1. Key takeaways from the month
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, robotaxi news was about wider service areas, open regulatory files and delayed timelines, not about findings or final rules. Five conclusions explain the month; each points to the chapter that holds the evidence, with every status judged against Oct 24.
1. Scale is visible in service areas and miles, but only Chinese operators publish dated fleet counts. Waymo opened San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa to everyone on Oct 14 and added Las Vegas airport access on Oct 21. Its weekly volume of more than 500,000 paid rides is a press report, and a company target of over 1 million a week by year-end would need 2x in about ten weeks. Pony.ai reported 1,975 robotaxis at Jun 30 and WeRide over 1,800 on Sep 24, while Tesla gave 3.1 million no-monitor miles in six cities and no fleet size. [Chapter 2]
2. Cities pushed back, and the pushback did not stick. Minneapolis passed a human-monitor mandate 7-6 on Oct 1; the mayor vetoed it on Oct 2 and the override failed. Permits elsewhere kept widening: Nevada approved 7,000 vehicles for Tesla, Waymo and Uber in Clark County, and Waymo received an Ontario testing permit with riders targeted for 2028. Tesla's next four cities are announced, not launched. [Chapter 3]
3. Safety produced open files, not findings. NHTSA opened defect petition DP26010 on Oct 9 on Tesla Robotaxi school-zone speeding, covering about 1,000 vehicles, four incidents and no crashes, with a decision due around Jan 21, 2027. Tesla's answers to audit query AQ26002 are reported due Oct 30, and a Zoox vehicle and a car collided on the Las Vegas Strip on Sep 25. Waymo's self-reported 271.3 million miles show 82% fewer injury crashes, while NHTSA's 1,538 incident reports carry no mileage. [Chapter 4]
4. In production cars, supervised systems sell and eyes-off systems are targets. Tesla's FSD (Supervised) attach rate passed 75% of new North American deliveries and active subscriptions reached 1.74 million, while unsupervised customer cars are an executive estimate of "around Q2" 2027. GM's eyes-off Super Cruise is a 2028 target, and Rivian began early-access invitations for hands-free driving on Oct 15. [Chapter 5]
5. China's rules are drafts, and L3 is a pilot. MIIT says more than 70% of new passenger cars have L2 driver assistance and the first L3 pilots have begun. Its draft ADS marker-lamp standard, limited to L3-and-above cars from Jan 1, 2028, takes comments until Dec 19, so nothing is in effect. [Chapter 5] [Chapter 3]
1.1 Operators at a glance
| Operator | Cities | Fleet | Weekly rides | Latest milestone | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waymo | 14 cities with fully autonomous trips (Sep 1) | Not disclosed in the material | Over 500,000 paid (press report) | Las Vegas airport, Oct 21 | Shipping, phased | — |
| Tesla Robotaxi | 6 with no in-car monitor; Bay Area with safety driver | Not disclosed; over 300 Cybercabs in Austin (Oct 10) | Not disclosed; 3.1M miles Jan 22 to Oct 18 | Safety report, Oct 21 | Company-reported; DP26010 open | — |
| Zoox | Las Vegas, paid since Aug 10; free in San Francisco | Not disclosed; 30 to 100 reported | Not disclosed | Strip crash, Sep 25 | Police investigating | — |
| Baidu Apollo Go | 28 (Aug 20) | Not stated | About 246,000 in Q1 (our estimate) | Uber launch in Dubai, Aug 20 | Reported | — |
| Pony.ai | Not stated; target over 20 by year-end | 1,975 at Jun 30; target over 3,500 | Not disclosed | Gen-7 testing in Manchester, Oct 14 | Company-reported | — |
| WeRide | Over 60 cities in 13 countries (all AV types) | Over 1,800 robotaxis of about 3,400 AVs | Not disclosed | Fleet update, Sep 24 | Company-reported | — |
2. Operating scale and data
Chapter 1 summarised the month; this chapter gives the numbers behind it, operator by operator, with reporter and basis.
2.1 Operators at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waymo cities with public autonomous rides | 14 | Sep 1, 2026 | Company-reported | Waymo (via Unite.AI) |
| Waymo open to all: San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa | 3 cities, incl. San Antonio airport | Oct 14, 2026 | In effect | Waymo blog |
| Waymo Las Vegas airport | Terminals 1 and 3; current riders first | Oct 21, 2026 | Shipping, phased | Waymo blog |
| Waymo paid rides per week | >500,000 | Oct 16, 2026 | Reported (not Waymo) | Electrek |
| Tesla Robotaxi, no in-car monitor | 6 cities, 3.1M miles | Jan 22–Oct 18, 2026 | Company-reported | Tesla (via Not a Tesla App) |
| Tesla Cybercabs in Austin | >300 | Oct 10, 2026 | Company statement | Tesla (via Automotive World) |
| Zoox Las Vegas | Paid since Aug 10; fleet 30–100 | Sep 2026 | Reported; no company count | Venture Atlas; Built In |
| Baidu Apollo Go | 28 cities | Aug 20, 2026 | Reported | ScanX |
| Pony.ai robotaxis | 1,975 | Jun 30, 2026 | Company-reported | Pony.ai (via Venture Atlas) |
| WeRide robotaxis | >1,800 (of ~3,400 AVs) | Sep 24, 2026 | Company-reported | WeRide |
Definitions differ across rows (cities, rides, miles, vehicles), so do not add or rank them against each other.
2.2 US operators: Waymo, Tesla and Zoox
Waymo. On Oct 14, 2026, Waymo opened service to anyone in San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa, saying it had welcomed "hundreds of thousands of riders" there since opening "earlier in the year". That counts riders, not rides. First public riders came on Feb 24 in San Antonio and Sep 1 in San Diego and Tampa. Las Vegas airport access began Oct 21 for existing riders, inside a 24-square-mile area, with more riders added gradually. Toronto (Oct 16; riders targeted for 2028, permit detail in Chapter 3) and Madrid (Oct 20) are groundwork announcements, not service.
Waymo's own pages in the material give no weekly-ride or fleet figure. Electrek reports more than 500,000 paid rides a week; New Market Pitch repeats it undated. In February co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said Waymo was "on track to serve over one million rides per week by the end of this year". If both mean paid rides, that needs 1,000,000 ÷ 500,000 = 2x in about ten weeks (Oct 24 to Dec 31 is 68 days), so treat it as an unproven target. The nearest vehicle counts are recall populations of 3,791 (May) and 3,871 (June), which are not fleet sizes (see Chapter 4).
Tesla. Tesla's first Robotaxi Safety Report (Oct 21) shows 3.1 million autonomous miles from Jan 22 to Oct 18 with no in-car monitor, in six cities:
| City | Autonomous miles | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Austin | 2,118,015 | 68% |
| Dallas | 608,130 | 20% |
| Houston | 225,964 | 7% |
| Orlando | 61,053 | 2% |
| Tampa | 53,117 | 2% |
| Miami | 46,262 | 1% |
The cities sum to 3,112,541, matching the headline, and Austin is 2,118,015 ÷ 3,112,541 = 68%. The Bay Area, where a safety driver is required, is excluded. Tesla's Q3 update says Cybercab rides began Sep 3 in Austin.
Tesla discloses no fleet size. It said on Oct 10 that more than 300 Cybercabs were operating in Austin, though Electrek notes few are active at once. An EVwire headline gives 349 Texas Cybercab registrations on Oct 15, and NHTSA's petition file estimates about 1,000 Model Y and Cybercab vehicles in scope (Oct 9; see Chapter 4). These are operating, registration and regulatory counts, so we do not reconcile them. Tesla named Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville and San Antonio as next, with no dates, and Bloomberg notes no new city since July. Cybercab rides in Dallas are planned for November, per the Oct 21 call (as reported).
Zoox. Zoox has charged fares in Las Vegas since Aug 10 (Harry Reid airport from Sep 3) and gives free rides in San Francisco pending California permits. Fleet figures conflict: about 65 in Las Vegas (Aug 10, Venture Atlas), about 100 (TechCrunch, Sep, via Built In), and over 30 per an independent tracker. Zoox declined to give a count. We follow none as company data and use 30 to 100 as the bracket.
2.3 China-based operators: Baidu, Pony.ai and WeRide
Pony.ai and WeRide publish dated fleet counts. Waymo, Tesla and Zoox publish miles, cities and rider milestones, but the material holds no company fleet count for them.
Baidu Apollo Go. The material has no Q3 figure, and Baidu's Q3 report date is not stated. Its Q1 2026 report showed 3.2 million fully driverless rides in the quarter, over 22 million cumulative trips and 27 cities (via Bastille Post). Over 13 weeks that is 3,200,000 ÷ 13 ≈ 246,000 rides a week on average (our estimate). On Aug 20, ScanX reported 28 cities and 350 million autonomous kilometres, 240 million fully driverless, as Apollo Go launched on Uber in Dubai. Do not compare the 246,000 with Waymo's 500,000: basis, period and reporter all differ.
Pony.ai. Q2 results (Aug 18) showed 1,975 robotaxis at Jun 30, revenue of $36.2 million (+68.8%) and robotaxi service revenue of $12.1 million, which is 12.1 ÷ 36.2 = 33% of revenue. The year-end target is above 3,500 robotaxis in over 20 cities, needing 3,500 − 1,975 = 1,525 more (+77%). No later fleet figure exists; Q3 results are due Nov 18. Gen-7 testing began in Manchester on Oct 14 with a safety driver and no passengers.
WeRide. On Sep 24 WeRide reported about 3,400 autonomous vehicles, over 1,800 of them robotaxis, in 13 countries and over 60 cities. An earlier secondary summary said 40 cities in 11 countries; we follow the company's dated figure. Its Middle East robotaxi fleet was about 400 at Jul 31, fully driverless in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Guangzhou averaged over 21 rides per vehicle per day, and Punggol in Singapore had served more than 12,000 unique riders by Sep 15. H1 revenue was $51.0 million (+73%) and Q2 $34.2 million (+82%), implying Q1 of 51.0 − 34.2 = $16.8 million.
Judgement. Chinese operators give the more checkable fleet counts; US operators give rider-facing milestones. The gaps to close are Waymo's own weekly rides and fleet, and Baidu's Q3 rides.
3. City permits and regulation
Chapter 2 counted the fleets and service areas; this chapter covers who allowed them, and where cities pushed back.
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis driver mandate (Council Action 2026-034) | Passed 7-6; human monitor at the controls; effective Oct 2027 | Oct 1 | Vetoed Oct 2; override failed | FOX 9; MPR; KSTP |
| Waymo Toronto | Provincial permit for manual driving and testing; riders targeted 2028 | Oct 16 | In effect (testing only) | TechCrunch |
| Nevada NTA, Clark County | Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000, Uber 1,000 | Aug 20 | In effect (context) | Sam & Ash Law |
| Zoox NHTSA exemption | 2,500 vehicles per 12 months; parts of 8 FMVSS | Jul 31, 2026 to Jul 31, 2028 | In effect (context) | Mori Hamada |
| Tesla next four cities | Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio; no dates | Oct 21 | Announced | Bloomberg via Moneycontrol |
| China ADS marker lamp standard | Comment to Dec 19, 2026; proposed effective Jan 1, 2028 | Oct 20 | Proposed | BigGo |
| WeRide Europe permits | Spain national L4 permit; Switzerland driverless permit | By Sep 24 | Company statement | WeRide |
3.1 Minneapolis: a driver mandate that did not survive
On Oct 1 the Minneapolis City Council passed the "Workers Drive Minneapolis" ordinance 7-6. It would require a city licence and a human safety monitor with a driver's licence and immediate access to steering, braking and acceleration, paid minimum wage, effective October 2027. It advanced 7-4 on Sep 29, with two members absent. Mayor Jacob Frey vetoed it on Oct 2, calling it a "backdoor ban" and citing ignored issues such as curbside management, emergency response and liability.
The override failed. Overriding needed nine votes, two-thirds of 13 (13 × 2/3 = 8.7, rounded up). KSTP reports 7-5; KARE says supporters were two votes short, which implies seven. Both agree it failed; we follow KSTP. The meeting date is not stated ("Thursday"). Four sponsors say they are restarting the legislative process.
Local authority is unsettled. Minnesota has no AV-specific statute, and a spring bill failed. In 2024 the Legislature removed city power over driver pay after a council override. St. Paul's council president proposed a study of AV rules before any operator arrives; the outcome is not in the material.
Cities are testing the edge of their power. Minneapolis passed the toughest rule in the US and could not make it stick.
3.2 United States: federal exemptions, Nevada caps and California fares
There is still no comprehensive federal AV law. The SELF DRIVE Act of 2026 (H.R. 7390) went to the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Feb 10 and shows no further movement (Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, via JDSupra). The federal action is by exemption. On Jul 30 NHTSA granted Zoox a two-year Part 555 exemption, effective Jul 31, 2026 to Jul 31, 2028. It covers portions of eight FMVSS and caps use at 2,500 vehicles in any 12 months. A proposed Part 555 update and a $5 million NHTSA partnership with SAE ITC closed comment in August; no final rule appears in the material. In the window, FMCSA's five-year exemption letting driverless trucks use warning beacons instead of triangles took effect Oct 7.
State rules differ. Texas, Arizona and Florida allow testing without a human driver, New York requires a licensed safety driver, and California separates testing and deployment permits. In Nevada, the Transportation Authority (NTA) approved Clark County permits on Aug 20: Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000 and Uber 1,000 vehicles, so 5,000 + 1,000 + 1,000 = 7,000 over a year. Zoox's 100-vehicle statewide cap expired Sep 25, and an updated permit lifts it. In California, Zoox still carries riders free under a CPUC pilot permit, has no DMV deployment permit, and was reported in mid-September to have applied for one.
Basenor says Nevada's DMV approved Tesla on Aug 20; the other sources name the NTA, and we follow them. On Oct 21 Tesla said Phoenix, Las Vegas, Jacksonville and San Antonio would come "soon", with no timeline. Bloomberg adds that Tesla cleared "one of its last regulatory hurdles in Arizona" the previous month, without detail. We treat all four cities as announced, not launched.
3.3 Outside the US: Toronto, China, the Gulf and Europe
Toronto (Oct 16). Waymo says Ontario approved its entry into the Automated Vehicle Pilot Program and gave it a provincial permit for manual driving and testing, with riders targeted in 2028. Electrek notes that Waymo's post names no permit; we follow the reports of the company's statement, while accepting that the permit covers testing only. The pilot regulation (O. Reg. 306/15) is revoked on Oct 13, 2027, and Ontario has not said what replaces it.
China. City-permit material for the window is thin. XPENG says it obtained Guangzhou's remote testing qualification in August, allowing tests with no safety operator in the driver's seat on Class I, II and III roads, and opened invitation-code registration on Oct 8 (company release). National rules are tightening around L3: MIIT opened comment on a mandatory standard restricting the ADS marker lamp to L3-and-above vehicles (Oct 20, comment to Dec 19), and a vice minister said on Oct 21 that market-access pilots will advance "prudently". We found nothing new for Beijing, Shenzhen or Wuhan.
Gulf and Europe. The UAE approved federal rules on inspection, registration, licensing and testing of self-driving vehicles in September (China Daily). WeRide says it holds permits in nine markets, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Spain's first national L4 passenger permit and Switzerland's driverless permit (Europe's first). Waymo's London driverless target of Q4 2026 depends on the UK finalising approvals, and Munich approvals are pending.
Permits move in steps: testing with a driver, driverless testing, then paid service. Most items above sit on the early steps.
4. Safety incidents and data
Chapter 3 set out what regulators allow; this chapter covers what regulators, police and crash records say about how the vehicles behave. The window produced new files, not findings.
4.1 Safety ledger, Sep 24 – Oct 23, 2026
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHTSA DP26010, Tesla Robotaxi school zones | ~1,000 vehicles (estimate); 4 incidents, 0 crashes | Opened Oct 9; due ~Jan 21, 2027 | Open petition; no defect finding | NHTSA ODI |
| NHTSA AQ26002, Cybercab certification | 21 requests | Opened Sep 3; answers due Oct 30 | Open audit query (reported) | Automotive World |
| Zoox crash, Las Vegas Strip | 1 other vehicle; no passengers aboard | Sep 25 | Police investigating | KSNV |
| NHTSA Standing General Order (SGO) ADS reports | 1,538 incidents; 154 alleged injury | Through Aug 2026 | Published counts, not rates | Reyes Law |
| Waymo Safety Impact hub | 271.3M miles; 82% fewer injury crashes | Through Jun 2026 | Company-reported | Waymo |
| Tesla Robotaxi safety page | 2.95M Texas miles | Jan 22 – Oct 18 | Company-reported | Tesla |
| Waymo recalls | 6 since Feb 2024 | Latest Jun 2026 | Fixed by software (reported) | eletric-vehicles.com |
4.2 Tesla: a petition, an audit and remote-operator crashes
NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) opened DP26010 on Oct 9, 2026, after receiving the petition on Sep 23. It covers MY 2026 Tesla Robotaxis (Model Y and Cybercab) with the automated driving system (ADS) engaged. An unnamed petitioner alleges they exceed posted limits in active school zones and supplied three video links. ODI's tally is four incidents (one ODI report, three social media reports) and zero crashes, injuries or fatalities. The status is "Open Defect Petition": ODI will decide whether to grant or deny it. That is neither a recall nor a preliminary evaluation, and no defect has been found.
The deadline is 120 days from receipt: Sep 23 + 120 days = Jan 21, 2027 (49 CFR Part 552, per Electrek). A grant opens a formal investigation, which can end in a recall. The 1,000 figure is NHTSA's estimate of the covered population; Electrek suggests it may count certified rather than active vehicles. Fleet size is in Chapter 2.
Audit query AQ26002 is older. According to CBT News, NHTSA opened it on Sep 3, the day Tesla began Cybercab service in Austin, to test how a car without a steering wheel or pedals was certified. Sources conflict on the deadline. Electrek (Oct 12) says answers were due Sep 30; Automotive World says Oct 30 after a 30-day extension. We follow the later report. Oct 30 is still ahead, and NHTSA has not published Tesla's answers.
Tesla's own page covers Robotaxi driving with no safety monitor from Jan 22 to Oct 18, 2026. It reports 2.95 million Texas miles (95% of its total, implying about 3.1 million), no airbag deployments of its own and no pedestrians or cyclists hit. This is Tesla's own selection of events and miles, with no independent check in the material.
Electrek counts five Tesla crashes in which a remote operator was driving, two of them new, both in August. In Dallas the car moved at about 0.40 mph into an SUV, and in Austin at about 1 mph into a dumpster, both with property damage only. Tesla has 36 unique Robotaxi incident reports, up from 22 in July, and does not disclose how often operators intervene, so no rate exists.
4.3 Zoox and Waymo: one crash, six recalls
A driverless Zoox and a Nissan Murano collided on Sep 25 on southbound Las Vegas Boulevard at Four Seasons Drive, shortly before 8:20 a.m.. Zoox said no passengers were aboard and that it would examine the lead-up and aftermath. The Murano's driver went to hospital with a minor upper-body injury, per police via News 3. Nevada Highway Patrol took over the investigation, and fault has not been determined. Context before the window: a June software recall of 105 Zoox robotaxis after one drove into a smoke-filled fire scene.
Waymo added no new recall in the window. It has filed six NHTSA recalls since Feb 2024, all fixed by software. The latest three covered 3,067 vehicles (Dec 2025, school buses), 3,791 (May 2026, San Antonio floodwater) and 3,871 (June 2026, freeway construction zones). NHTSA's investigation of the Jan 2026 Santa Monica strike on a child near a school remains open; the child had minor injuries. Waymo says the car braked from about 17 mph to under 6 mph before contact.
4.4 Crash data: what counts can and cannot show
An analysis of the SGO release counts 1,538 distinct ADS incidents through August 2026. Waymo is the reporting entity for 1,273 (82.8%), then Avride 81, Zoox 77 and Tesla 36. Of the 1,538, 154 (10.0%) alleged an injury, two of them fatal. Quarterly counts rose from 194 (Q3 2025) to 388 (Q2 2026), about 2.0×. The file has no mileage, so it cannot rank companies or show whether risk rose. The sources disagree on the cutoff: one says reports were received through Sep 15, another that the release is dated Sep 15 and covers reports through Aug 17. We follow the second, which cites NHTSA's data dictionary, but NHTSA's own release is not in the material.
Waymo is the only operator in the material with exposure data. Its hub reports (company-reported, through June 2026, posted Sep 24) 271.3 million rider-only miles, 841 fewer injury-causing crashes (82%) and 55 fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes (95%) than a human benchmark. Check: 0.011 vs 0.213 serious crashes per million miles gives 3.0 vs 57.8 over 271.3 million miles, a gap of about 55.
| City | Rider-only miles (M) | Injury-crash reduction |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 92.1 | 71% |
| SF Bay Area | 82.4 | 90% |
| Los Angeles | 67.1 | 66% |
| Austin | 21.1 | 84% |
| Atlanta | 8.6 | 88% |
All values from Waymo's data hub via eletric-vehicles.com; the miles sum to 271.3.
The window produced files, not findings: a Tesla petition, a Tesla audit query and a Zoox police inquiry are open. The only large exposure-based dataset is Waymo's own.
The "841 people" claim assumes at least one injured person per crash. The independent IIHS study (July) found 81% fewer injury crashes and 68% fewer police-reportable crashes over about 50 million miles in 2021-2024. Tesla's 2.95 million miles are about 1.1% of Waymo's 271.3 million (2.95 ÷ 271.3), so any Tesla rate carries far wider uncertainty.
5. Driver assistance in production cars
Chapter 4 covered investigations into driverless operation; this chapter covers systems customers already own, where the human stays responsible and the month's news was about timelines, subscriptions and draft rules.
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla FSD (Supervised) attach rate, North America | >75% of new deliveries | Q3 2026, reported Oct 21 | Reported | Tesla |
| Tesla active FSD subscriptions | 1.74 million | End Q3 2026 | Reported | Tesla |
| Unsupervised FSD, customer cars | "Around Q2" 2027, fleet opt-in | Stated Oct 21 | Estimate | Elluswamy via The Verge |
| GM eyes-off Super Cruise | 2028, Escalade IQ | Oct 12 | Target | CNBC |
| Rivian Point-to-Point hands-free | Late 2026 limited; 2027 broad | Invites from Oct 15 | Early access | Rivian |
| China L2 share of new cars | >70% | Oct 21 | Official statement | MIIT via BigGo |
| ADS marker lamp rule | L3+ only; from Jan 1, 2028 | Draft Oct 20 | Draft | BigGo |
5.1 Tesla: supervised FSD sells; unsupervised for customers is an estimate
Tesla reported Q3 2026 on Oct 21 (Form 8-K). The FSD (Supervised) attach rate reached over 75% of new North American deliveries, "a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase", and active FSD subscriptions (purchases plus subscriptions, free trials excluded) rose to 1.74 million. The same deck gives the series: 1.04 million (Q3 2025), 1.10, 1.28, 1.48 and 1.74 million. The latest quarter added 1.74 − 1.48 = 0.26 million (+17.6%), and 1.74 ÷ 1.04 − 1 = +67% year on year, matching Tesla's figure. According to Not a Tesla App, an analyst put annual recurring revenue near $1 billion and Tesla said the number was right (a call recap, not a filing).
The headline claim is the customer-car timeline. Elluswamy said "we suspect sometime around Q2 of next year is when we can turn on customer vehicles to join the robotaxi fleet", adding that the only extra requirement is fitting Tesla's geofences and fleet management (The Verge, via Shattered). Status: estimate, from an earnings call, not a release. Shattered calls it a "delay", but the material has no earlier customer-car date, so we follow Elluswamy's wording. Scope is unsettled: Not a Tesla App says first use is limited to select US regions and "probably only for highway use", while Shattered says Robotaxi currently avoids highways.
BASENOR quotes Elluswamy that "pretty soon" Tesla can release Robotaxi's software to customers as FSD 15, with "late 2026" as a target attributed only to "Tesla statements". BASENOR also says HW3 parity is unconfirmed and "FSD 15 Lite" is community speculation. The material holds no Tesla statement on HW3 and no FSD v14.3.x release notes. On Europe, Not a Tesla App says FSD is approved in nine countries with an EU-wide vote expected in December; Musk said he would be "surprised if it takes longer than Q1" 2027, his expectation, not a regulatory date. Robotaxi permits sit in Chapter 3.
Tesla's supervised product is the proven part, at 1.74 million paying users. Unsupervised customer cars remain a Q2 2027 executive estimate that depends on Tesla's own fleet gate.
5.2 GM and Rivian: eyes-off is a 2028 story, hands-free expands now
GM CEO Mary Barra told CNBC on Oct 12 that GM is on track for "eyes off, hands off" in the "'28 time frame", first on the Cadillac Escalade IQ (announced October 2025). MLQ notes GM has not specified launch states, road network, pricing or regulatory clearances. Status: target. Today's Super Cruise is hands-free but eyes-on, available on over 630,000 US and Canadian roads and more than 20 GM models; AP puts Ford's BlueCruise at over 130,000 miles of roads. Roads and miles are different units, so do not compare them.
Rivian has the month's one dated rollout. Its support page says the invitation-only Autonomy Early Access Program sends invitations on a rolling basis from Oct 15, 2026 to US Gen 2 R1 and R2 owners with an active Autonomy+ subscription, California and Florida first, Gen 1 and Canada excluded. Point-to-Point hands-free driving reaches this group in late 2026 and Gen 2 R1 and R2 broadly in 2027. InsideEVs gives Autonomy+ at $49.99 a month or $2,500 lifetime, with more detail due at Rivian's Dec 9 Autonomy & AI Day; it remains "hands-off but not eyes-off". Drive Tesla Canada, citing RivianTrackr, says the software arrives in December; we follow Rivian's "late 2026". The material has no Mercedes Drive Pilot, Lucid or Ford rollout news.
5.3 China: L2 is mainstream, L3 is a pilot, and the rules are draft
At the World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference in Beijing on Oct 21, MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin said more than 70% of new passenger cars sold in China have L2 combined driver assistance and the first batch of L3-capable models has begun road pilots in designated areas (via BigGo). MIIT's Guo Shougang said on Oct 22 that Changan and BAIC received conditional L3 access in December 2025 and a second pilot batch is under way.
The most concrete rule is a draft. On Oct 20 MIIT opened comment on five mandatory standards. In the lighting revision (GB 4785), the blue-green "ADS marker lamp" may be fitted only on vehicles with an L3-or-higher system meeting GB 44721 and must light automatically; L2-or-below vehicles may not fit it. The proposed effective date is Jan 1, 2028, with approved models given until the 37th month, which GlobalChinaEV puts at January 2031. Comments close Dec 19, 2026, so nothing is in effect. Li Auto, XPeng and NIO currently fit blue lamps on L2 cars. Regulators are also pressing on marketing: on Oct 16 four departments told more than 30 carmakers not to mislead buyers about system limits.
On products, auto-in-china says XPeng launched the G9L on Sept 17 with second-generation VLA driver assistance on specified versions, a manufacturer claim. The material has no Huawei ADS or BYD God's Eye release; Huawei's Yinwang unit and BYD appear only in the lamp-standard drafting group.
6. Competitive landscape and what to watch
Chapter 5 covered cars that customers already own; this chapter draws Chapters 2 to 5 into a regional picture, a reader-by-reader reading of the month and a dated watch-list. It adds no new facts, and every date is judged against Oct 24, 2026.
6.1 The competitive picture by region
United States. Three operators compete on different kinds of evidence. Waymo leads on rider-facing milestones: 14 cities with fully autonomous trips on Sep 1, open access in San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa from Oct 14, and Las Vegas airport access from Oct 21. Its weekly volume is a press figure and its 271.3 million rider-only miles are self-reported through June. Tesla reports 3.1 million no-monitor miles in six cities, 68% of them in Austin, and names four more cities without dates. Zoox charges fares in Las Vegas, holds a NHTSA exemption of 2,500 vehicles per 12 months and gives no fleet count.
China. Chinese operators give the more checkable fleet numbers. Pony.ai had 1,975 robotaxis at Jun 30 and targets over 3,500 by year-end, and WeRide reported over 1,800 on Sep 24. Baidu Apollo Go reported 28 cities on Aug 20. At home, MIIT says over 70% of new cars have L2 and L3 is still a pilot.
Rest of the world. Growth runs through permits and partners: a Waymo testing permit in Toronto with riders targeted for 2028, a London driverless target of Q4 2026 that depends on UK approvals, WeRide permits in nine markets, and Apollo Go on Uber in Dubai.
The month was decided by proof, not launches: US operators widened service areas, Chinese operators published fleet counts, regulators opened files and drafted rules, and only Waymo has a large exposure dataset, which it reports itself.
6.2 What changed and what it means, by reader
| Reader | What changed | Implication | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riders and city officials | Waymo opened three cities to all and added Las Vegas airport; Minneapolis passed a 7-6 driver mandate that the mayor vetoed and the council failed to override | Service reaches more people faster than local rules can change; Minnesota has no AV-specific statute | — |
| Operators | NHTSA opened DP26010 (about 1,000 vehicles, 4 incidents, 0 crashes); Nevada approved 7,000 vehicles in Clark County | Scale depends on permits and on answering regulators; expect agencies to set the pace | — |
| Investors and analysts | Tesla's active FSD subscriptions reached 1.74 million; unsupervised customer cars are an estimate of "around Q2" 2027; Waymo's year-end target needs 2x its reported weekly rides | Read targets as dated claims and compare only figures with the same definition | — |
| Carmakers and suppliers | GM eyes-off Super Cruise is a 2028 target; Rivian early access began Oct 15; China's draft lamp rule limits the marker to L3 and above from Jan 1, 2028 | Hands-free driving expands now, eyes-off is later, and L2 lamp fitments face a draft restriction | — |
| Safety researchers | NHTSA's 1,538 incident reports carry no mileage; Waymo reports 82% fewer injury crashes against a human benchmark | Counts cannot rank companies; independent exposure data is the missing piece | — |
6.3 Key dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect"; the rest are "Upcoming". Targets and estimates are company or executive statements, not commitments.
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Zoox NHTSA exemption starts (2,500 vehicles per 12 months, to Jul 31, 2028) | In effect | Mori Hamada |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nevada NTA permits: Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000, Uber 1,000 | In effect | Sam & Ash Law |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Tesla Cybercab rides begin in Austin; NHTSA audit query AQ26002 opened | In effect | Tesla 8-K; CBT News |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Minneapolis council passes driver mandate 7-6; vetoed Oct 2 | In effect | FOX 9 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | NHTSA opens defect petition DP26010 on Tesla Robotaxi | In effect | NHTSA ODI |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Waymo opens San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa to all | In effect | Waymo blog |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Rivian early-access invitations begin | In effect | Rivian support |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Waymo Las Vegas airport access; Tesla Q3 call | In effect | Waymo blog; Tesla 8-K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Tesla answers to AQ26002 due (reported; another report says Sep 30) | Upcoming | Automotive World |
| Nov 2026 | Cybercab rides in Dallas planned (as reported) | Upcoming | Not a Tesla App |
| Nov 18, 2026 | Pony.ai Q3 results due | Upcoming | Bamboo |
| Dec 9, 2026 | Rivian Autonomy & AI Day | Upcoming | InsideEVs |
| Dec 19, 2026 | Comments close on MIIT draft marker-lamp standard | Upcoming | BigGo |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Year-end targets: Waymo over 1M weekly rides; Pony.ai over 3,500 robotaxis | Upcoming | Unite.AI; Venture Atlas |
| Jan 21, 2027 | NHTSA decision deadline on DP26010 (Sep 23 + 120 days) | Upcoming | Electrek |
| Around Q2 2027 | Tesla customer cars join the Robotaxi fleet (estimate) | Upcoming | The Verge via Shattered |
| Oct 13, 2027 | Ontario pilot regulation O. Reg. 306/15 revoked | Upcoming | Electrek |
| Jan 1, 2028 | Proposed effective date of the ADS marker-lamp standard | Upcoming | BigGo |
| 2028 | Waymo Toronto riders targeted; GM eyes-off Super Cruise | Upcoming | TechCrunch; CNBC |
7. References
This document draws on the following 65 sources, listed in the order they are first cited.
- October 14, 2026 - From the road - Waymo — waymo.com
- Waypoint - The official Waymo blog — waymo.com
- Waymo picks Toronto as first Canadian city, targets riders in 2028 — electrek.co
- Waymo Opens Fully Autonomous Rides to Everyone in Three Cities – Unite.AI — unite.ai
- Pony.ai - Company Profile, Milestones & Funding - Venture Atlas — ventureatlas.org
- WeRide Recognized on Fortune's 2026 Change the World List as the Only Autonomous Driving Company Honored | WeRide Inc. — ir.weride.ai
- Tesla Names Next Robotaxi Cities, Shares Miles Driven & Safety Data - Not a Tesla App — notateslaapp.com
- Minneapolis Mayor on robotaxi regulation veto: ‘Doesn’t make sense’ | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul — fox9.com
- Minneapolis City Council fails to override mayor's robotaxi veto - KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News — kstp.com
- Zoox Robotaxi Crash on the Strip, September 2026. Who Pays? — samandashlaw.com
- Waymo's robotaxis are headed to Canada | TechCrunch — techcrunch.com
- Tesla’s third-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates — moneycontrol.com
- ODI RESUME — static.nhtsa.gov
- NHTSA weighs probe into claims Tesla Robotaxis speed in school zones — electrek.co
- School zone petition adds to Tesla's robotaxi probe pile | Automotive World — automotiveworld.com
- Zoox robotaxi crash on Las Vegas Strip raises questions about driverless safety — news3lv.com
- September 24, 2026 - From the road - Waymo — waymo.com
- What NHTSA's Latest Robotaxi Crash Data Shows — reyeslaw.com
- 2026 Q3 Quarterly Update Deck — assets-ir.tesla.com
- Tesla FSD Delay: Q2 2027 Robotaxi-Only Rollout 2026 — shattered.io
- GM eyes-off driving on track for 2028, Barra says — cnbc.com
- Autonomy Early Access Program - Rivian Support — rivian.com
- China's MIIT Sets Course for Autonomous Driving: L3 Pilots to Advance Prudently, Key Scenarios to Scale Up Faster — BigGo Finance — finance.biggo.com
- China's MIIT Seeks Comment on National Standard for Self-Driving 'Little Blue Light': Blue-Green Only, Banned on L3-and-Below Vehicles — BigGo Finance — finance.biggo.com
- Zoox - Company Profile, Milestones & Funding - Venture Atlas — ventureatlas.org
- What Is Zoox? | Built In — builtin.com
- Uber launches Baidu’s driverless Apollo Go robotaxis in Dubai — scanx.trade
- Driverless Taxis Arrive at Chek Lap Kok: Chinese AI Takes the World’s Toughest Driving Test — bastillepost.com
- Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY) Stock Price & Analysis | Bamboo — investbamboo.com
- Waymo launches autonomous ride service at Las Vegas airport — fox5vegas.com
- Top Autonomous Vehicle Startups by Valuation (2026) – New Market Pitch — newmarketpitch.com
- Waymo Says Robotaxis Had 82% Fewer Injury Crashes Over 270M Miles — eletric-vehicles.com
- Tesla, Inc. — ir.tesla.com
- Waymo opens robotaxi rides to everyone in San Antonio, San Diego, and Tampa — evwire.com
- Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings Call Recap: Everything You Need to Know - Not a Tesla App — notateslaapp.com
- Mayor Frey to veto Minneapolis council-approved robotaxi regulation | MPR News — mprnews.org
- Regulating Driverless Vehicles in the United States: NHTSA's Temporary Exemption for Zoox Robotaxis — morihamada.com
- WeRide Recognized on Fortune's 2026 Change the World List — globenewswire.com
- Minneapolis council advances proposal to mandate human drivers in robotaxis • Minnesota Reformer — minnesotareformer.com
- No drivers? No problem: Minneapolis City Council fails to override mayor's veto on Waymo proposal | kare11.com — kare11.com
- St. Paul City Council president wants robotaxi rules in place before big tech arrives - CBS Minnesota — cbsnews.com
- Autonomous Vehicles In The US: Commercial Momentum Builds As Regulation Stalls | Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer - JDSupra — jdsupra.com
- New Rulemakings Could Reshape Autonomous Vehicle Regulation Nationwide - HeplerBroom — heplerbroom.com
- This Week in AV News: Week of October 12 - Driverless Commute — thedriverlesscommute.com
- Zoox Robotaxi Accident Claims in California | Wise Law — wiseinjuryfirm.com
- Tesla Names Next 4 Robotaxi Cities: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, — basenor.com
- Waymo plans to launch self-driving taxis in Toronto in 2028 — ca.finance.yahoo.com
- XPENG Robotaxi Is Officially Named "XPENG YOYO" — xpeng.com
- Enhanced corporate ties bring more Chinese expertise to fuel Dubai's growth - Chinadaily.com.cn — chinadaily.com.cn
- Waymo's robotaxis had 82% fewer injury crashes over 436 million km — autonext.co
- Robotaxi Safety Report | Tesla — tesla.com
- NHTSA Opens School Zone Review of Tesla Robotaxis | TeslaNorth.com — teslanorth.com
- Tesla robotaxis accused of speeding in school zones, NHTSA weighs probe — cbtnews.com
- Tesla remote operators keep crashing its ‘Robotaxis,’ data shows | Electrek — electrek.co
- Tesla's robotaxis catch the eye of a US safety regulator — again — autos.yahoo.com
- Evidence After a Waymo or Self-Driving Car Crash | Wise Law — wiseinjuryfirm.com
- Tesla FSD 15 to Match Robotaxi Software, Customer Fleet Join in Q2 202 — basenor.com
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript — finance.yahoo.com
- GM Reaffirms 2028 Target for Eyes-Off, Hands-Off Driving | MLQ News — mlq.ai
- From ‘Hands-Free’ to ‘Eyes-Off’: How General Motors Is Simulating Its Way to Autonomous Driving — usnews.com
- Rivian Is Giving Some Owners Early Access To Its Latest Hands-Free Driving Tech — insideevs.com
- Rivian Opens Early Access to Point-to-Point Hands-Free Driving | EV.com — ev.com
- Rivian launches early access for Point-to-Point driving - Drive Tesla — driveteslacanada.ca
- China drafts ban on blue driver-assist lamps below L3, new models from 2028 | GlobalChinaEV — globalchinaev.com
- New Chinese Cars in September 2026: XPENG G9L, Li i9 & AVATR 06T — auto-in-china.com