1. Key takeaways from the month
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, the US tariff system settled onto new legal ground, refunds moved at scale, and the US–China summit produced announcements that are not yet implemented. Five conclusions explain the month; each is supported in the chapter named in brackets, with measures judged against Oct 24.
1. The US tariff wall now rests on Section 232 and Section 301, not on IEEPA. The Supreme Court held on Feb 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs, the Section 122 bridge expired on Jul 24, and a Section 301 action with 10% and 12.5% tiers has applied to about 60 economies since then. Section 232 carries the product rates: 50% on steel and aluminum under Annex I-A, and 100% general, 15% for the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland, and 0% for the UK on patented pharmaceuticals. Penn Wharton puts the effective rate at 7.1% in August, 24.3% for China. [Chapter 2]
2. Refunds are flowing, with gaps. By Oct 2, CBP had accepted $136.6B and sent $126.0B (92%) through CAPE, with $1.1B on hold for missing bank details, and a class was certified on Oct 8 in Freestyle World. [Chapter 2]
3. The US–China summit announced cuts; none is implemented. After the Sept 23–25 visit, the two sides announced that goods worth about $30B each way (2024 trade) would be recommended for reduced tariffs, and the truce was extended from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027. Capital Economics puts the average US tariff on China at about 22% falling to 20.5%. [Chapter 3]
4. Agreements moved slowly. The only dated formal act in the window was USTR's Oct 2 consultation on the 2027 USMCA review, with comments due Jan 12, 2027. The US–Mexico talks are reported as stalled and Secretary Rubio said on Oct 20 that a "small number of items" remain on the India deal. [Chapter 4]
5. Trade is growing on AI goods, and remedies keep widening. The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise volume forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% in March, with AI-enabling goods behind 47% of value growth, and the US August deficit was $105.6B on record imports of $420.8B. Chinese amine compounds drew a US petition on Sep 29 and the ITC made a final affirmative solar finding on Oct 14. [Chapters 5, 6]
1.1 Measures at a glance
| Issuer | Measure | Scope | Effective | Status (Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTR | Section 301 forced-labor action | 10% and 12.5% tiers, about 60 economies | Jul 24, 2026 | In effect (context) | Argents |
| Commerce | Section 232 pharmaceuticals | 100% general; 15% EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland; 0% UK | Final phase Sep 29, 2026 | In effect | WilmerHale |
| BIS | "U.S. content" notice for metal tariffs | 25% on non-U.S. content, 15% floor | Oct 14, 2026 | In effect | Diaz Trade Law |
| CBP | IEEPA refunds through CAPE | $136.6B accepted by Oct 2 | Phase 3 from Oct 6 | In effect | StartBusinessByState |
| US and China | Reduced tariffs on about $30B each way | Recommended | Not implemented | Announced | White House |
| US and China | Truce extension | Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027 | Announced | Announced | MOFCOM via Global Times |
| USTR | USMCA 2027 review consultation | Comments due Jan 12, 2027 | Oct 2, 2026 | Open | USTR |
| Commerce, ITC | Amine compounds from China | AD and CVD petition | Filed Sep 29, 2026 | ITC preliminary phase | Federal Register |
2. Tariff adjustments: United States
Chapter 1 gave the month's headline conclusions; this chapter sets out the US measures behind them. Measures dated before Sep 24 are labelled "context", those dated Sep 24 to Oct 23 are "window", and later dates are "upcoming".
2.1 Rate comparison by product category
| Category | Measure (issuer, basis) | Rate | Effective | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most goods, ~60 economies | USTR, Section 301 forced-labor action | 10% tier (incl. Canada, Mexico, India, UK); 12.5% tier (incl. China, Vietnam). EU, Taiwan 10% and Japan, Korea, Switzerland 12.5%, inclusive of MFN | Jul 24, 2026 | In effect (context); two CIT suits pending |
| Same goods, before Jul 24 | President, Section 122 | 10% global surcharge | Feb 24 to Jul 23, 2026 | Expired Jul 24 (context); CIT ruled it unlawful May 7, stayed on appeal |
| Reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs | President, IEEPA | Several rates; held unlawful | Collection stopped Feb 24, 2026 | Terminated (context); refunds under way |
| Brazil | USTR, Section 301 | 25% on most imports | Jul 22, 2026 | In effect (context) |
| China, legacy | USTR, Section 301 Lists 1–4A | 25% (Lists 1–3), 7.5% (4A); up to 100% on EVs. Adding 12.5% gives 25 + 12.5 = 37.5% on List 1–3 goods | 2018–Jan 1, 2026 | In effect (context) |
| China, 178 excluded lines | USTR, Section 301 exclusions (HTS 9903.88.69, .70) | Exclusion from 301 duty | Through Nov 9, 2026 | Expiry upcoming; no extension announced |
| Steel, aluminum, copper, derivatives | Commerce/President, Section 232 (Proc. 11021) | 50% Annex I-A; 25% Annex I-B; 15% combined cap, Annex III; 200% Russian aluminum | Apr 6, 2026 | In effect (context); Annex III relief to Dec 31, 2027 |
| Canada/Mexico USMCA metals (Annex I-C) | Section 232 (Proc. 11032) | 25% on non-U.S. content, floor 15% | Jun 8, 2026–Dec 31, 2027 | In effect; U.S.-content definition Oct 14 (window) |
| Patented pharmaceuticals | Section 232 (Proc. 11020) | 100% general; 15% EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland; 0% UK | Jul 31 (listed firms); Sep 29, 2026 (others) | In effect; final phase Sep 29 (window) |
| Vehicles, trucks, buses | Section 232 | 25% / 25% / 10% | Apr 3 and Nov 1, 2025 | In effect (context) |
| Polysilicon | Section 232 | Minimum price plus 15% | Dec 4, 2026 | Scheduled (upcoming) |
| Canadian goods | President, Section 338 | Additional 50%, scope modified; stacks on 232 | Sep 15, 2026 | In effect (context) |
Since IEEPA fell, the US tariff wall rests on Section 232 (by product, up to 100%) and Section 301 (by country, 10–12.5%). Only the IEEPA layer is being repaid.
Two dates need care. The Section 301 exclusions run "through 11:59 p.m." on Nov 9, 2026 according to Argents and Summit Sourcing, the latter quoting the USTR notice. Thomson Reuters, Gateway Lines and The Russo Firm give Nov 10. Both fit: Nov 9 is the last day covered and Nov 10 is the first day without cover, and we follow that reading.
2.2 IEEPA aftermath, refunds and revenue
The Supreme Court held 6 to 3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on Feb 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs. The 150-day Section 122 bridge expired on Jul 24 and Section 301 duties replaced it. CBP told the Court of International Trade that about $166 billion was paid by 330,000 importers on 53 million entries.
Refunds run through CBP's CAPE system. Phase 1 (since Apr 20) covers unliquidated entries and those liquidated within 80 days. Phase 2 began Jun 29. The table uses CBP's court filings as compiled by StartBusinessByState.
| As of | Accepted | Sent to Treasury | Share sent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | $104.3B | $71.1B | 68% |
| Jul 31 | $128.7B | $100.0B | 78% |
| Aug 21 | $132.5B | $106.6B | 80% |
| Sep 11 | $134.7B | $122.0B | 91% |
| Oct 2 | $136.6B | $126.0B | 92% (126.0 ÷ 136.6) |
Acceptances are flattening: +$3.8B, +$2.2B and +$1.9B over the three-week gaps (132.5 − 128.7; 134.7 − 132.5; 136.6 − 134.7). About 20,362 refunds worth $1.1 billion were on hold for missing bank details. A court order put the Sep 11 figure at $134.2B, but we use CBP's filing.
Phase 3 opened Oct 6 for importers that sued and hold court-ordered reliquidation. By noon, CBP had accepted 477 declarations covering 425,517 entries. On Oct 8 Judge Eaton certified a class of importers that paid IEEPA duties and have not sued (Freestyle World). Troutman Pepper Locke (law firm) notes that certification is not a refund order. Per Peacock Tariff Consulting, the government's appeal against relief for non-plaintiffs is pending at the Federal Circuit, so non-filers with finally liquidated entries stay outside CAPE. The gap is about $30B: 166 − 136.6 = 29.4, close to the figure Peacock attributes to the court. Section 122 duties are outside CAPE according to Great Lakes Customs Law, and the Section 301 forced-labor challenge awaits a first CIT decision.
Effective rate and revenue. Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) puts the average effective tariff rate at 7.1% in August 2026, up from 6.7% in July and 2.3% in January 2025. China faces 24.3%, steel and aluminum 39.8%, and vehicles 13.8%. USMCA exemption claims reached 81.4% of Canada–Mexico imports. The 24.3% China figure is duties ÷ imports; the 37.5% above is a legal stack on List 1 goods, so they are different measures. Treasury figures reported by Reuters (via Newsweek) show about $145B refunded in fiscal 2026 and net tariff income down 11% to about $173B. Implied gross receipts are about 173 + 145 = $318B. Eco3min's reading of Treasury statements shows June refunds of $49.18B and negative net customs receipts in May (−$0.04B), June (−$25.56B) and July (−$8.55B). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in August that fiscal 2026 net customs revenue would be about $250B below its February projection (estimate).
2.3 Section 232 and 301 details
Pharmaceuticals (window). Proclamation 11020, signed Apr 2, 2026, sets 100% on patented drugs and ingredients in Annex I. The final phase took effect Sep 29 for firms outside Annex III; listed firms started Jul 31. WilmerHale (law firm) reports that such firms are now generally at 100% unless an exclusion applies. The rate is not added to the ordinary duty; Column 1 applies where it is higher. Reduced and zero rates:
- 15% total, inclusive of Column 1, for specified partners (EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein).
- UK: the April summary said 10%; CBP's Aug 1 guidance confirmed 0% additional duty under HTS 9903.04.63. We follow CBP.
- 20% plus Column 1 for firms with approved onshoring plans through Apr 1, 2030, then 100% from Apr 2, 2030; 0% through Jan 20, 2029 with a Health and Human Services (HHS) pricing agreement.
- Generics and biosimilars 0%, to be reviewed within a year. BIS guidance of Sep 21 added 0% for specialty products (orphan, nuclear, plasma-derived, fertility, cell and gene, antibody-drug conjugates, countermeasures, animal health) from 19 listed jurisdictions or groupings, or on an urgent-health-need request to [email protected].
Metals and U.S. content (window). BIS published FR Doc. 2026-20938 on Oct 14, effective for entries from 12:01 a.m. ET that day. For USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods, "U.S. content" means (1) value from parts wholly obtained, entirely produced or substantially transformed in the US, plus (2) value of US-melted steel or US-smelted aluminum and copper not already counted. The notice sets no filing procedure. CBP's Jun 5 message (CSMS #68855869) still caps the 0% line at 40% of value. Per Forwarder News, 25% × (100% − 40%) = 15%, exactly the floor, so the wider definition only helps goods below the cap; each extra 10 points credited cuts duty by 2.5 points. Diaz Trade Law (law firm) expects CBP may update its guidance.
Section 301 (upcoming). USTR extended 178 China exclusions (164 general, 14 solar equipment). Thomson Reuters says no extension has been announced and the Sep 27–28 "30-for-30" lists have no Federal Register notice yet (see Chapter 3). Also scheduled: suspended port fees on Chinese-built vessels run to Nov 9, with a decision due Nov 10 (according to Argents). USTR opened a second four-year China review on May 6.
3. The US–China summit and the truce
Chapter 2 set out the US tariff stack on Chinese goods; this chapter covers what the Washington state visit changed at the margin, and what is still only announced.
3.1 Outcomes: two readouts, one framework
Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on Sept 23, 2026 and left on Sept 25; the leaders' talks were on Sept 24 and 25. Wilson Sonsini dates the summit Sept 24–26; we follow Sept 23–25, because AP puts Xi's return to Beijing on Saturday Sept 26. The trade results are in the table.
| Item | US position | China position | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Board of Trade and Board of Investment | White House: "operationalized"; Bessent and Greer oversee | MOFCOM: Board of Trade set up; mandate details "released subsequently" | Leaders, Sept 23–25 | In operation; deputies meet at least quarterly |
| $30B-for-$30B tariff cuts | "Recommendations" for more favorable treatment | "Agreed to reduce"; takes effect simultaneously after domestic procedures | Lists: Sept 27 (US), Sept 28 (MOFCOM) | Announced, not implemented |
| Truce extension | Bessent on Fox, Sept 23: conditions stay until Jan 10, 2027; White House had not documented it | MOFCOM: extends the "Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement" from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027 | Sept 23 (US); Sept 28 (China) | Announced by both |
| Coal | China to import at least 10 million metric tons in 2027 and 2028 | Coal tariffs sit inside the framework; no tonnage in this account | Sept 27–28 | Announced |
| AI | "Super Intelligence" Dialogue; incident channel; next exchange by Nov 2026 | "AI dialogue" led by He Lifeng and Bessent; first session held; next before end of November | Sept 25 (US); Sept 28 (China) | Dialogue running; channel "agreed to establish", not yet running |
The governments differ in framing. Washington calls the cuts recommendations, with reductions "determined and implemented in accordance with each side's domestic legal processes". Beijing calls them an agreement and promises simultaneous entry into force. The US names the truce after Busan (October 2025); MOFCOM calls it the Kuala Lumpur arrangement, with the same Nov 10, 2026 expiry. On AI, Xi's remark in the Chinese readout speaks of AI and its misuse, not "super intelligence".
3.2 Goods and rates
The issuers are USTR, the White House and MOFCOM, under the Board of Trade framework rather than a tariff proclamation. Each list carries about $30 billion of 2024 trade.
| Bloomberg figures | US list (Chinese goods) | China list (US goods) |
|---|---|---|
| Entries | 77 | 1,619 |
| Imports covered, 2024 | $32.3B | $29.7B |
| Imports covered, 2025 | $23.2B | $19.3B |
| Change 2024 to 2025 | −28% (23.2 ÷ 32.3 − 1) | −35% (19.3 ÷ 29.7 − 1) |
The 2025 figures sum to 23.2 + 19.3 = $42.5B, which is 10% of the $415B of goods Bloomberg says the two countries exchanged in 2025 (42.5 ÷ 415 = 10.2%). China Briefing gives $468B; we use Bloomberg's figure, the same source as the covered values.
Anadolu reverses the entry counts. We follow AP, Bloomberg, CNN and Thomson Reuters, which all give 1,619 for China's list and 77 for the US list.
- China's list: agricultural goods, fish and seafood, logs and wood, cosmetics and medical devices. Reuters adds corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy and vegetable oils, and says non-seed soybeans are excluded. MOFCOM adds coal.
- US list: small appliances, toys, holiday decorations and children's car seats. AP adds fireworks, tableware, glassware and soccer balls.
- Left out: chips, electric vehicles and batteries. According to Thomson Reuters, rare earths, aircraft, steel, pharmaceuticals, crude and LNG are excluded too, as are toys with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or Ethernet.
Rates. No per-line rate appears in the material. MOFCOM says about 90% of products on each side move to most-favored-nation (MFN) rates. AP says MFN rates are the WTO standard and often in single digits. What happens to the other ~10% is not stated in the material. Capital Economics estimates the average US tariff on China falls from about 22% to 20.5%, a drop of 1.5 points. CNN describes the truce level as 30% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods. Thomson Reuters puts the effective rate on most Chinese goods at about 37.5%. We follow Capital Economics for the deal's effect, because it is the only estimate tied to these lists; the stack itself is Chapter 2's.
The summit produced a framework and a calendar, not a tariff change: both sides announced $30B-for-$30B lists and a truce to Jan 10, 2027, but the material shows no implementing notice from either government.
Announced versus implemented. Neither side gave a timetable. According to Thomson Reuters, the US had issued no Federal Register notice, proclamation or HTSUS Chapter 99 amendment (date of that check not stated).
3.3 The truce, and what remains open
The truce holds two suspensions. China's rare earth export controls, including the 0.1% extraterritorial threshold, are paused. The US BIS Affiliates Rule (50% ownership) is suspended. The US also cut fentanyl-related tariffs to 10% and suspended a Section 301 maritime probe in 2025; the IEEPA tariffs were invalidated in February. As of Oct 21, neither the White House nor BIS had issued a statement or rule confirming the extended Affiliates Rule suspension.
The two governments describe the extra two months differently. Greer called them "compliance periods" to test China's farm and rare earth commitments. MOFCOM called them room to "review and assess" and expects a "positive solution" on a further extension before year-end. Bessent said he did not know whether a bigger deal would be reached by Jan 10.
| Date | Event | Status at Oct 24 |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Section 301 pause on fees for China-linked vessels ends unless extended, according to DSCP; NRF asked for an extension on Sept 23 | Upcoming |
| November 2026 | APEC summit, Shenzhen (day not stated); second AI dialogue by end of November | Upcoming |
| December 2026 | G20, Florida | Upcoming |
| By end-2026 | First meeting of the agricultural working group | Upcoming |
| Jan 10, 2027 | New truce expiry | Upcoming |
Still open: the incident channel has no published definition of an incident, operator or response time. Greer said national-security export controls are "off the table". The White House says only that work on rare earth shipments continues. AP notes a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 partners could add tariffs on China (Chapter 2).
4. Trade agreements and negotiations
Chapter 3 covers the US–China summit and the truce to Jan 10, 2027, so this chapter looks at the United States' other partners. There, the window produced one dated formal act, a USMCA consultation, and a run of statements about deals that are still unsigned.
The material records no newly signed US trade agreement in the window. The only dated formal step is USTR's Oct 2, 2026 USMCA comment request (deadline Jan 12, 2027). India is "very close" but unsigned, and EU and Swiss tariff levels rest on earlier frameworks now applied through the Section 301 and 232 schedules.
4.1 Agreements at a glance
In force means legal text applies; framework means an outline without final text; under negotiation means talks continue. The last two are not tariff changes.
| Partner | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Key terms | Tariff rate | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USMCA (Canada, Mexico) | In force; annual reviews | US declined a 16-year extension; term ends Jul 1, 2036 | Rules unchanged (NFFS) | Review Jul 1, 2026 (context); consultation Oct 2 (window) | USTR; GHY; NFFS |
| US–Mexico | Under negotiation, reported stalled | Autos, steel, aluminum disputed | Autos 25%; steel, aluminum 50% | Reuters Oct 15 | RFD-TV; MSCI |
| US–Canada | No agreement; tariff dispute | Section 338 vs Canadian counter-tariffs | US 50%; Canada 15%, 25%, 50% | Aug 19 and Sep 8 (context, in effect) | Benesch; RVIA |
| EU–US | Framework (2025), applied in tariff schedule | 15% autos, patented drugs; metals 50% | Section 301 top-up to 10% | Aug 21, 2025 (context); snapshot Oct 8 | Legal500; Airlift |
| Switzerland–US | Agreement terms not stated in the material | Rates only | Section 301 top-up to 12.5% | Snapshot Oct 8 | Airlift |
| India–US | Framework (Feb 2026), unsigned | "Small number of items left" | Framework 18%; in effect 10% | Rubio, Oct 20 | AP; Airlift |
| Canada–India | Under negotiation (reported) | Target: G20 Miami, December | Not stated | Date not stated | WWD |
| EU–Philippines | "Substantial agreement" on FTA talks | Not signed | Not stated | Date not stated | EY |
4.2 North America: USMCA review, Mexico talks, Canada
USMCA. On Oct 2, 2026 USTR announced a public consultation ahead of the 2027 joint review, "as directed by Congress", plus a public hearing whose date and location are still to be published. According to the SBA Office of Advocacy, the Federal Register request followed on Oct 5 (cited as 91 FR 63379 by C.H. Robinson). Comments go to Docket USTR-2026-0595 and hearing requests with a testimony summary to Docket USTR-2026-0596, both due Jan 12, 2027, 11:59 p.m. EST (upcoming). According to GHY, rebuttals are due seven calendar days after the hearing ends and remarks are capped at five minutes.
At the first joint review on Jul 1, 2026 (context) the US did not agree to a new 16-year term, so annual reviews follow until all three parties confirm an extension or the term expires on Jul 1, 2036. NFFS notes that this does not terminate the agreement or change its rules.
Mexico. The third bilateral round was scheduled for Jul 21–23 in Mexico City, with steel, aluminum, autos, economic security, labor and agriculture on the agenda. According to MSCI (Oct 5), the fourth round was postponed from late September to October, reportedly for scheduling conflicts. Reuters reported on Oct 15 that progress had stalled, though talks continued. An RFD-TV commentator says Commerce Secretary Lutnick opposes deep cuts to the 25% auto and 50% metals tariffs; that is his claim, not an official statement. Whether the fourth round took place is not stated. Canada. The "new tariff announcement" is context, not a window measure. Per Benesch, three proclamations of Jul 20, 2026 set an additional 50% under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on Canada-origin motor vehicle, alcohol and dairy goods, effective Aug 19. They exclude energy, potash and goods already under Section 232, but apply to USMCA-qualifying goods. According to RVIA, the product scope changed at 12:01 a.m. on Sep 15 after a Sep 8 announcement, and the duty stacks on Section 232. Canada's Finance Department listed 874 items worth C$27.6 billion, at 15%, 25% or 50%, effective Sep 8. Rio Times (Oct 15) says the US applies 50% to roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods. No new Canada measure dated Sep 24–Oct 23 appears in the material.
Because Section 338 applies regardless of USMCA status, the agreement is the baseline while the US acts outside it.
4.3 Europe, Switzerland and India
EU. The 2025 framework (announced Aug 21, 2025; Executive Order 14346 of Sep 5; Federal Register notice Sep 25) set a flat 15% on most EU exports and kept steel, aluminum and copper at 50%, with the EU to remove tariffs on US industrial goods. That is context. The material has no October 2026 EU–US implementation notice, so we use Airlift's Oct 8 snapshot, which shows a Section 301 forced-labor duty, in force since Jul 24, 2026, that tops EU goods up to 10% in total, with 43 exempt HTS lines. EU cars and parts, patented drugs and upholstered furniture pay 15% in total under Section 232, and steel and aluminum pay 50% with no EU partner rate. The 15% IEEPA tariff has not been collected since Feb 24, 2026. On Oct 21 PwC reported that the Court of International Trade heard a challenge, by four small businesses and 25 states, to the Section 301 tariffs on 60 partners including the EU, with a ruling expected "in the coming weeks" (see Chapter 2).
EY reports "substantial agreement" between the EU and the Philippines on FTA talks. According to yesstainless.com, an aggregator, Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 made melt-and-pour origin reporting mandatory for steel imports from Oct 1, 2026, with a 50% out-of-quota duty against 25% before.
| Partner (Airlift, Oct 5–8) | Section 301 duty, in force Jul 24, 2026 | Country-only exempt list | Patented drugs, Section 232 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Top-up to 10% | 43 HTS lines | 15% | Airlift |
| Switzerland | Top-up to 12.5% | 134 HTS lines | 15% | Airlift |
| India | 10% added | Not stated | Not stated | Airlift |
Switzerland. The IEEPA tariff was 39% from Aug 7, 2025 and 15% in total from Nov 14, 2025, and has not been collected since Feb 24, 2026. No US–Swiss agreement text is in the material; the PwC page filed under that title shows only a general round-up. It does show a 15% cap on patented drugs from Switzerland "under the trade agreements" and Switzerland's place among 19 jurisdictions eligible for zero-rate specialty-drug categories under BIS guidance of Sep 23. USAFacts puts the Swiss average effective rate at 3.2% in Aug 2026 against 6.9% for all imports, 4.1 points below Aug 2025 (implied 3.2 + 4.1 = 7.3%).
India. The February 2026 framework would cut the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% in return for Indian concessions. AP says the rate "was reduced to 18%". We follow Airlift: the IEEPA duties have not been collected since Feb 24, and India pays a 10% Section 301 duty plus its ordinary duty; the framework is "not yet in force". In October the tone was mixed. Finance Minister Sitharaman said talks had "plateaued", USTR Greer said an announcement was not "imminent", and Commerce Minister Goyal said the first tranche was in its final stages but would operate only once India gains an edge over peers. On Oct 20 Rubio said "a small number of items" remained and the leaders could sign afterward. Moneycontrol (Oct 21) headlines that the US may offer India better terms than peers.
India is closest, but only as a statement; the EU and Switzerland have rates but no new text in the window.
5. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties
Chapter 4 covered negotiated deals and framework announcements. This chapter covers the other track: case-by-case trade remedies, which run under separate statutes and court review and move on fixed procedural calendars.
5.1 Case table: what moved in the window
"Alleged" means a petitioner's figure, not a Commerce or MOFCOM rate. Dates marked "est." are law-firm schedules, not agency orders.
| Product | Country | Authority | Stage (date) | Rate or finding | Next date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine compounds | China | ITC / Commerce, AD+CVD | Petition 29 Sep; ITC preliminary phase (window) | Alleged AD 261.34–476.13%; CVD "above de minimis" | ITC vote 13 Nov (est.) |
| Crystalline silicon PV cells | India, Indonesia, Laos | ITC, then Commerce | ITC final, affirmative, 14 Oct (window) | Injury found; Commerce final rates set 11 Sep (context) | Orders ~2 Nov; ITC report by 23 Nov |
| Seamless pipe (SSLPP) | Georgia (AD); India (AD+CVD) | Commerce / ITC | Petition 14 Oct (window) | Alleged AD Georgia 113.87–281.24%, India 41.03–63.57% | Initiation 3 Nov (est.) |
| Wooden fence pickets; railway tank cars | China; Mexico | Commerce / ITC | Petitions 24 Sep; 30 Sep (window) | Not stated in the material | Not stated |
| Chassis, subassemblies | China (Vietnam-made scope) | Court of International Trade | Remand 7 Oct (window) | Scope ruling rejected | Redetermination due 5 Jan 2027 |
| Chassis; diamond sawblades | China | ITC | Sunset reviews, affirmative, 21 Oct (window) | Orders stay in place | Reports by 27 Nov / 25 Nov |
| Hot-rolled steel flat | Japan | Commerce | Final review results 14 Oct (window) | NSC 13.96%; Tokyo Steel 0% | Not stated |
| p-Nitrotoluene | EU | MOFCOM | Initiated 3 Oct (window) | No duty; alleged margin above 100% | Conclude by 3 Oct 2027 |
Most numbers in this month's remedy news are allegations or estimated dates. Only the solar investigations and one steel review carry final Commerce rates, and the solar orders had not been published in the sources.
5.2 US cases
Amine compounds (China). Evonik Corporation and Huntsman International LLC filed AD and CVD petitions on 29 Sep 2026. The ITC instituted its preliminary phase (Inv. Nos. 701-TA-808 and 731-TA-1809) in a notice published 5 Oct 2026, 91 FR 63307. The goods are polyurethane-foam catalysts, used mostly in spray insulation, according to Clark Hill. The schedule runs ITC conference 20 Oct, briefs 23 Oct, vote 13 Nov, Commerce preliminary CVD 23 Dec 2026, preliminary AD 8 Mar 2027 (all est.). Commerce initiation was expected 19 Oct; the material does not confirm it happened. No cash deposit applies yet.
The petition's import table (Datamyne and USITC DataWeb) gives unit values we computed (value ÷ quantity):
| Period | Quantity (1,000 lbs) | Value (USD) | Unit value (USD/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 31,763 | 315,122,427 | 9.92 |
| 2024 | 45,447 | 407,463,195 | 8.97 |
| 2025 | 42,104 | 277,130,659 | 6.58 |
| Jan–Jun 2026 | 24,502 | 143,633,056 | 5.86 |
Unit value fell (9.92 − 5.86) ÷ 9.92 ≈ 41% from 2023 to H1 2026. Solar (India, Indonesia, Laos). On 14 Oct 2026 the ITC voted affirmative in the final injury phase (Inv. Nos. 701-TA-772-774 and 731-TA-1756-1758). Commerce's final determinations came on 11 Sep 2026, before the window. According to pv magazine, the final rates are:
| Country | AD (all producers) | CVD | Sum of highest |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 123.04% | 126.09% | 249.13% |
| Indonesia | 94.36% | 73.2–173.7% | 268.06% |
| Laos | 65.43% | 82.03–153.67% | 219.10% |
Sums use the top CVD rate, so they are ceilings. Petitioners' counsel Tim Brightbill (Wiley Rein) expects Commerce orders on 2 Nov; pv magazine says "early November". The ITC report is due 23 Nov. Chassis: court and sunset. In Pitts Enterprises v. United States, Slip Op. 26-121 (7 Oct 2026), Judge Kelly again remanded Commerce's ruling that Vietnam-made chassis with Chinese parts fall under the China orders. According to a law-firm blog, the court found no "unfinished subassembly" category and held that welding is not "any other processing". The China-wide deposits of 177.05% AD and 44.32% CVD (sum 221.37%, "roughly 221%") stay; Commerce's redetermination is due 5 Jan 2027, and the decision is not final. On 21 Oct the ITC found revocation of the China chassis orders and the diamond sawblade AD order likely to bring back injury, so both stay.
Reviews. On 14 Oct Commerce published final Japan hot-rolled results (review period 1 Oct 2023–30 Sep 2024). One sentence of the notice attributes 13.96% to Tokyo Steel, whose margin it gives as zero; we follow NSC. Preliminary review results for Korean and Taiwanese corrosion-resistant steel and Malaysian nails were published on 8 and 14 Oct; their rates are not in the material.
5.3 Non-US cases
China v. EU p-nitrotoluene. MOFCOM Announcement No. 44 of 2026 opened an AD investigation on 3 Oct 2026, after a 14 Sep application by Jiangsu Huaihe Chemical and Hubei Dongfang Chemical. The notice text is not in the material. Per Foresight, the product is Chinese tariff code 29042020; the dumping period is 1 Jul 2025–30 Jun 2026 and the injury period 1 Jan 2022–30 Jun 2026. Registration closed 23 Oct (20 days). MOFCOM expects to finish by 3 Oct 2027, extendable six months. No provisional or definitive duty exists.
MOFCOM says EU prices fell nearly 60% cumulatively over 2022–2025; the alleged margin above 100% comes from the applicants. The trade is small. Geopolitechs reports EU imports of 6,565 t in 2025 (about $3.66 million, 7.14% of Chinese demand) against 9,817 t in 2024, a fall of (9,817 − 6,565) ÷ 9,817 ≈ 33%. The spokesperson tied the case to 28 EU remedy investigations against China since 2025, about half on chemicals. Gap. The blueprint also named Brazil's reviews of Chinese magnesium; no source in the material covers them, so they are left out.
6. Trade data and supply-chain shift
Chapter 5 covered the remedy cases that target specific products; this chapter steps back to the aggregate numbers that show where goods are actually moving. Two official data sets landed in the window: the WTO outlook (Oct 8, 2026) and the BEA/Census August trade release (Oct 6, 2026). UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report (release date not stated in the material) adds a development view, and a PIIE blog questions whether the US import figures for China can be trusted.
6.1 Data table: indicators, periods and basis
| Indicator | Value | Period | Source | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World merchandise trade volume growth, forecast | 3.9% (March: 1.9%) | 2026 | WTO | Volume; forecast (estimate) |
| Same, next year | 4.1% | 2027 | WTO | Volume; forecast (estimate) |
| World merchandise trade, actual | +15% value; +3.5% volume | H1 2026, year on year | WTO | Current US dollars vs volume |
| AI-enabling goods share of value growth | 47% | H1 2026 | WTO | Value; WTO's revised, narrower HS6 list |
| US goods and services deficit | $105.6B (July revised: $92.8B) | Aug 2026 | BEA/Census | Balance of payments, seasonally adjusted |
| US goods and services imports | $420.8B, record | Aug 2026 | BEA/Census | Same |
| US goods deficit with Mexico / Vietnam / China | $27.7B / $24.0B / $16.4B | Aug 2026 | BEA/Census | Census basis, seasonally adjusted |
| US imports from Mexico / Vietnam | $60.6B / $26.5B, both records | Aug 2026 | BEA/Census | Census basis, not seasonally adjusted |
| US-reported imports from China (incl. Hong Kong) vs China-reported exports to US | $158.3B vs $258.1B | Jan–Jul 2026 | PIIE, citing Census and Chinese data | Two national statistics |
| Average US effective tariff rate on China / all countries | 22.8% / 6.9% | Aug 2026 | USAFacts | Duties collected ÷ import value |
| Global trade growth, goods and services | about 4% | 2026 | UNCTAD | Constant prices; projection (estimate) |
The two US country series differ by basis. The text of the release gives the deficit with Mexico as $27.7B and with Vietnam as $24.0B, while the "press highlights" list $27.0B and $25.0B as record deficits on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis. We use the seasonally adjusted figures for rankings and the highlights for "record" claims.
6.2 WTO outlook: AI goods carry the recovery
The WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" update of Oct 8, 2026 lifted 2026 merchandise volume growth to 3.9% from 1.9% in March, and expects 4.1% in 2027 (up from 2.9%, per AP). Commercial services were cut to 3.3% from 4.8%. The 2027 figures depend on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict. All growth figures are forecasts (estimate); the first-half 2026 outturn was +3.5% in volume.
AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers, grew 16% in value in 2024, 31% in 2025 and 67% in H1 2026. They supplied 47% of the rise in world merchandise trade value while being under 15% of trade; ActuIA gives the share as 14.8%. As a consistency check (editor's calculation, rounded inputs), a 14.8% share after 67% growth, in a total that grew 15%, implies a H1 2025 share of 0.148 × 1.15 ÷ 1.67 ≈ 10.2%, and a contribution of 0.102 × 0.67 ÷ 0.15 ≈ 46%, close to the published 47%.
Two cautions. First, value is not volume: the 15% value gain against 3.5% volume implies a price effect of about 1.15 ÷ 1.035 − 1 ≈ 11% (editor's estimate; inputs). The WTO also cites ECB estimates that AI-goods import prices rose 20–30% in H1 2026, according to ActuIA. Second, the 47% cannot be re-derived outside the WTO: the revised HS6 list is not reproduced in the report, according to ActuIA. UNCTAD uses a different yardstick: AI goods were about one sixth of goods trade in 2025 and 42% of its growth. Different year and definition, so we treat 42% and 47% as consistent, not as a revision.
Regional contributions to 2026 merchandise growth are Asia 4.0, North America about 0.5, Europe 0.1 and other regions −0.7 percentage points. These sum to 4.0 + 0.5 + 0.1 − 0.7 = 3.9 (editor's check), so Asia supplies 4.0 ÷ 3.9 ≈ 103% of world growth. Export growth is forecast at 9.9% for Asia and −0.1% for Europe. On AI goods, ActuIA reports Taiwan (14.7%) and China (14.3%) as top exporters in H1 2026, together 29.0%. The WTO names the risk itself: a reversal of AI investment "could also have a significant impact on trade".
The 2026 trade recovery is narrow. AI-enabling goods were under 15% of trade but supplied 47% of its value growth in H1 2026, and Asia supplies more than all of the forecast volume growth (WTO, Oct 8, 2026).
6.3 US import origins and evasion
BEA/Census, Oct 6, 2026 (August data). The deficit rose $12.7B (13.7%) to $105.6B as imports rose $17.2B to a record $420.8B. Check: goods deficit $136.6B − services surplus $31.0B = $105.6B. July goods imports were revised up $4.4B. Capital goods imports hit a record $146.4B, with semiconductors up $2.4B. Year to date the deficit is still $138.2B (19.9%) below the same period of 2025, but the gain was 33.8% through June, as first published on Aug 4. The next release is Nov 4, 2026 (upcoming).
By origin, Mexico ($27.7B) and Vietnam ($24.0B) together ran a deficit of $51.7B, which is 51.7 ÷ 16.4 ≈ 3.2 times the deficit with China ($16.4B); India's was $6.2B. This is one month, and the material does not give the China import level or any change against 2025, so it shows ranking, not displacement. A Research Square preprint (posted Oct 9, 2026; peer-review status not stated) warns against reading Mexican growth as diversion. In its 2015–2025 data on the 2018–19 Section 301 tariffs, Latin American suppliers of tariffed products fell about 27% relative to other non-Chinese suppliers, and Mexico grew by a similar amount in tariffed and untariffed products. Fisher Investments (date not stated) says about 80% of US imports from Mexico were USMCA-exempt, up from under 50% in 2024, without a source in the material.
The full ranking of August deficits (seasonally adjusted, goods and services) is Mexico $27.7B, Vietnam $24.0B, Taiwan $18.3B, China $16.4B, the European Union $11.0B, South Korea $9.4B, Canada $7.1B and India $6.2B. It is a ranking of bilateral balances, not a measure of where production moved.
Evasion. The PIIE (Gregory Auclair; publication date not stated, data through July 2026) finds that Census recorded $158.3B of imports from China in January–July 2026, while China reported $258.1B of exports to the US. The $99.8B gap is 99.8 ÷ 158.3 ≈ 63% of US-recorded imports, nearly five times its 2021–24 average. Annualising, 99.8 ÷ 7 × 12 ≈ $171B, matching PIIE's "exceed $170 billion" projection (estimate). PIIE concludes the drop in US-recorded imports from China "should not be treated as a clean measure" of decoupling or tariff effectiveness. The Coalition for a Prosperous America, an advocacy group, estimates a $70B gap over 13 months from April 2025 between statutory and collected duty on Chinese goods: $4B (4 ÷ 70 ≈ 6%) evasion and $66B structural leakage. It separately flags $14B of $75B diverted trade (19%) as consistent with transshipment, $9B of it via ASEAN (estimate; report date not stated). The two views differ on scale, not direction.
UNCTAD (report date not stated) reports China–US trade down more than 20% since 2024, with East Asia expanding trade with both China and North America. The USAFacts effective rate for China was 22.8% in August 2026 against 30.6% in 2025.
7. What companies should do
Chapters 2–6 set out tariffs, the summit, agreements, remedies and trade data. This chapter turns them into action points and a dated watch-list. It uses only facts from earlier chapters and describes, rather than gives legal advice.
7.1 Action points by situation
| Situation | Action | Deadline | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid IEEPA duties | Check eligibility and file through CBP's CAPE; fix missing bank details, since $1.1B across 20,362 refunds was on hold on Oct 2 | CAPE Phase 3 open from Oct 6 | — |
| Imports from China covered by Section 301 exclusions | Plan for the 178 exclusion lines ending after Nov 9, 2026; no extension announced | Nov 9, 2026 (last covered day) | — |
| Metal-intensive goods from Canada or Mexico | Document U.S. content: 25% applies to non-U.S. content with a 15% floor under BIS's Oct 14 notice | In effect from Oct 14 | — |
| Patented pharmaceuticals | Check the 100% general, 15% (EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland) and 0% (UK) rates and any pricing-agreement route | Final phase from Sep 29 | — |
| US–China supply chains | Treat the $30B-each-way cuts as announced, not implemented; plan to the extended truce date | Jan 10, 2027 | — |
| Chinese amine compounds, solar, chassis | Watch the ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds, solar orders, and the chassis redetermination | Nov 13, 2026; about Nov 2; Jan 5, 2027 | — |
7.2 What changed, in rates
| Category | Measure | Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most goods | Section 301 forced-labor action | 10% or 12.5% tier | In effect since Jul 24 |
| Steel and aluminum | Section 232 | 50% (Annex I-A); 25% (Annex I-B) | In effect since Apr 6 |
| Patented pharmaceuticals | Section 232 | 100% general; 15%; UK 0% | In effect, final phase Sep 29 |
| China, goods on the cut lists | Summit recommendation | About $30B each way | Announced, not implemented |
| Whole economy | Effective rate (Penn Wharton) | 7.1% overall; China 24.3% | Reported, Aug 2026 |
The tariff wall is now product and country specific; use the refund, exclusion and content rules to manage cost, and treat summit cuts as pending until published.
7.3 Key dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect".
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | CAPE Phase 3 opens | In effect | StartBusinessByState |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Class certified in Freestyle World; WTO forecast published | In effect | Troutman Pepper Locke; WTO |
| Oct 14, 2026 | BIS "U.S. content" notice; ITC final affirmative on solar | In effect | Diaz Trade Law; USITC |
| About Nov 2, 2026 | Solar duty orders expected | Upcoming | Utility Dive |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Next BEA and Census trade release | Upcoming | BEA |
| Nov 9, 2026 | Section 301 exclusions' last covered day; ship-fee pause ends unless extended | Upcoming | Argents; DSCP |
| Nov 10, 2026 | Original truce expiry, extended to Jan 10, 2027 | Announced extension | MOFCOM via Global Times |
| Nov 13, 2026 | ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds (estimated) | Upcoming | Law-firm summary |
| Dec 4, 2026 | Polysilicon Section 232 measure | Scheduled | Airlift USA |
| Jan 5, 2027 | Chassis redetermination due | Upcoming | CIT |
| Jan 12, 2027 | USMCA review comments due | Upcoming | GHY |
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