Robotaxis widened their service areas and regulators opened files, but the month brought no findings and no final rules
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, robotaxi news was about wider service areas, open regulatory files and delayed timelines, not about findings or final rules. Five conclusions explain the month; each opens its evidence and points to the module that holds it. Every status is judged against Oct 24, 2026.
Five conclusions
Scale shows in service areas and miles, but only Chinese operators publish dated fleet counts
Waymo opened San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa to everyone on Oct 14 and added Las Vegas airport access on Oct 21. Its weekly volume of more than 500,000 paid rides is a press report, and a company target of over 1 million a week by year-end would need 2x in about ten weeks.
Cities pushed back, and the pushback did not stick
Minneapolis passed a human-monitor mandate 7-6 on Oct 1; the mayor vetoed it on Oct 2 and the override failed. Permits elsewhere kept widening, and Tesla's next four cities are announced, not launched.
Safety produced open files, not findings
NHTSA opened defect petition DP26010 on Oct 9; it covers about 1,000 vehicles, four incidents and no crashes, with a decision due around Jan 21, 2027. A Zoox vehicle and a car collided on the Las Vegas Strip on Sep 25. Counts and company data cannot be read as findings.
In production cars, supervised systems sell and eyes-off systems are targets
Tesla's FSD (Supervised) attach rate passed 75% of new North American deliveries, while unsupervised customer cars are an executive estimate of "around Q2" 2027. GM's eyes-off Super Cruise is a 2028 target.
China's rules are drafts, and L3 is a pilot
MIIT says more than 70% of new passenger cars have L2 driver assistance and the first L3 pilots have begun. Its draft ADS marker-lamp standard takes comments until Dec 19, so nothing is in effect.
Operators at a glance
| Operator | Cities | Fleet | Weekly rides | Latest milestone | Status and source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waymo | 14 cities with fully autonomous trips (Sep 1) | Not disclosed in the material | Over 500,000 paid (press report) | Las Vegas airport, Oct 21 | Shipping, phasedWaymo; Electrek |
| Tesla Robotaxi | 6 with no in-car monitor; Bay Area with safety driver | Not disclosed; over 300 Cybercabs in Austin (Oct 10) | Not disclosed; 3.1M miles, Jan 22 to Oct 18 | Safety report, Oct 21 | Company-reportedDP26010 openTesla; Automotive World; NHTSA ODI |
| Zoox | Las Vegas, paid since Aug 10; free in San Francisco | Not disclosed; 30 to 100 reported | Not disclosed | Strip crash, Sep 25 | Police investigatingVenture Atlas; Built In; KSNV |
| Baidu Apollo Go | 28 (Aug 20) | Not stated | About 246,000 in Q1 (our estimate) | Uber launch in Dubai, Aug 20 | ReportedScanX; Bastille Post |
| Pony.ai | Not stated; target over 20 by year-end | 1,975 at Jun 30; target over 3,500 | Not disclosed | Gen-7 testing in Manchester, Oct 14 | Company-reportedPony.ai (via Venture Atlas) |
| WeRide | Over 60 cities in 13 countries (all AV types) | Over 1,800 robotaxis of about 3,400 AVs (Sep 24) | Not disclosed | Fleet update, Sep 24 | Company-reportedWeRide |
How to read the status labels
Only Chinese operators publish dated fleet counts, while US operators publish miles, cities and rider milestones
Ten key figures, operator by operator, each with its reporter, basis and date. Definitions differ across rows (cities, rides, miles, vehicles), so do not add or rank them against each other.
Key figures by operator
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waymo cities with public autonomous rides | 14 | Sep 1, 2026 | Company-reported | Waymo (via Unite.AI) |
| Waymo open to all: San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa | 3 cities, incl. San Antonio airport | Oct 14, 2026 | In effect | Waymo blog |
| Waymo Las Vegas airport | Terminals 1 and 3; current riders first | Oct 21, 2026 | Shipping, phased | Waymo blog |
| Waymo paid rides per week | >500,000 | Oct 16, 2026 | Reported (not Waymo) | Electrek |
| Tesla Robotaxi, no in-car monitor | 6 cities, 3.1M miles | Jan 22 to Oct 18, 2026 | Company-reported | Tesla (via Not a Tesla App) |
| Tesla Cybercabs in Austin | >300 | Oct 10, 2026 | Company statement | Tesla (via Automotive World) |
| Zoox Las Vegas | Paid since Aug 10; fleet 30 to 100 | Sep 2026 | Reported; no company count | Venture Atlas; Built In |
| Baidu Apollo Go | 28 cities | Aug 20, 2026 | Reported | ScanX |
| Pony.ai robotaxis | 1,975 | Jun 30, 2026 | Company-reported | Pony.ai (via Venture Atlas) |
| WeRide robotaxis | >1,800 (of about 3,400 AVs) | Sep 24, 2026 | Company-reported | WeRide |
Tesla Robotaxi autonomous miles by city
Electrek reports more than 500,000 paid rides a week (Oct 16). In February co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said Waymo was "on track to serve over one million rides per week by the end of this year".
Do not compare Baidu's 246,000 with Waymo's 500,000: basis, period and reporter all differ.
The nearest Waymo vehicle counts are recall populations of 3,791 (May) and 3,871 (June 2026). Waymo's own pages in the material give no weekly-ride or fleet figure.
Operator detail
On Oct 14 Waymo opened service to anyone in San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa, saying it had welcomed "hundreds of thousands of riders" there since opening "earlier in the year". That counts riders, not rides. First public riders came on Feb 24 in San Antonio and Sep 1 in San Diego and Tampa.
Las Vegas airport access began Oct 21 for existing riders, inside a 24-square-mile area, with more riders added gradually. Toronto (Oct 16) and Madrid (Oct 20) are groundwork announcements, not service.
Tesla discloses no fleet size. It said on Oct 10 that more than 300 Cybercabs were operating in Austin, though Electrek notes few are active at once. An EVwire headline gives 349 Texas Cybercab registrations on Oct 15, and NHTSA's petition file estimates about 1,000 Model Y and Cybercab vehicles in scope (Oct 9). These are operating, registration and regulatory counts, so we do not reconcile them.
Tesla's Q3 update says Cybercab rides began Sep 3 in Austin. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville and San Antonio are announced with no dates; Bloomberg notes no new city since July. Cybercab rides in Dallas are planned for November (as reported).
Zoox has charged fares in Las Vegas since Aug 10 (Harry Reid airport from Sep 3) and gives free rides in San Francisco pending California permits.
Fleet figures conflict: about 65 in Las Vegas (Aug 10, Venture Atlas), about 100 (TechCrunch, Sep, via Built In) and over 30 per an independent tracker. Zoox declined to give a count. We follow none as company data and use 30 to 100 as the bracket.
The material has no Q3 figure, and Baidu's Q3 report date is not stated. Its Q1 2026 report showed 3.2 million fully driverless rides in the quarter, over 22 million cumulative trips and 27 cities (via Bastille Post). Over 13 weeks that is about 246,000 rides a week on average (our estimate).
On Aug 20, ScanX reported 28 cities and 350 million autonomous kilometres, 240 million fully driverless, as Apollo Go launched on Uber in Dubai.
Q2 results (Aug 18) showed 1,975 robotaxis at Jun 30, revenue of $36.2 million (+68.8%) and robotaxi service revenue of $12.1 million, which is 33% of revenue.
The year-end target is above 3,500 robotaxis in over 20 cities, needing 1,525 more (+77%). No later fleet figure exists; Q3 results are due Nov 18. Gen-7 testing began in Manchester on Oct 14 with a safety driver and no passengers.
On Sep 24 WeRide reported about 3,400 autonomous vehicles, over 1,800 of them robotaxis, in 13 countries and over 60 cities. An earlier secondary summary said 40 cities in 11 countries; we follow the company's dated figure. Its Middle East robotaxi fleet was about 400 at Jul 31.
Guangzhou averaged over 21 rides per vehicle per day, and Punggol in Singapore had served more than 12,000 unique riders by Sep 15. H1 revenue was $51.0 million (+73%) and Q2 $34.2 million (+82%), implying Q1 of $16.8 million.
Cities pushed back and the pushback did not stick, while permits elsewhere kept widening
This module covers who allowed the fleets and where cities resisted. Filter the table by status; each item shows its date and its state as of Oct 24, 2026.
Permits and rules at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis driver mandate (Council Action 2026-034) | Passed 7-6; human monitor at the controls; effective Oct 2027 | Oct 1 | Vetoed Oct 2; override failed | FOX 9; MPR; KSTP |
| Waymo Toronto | Provincial permit for manual driving and testing; riders targeted 2028 | Oct 16 | In effect (testing only) | TechCrunch |
| Nevada NTA, Clark County | Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000, Uber 1,000 | Aug 20 | In effectContext | Sam & Ash Law |
| Zoox NHTSA exemption | 2,500 vehicles per 12 months; parts of 8 FMVSS | Jul 31, 2026 to Jul 31, 2028 | In effectContext | Mori Hamada |
| Tesla next four cities | Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio; no dates | Oct 21 | Announced | Bloomberg via Moneycontrol |
| China ADS marker-lamp standard | Comment to Dec 19, 2026; proposed effective Jan 1, 2028 | Oct 20 | Proposed | BigGo |
| WeRide Europe permits | Spain national L4 permit; Switzerland driverless permit | By Sep 24 | Company statement | WeRide |
Where the rules stand
Ordinance advances, with two members absent
Council passes the "Workers Drive Minneapolis" ordinance
Mayor Jacob Frey calls it a "backdoor ban"
Nine votes needed, two-thirds of 13 (13 × 2/3 = 8.7, rounded up)
A city licence and a human safety monitor with a driver's licence and immediate access to steering, braking and acceleration, paid minimum wage, effective October 2027. The mayor cited ignored issues such as curbside management, emergency response and liability.
KSTP reports 7-5; KARE says supporters were two votes short, which implies seven. Both agree it failed; we follow KSTP. The meeting date is not stated ("Thursday"). Four sponsors say they are restarting the legislative process.
Minnesota has no AV-specific statute, and a spring bill failed. In 2024 the Legislature removed city power over driver pay after a council override. St. Paul's council president proposed a study of AV rules before any operator arrives; the outcome is not in the material.
There is still no comprehensive federal AV law. The SELF DRIVE Act of 2026 (H.R. 7390) went to the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Feb 10 and shows no further movement. On Jul 30 NHTSA granted Zoox a two-year Part 555 exemption, effective Jul 31, 2026 to Jul 31, 2028, covering portions of eight FMVSS and capped at 2,500 vehicles in any 12 months.
A proposed Part 555 update and a $5 million NHTSA partnership with SAE ITC closed comment in August; no final rule appears in the material. FMCSA's five-year exemption letting driverless trucks use warning beacons instead of triangles took effect Oct 7.
Texas, Arizona and Florida allow testing without a human driver, New York requires a licensed safety driver, and California separates testing and deployment permits. In California, Zoox still carries riders free under a CPUC pilot permit, has no DMV deployment permit, and was reported in mid-September to have applied for one.
In effect (context). Zoox's 100-vehicle statewide cap expired Sep 25, and an updated permit lifts it. Basenor says Nevada's DMV approved Tesla on Aug 20; the other sources name the NTA, and we follow them.
On Oct 21 Tesla said Phoenix, Las Vegas, Jacksonville and San Antonio would come "soon", with no timeline. Bloomberg adds that Tesla cleared "one of its last regulatory hurdles in Arizona" the previous month, without detail. We treat all four cities as announced, not launched.
Waymo says Ontario approved its entry into the Automated Vehicle Pilot Program and gave it a provincial permit for manual driving and testing, with riders targeted in 2028. Electrek notes that Waymo's post names no permit; we follow the reports of the company's statement. The pilot regulation (O. Reg. 306/15) is revoked on Oct 13, 2027, and Ontario has not said what replaces it.
City-permit material for the window is thin. XPENG says it obtained Guangzhou's remote testing qualification in August and opened invitation-code registration on Oct 8 (company release). MIIT opened comment on a mandatory standard limiting the ADS marker lamp to L3-and-above vehicles (Oct 20, comment to Dec 19), and a vice minister said on Oct 21 that market-access pilots will advance "prudently". Nothing new was found for Beijing, Shenzhen or Wuhan.
The UAE approved federal rules on inspection, registration, licensing and testing of self-driving vehicles in September (China Daily). WeRide says it holds permits in nine markets, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Spain's first national L4 passenger permit and Switzerland's driverless permit. Waymo's London driverless target of Q4 2026 depends on the UK finalising approvals, and Munich approvals are pending.
For example Waymo's Toronto permit
For example Texas, Arizona and Florida rules
For example Zoox fares in Las Vegas since Aug 10
Safety produced open files, not findings, and the only large exposure dataset is Waymo's own
Allegations, investigations, company data and published counts are kept apart below. The window produced new files, not findings: a Tesla petition, a Tesla audit query and a Zoox police inquiry are open.
Keep four things apart
Allegation
An unnamed petitioner alleges Tesla Robotaxis exceed posted limits in active school zones and supplied three video links (DP26010).
Investigation or open file
NHTSA DP26010 (opened Oct 9) and audit query AQ26002 (opened Sep 3); Nevada Highway Patrol on the Zoox Strip crash (Sep 25); NHTSA's Santa Monica investigation (Jan 2026 strike).
Company data
Waymo's hub: 271.3M miles, 82% fewer injury crashes (through Jun 2026). Tesla's page: 2.95M Texas miles (Jan 22 to Oct 18). Selected by the companies; no independent check in the material.
Published counts
NHTSA Standing General Order reports: 1,538 incidents and 154 alleged injury through Aug 2026. No mileage, so no company ranking.
Findings in the window
No defect found in DP26010, fault in the Zoox crash not determined, and no new Waymo recall.
Safety ledger, Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHTSA DP26010, Tesla Robotaxi school zones | About 1,000 vehicles (estimate); 4 incidents, 0 crashes | Opened Oct 9; due about Jan 21, 2027 | Open petition; no defect finding | NHTSA ODI |
| NHTSA AQ26002, Cybercab certification | 21 requests | Opened Sep 3; answers due Oct 30 | Open audit queryReported | Automotive World |
| Zoox crash, Las Vegas Strip | 1 other vehicle; no passengers aboard | Sep 25 | Police investigating | KSNV |
| NHTSA Standing General Order (SGO) ADS reports | 1,538 incidents; 154 alleged injury | Through Aug 2026 | Published counts, not rates | Reyes Law |
| Waymo Safety Impact hub | 271.3M miles; 82% fewer injury crashes | Through Jun 2026 | Company-reported | Waymo |
| Tesla Robotaxi safety page | 2.95M Texas miles | Jan 22 to Oct 18 | Company-reported | Tesla |
| Waymo recalls | 6 since Feb 2024 | Latest Jun 2026 | Fixed by software (reported) | eletric-vehicles.com |
Waymo rider-only miles by city (millions)
Injury-crash reduction by city
| City | Miles (M) | Fewer injury crashes |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 92.1 | 71% |
| SF Bay Area | 82.4 | 90% |
| Los Angeles | 67.1 | 66% |
| Austin | 21.1 | 84% |
| Atlanta | 8.6 | 88% |
The IIHS study (July) found 81% fewer injury crashes and 68% fewer police-reportable crashes over about 50 million miles in 2021 to 2024. Tesla's 2.95 million miles are about 1.1% of Waymo's 271.3 million, so any Tesla rate carries far wider uncertainty.
File by file
NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation opened it on Oct 9, after receiving the petition on Sep 23. It covers MY 2026 Tesla Robotaxis (Model Y and Cybercab) with the automated driving system engaged. ODI's tally is four incidents (one ODI report, three social media reports) and zero crashes, injuries or fatalities. ODI will decide whether to grant or deny the petition; that is neither a recall nor a preliminary evaluation, and no defect has been found.
The deadline is 120 days from receipt: Sep 23 + 120 days = Jan 21, 2027 (49 CFR Part 552, per Electrek). A grant opens a formal investigation, which can end in a recall. The 1,000 figure is NHTSA's estimate of the covered population; Electrek suggests it may count certified rather than active vehicles.
According to CBT News, NHTSA opened it on Sep 3, the day Tesla began Cybercab service in Austin, to test how a car without a steering wheel or pedals was certified; Automotive World gives 21 requests. Sources conflict on the deadline: Electrek (Oct 12) says answers were due Sep 30; Automotive World says Oct 30 after a 30-day extension. We follow the later report. Oct 30 is still ahead, and NHTSA has not published Tesla's answers.
It covers Robotaxi driving with no safety monitor from Jan 22 to Oct 18, 2026 and reports 2.95 million Texas miles (95% of its total, implying about 3.1 million), no airbag deployments of its own and no pedestrians or cyclists hit. This is Tesla's own selection of events and miles, with no independent check in the material.
Electrek counts five Tesla crashes in which a remote operator was driving, two of them new, both in August. In Dallas the car moved at about 0.40 mph into an SUV, and in Austin at about 1 mph into a dumpster, both with property damage only. Tesla has 36 unique Robotaxi incident reports, up from 22 in July, and does not disclose how often operators intervene, so no rate exists.
A driverless Zoox and a Nissan Murano collided on southbound Las Vegas Boulevard at Four Seasons Drive, shortly before 8:20 a.m. Zoox said no passengers were aboard and that it would examine the lead-up and aftermath. The Murano's driver went to hospital with a minor upper-body injury, per police via News 3. Nevada Highway Patrol took over the investigation, and fault has not been determined.
A June software recall of 105 Zoox robotaxis after one drove into a smoke-filled fire scene.
Waymo added no new recall in the window. It has filed six NHTSA recalls since Feb 2024, all fixed by software. The latest three covered 3,067 vehicles (Dec 2025, school buses), 3,791 (May 2026, San Antonio floodwater) and 3,871 (June 2026, freeway construction zones).
NHTSA's investigation of the Jan 2026 strike on a child near a school remains open; the child had minor injuries. Waymo says the car braked from about 17 mph to under 6 mph before contact (company statement).
An analysis of the release counts 1,538 distinct ADS incidents through August 2026. Waymo is the reporting entity for 1,273 (82.8%), then Avride 81, Zoox 77 and Tesla 36. Of the 1,538, 154 (10.0%) alleged an injury, two of them fatal. Quarterly counts rose from 194 (Q3 2025) to 388 (Q2 2026), about 2.0x. The file has no mileage, so it cannot rank companies or show whether risk rose.
Sources disagree on the cutoff: one says reports were received through Sep 15, another that the release is dated Sep 15 and covers reports through Aug 17. We follow the second, but NHTSA's own release is not in the material.
Waymo is the only operator in the material with exposure data. Its hub reports (through June 2026, posted Sep 24) 271.3 million rider-only miles, 841 fewer injury-causing crashes (82%) and 55 fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes (95%) than a human benchmark. The "841 people" claim assumes at least one injured person per crash.
The independent IIHS study (July) found 81% fewer injury crashes and 68% fewer police-reportable crashes over about 50 million miles in 2021 to 2024.
- Jan 21, 2027: Sep 23 + 120 days (49 CFR Part 552, per Electrek).
- 3.0 vs 57.8: 0.011 vs 0.213 serious crashes per million miles over 271.3 million miles, a gap of about 55.
- 1.1%: Tesla's 2.95 million miles ÷ Waymo's 271.3 million.
- 82.8% and 10.0%: 1,273 and 154 of the 1,538 SGO incidents.
- 271.3 million: 92.1 + 82.4 + 67.1 + 21.1 + 8.6 miles across five cities.
- About 2.0x: SGO quarterly counts, 194 (Q3 2025) to 388 (Q2 2026).
In production cars, supervised systems sell, eyes-off systems are targets and China's rules are drafts
These are systems customers already own, where the human stays responsible. The month's news was about timelines, subscriptions and draft rules, so every item below carries its status.
Production-car items at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla FSD (Supervised) attach rate, North America | >75% of new deliveries | Q3 2026, reported Oct 21 | Reported | Tesla |
| Tesla active FSD subscriptions | 1.74 million | End Q3 2026 | Reported | Tesla |
| Unsupervised FSD, customer cars | "Around Q2" 2027, fleet opt-in | Stated Oct 21 | Estimate | Elluswamy via The Verge |
| GM eyes-off Super Cruise | 2028, Escalade IQ | Oct 12 | Target | CNBC |
| Rivian Point-to-Point hands-free | Late 2026 limited; 2027 broad | Invites from Oct 15 | Early access | Rivian |
| China L2 share of new cars | >70% | Oct 21 | Official statement | MIIT via BigGo |
| ADS marker lamp rule | L3+ only; from Jan 1, 2028 | Draft Oct 20 | Draft | BigGo |
Tesla active FSD subscriptions (millions)
An analyst put annual recurring revenue near $1 billion and Tesla said the number was right (a call recap, not a filing).
Elluswamy: "we suspect sometime around Q2 of next year is when we can turn on customer vehicles to join the robotaxi fleet" (The Verge, via Shattered). It is an executive estimate from an earnings call, not a release, and depends on Tesla's own geofences and fleet management.
Who ships what
Tesla reported Q3 2026 on Oct 21 (Form 8-K). The FSD (Supervised) attach rate reached over 75% of new North American deliveries, "a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase", and active subscriptions rose to 1.74 million. The deck's series is 1.04 million (Q3 2025), 1.10, 1.28, 1.48 and 1.74 million.
Not a Tesla App says first use is limited to select US regions and "probably only for highway use", while Shattered says Robotaxi currently avoids highways. Shattered calls the timeline a "delay", but the material has no earlier customer-car date, so we follow Elluswamy's wording.
BASENOR quotes Elluswamy that "pretty soon" Tesla can release Robotaxi's software to customers as FSD 15, with "late 2026" as a target attributed only to "Tesla statements". HW3 parity is unconfirmed, and "FSD 15 Lite" is community speculation. The material holds no Tesla statement on HW3.
Not a Tesla App says FSD is approved in nine countries, with an EU-wide vote expected in December. Musk said he would be "surprised if it takes longer than Q1" 2027, which is his expectation, not a regulatory date.
GM CEO Mary Barra told CNBC on Oct 12 that GM is on track for "eyes off, hands off" in the "'28 time frame", first on the Cadillac Escalade IQ. MLQ notes GM has not specified launch states, road network, pricing or regulatory clearances.
Today's Super Cruise is hands-free but eyes-on, on over 630,000 US and Canadian roads and more than 20 GM models; AP puts Ford's BlueCruise at over 130,000 miles of roads. Roads and miles are different units, so do not compare them.
The invitation-only Autonomy Early Access Program sends invitations on a rolling basis from Oct 15, 2026 to US Gen 2 R1 and R2 owners with an active Autonomy+ subscription, California and Florida first; Gen 1 and Canada are excluded. Point-to-Point hands-free reaches this group in late 2026 and Gen 2 R1 and R2 broadly in 2027.
InsideEVs gives Autonomy+ at $49.99 a month or $2,500 lifetime, with more detail due at Rivian's Dec 9 Autonomy & AI Day. It remains "hands-off but not eyes-off". One report says the software arrives in December; we follow Rivian's "late 2026". The material has no Mercedes, Lucid or Ford rollout news.
At the World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference in Beijing on Oct 21, MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin said more than 70% of new passenger cars sold in China have L2 combined driver assistance and the first batch of L3-capable models has begun road pilots in designated areas. MIIT's Guo Shougang said on Oct 22 that Changan and BAIC received conditional L3 access in December 2025 and a second pilot batch is under way.
XPENG launched the G9L on Sept 17 with second-generation VLA driver assistance on specified versions, a manufacturer claim. On Oct 16 four departments told more than 30 carmakers not to mislead buyers about system limits. The material has no Huawei ADS or BYD God's Eye release.
On Oct 20 MIIT opened comment on five mandatory standards. In the lighting revision (GB 4785), the blue-green "ADS marker lamp" may be fitted only on vehicles with an L3-or-higher system meeting GB 44721 and must light automatically; L2-or-below vehicles may not fit it. The proposed effective date is Jan 1, 2028, with approved models given until the 37th month, which GlobalChinaEV puts at January 2031. Comments close Dec 19, 2026, so nothing is in effect.
Li Auto, XPeng and NIO currently fit blue lamps on L2 cars, which the draft would restrict. Huawei's Yinwang unit and BYD appear only in the lamp-standard drafting group.
The month was decided by proof, not launches, and each region leads on a different kind of evidence
This module draws the earlier modules into a regional picture and a reader-by-reader reading of the month. It adds no new facts, and every date is judged against Oct 24, 2026.
The competitive picture by region
14 cities with fully autonomous trips on Sep 1, open access in San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa from Oct 14, and Las Vegas airport access from Oct 21. Its weekly volume is a press figure and its 271.3 million rider-only miles are self-reported through June.
3.1 million no-monitor miles in six cities, 68% of them in Austin, and four more cities named without dates (announced).
Zoox charges fares in Las Vegas, holds an NHTSA exemption of 2,500 vehicles per 12 months (in effect) and gives no fleet count.
1,975 robotaxis at Jun 30 and a target of over 3,500 by year-end (target).
Over 1,800 robotaxis reported on Sep 24.
28 cities reported on Aug 20. At home, MIIT says over 70% of new cars have L2 and L3 is still a pilot (official statement, Oct 21).
A Waymo testing permit in Toronto, with riders targeted for 2028.
Waymo's London driverless target of Q4 2026 depends on UK approvals; WeRide says it holds permits in nine markets (company statement).
Apollo Go launched on Uber in Dubai on Aug 20.
What changed, by reader
Riders and city officials
What changed. Waymo opened three cities to all and added Las Vegas airport; Minneapolis passed a 7-6 driver mandate that the mayor vetoed and the council failed to override.
Implication. Service reaches more people faster than local rules can change; Minnesota has no AV-specific statute.
Operators
What changed. NHTSA opened DP26010 (about 1,000 vehicles, 4 incidents, 0 crashes); Nevada approved 7,000 vehicles in Clark County.
Implication. Scale depends on permits and on answering regulators; expect agencies to set the pace.
Investors and analysts
What changed. Tesla's active FSD subscriptions reached 1.74 million; unsupervised customer cars are an estimate of "around Q2" 2027; Waymo's year-end target needs 2x its reported weekly rides.
Implication. Read targets as dated claims and compare only figures with the same definition. This page is not investment advice.
Carmakers and suppliers
What changed. GM's eyes-off Super Cruise is a 2028 target; Rivian early access began Oct 15; China's draft lamp rule limits the marker to L3 and above from Jan 1, 2028.
Implication. Hands-free driving expands now, eyes-off is later, and L2 lamp fitments face a draft restriction.
Safety researchers
What changed. NHTSA's 1,538 incident reports carry no mileage; Waymo reports 82% fewer injury crashes against a human benchmark.
Implication. Counts cannot rank companies; independent exposure data is the missing piece.
Read targets as dated claims, compare only figures with the same definition and watch the next dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked In effect; the rest are Upcoming. Targets and estimates are company or executive statements, not commitments.
Watch-list, Jul 31, 2026 to 2028
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Zoox NHTSA exemption starts (2,500 vehicles per 12 months, to Jul 31, 2028) | In effect | Mori Hamada |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nevada NTA permits: Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000, Uber 1,000 | In effect | Sam & Ash Law |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Tesla Cybercab rides begin in Austin; NHTSA audit query AQ26002 opened | In effect | Tesla 8-K; CBT News |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Minneapolis council passes driver mandate 7-6; vetoed Oct 2 | In effect | FOX 9 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | NHTSA opens defect petition DP26010 on Tesla Robotaxi | In effect | NHTSA ODI |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Waymo opens San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa to all | In effect | Waymo blog |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Rivian early-access invitations begin | In effect | Rivian support |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Waymo Las Vegas airport access; Tesla Q3 call | In effect | Waymo blog; Tesla 8-K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Tesla answers to AQ26002 due (reported; another report says Sep 30) | Upcoming | Automotive World |
| Nov 2026 | Cybercab rides in Dallas planned (as reported) | Upcoming | Not a Tesla App |
| Nov 18, 2026 | Pony.ai Q3 results due | Upcoming | Bamboo |
| Dec 9, 2026 | Rivian Autonomy & AI Day | Upcoming | InsideEVs |
| Dec 19, 2026 | Comments close on MIIT draft marker-lamp standard | Upcoming | BigGo |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Year-end targets: Waymo over 1M weekly rides; Pony.ai over 3,500 robotaxis | UpcomingTarget | Unite.AI; Venture Atlas |
| Jan 21, 2027 | NHTSA decision deadline on DP26010 (Sep 23 + 120 days) | Upcoming | Electrek |
| Around Q2 2027 | Tesla customer cars join the Robotaxi fleet (estimate) | UpcomingEstimate | The Verge via Shattered |
| Oct 13, 2027 | Ontario pilot regulation O. Reg. 306/15 revoked | Upcoming | Electrek |
| Jan 1, 2028 | Proposed effective date of the ADS marker-lamp standard | UpcomingDraft | BigGo |
| 2028 | Waymo Toronto riders targeted; GM eyes-off Super Cruise | UpcomingTarget | TechCrunch; CNBC |
Year-end fleet targets, a Q2 2027 customer-car estimate and 2028 eyes-off programmes are company or executive statements, not commitments.
Cities, rides, miles, vehicles, roads and subscriptions are different units, and reporters differ. Compare only figures with the same definition.
Oct 30 (Tesla's answers to AQ26002), Nov 18 (Pony.ai Q3 results), Dec 9 (Rivian), Dec 19 (MIIT comments close) and Jan 21, 2027 (DP26010 deadline).