 14 | Approved | ANS |
| US–Korea framework | Up to $120B, 8 units | Sep 30 | AnnouncedNon-binding | Neutron Bytes |
| EIB loan to Steady Energy | EUR 40M | Reported Oct 14 | Announced | IIR |
| Czech Temelín SMR environmental assessment | 470 MWe design | Date not stated | Submitted | WNN |
| China State Council | 8 units, more than CNY 170B | Jul 31 | Approved (context) | BigGo |
| India SHANTI Act rules | Caps INR 100–3,000 crore | Late Aug | Draft | Yellow Haze; Speyside |
Policy by region
The NRC finalised a rule letting applicants use analyses and test data from reactors previously authorised by DOE or the Department of War. It adds §50.43(f) to Part 50 and amends §53.440(a)(1) in Part 53; nothing in it allows the NRC to forgo independent review. Chairman Ho Nieh set targets of about 18 months for first-of-a-kind and 12 months for nth-of-a-kind reviews.
The Federal Register public-inspection copy schedules publication for Oct 26; ANS, citing the NRC's rulemaking list, says Oct 28. The page follows the Federal Register: Oct 26 + 30 days = Nov 25, 2026 (computed); Oct 28 would give Nov 27.
Part 53 took effect Apr 29, 2026, but no Part 53 review is complete and both 2026 construction permits came under Part 50. Part 57 was still unfinalised on Oct 22. On Sep 24 the NRC proposed "Regulatory Enhancements for Reactor Licensing, Decommissioning, and Operational Oversight", touching nine parts of 10 CFR (substance not in the material). Executive Order 14300 (May 23, 2025) gave 18 months to rewrite the rules: Nov 23, 2026 (computed); comments close Nov 9, so in our reading that rule cannot be final by then.
All eight under construction by 2030 is the stated aim. No site or utility is named. WNA calls the framework non-binding.
DOE announced on Jun 23 conditional loans of up to $17.5 billion for long-lead equipment for up to 10 AP1000s (WNA counts five two-unit projects). The Army's Janus programme plans up to $2.2 billion over fiscal 2027–2031 (plan).
The material holds no new UK decision in the window. Great British Energy – Nuclear appointed Arup for Wylfa engineering, worth up to £19.5 million (date not stated). Three 470 MWe Rolls-Royce SMRs give 3 × 470 = 1,410 MWe, which one source also calls "up to 1.5 GWe". WNN expects a final investment decision in 2029. WNA's January projection puts 14,460 of the UK's 24,000 MWe 2050 total (60%) under "government target", with no project attached.
ČEZ submitted the environmental impact assessment for a Rolls-Royce SMR at Temelín, expected to finish by end-2027. ČEZ chose the design in October 2024 for up to 3 GW and holds 20% of Rolls-Royce SMR.
The European Investment Bank lent EUR 40 million (US$46 million) to Finland's Steady Energy for the 50 MW heat-only LDR-50, its first SMR investment (reported Oct 14). IIR counts 43 European SMR projects worth US$147 billion. The Commission expects SMRs to add 17–53 GW by 2050 (estimate). CATF says new fission's eligibility under the 2028–2034 EU budget still faces opposition.
A State Council meeting on Jul 31 approved four projects with eight units and over CNY 170 billion (BigGo, context). The 15th Five-Year Plan targets 110 GWe by 2030. WNA (Oct 8) shows 65,085 MWe operable plus 39,755 MWe under construction = 104,840 MWe, 5,160 MWe short; the net or gross basis is not stated. BigGo's 135 GW counts approved units, so the page follows WNA for status.
The material shows no in-window policy event. Context: Chūbu Electric withdrew its Hamaoka 3 and 4 restart application on Sep 14 after a seismic-data scandal.
DAE's Jul 23 replies target 100 GWe by 2047 from 8.78 GW: 22 GW by 2031–32, with NPCIL adding 32 GW (22 + 32 = 54) and others 46 GW. The SHANTI Act's draft rules came out in late August; the foreign-investment policy awaits finalisation. Operator liability caps run from INR 100 crore to INR 3,000 crore by reactor size, though the source's bands overlap at 50–150 MW. The draft drops supplier liability under Section 17(b).
Fuel is priced ahead of the plants, and new Western supply comes late
Term uranium is above its old peak while spot is not; DOE money has gone to enrichers, yet no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028 and the Russian waiver window closes on Jan 1, 2028.
Uranium prices and enrichment capacity
Cameco month-end series (UxC and TradeTech averages), via Farmonaut; reported. Axis: US$ per lb U3O8; points shown are Sep 2025, Jan 2026 and Sep 2026. Uranium has no exchange, so every public price is an average of broker quotes.
Spot is still below its current-cycle peak of $107 and its 2007 high of $136 (Sprott via NucNet). Trading Economics showed about $90 on Oct 14, derived from a contract for difference, so an estimate. No October month-end print is in the material.
| Capacity, thousand SWU/yr (WNA) | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Rosatom | 29,133 | 29,810 |
| Urenco | 17,300 | 18,000 |
| CNNC (assumed) | 13,789 | 18,230 |
| Orano | 7,500 | 10,000 |
| World total | 68,076 | 77,784 |
Source: WNA table. 2030 values as listed in the table.
Rosatom held 29,133 of 68,076 thousand SWU/yr in 2025: 29,133 ÷ 68,076 = 43% (computed). New Western capacity: Orano is adding 2.5M SWU at Tricastin (first modules 2028, full commissioning 2030); Urenco broke ground in August on a 2.1M SWU expansion at Eunice, New Mexico, to exceed 7M SWU by 2036.
Fuel and supply chain at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U3O8 spot | $89.63/lb | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end average) | Cameco, via Farmonaut |
| U3O8 long-term (term) | $96.50/lb, above the 2007 peak of $95 | Sep 30, 2026 | Reported (month-end average) | Cameco figures, via a GlobeNewswire commentary |
| General Matter Paducah enrichment licence | 40-year licence, 10 CFR Parts 40 and 70; LEU up to 5%, HALEU up to 20% | Dated Sep 27, announced Sep 28, 2026 | Applied; NRC acceptance review | NNN |
| Centrus buys Westerman | About $116M | Oct 19, 2026 | Announced | Credence Research |
| Centrus DOE Piketon task order | $900M base, up to $1.07B with options | Awarded Jan 6; contract signed Jul 1, 2026 | Signed | Credence Research; Kalkine |
| Westinghouse LEU+ fuel plant | $1B, fuel up to 8% U-235, Columbia, S.C. | Oct 23, 2026 | Announced | ANS |
| Orano Oak Ridge (Project Ike) | $900M DOE award; NRC 12-month review target | Jan 2026 | Under review | WNA; NNN |
| Russian LEU imports | Waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028 | Ban in effect since Aug 11, 2024 | In effect | DOE; Oregon Group |
Fuel in detail
Cameco's Q2 realised price was $67.79/lb (+18% year on year), or 67.79 ÷ 96.50 = 70% of the term price (computed). Kazatomprom's H1 2026 realised price was $67.88 against an average month-end spot of $86.83.
US utilities paid $58.46/lb on 2025 deliveries (EIA): 87% of volume came under term contracts at $55.91 and 13% at spot-contract prices of $76.01; 0.87 × 55.91 + 0.13 × 76.01 ≈ 58.5 checks.
Cameco's president said market-related contracts now carry floors "in the high 70s escalated" and ceilings "160 escalated" (call of Jul 31). Cameco reports Q3 on Oct 30, which is still ahead.
DOE awarded $900M task orders to each of Centrus, General Matter and Orano in January 2026. Centrus reported Q2 revenue of $176.1M (+14%) and a $4.5B backlog against $3.8B at year-end 2025 (+$0.7B, +18%) on Aug 6, before the window. On Oct 19 it announced the Westerman purchase: about $95M cash plus $21M equity = $116M; first new centrifuges go online in Ohio in 2029 (according to Credence Research). A $500M public offering priced in September (per Breakwise).
The HALEU Operation Contract was extended only to Sep 30 for $15.0M of maintenance and storage; DOE said it does not intend further options and the FY2027 budget has no funds. The material does not say what happened after Sep 30. Demand is firm: X-energy signed in August, Radiant and Antares in September, Oklo a June letter of intent; Piketon has produced more than 1,900 kg of HALEU.
General Matter applied to the NRC for a Paducah licence; NRC staff were walked through it in closed sessions scheduled for Oct 14–15 and the NRC is deciding whether to accept it. This is a core licence, with a HALEU amendment planned for next year; the enrichment technology is redacted as a trade secret. It asked the NRC to act on a pre-licence foundation exemption by Nov 6. Global Laser Enrichment applied in July 2025 and its output is committed to Cameco. Both Paducah firms target production by 2030.
The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act took effect on Aug 11, 2024, with DOE able to grant waivers. Russia still supplied 26% of the enrichment services bought by US operators in 2025, up from about 20%, and waivers must end by Jan 1, 2028. Visiongain adds that the UK banned Russian uranium from May 2026. The Oct 16 Graham Act tariff waiver concerns sanctions tariffs; the page treats the LEU ban as unchanged.
Honeywell's Metropolis Works is the only US commercial converter. NANO Nuclear agreed on Oct 1 to buy deconversion assets in New Mexico for $9.5M cash plus $4.0M stock = $13.5M, subject to NRC consent. The material has no SWU or conversion price.
Westinghouse announced a $1B LEU+ plant on Oct 23 (fuel up to 8% U-235, Columbia, S.C.). TRISO-X finished the structure of its Oak Ridge TX-1 plant in September, sized for up to 11 Xe-100 reactors. The NRC approved Framatome TRISO fabrication at Richland in June.
The first dated deliveries are uprates in 2028; the nearest dates are procedural
Most targets sit between 2027 and 2031: Crane 2027 to 2028, Duane Arnold early 2029, the first Constellation uprate 2028 with all 890 MW before the end of 2032, Kemmerer 2030 and 2031, Darlington end-2030, a UK final investment decision for Rolls-Royce SMR expected in 2029, and Meta's two Natrium units by 2032. These describe dated events, not forecasts.
Where each target can slip
No committed start dates for the plants these permits enable
TVA has no start date and did not reaffirm its 2032 target. Kemmerer already slipped from 2028 to 2031, and TerraPower says the Bechtel change does not alter the schedule. Holtec did not reaffirm an end-2026 return to service at Palisades, while earlier reports say it is contracted to supply power by March 2027.
Only fragments of cost are on the record
TVA's board has committed $350M against up to $400M of DOE cost sharing, and no total cost is given. Constellation's $4.3 billion for 890 MW works out to about $4.8 million per MW, our arithmetic, not a contract price.
Supply gaps already cost a schedule
Kemmerer's slip is attributed to lost commercial HALEU supply, the HALEU Operation Contract was extended only to Sep 30, and Russia supplied 26% of US enrichment purchases before waivers end on Jan 1, 2028.
Rules are arriving; completed reviews are not
No Part 53 review is complete. Kemmerer's permit took about 24 months against Clinch River's 14, and the NRC's own proposed rule would not be final by the Nov 23 deadline in our reading.
The material holds no polling
The one trust signal is mlive's report that Holtec did not disclose the Palisades incident for several weeks.
Key dates (state judged on Oct 24, 2026)
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | NRC Part 53 takes effect | In effect | The Innovation Attorney |
| Sep 29, 2026 | NRC issues Clinch River Unit 1 construction permit | In effect | GE Vernova Hitachi |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Amazon–Constellation 690 MW PPA announced; US–Korea framework announced | In effect | Constellation; Neutron Bytes |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Google–Constellation 890 MW PPA announced | In effect | Constellation |
| Oct 13, 2026 | NRC exigent amendment for Palisades assembly removal | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 22, 2026 | NRC approves final rule on DOE / Department of War authorised designs | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Palisades amendment implementation deadline; Westinghouse $1B plant announced | In effect | ANS |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Federal Register publication of the NRC final rule (scheduled) | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Cameco Q3 report | Upcoming | TIKR |
| Nov 6, 2026 | General Matter asks NRC to act on a foundation exemption | Upcoming | NNN |
| Nov 9, 2026 | Comments close on NRC proposed rule 91 FR 60702 | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Nov 23, 2026 | EO 14300 18-month rule deadline | UpcomingComputed | GO-IBR |
| Nov 25, 2026 | NRC final rule effective (computed from Oct 26) | UpcomingComputed | Federal Register |
| End-2026 | $10B Korean advance contemplated under the framework | Upcoming | Neutron Bytes |
| Mar 2027 | Holtec reported as contracted to supply Palisades power | UpcomingReported | ANS |
| End-2027 | Temelín environmental assessment due to finish | Upcoming | WNN |
| Jan 1, 2028 | Russian LEU import waivers must end | Upcoming | Oregon Group |
| 2028 | First Constellation uprate; Orano first Tricastin modules | Upcoming | Constellation; WNA |
| 2030–2031 | Kemmerer completion (2030) and operation (2031); Darlington grid connection by end-2030 | Upcoming | NEI; Construction Briefing |
The nearest dated steps are procedural. The Federal Register is scheduled to publish the NRC final rule on Oct 26, giving an effective date of about Nov 25 (Oct 26 + 30 days); ANS cites Oct 28, which would give Nov 27. Cameco reports Q3 on Oct 30; General Matter asked the NRC to act on a foundation exemption by Nov 6; comments on the NRC's proposed rule close on Nov 9, two weeks before the EO 14300 deadline of Nov 23. For Palisades, the amendment had to be implemented by Oct 23; the material does not say whether the lift has happened, so that status stays open.
Several items carry no date in the material: the Temelín filing, the Amazon, X-energy and AEP Indiana agreement, and the Duke tariff MOUs. Treat them as announced or reported, not as scheduled. Cost per megawatt, the Nov 23 and Nov 25 dates and the Calvert Cliffs share are our own arithmetic, not source figures.
Read the month by reader: separate signed contracts from frameworks and conditional loans
Five readers, five different takeaways from the same month. Every statement above stays tied to the status and date shown in its own module.
What changed, what it means, by reader
Clinch River got its permit on Sep 29, but the board has not approved a build commitment; Calvert Cliffs gains a 190 MW uprate for 2030 to 2032.
A permit is not a build decision; a separate operating licence is still required, while uprates are the nearer capacity.
ENR; Constellation
Google and Constellation signed 890 MW plus 2,700 MW; Amazon signed 690 MW; prices were not disclosed.
Near-term power comes from uprates and existing plants, while SMR offtake commitments run to 2032 to 2035.
Constellation; WNA
The NRC approved a final rule on Oct 22 letting applicants cite DOE and Department of War test data; Part 53 has no completed review.
The rule is an evidence route, not a licence, and independent NRC review remains.
ANS; The Innovation Attorney
Term uranium rose to $96.50/lb, above the 2007 peak; Centrus bought Westerman for about $116M; General Matter applied for a licence.
Pricing and financing run ahead of supply, and no new Western enrichment capacity runs before 2028.
GlobeNewswire commentary (Cameco figures); Credence Research; NNN; WNA
The Korea framework offers up to $120B for eight units but is non-binding; DOE loans of up to $17.5B are conditional.
Separate signed contracts from frameworks and conditional loans when reading headlines. This page is not investment advice.
Neutron Bytes; The Innovation Attorney
Design approvals, construction permits and operating licences are different instruments. This page describes the month; it is not investment advice.