1. Key takeaways from the month
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, carbon markets moved mostly on rules and supply, and prices stayed in familiar ranges. Five conclusions explain the month; each is supported in the chapter named in brackets, with status judged against Oct 24.
1. EU allowances held a mid-80s euro range while the policy news was about supply. EUA Dec-26 day-end quotes rose from EUR 84.42 on Oct 2 to EUR 86.94 on Oct 9 (+3.0%), and a dated data table shows a settlement of EUR 86.14 on Oct 22 with a 30-day range of EUR 83.55 to 88.01. On Oct 20 the Council and Parliament provisionally agreed to raise the Market Stability Reserve invalidation threshold from 400 million to 700 million allowances, pending formal adoption, and no price reaction appears in the material. [Chapter 2]
2. UK allowances, not EUAs, were the instrument that moved on headlines. UKA Dec-26 reached GBP 62.90 intraday on Oct 7, 4.0% above the prior settlement of GBP 60.46, after a POLITICO report that the UK and EU had agreed an ETS link. The report rests on four briefed people, and no text or date for linked trading is published. [Chapter 2][Chapter 4]
3. CBAM is live but cheap in 2026; the real change comes in 2027. The Commission set the Q3 2026 certificate price at EUR 82.32 per tonne CO2e on Oct 5, up 9.4% from EUR 75.28 in Q2. Only 2.5% of embedded cost is payable in 2026, certificates go on sale on Feb 1, 2027, and the UK CBAM starts on Jan 1, 2027. Scope is still open: the downstream extension is under negotiation, and the US trade office takes comments until Nov 9. [Chapter 3]
4. National markets were a story of linkage and rules, with few price moves inside the window. China's CEA closed at 97.56 yuan per tonne on Oct 16 after touching 99.80. Washington's rule amendments took effect on Oct 24, but California-Washington-Québec trading remains unpermitted, and the RGGI record of USD 37.65 per short ton dates from before the window. [Chapter 4]
5. Voluntary retirements fell at the two big registries but rose across the market, while quality and compliance demand set prices. Verra and Gold Standard retired 67.4M credits in H1 2026, down 9.3%, against a wider market record of 104 Mt. CCP-tagged avoidance credits are priced 50% above untagged ones, and the CORSIA Phase 1 assessment reached USD 13.15 against about 38M cleared units and base-case demand of 163M. [Chapter 5][Chapter 6]
1.1 Markets at a glance
The rows are different series and are not comparable with each other; each names its own benchmark, unit and date.
| Market | Benchmark | Level | Change | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU ETS | EUA Dec-26 futures, day-end, EUR per tonne CO2 | 86.94 | +3.0% (84.42 on Oct 2) | Oct 9, 2026 | Advantag |
| EU ETS | EUA settlement, EUR per tonne | 86.14 | 30-day range 83.55 to 88.01 | Oct 22, 2026 | Purely Energy |
| UK ETS | UKA Dec-26 futures, GBP per tonne | 64.09 | +5.1% (60.98 on Oct 2) | Oct 9, 2026 | Advantag |
| EU CBAM | Quarterly certificate price, Q3 2026, EUR per tonne CO2e | 82.32 | +9.4% vs Q2 (75.28) | Oct 5, 2026 | Greener Ahead |
| China ETS | CEA spot, yuan per tonne | 97.56 | +1.80% vs Oct 9 | Oct 16, 2026 | Sxcoal |
| RGGI | Auction 73 clearing price, USD per short ton | 37.65 | +7.6% vs June (35.00); before window | Sep 9, 2026 | General Index |
| Voluntary | Verra + Gold Standard retirements, H1 2026, credits | 67.4M | -9.3% year on year | Oct 14, 2026 | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| Voluntary | Sylvera Q3 2026 average, REDD+ vs biochar, USD per credit | 6-8 vs 155-179 | Not stated | Oct 21, 2026 | Sylvera |
| CORSIA | CP1 Dec-26 assessment, USD per tCO2e | 13.15 | Highest since April | Week of Sep 29, 2026 | Green Earth |
2. Carbon prices and trading
Chapter 1 sets out the month's conclusions; this chapter supplies the price and rule evidence behind them, starting with the EU and UK compliance benchmarks.
2.1 Snapshot: benchmarks, rules and status
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUA Dec-26 futures, day-end quote, EUR per tonne CO2 | 84.42 to 86.94 (+2.52, +3.0%) | Oct 2 to Oct 9, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| EUA settlement (contract not named), EUR per tonne | 86.14; 30-day low 83.55, high 88.01 | Settlement Oct 22, 2026 | Reported | Purely Energy |
| UKA Dec-26 futures, GBP per tonne | 60.98 to 64.09 (+3.11, +5.1%) | Oct 2 to Oct 9, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| Commission average allowance price, Apr-Sep 2026 | EUR 78.93 per allowance | Published Oct 2026 | Official figure (via ClimateTrade) | ClimateTrade |
| EEX auction volume, all five days | 11,867,500 EUAs | Week of Oct 12, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| MSR invalidation threshold | 400m to 700m allowances | Provisional deal Oct 20, 2026 | Provisional; formal adoption pending | Council; Commission |
| MSR withdrawal from auctions | 190.5m allowances over 12 months | From Sep 1, 2026 | In effect | GX (via general-index.com) |
| ETS2 start | 2028; further delay requested | Postponed Dec 2025; request Sep 30, 2026 | In force (2028); delay not adopted | ClimateTrade; Veyt |
2.2 Prices: EUAs in a range, UKAs on linkage news
Three "EUA prices" circulate and are not one series: futures settlements (Dec-26 is the most-watched benchmark), the Commission's April-September average of EUR 78.93 per allowance (an Article 29a price-spike indicator), and the CBAM certificate price, a quarterly average of auction clearing prices (see Chapter 3). We do not compare them.
EUA. Context before the window: GX put the September EUA average at EUR 85.14 per tonne (+4.31% month on month). Inside it, Advantag's Dec-26 day-end quotes were EUR 84.42 on Oct 2 and EUR 86.94 on Oct 9: +2.52, or 2.52 ÷ 84.42 = +3.0%. Purely Energy shows a settlement of EUR 86.14 on Oct 22, with a 30-day range of EUR 83.55 to 88.01; the date of the high is not stated. CemNet (undated) describes a month-long range of EUR 82-87 with Dec-26 at EUR 84.50. The ranges differ slightly; we follow Purely Energy for the high because it is a dated data table.
Drivers named by the sources: Advantag cites an improved German economic outlook and technical analysis; CemNet says Hormuz-linked gas prices moved the market and compliance buying kept it bid above EUR 80.
UKA. On Oct 7, UKA Dec-26 reached GBP 62.90 intraday, 4.0% above the Oct 6 settlement of GBP 60.46 (62.90 ÷ 60.46 = 1.040) and its highest level since late July, after a POLITICO report that the UK and EU had agreed an ETS link. The deal is reported, not confirmed in this material; see Chapter 4. ClearBlue computed the EUA-UKA spread at about EUR 10.6 (EUR 84.78 Oct 6 EUA settlement minus EUR 74.2 for the UKA high) versus EUR 13.5 at the previous close (analyst calculation). Advantag's UKA Dec-26 quotes were GBP 60.98 on Oct 2 and GBP 64.09 on Oct 9: 3.11 ÷ 60.98 = +5.1%. The sources give no UKA close for Oct 22-23.
EUAs held a mid-80s euro range all month while the policy news was about supply: the Oct 20 reserve deal raised the cushion without a visible price jump, and UKAs, not EUAs, were the instrument that moved on headlines.
2.3 Supply and policy: the MSR deal, the leaders' summit and the review
Auctions and the reserve. EEX holds EUA auctions almost every working day. In the week of Oct 12 it offered 11,867,500 EUAs over five days, an average of 11,867,500 ÷ 5 = 2,373,500 a day. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) has withheld allowances from auctions since Sep 1: GX counts 190.5m over twelve months, about 15.9m a month (190.5 ÷ 12).
Oct 20 provisional agreement (official). The Council and Parliament agreed to raise the threshold above which reserve allowances are invalidated from 400 million to 700 million (+300m, +75%), effective immediately after formal adoption. The Commission had proposed in April 2026 to halt invalidation indefinitely; the compromise keeps the mechanism, and a gradual threshold decrease will be handled in the wider ETS review. Status: provisional, pending endorsement and formal adoption by both institutions; the amendment enters into force on publication in the Official Journal. GX reports that the Council's Sep 23 position was to suspend invalidation until end-2030; we follow the Council's Oct 21 release for the outcome. Paper Advance notes it does not directly lower prices or change CBAM. The material shows no price reaction.
Leaders and ETS2 (reported). Italy and Czechia sent the Commission a paper on Sep 30. According to ANSA and Euronews (via ClimateTrade), it concedes that suspension lacks support and asks instead for a pause in free-allocation cuts for CBAM sectors, reduced MSR withdrawals and a postponement of ETS2. At the Oct 15-16 summit, Carbon Pulse reports, leaders called for faster MSR reform to curb volatility and stressed the ETS's "essential role"; the Council and Commission both cite the Oct 16 conclusions as the trigger for the Oct 20 deal. ETS2 remains due in 2028 after the December 2025 one-year postponement (in force). Veyt reports member states split, with calls for a further delay meeting resistance (Oct 16); Carbon Pulse says the Commission will update its ETS2 impact assessment, with no merger into the ETS1 review. No further delay had been adopted by Oct 24.
The review (proposed, under negotiation). The Commission's Jul 17, 2026 package proposes slower cap cuts after 2030, a free-allocation phase-out for CBAM sectors extended to 2038, EUR 6 billion of extra free allocation for 2026-2030 and an MSR reform. On Oct 19 the Parliament's environment committee voted 64 to 11 (2 abstentions) to use about 88m plus 11m withheld allowances, nearly 100 million (88 + 11 = 99), for fallback benchmarks in 2026-2030; the plenary vote was set for Oct 22 and its outcome is not stated.
Analysts disagree on the effect (estimates): some forecast allowances EUR 20 higher in 2027, others a modest cut against pre-reform outlooks. CemNet's author expects the revision not to be ready before spring 2027 and estimates a Dec-27 range of EUR 85-105, average EUR 95.
3. CBAM progress
Chapter 2 covered the EU allowance market; the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) turns that market's auction results into a cost on imports through its own price series, which is not an EUA price.
3.1 CBAM at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of 2026-10-24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitive period | Duties on 2026 imports | from 1 Jan 2026 | In effect | Slaughter and May |
| Q3 2026 certificate price | €82.32 per tonne CO2e | published 5 Oct 2026 | In effect (imports 1 Jul–30 Sep) | DG TAXUD via GMK Center |
| 2027 timeline | Q4 price 4 Jan; sales 1 Feb; first declaration 30 Sep 2027 | 2027 | Scheduled | SteelOrbis; Greener Ahead |
| Downstream extension | Commission proposal; Parliament position | 17 Dec 2025; 15 Sep 2026 | Under negotiation | OECD; HKTDC |
| UK CBAM | Five sectors | starts 1 Jan 2027 | Legislated, not yet in force | GOV.UK |
| US review | Comments due 9 Nov 2026 | notice 8 Oct 2026 | Open | Federal Register |
3.2 The Q3 price and the 2027 cash-flow shift
The Commission set the Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne CO2e on 5 Oct 2026. It prices 2026 imports, to be paid from February 2027, and from 2027 CBAM becomes an in-year cash-flow cost.
The figure comes from a DG TAXUD press release reported by GMK Center; Greener Ahead and SMM also date it 5 Oct, while SteelOrbis carries it a day later. We follow 5 Oct. All sources are secondary, because the Commission page is not in the material. In 2026 the price is the average auction closing price in the quarter of import (Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, per Greener Ahead), not the price on the purchase date.
| CBAM certificate price, EUR per tonne CO2e | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price (Greener Ahead) | 75.36 | 75.28 | 82.32 |
| Change vs previous quarter | n/a | −0.08 (−0.1%) | +7.04 (+9.4%) |
Source: Greener Ahead. Check: 82.32 − 75.28 = 7.04; 7.04 ÷ 75.28 ≈ 9.35%. On Greener Ahead's example, 100 tonnes left to cover cost 100 × 82.32 = €8,232 for Q3 imports against €7,528 for Q2.
Three rules shape what follows, per Greener Ahead:
- Threshold. Duties apply above 50 tonnes a year of cement, iron and steel, aluminium and fertiliser goods combined (in effect since 1 Jan 2026); electricity and hydrogen have none.
- 2027 mechanics. Prices turn weekly. Free allocation falls from 97.5% to 95% of benchmark, so the share left to pay doubles from 2.5% to 5%; it reaches zero in 2034 under current law (the 17 Jul 2026 proposal would stretch the phase-out to 2038, see Chapter 2). At each quarter-end declarants must hold certificates for at least 50% of embedded emissions imported so far that year.
- Default values. Where installation data is missing, Commission defaults carry a mark-up of 10% in 2026 and 20% in 2027 for most goods. The default-values act was adopted on 16 Dec 2025.
Q4 is priced on 4 Jan 2027, certificates go on sale on 1 Feb 2027, and the first declaration and surrender fall due by 30 Sep 2027. The OECD lists the delegated act on certificate sale and re-purchase as "in preparation". The Commission's 17 July 2026 proposal to slow the cut in free allocation for CBAM sectors belongs to Chapter 2.
3.3 Downstream extension and the UK CBAM
The Commission proposed extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium goods, with anti-circumvention rules, on 17 Dec 2025; the OECD records it as under negotiation. On 15 Sep 2026, before our window, Parliament adopted its position by 464 to 50 with 159 abstentions: wider scope, tighter anti-circumvention rules and a temporary decarbonisation fund for exporters. It rejected a clause letting goods leave CBAM during price shocks, proposing revenue redirection instead, and dropped the option to offset CBAM with Article 6 credits. According to Greener Ahead, its list is about 457 products from 2028, more than twice the Commission's. A Mayer Brown note of October 2026 is titled "the road to trilogue", but its body is missing and no Council position appears. This is a proposal, not law.
The UK mechanism is further along. The GOV.UK policy summary (updated 16 Oct 2026) says UK CBAM starts on 1 Jan 2027, covers aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen and iron and steel across the whole UK, and has primary legislation in the Finance Act 2026 and a £50,000 minimum registration threshold; it may change. HMRC published default emissions values on 16 Oct 2026, with a Treasury written statement on next steps (Carbon Herald). A Commonwealth Secretariat paper (undated) says liability is embodied emissions times the effective UK carbon price, less overseas carbon pricing paid. A POLITICO report of 7 Oct, relayed by illuminem and, on 8 Oct, by Export.org.uk, says a UK–EU ETS link is agreed and could bring mutual CBAM exemption; that is reported, not signed (see Chapter 4).
3.4 Third-country reactions
United States. The USTR notice, published in the Federal Register on 8 Oct 2026, asks how CBAM and its proposed expansion affect US producers, workers and exports. SteelOrbis adds that it asks whether CBAM is a trade barrier and what enforcement might follow. Comments close 9 Nov 2026, 16 days from this brief's date. Usthadian Academy says the US objects to default values and that an August EU–US joint statement committed the Commission to seek more flexibility for US businesses; the exact date is not stated.
India. The Economic Times (date not stated) cites NITI Aayog: the EU takes about 22% of India's steel and aluminium exports and 39.3% of its iron and steel exports. It also cites a June 2026 ICRIER paper projecting a 24% fall in steel exports to the EU (estimate). Usthadian cites a GTRI estimate of 20–35% of export value for selected goods and a forward most-favoured-nation clause in India's EU trade deal. SMM reports EU imports of Indian non-alloy HRC at 517,315 tonnes in Jan–Jul 2026 against 89,641 (+477.1%), but on a low base and quota-driven; buyers write carbon costs into contract clauses rather than quoted prices.
China. The material holds no Chinese government statement on CBAM in the window. The only link is a Parliament rapporteur's reference to "resource shuffling" from the Chinese mainland on 15 Sep.
Judgement. In 2026 the cost is small, since only 2.5% of embedded cost is payable; the action has moved to scope (downstream goods), 2027 cash flow, the US review and the UK link.
4. National carbon markets
Chapter 3 showed the EU's CBAM pricing carbon at the border; this chapter covers the national and regional markets that CBAM is pushing governments to link, reform or build, and what each did between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026 (status judged on Oct 24).
4.1 Snapshot: linkage dominated, prices mostly did not move
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK–EU ETS link | Talks concluded, per four briefed people; summit pencilled for Nov 20 | Oct 7 | Reported, unconfirmed | POLITICO |
| UKA Dec-26 on the report | GBP 62.90 intraday, +4.0% on GBP 60.46 | Oct 7 | Market data | ClearBlue |
| China CEA (spot) | Close 97.56 yuan/t; week range 95.20–99.80 | Oct 16 | Reported | Sxcoal |
| China CEA volume | 11.61 Mt; turnover 1.11 bn yuan | Oct 12–16 | Reported | Sxcoal |
| Japan GX-ETS | Mandatory phase | Since Apr 2026 | In effect | RIETI |
| Washington rule amendments | Take effect; linkage expected 2027 | Oct 24 | Adopted Sep 23 | Morgan Lewis |
| RGGI Auction 73 (before window) | $37.65/short ton, 28.5 m allowances | Sep 9 | Record, context | General Index |
| Korea KAU (before window) | Avg $22.27/t in September | Sep | Context | General Index |
The material has nothing on China's expansion to steel, cement and aluminium or absolute caps, nor on Brazil, Indonesia or Turkey, and no California or RGGI auction inside the window, so these are left out or marked as context.
4.2 UK–EU link: concluded on paper, not yet announced
On Oct 7, 2026, POLITICO reported that four people briefed on the talks said Britain and the EU had agreed to link their emissions trading systems, the first of three negotiating files to close. The unannounced summit is internally planned for Nov 20, and both the UK government and the Commission say they do not comment on ongoing negotiations. This is press reporting, not an official statement. Youth mobility and agri-food checks are still open, and the three files move as a package. Carbon Pulse's Oct 14 conference report is more cautious, with speakers calling a deal "increasingly likely" at the November summit. We follow POLITICO on what was reported and treat the link as unsigned.
No design text is published. ClearBlue describes the expected effect as UKAs and EUAs usable interchangeably for compliance, with reciprocal CBAM exemptions. The incentive is the UK's own CBAM from Jan 1, 2027, alongside the EU's definitive phase running since Jan 1, 2026 (see Chapter 3).
UKA Dec-26 rose from Tuesday's settlement of GBP 60.46 to GBP 62.90 on Oct 7, which is 62.90 ÷ 60.46 − 1 = +4.0%, the highest since late July. ClearBlue's spread compares an intraday UKA price with a prior-day EUA settlement: EUR 84.78 − EUR 74.2 ≈ EUR 10.6, down from EUR 13.5. It warns that a "sell the fact" reversal at the formal announcement cannot be ruled out (analyst opinion). UKA and EUA levels are covered in Chapter 2.
The UK–EU link was the month's biggest policy item, but it rests on press reports alone: no published text, no date for linked trading, and a package condition.
4.3 Asia: China trades, Japan and India are rule stories
China (national ETS). Sxcoal reports that CEA prices rose in the first full week after the National Day holiday, hitting 99.80 yuan/t but failing to hold 100 yuan. The Oct 12–16 range was 95.20–99.80 yuan/t, and the Oct 16 close of 97.56 yuan/t was up 1.80% on Oct 9. Sxcoal says compliance deadlines drew demand, but buying faded at higher levels. Volume was 11.61 Mt (5.44 Mt listed + 6.17 Mt bulk), up 76.92% per trading day, and turnover was 1.11 bn yuan ($165.16 m). Our check: 1.11 bn ÷ 11.61 Mt ≈ 95.6 yuan/t, inside the weekly range. General Index put the September month-end CEA at $14.09/t, down 2.59% month on month, or 14.6% of the EUA Dec-26 price ($14.09 ÷ $96.62). That is a different source and date, so not one series.
South Korea (K-ETS). Before the window, General Index reported Korean allowances above KRW 30,000 on tighter Phase 4 supply, averaging $22.27/t in September (+12.75% month on month). The first KAU26 auction on Sep 9 cleared 5.73% above August but did not sell out its 2.83 m allowances.
Japan (GX-ETS). RIETI's October 2026 paper says participation became mandatory in April 2026 after a voluntary phase from fiscal 2023. It regulates at company level, not facility level. Sector benchmarks cover about 90% of regulated emissions and tighten from the top 50% of firms to the top 32.5% by fiscal 2030. The scheme has a price corridor, limited use of credits, and power-sector auctioning from 2033. The author judges the initial corridor unlikely to support large-scale hydrogen or CCS. No GX-ETS price is given.
India (CCTS). Carbon Credits (secondary) lists India with Japan and Vietnam as national ETSs launched in 2026, citing ICAP. Argus P&A (Sep 28) says India's framework is anchored by the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, within a pledge to cut GDP emissions intensity 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. According to The Economic Times, Britain has agreed to recognise the CCTS under the UK CBAM; the date is not stated. No CCTS price, volume or trading start is given.
4.4 North America: Washington–California–Québec linkage and RGGI
The June 2026 framework among the three jurisdictions gives companies no enforceable rights and does not itself permit cross-market compliance. Status:
- California's governor made the required findings on Sep 21 (context). Washington's Ecology department adopted rule amendments on Sep 23, scheduled to take effect on Oct 24, 2026; linkage-conditioned provisions wait for the linkage date.
- Pending: California Air Resources Board rulemaking, Québec National Assembly approval and an Order in Council, then written agreement on an effective date. Washington expects the shared market in 2027 with at least 90 days' notice. No cross-jurisdiction trading is permitted today.
Washington's Auction #15 on Sep 2 sold all 6.28 m allowances at $39.50/t, $25.06 below June's $64.56 (−38.8%). In September WCA closed at $38.75 and CCA at $32.25, narrowing the spread from $21.53 to $6.50. These are before-window figures.
RGGI Auction 73 on Sep 9 sold 28.5 m allowances at a record $37.65 per short ton, up $2.65 (+7.6%) on June's $35.00, in Virginia's first auction since rejoining. All 1,148,000 reserve allowances were sold, so no extra supply remains for the December auction. RGGI is quoted per short ton, so it is not directly comparable with per-tonne WCA and CCA prices. For California, OPIS forecasts V26 Dec 2026 CCAs at $35–40/mt by end-2026 (estimate), while most IETA survey respondents expected $30–35. The $32.25 September level sits inside the survey band and below OPIS's.
5. Voluntary carbon market
Chapter 4 covered national and regional compliance schemes; the voluntary market sets prices through volumes, labels and buyers' quality tests, apart from CORSIA, where a legal deadline applies.
5.1 Voluntary market at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verra + Gold Standard retirements, H1 2026 | 67.4M credits, −9.3% YoY | Oct 14, 2026 | Reported | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| Wider VCM retirements, H1 2026 | 104 MtCO2 vs 99.8 | Oct 14, 2026 | Reported; tracker not named | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| CCP-tagged avoidance credits | +50% vs untagged | Oct 15, 2026 | Reported (analysts) | Carbon Pulse |
| Q3 2026 average prices | REDD+ $6–8; biochar $155–179 | Oct 21, 2026 | Reported | Sylvera |
| CORSIA CP1 Dec-26 assessment | $13.15/tCO2e | Week of Sep 29 | Reported; assessor not named | Green Earth |
| CORSIA Phase 1 eligible units | 36.6–41M vs 100–250M demand | Oct 9, 2026 | Estimate | Green Fuel Journal |
5.2 Retirements fell at the big registries but rose across the market
The tracker is Removall Carbon's State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report (H1 2026), reported by Carbon Pulse on Oct 14, 2026. It counts credits retired at Verra (>49M) and Gold Standard (17M), about 67.4M in total, down 9.3% from H1 2025. Check: (67.4 − 74.3) ÷ 74.3 = −9.3%.
| Year | Verra + Gold Standard H1 (M credits) | Full year (M credits) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 41 | 83.8 |
| 2021 | 66.6 | 154.1 |
| 2025 | 74.3 | 127.8 |
| 2026 | 67.4 | not yet |
Source: Removall via Carbon Pulse.
The wider market, measured in tonnes of CO2 by a tracker the extract does not name, hit a first-half record of 104 Mt, against 99.8 Mt a year earlier (+4.2%). If one credit is one tonne, retirements outside the two registries rose from about 25.5M (99.8 − 74.3) to about 36.6M (104 − 67.4), roughly +43%. That is our arithmetic, with the unit caveat. Another vendor cites 95M credits for H1 2025 without naming its tracker; we follow Removall, which states its definition.
Retirement volume is not falling; it is moving away from the two biggest registries, while price moves toward labelled and rated supply.
Prices. Sylvera's Q3 2026 averages (company ratings data, Oct 21, 2026) run from $6–8 for REDD+ and cookstoves to $155–179 for biochar, so biochar costs about 19× (155 ÷ 8) to 30× (179 ÷ 6) a REDD+ credit. Within ARR, Europe averaged $30.35 and Asia $9.88. Credits rated BBB or higher were 43% of issuance in Q1–Q3 2026, against 28% a year earlier. Regreener's October euro ranges (e.g. direct air capture €435–1,000) are a different series, so we do not mix them.
The CCP premium needs care. Carbon Pulse's 50% is a relative gap for avoidance credits, with no volumes and no proof that the tag alone causes it. Other premiums answer different questions: 19% for the MSCI Global CCP index over the all-market index since mid-2024, and up to 87% per rating notch for ARR in 2025 (BeZero, via ICVCM). In 2026, 76% of CCP projects were rated BBB or above against 13% of non-CCP projects, so label and rating overlap.
5.3 CORSIA Phase 1: the price is low, the shortage is about paperwork
Phase 1 (2024–2026) units must come from one of ten ICAO-approved programmes and carry host-country authorisation; operators must cancel them by 31 January 2028 (ICAO, via ClimateTrade). Per Sylvera, about 300M credits could qualify but only 38M had cleared every gate (mid-2026), against base-case demand of 163M units. Check: 163 − 38 ≈ 125M, Sylvera's stated gap. IATA puts demand at 200–250M units and the gap near 150M (Sep 18, 2026); definitions differ, so the gaps do not reconcile. In Southeast Asia, 2.6M credits are authorised and 18.2M lack a Letter of Authorisation; together (20.8M) they would cover the 17–18M ASEAN airlines need (Boeing, GenZero, Abatable, July 2026).
Prices have not followed the shortage. Reported points: $9.30 in late June or early July (Argus low; sources differ on the date), $15.75 on Jul 1 (OPIS), just above $12 in mid-September (Tasman). The CP1 Dec-26 assessment reached $13.15 in the week of Sep 29, the highest since April, with open interest at a record 2.5M units. Assessors differ, so we compute no change across them. IATA estimates Phase 1 could need over 200M units costing $4–5 billion, an implied $20–25 per unit (4,000 ÷ 200 to 5,000 ÷ 200). Demand is starting: 502,000 CORSIA credits were retired in H1 2026 against 14,000 in all of 2025. The Commission now expects its Implementing Act on credits for EU airlines in Q1 2027, moved from Q4 2026 (reported). Phase 2 starts Jan 1, 2027. Next dates: the 2025 sector growth factor, due by Oct 31, and ICAO Council's 239th session in October–November.
5.4 Integrity labels and removals
On Sep 28, 2026, ICVCM approved Verra's VM0049 Carbon Capture and Storage v1.0 under the Core Carbon Principles, including direct air capture (VMD0056) and BECCS (VMD0059) modules (Verra release). The label covers the methodology, not each project. On Sep 22, Japan Airlines and Climeworks Solutions announced what they call the first CORSIA-compliant removal purchase; volume undisclosed.
Removal deals are small but financing is getting more structured:
- Frontier–44.01 (Oct 15): $11.7M for 20,932 t, delivery 2028–2031, an implied $559/t (11.7M ÷ 20,932).
- Citi (Oct 20): a $72M, 3.5-year principal-protected note paid from verified biochar credits of Applied Carbon (Texas); Microsoft's 2022 offtake is existing, and terms are undisclosed.
- Terraton (Oct 20): first Isometric-issued credits from EcoFix Kenya, with agreements for up to 97,240 t, including Climeworks Solutions (2,000 t committed, 14,000 t reserved).
Against that, an unnamed analytics firm says permanent-removal supply fell over 75% in 2026 and removal retirements over 50% after 2025's record; only a summary is available. SBTi's Net-Zero Standard V2 (published Jun 11, 2026) makes removal support voluntary until 2035, then at least 1% of ongoing emissions.
6. Corporate responses
Chapters 2-5 covered prices, CBAM, national markets and voluntary credits; this chapter turns them into what each type of company has to do. It uses only facts from those chapters, and the material records rules, prices and a few deals rather than company disclosures, so the "responses" below are what the evidence shows, not surveys.
6.1 Compliance cost and reporting
Emitters in the EU. The compliance benchmark sat near EUR 86 per tonne (EUR 86.14 on Oct 22). The Oct 20 provisional deal raises the reserve invalidation threshold from 400 million to 700 million allowances (+75%), and the Commission's July review package, still under negotiation, proposes a free-allocation phase-out for CBAM sectors to 2038. For a company, the planning input is that supply rules are still moving, while the ETS2 start stays at 2028 with a further delay requested but not adopted.
Importers into the EU. In 2026 CBAM costs little: 2.5% of embedded cost is payable, so 100 tonnes left to cover cost 100 x EUR 82.32 = EUR 8,232 for Q3 imports. From 2027 prices turn weekly, the payable share doubles to 5%, and declarants must hold certificates for at least 50% of embedded emissions at each quarter-end. In the one commercial signal in the material, buyers of Indian hot-rolled coil write carbon costs into contract clauses rather than quoted prices.
Exporters to the UK, and US producers. UK CBAM starts on Jan 1, 2027 for five sectors with a GBP 50,000 registration threshold, and HMRC published default emissions values on Oct 16. The US trade office is taking comments on how CBAM affects US producers until Nov 9. A UK-EU ETS link could bring mutual CBAM exemption, but it is a press report only.
Credit buyers. Buying is shifting to labelled and rated supply: CCP-tagged avoidance credits are priced 50% above untagged ones, and credits rated BBB or higher were 43% of issuance in Q1-Q3 2026 against 28% a year earlier. Airlines face a legal deadline: 502,000 CORSIA credits were retired in H1 2026 against 14,000 in all of 2025, and Japan Airlines announced a removal purchase from Climeworks Solutions. Removal finance is getting structured, such as Frontier's USD 11.7M for 20,932 t (about USD 559 per tonne) and Citi's USD 72M note. SBTi's Net-Zero Standard V2 makes removal support voluntary until 2035.
6.2 What changed and what it means by reader
Three points run through the table. First, the three prices companies face are different series: the EUA is a market price, the CBAM certificate price is a quarterly average of auction closing prices, and CORSIA units are assessed by separate providers, so none should be netted against another. Second, most of the dated obligations fall in 2027, which leaves the rest of 2026 for data, registration and contracts. Third, several of the month’s headline items are not yet binding: the UK-EU link is a press report, the MSR deal needs formal adoption, and the downstream CBAM extension is a proposal.
| Reader | What changed | Implication | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU importers (cement, steel, aluminium, fertiliser) | Q3 price EUR 82.32, +9.4% on Q2; sales start Feb 1, 2027; downstream extension under negotiation | Model 2026 exposure at 2.5% of embedded cost and budget for weekly prices and a 5% payable share from 2027 | — |
| EU ETS emitters | Provisional MSR deal; EUA near EUR 86; ETS2 delay not adopted | Treat supply rules as unsettled until formal adoption; keep ETS2 at 2028 | — |
| Exporters to the UK; US producers | UK CBAM defaults published; USTR review open | Prepare UK registration data before Jan 1, 2027; US producers can comment by Nov 9 | — |
| Compliance buyers in North America and Asia | Washington amendments in effect Oct 24; China CEA near 97.56 yuan; Japan mandatory since April | Cross-market trading is not yet permitted; check each scheme's own rules | — |
| Voluntary credit buyers | Registry retirements down 9.3% but market record; labelled credits at a premium | Buy against a stated definition and rating, not headline volume | — |
| Airlines under CORSIA | CP1 at USD 13.15; 38M units cleared against 163M base-case demand | Check unit eligibility and host-country authorisation against the Jan 31, 2028 cancellation deadline | — |
The cost of carbon fell on companies unevenly this month: low and capped in 2026 for CBAM importers, rule-dependent for EU emitters, and shortage-driven for airlines, so the action for most readers is data and contracts, not price hedging.
6.3 Key dates
Dates before Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect"; later ones are "Upcoming".
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | CBAM definitive period starts | In effect | Slaughter and May |
| Apr 2026 | Japan GX-ETS becomes mandatory | In effect | RIETI |
| Sep 1, 2026 | MSR withdrawal from auctions (190.5m allowances over 12 months) begins | In effect | GX via general-index.com |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Commission publishes Q3 CBAM price, EUR 82.32 | In effect | GMK Center |
| Oct 8, 2026 | USTR notice on CBAM in the Federal Register | In effect | Federal Register |
| Oct 16, 2026 | HMRC publishes UK CBAM default emissions values | In effect | Carbon Herald |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Provisional agreement on MSR threshold 400m to 700m (formal adoption pending) | In effect (provisional) | Council |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Washington cap-and-invest amendments take effect | In effect | Morgan Lewis |
| Oct 31, 2026 | CORSIA 2025 sector growth factor due | Upcoming | Green Fuel Journal |
| Nov 9, 2026 | USTR comments on CBAM close | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Nov 20, 2026 | UK-EU summit planned internally, date not announced | Upcoming | POLITICO |
| Jan 1, 2027 | UK CBAM starts | Upcoming | GOV.UK |
| Jan 4, 2027 | Commission publishes Q4 CBAM price | Upcoming | SteelOrbis |
| Feb 1, 2027 | CBAM certificate sales start | Upcoming | SteelOrbis |
| Q1 2027 | EU Implementing Act on CORSIA credits for EU airlines expected | Upcoming | Green Earth |
| 2027 | Washington-California-Québec linkage expected, with at least 90 days' notice | Upcoming | Morgan Lewis |
| Sep 30, 2027 | First CBAM declaration and surrender due | Upcoming | Greener Ahead |
| Jan 31, 2028 | CORSIA Phase 1 unit cancellation deadline | Upcoming | ClimateTrade |
| 2028 | ETS2 start | Upcoming | ClimateTrade |
7. References
This document draws on the following 56 sources, listed in the order they are first cited.
- Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (12/10/2026) — advantag.de
- EU ETS Carbon Price Today | Carbon Markets — purelyenergy.co.uk
- ETS market stability reserve: Council and Parliament reach provisional agreement on targeted amendment - Consilium — consilium.europa.eu
- Political agreement on rules enhancing stability and long-term resilience of EU carbon market — ec.europa.eu
- UKAs Rally 4% on Reports of a UK–EU ETS Linkage Deal — clearbluemarkets.com
- UK and EU reach Brexit agreement to link carbon emissions trading systems – POLITICO — politico.eu
- The European Commission has announced the price of CBAM certificates for Q3 2026 — gmk.center
- CBAM certificate price Q3 2026: €82.32 per tonne of CO₂e — greenerahead.com
- EU CBAM certificate price rises to €82.32 for Q3 2026 — steelorbis.com
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Policy summary - GOV.UK — gov.uk
- Ongoing and future CBAM policy developments: Advancing the Implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism | OECD — oecd.org
- Federal Register :: Request for Comments on the Effect of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Proposals To Expand Coverage on U.S. Trade — federalregister.gov
- Weekly: China national CEA market trades review (Oct 16, 2026) - Sxcoal — en.sxcoal.com
- Linking Carbon Markets: California, Washington, and Québec Pursue a Larger Trading Pool | Morgan Lewis - Power & Pipes - JDSupra — jdsupra.com
- September Pricing Analysis - Global Compliance Carbon — general-index.com
- Combined Verra, Gold Standard carbon credit retirements down 9% YoY in H1 2026 -report « Carbon Pulse — carbon-pulse.com
- CP Daily Newsletter: Sunday October 18, 2026 « Carbon Pulse — carbon-pulse.com
- CORSIA activity builds across prices, airlines and supply — green.earth
- CORSIA Credit Supply Gap 2026–2028: Price and Procurement — greenfueljournal.com
- CORSIA Phase 1 and Carbon Removals: What Buyers Need to Know — climatetrade.com
- How to plan, buy, and report on high-quality carbon credits: a buyer's guide — sylvera.com
- EU Council October 2026: what’s at stake for the EU ETS — climatetrade.com
- ETS2 delay: EU leaders split over 2028 start — veyt.com
- EU ETS carbon price: EUA references and how to buy | ClimateTrade — climatetrade.com
- EUA trading in very narrow range – awaiting news from ETS revision, moves driven by gas price — cemnet.com
- The 2026 MSR reform proposals — fsr.eui.eu
- EU Reaches Deal on Carbon Market Stability Reserve — paperadvance.com
- Push to delay ETS2 overshadows EU summit as ETS1 reform stalls — qcintel.com
- EU Council and Parliament advance ETS reforms to protect industrial competitiveness – INSIGHT EU MONITORING — ieu-monitoring.com
- Timeline of key ESG Developments in 2026 — slaughterandmay.com
- European Parliament Backs Tougher, Wider-Reaching Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — research.hktdc.com
- SMM Analysis CBAM Costs and Emissions Data Reshape European Procurement of Indian Steel - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) — news.metal.com
- CBAM Certificates 2027: Threshold, Price and Deadlines — letmeship.com
- CBAM and EU Carbon Compliance Advisory — fgcapitaladvisors.com
- EU’s CBAM Downstream Extension and Anti-Circumvention Amendments: the Road to Trilogue | Insights | Mayer Brown — mayerbrown.com
- UK Sets Default Emissions Values Ahead Of 2027 Carbon Border Tax — carbonherald.com
- The UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism | Commonwealth — thecommonwealth.org
- UK and EU reach Brexit agreement to link carbon emissions trading systems | illuminem — illuminem.com
- The Day in Trade: Emissions trading scheme linkage agreed, Burnham in Berlin and French minister says UK can ‘come back, anytime’ to EU — export.org.uk
- USTR launches review of EU CBAM's impact on US producers and exporters — steelorbis.com
- US Probe into EU Carbon Border Tax Could Benefit India - Current Affairs Usthadian Academy — usthadian.com
- India Carbon Pricing: India’s bid to keep carbon cash home as Europe adds a new trade cost - The Economic Times — m.economictimes.com
- Overview of the Japanese GX-ETS and Prospects for Phase II — rieti.go.jp
- CP Daily Newsletter: Wednesday October 14, 2026 « Carbon Pulse — carbon-pulse.com
- A Guide to Compliance Carbon Credit Markets • Carbon Credits — carboncredits.com
- Emissions Trading and Carbon Credits in India: A Legal Perspective — argus-p.com
- Navigating 2026 U.S. Subnational Carbon Markets During a Period of Regulatory Transition - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company — opis.com
- Carbon Credit Prices 2026: Current Prices by Project Type — regreener.earth
- CCP Carbon Credits: A 50% Avoidance Premium Emerges · CarbonMeld — carbonmeld.com
- CORSIA's missing credits: 18 million Southeast Asian credits are waiting for one signature - AQUILA.is — aquila.is
- Mandatory CORSIA in 2027: Aviation Faces Growing Carbon Credit Demand as SAF Supply Lags - The Sustainable TImes — thesustainabletimes.com
- Verra Secures ICVCM Approval for Carbon Capture and Storage Methodology - Verra — verra.org
- Verra CCS Methodology Gets ICVCM Approval as Carbon Removal Market Grows • Carbon Credits — carboncredits.com
- Frontier Strikes $12 Million Deal With 44.01 To Turn CO2 Into Rock In UAE — carbonherald.com
- Citi Closes $72 Million Carbon Removal-Linked Note for Applied Carbon Biochar Project | OneStop ESG — onestopesg.com
- Terraton Issues First Carbon Removal Credits from Agricultural Waste, Signs Agreements with Climeworks Solutions, Climate Impact Partners, Carbonfuture, CUR8, and Terraset — finance.yahoo.com