Five conclusions explain the month: supply and rules moved more than prices
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, carbon markets moved mostly on rules and supply, and prices stayed in familiar ranges. Each conclusion links to the module that supports it; every status is judged against Oct 24, 2026, and items dated before Sep 24 are context.
Five conclusions
EU allowances held a mid-80s euro range while the policy news was about supply
EUA Dec-26 day-end quotes rose from EUR 84.42 on Oct 2 to EUR 86.94 on Oct 9 (+3.0%; Advantag, reported). A dated data table shows a settlement of EUR 86.14 on Oct 22 with a 30-day range of EUR 83.55 to EUR 88.01 (Purely Energy, reported). On Oct 20 the Council and Parliament provisionally agreed to raise the Market Stability Reserve invalidation threshold from 400 million to 700 million allowances, pending formal adoption; the material shows no price reaction.
UK allowances, not EUAs, were the instrument that moved on headlines
UKA Dec-26 reached GBP 62.90 intraday on Oct 7, 4.0% above the prior settlement of GBP 60.46, after a POLITICO report that the UK and EU had agreed an ETS link (ClearBlue). The report rests on four briefed people, and no text or date for linked trading is published, so the link is reported and unconfirmed.
CBAM is live but cheap in 2026; the real change comes in 2027
The Commission set the Q3 2026 certificate price at EUR 82.32 per tonne CO2e on Oct 5, up 9.4% from EUR 75.28 in Q2 (secondary sources; DG TAXUD release as reported by GMK Center). Only 2.5% of embedded cost is payable in 2026, certificates go on sale on Feb 1, 2027, and the UK CBAM starts on Jan 1, 2027. Scope is still open: the downstream extension is under negotiation, and the US trade office takes comments until Nov 9.
National markets were a story of linkage and rules, with few price moves inside the window
China's CEA closed at 97.56 yuan per tonne on Oct 16 after touching 99.80 (Sxcoal, reported). Washington's rule amendments took effect on Oct 24, but California-Washington-Québec trading remains unpermitted, and the RGGI record of USD 37.65 per short ton dates from before the window (Sep 9, context).
Voluntary retirements fell at the two big registries but rose across the market, while quality and compliance demand set prices
Verra and Gold Standard retired 67.4M credits in H1 2026, down 9.3%, against a wider market record of 104 Mt (Removall via Carbon Pulse, Oct 14, reported). CCP-tagged avoidance credits are priced 50% above untagged ones (Carbon Pulse, Oct 15, reported by analysts). The CORSIA Phase 1 assessment reached USD 13.15 against about 38M cleared units and base-case demand of 163M (reported).
Markets at a glance
The rows are different series and are not comparable with each other; each names its own benchmark, unit and date.
| Market | Benchmark and unit | Level and status | Change | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU ETS | EUA Dec-26 futures, day-end, EUR per tonne CO2 | 86.94Reported | +3.0% (84.42 on Oct 2) | Oct 9, 2026 | Advantag |
| EU ETS | EUA settlement, EUR per tonne | 86.14Reported | 30-day range 83.55 to 88.01 | Oct 22, 2026 | Purely Energy |
| UK ETS | UKA Dec-26 futures, GBP per tonne | 64.09Reported | +5.1% (60.98 on Oct 2) | Oct 9, 2026 | Advantag |
| EU CBAM | Quarterly certificate price, Q3 2026, EUR per tonne CO2e | 82.32In effect | +9.4% vs Q2 (75.28) | Oct 5, 2026 | Greener Ahead |
| China ETS | CEA spot, yuan per tonne | 97.56Reported | +1.80% vs Oct 9 | Oct 16, 2026 | Sxcoal |
| RGGI | Auction 73 clearing price, USD per short ton | 37.65Context | +7.6% vs June (35.00); before the window | Sep 9, 2026 | General Index |
| Voluntary | Verra + Gold Standard retirements, H1 2026, credits | 67.4MReported | -9.3% year on year | Oct 14, 2026 | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| Voluntary | Sylvera Q3 2026 average, REDD+ vs biochar, USD per credit | 6 to 8 vs 155 to 179Reported | Not stated | Oct 21, 2026 | Sylvera |
| CORSIA | CP1 Dec-26 assessment, USD per tCO2e | 13.15Reported | Highest since April | Week of Sep 29, 2026 | Green Earth |
How to read the status labels
EUAs held a mid-80s euro range while the news was about supply, and UKAs moved on headlines
Prices, auctions and the reserve deal, with each price tied to its own benchmark. Three "EUA prices" circulate and they are not one series, so the page does not compare them.
Three prices, not one series
EUA Dec-26 is the most-watched benchmark: EUR 86.94 on Oct 9 (Advantag) and a settlement of EUR 86.14 on Oct 22 (Purely Energy).
EUR 78.93 per allowance for April to September 2026, an Article 29a price-spike indicator (published Oct 2026, via ClimateTrade).
A quarterly average of auction clearing prices: EUR 82.32 for Q3 2026 (module 3). It is not an EUA price.
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUA Dec-26 futures, day-end quote, EUR per tonne CO2 | 84.42 to 86.94 (+2.52, +3.0%) | Oct 2 to Oct 9, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| EUA settlement (contract not named), EUR per tonne | 86.14; 30-day low 83.55, high 88.01 | Settlement Oct 22, 2026 | Reported | Purely Energy |
| UKA Dec-26 futures, GBP per tonne | 60.98 to 64.09 (+3.11, +5.1%) | Oct 2 to Oct 9, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| Commission average allowance price, Apr-Sep 2026 | EUR 78.93 per allowance | Published Oct 2026 | Official figurevia ClimateTrade | ClimateTrade |
| EEX auction volume, all five days | 11,867,500 EUAs | Week of Oct 12, 2026 | Reported | Advantag |
| MSR invalidation threshold | 400m to 700m allowances | Provisional deal Oct 20, 2026 | ProvisionalFormal adoption pending | Council; Commission |
| MSR withdrawal from auctions | 190.5m allowances over 12 months | From Sep 1, 2026 | In effect | GX via General Index |
| ETS2 start | 2028; further delay requested | Postponed Dec 2025; request Sep 30, 2026 | In force (2028)Delay not adopted | ClimateTrade; Veyt |
Context before the window: GX put the September EUA average at EUR 85.14 per tonne (+4.31% month on month). Inside it, Advantag's Dec-26 day-end quotes were EUR 84.42 on Oct 2 and EUR 86.94 on Oct 9: +2.52, or +3.0%.
Purely Energy shows a settlement of EUR 86.14 on Oct 22, with a 30-day range of EUR 83.55 to 88.01; the date of the high is not stated. CemNet (undated) describes a month-long range of EUR 82 to 87 with Dec-26 at EUR 84.50. The page follows Purely Energy for the high because it is a dated data table.
Advantag cites an improved German economic outlook and technical analysis. CemNet says Hormuz-linked gas prices moved the market and compliance buying kept it bid above EUR 80.
On Oct 7, UKA Dec-26 reached GBP 62.90 intraday, 4.0% above the Oct 6 settlement of GBP 60.46 and its highest level since late July, after a POLITICO report that the UK and EU had agreed an ETS link (ClearBlue). The deal is reported, not confirmed in this material.
Advantag's UKA Dec-26 quotes were GBP 60.98 on Oct 2 and GBP 64.09 on Oct 9: +3.11, or +5.1%. The sources give no UKA close for Oct 22 to 23.
ClearBlue compares an intraday UKA price with the prior-day EUA settlement (EUR 84.78 on Oct 6 minus EUR 74.2 for the UKA high).
EEX holds EUA auctions almost every working day. In the week of Oct 12 it offered 11,867,500 EUAs over five days, an average of 2,373,500 a day (Advantag, reported). The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) has withheld allowances from auctions since Sep 1: GX counts 190.5m over twelve months, about 15.9m a month (in effect).
Italy and Czechia sent the Commission a paper on Sep 30. According to ANSA and Euronews (via ClimateTrade), it concedes that suspension lacks support and asks instead for a pause in free-allocation cuts for CBAM sectors, reduced MSR withdrawals and a postponement of ETS2.
At the Oct 15 to 16 summit, Carbon Pulse reports, leaders called for faster MSR reform to curb volatility and stressed the ETS's "essential role"; the Council and Commission both cite the Oct 16 conclusions as the trigger for the Oct 20 deal.
The Council and Parliament agreed to raise the threshold above which reserve allowances are invalidated. Formal adoption by both institutions is pending; the amendment enters into force on publication in the Official Journal.
The Commission had proposed in April 2026 to halt invalidation indefinitely; the compromise keeps the mechanism, and a gradual threshold decrease will be handled in the wider ETS review. GX reports the Council's Sep 23 position was to suspend invalidation until end-2030; the page follows the Council's Oct 21 release for the outcome. Paper Advance notes the deal does not directly lower prices or change CBAM. The material shows no price reaction.
The Jul 17, 2026 package proposes slower cap cuts after 2030, a free-allocation phase-out for CBAM sectors extended to 2038, EUR 6 billion of extra free allocation for 2026 to 2030 and an MSR reform (ClimateTrade).
The environment committee voted 64 to 11 (2 abstentions) to use about 88m plus 11m withheld allowances, nearly 100 million, for fallback benchmarks in 2026 to 2030. The plenary vote was set for Oct 22 and its outcome is not stated.
ETS2 remains due in 2028 after the December 2025 one-year postponement. Veyt reports member states split, with calls for a further delay meeting resistance (Oct 16); Carbon Pulse says the Commission will update its ETS2 impact assessment, with no merger into the ETS1 review. No further delay had been adopted by Oct 24.
Some forecast allowances EUR 20 higher in 2027, others a modest cut against pre-reform outlooks (Carbon Pulse). CemNet's author expects the revision not to be ready before spring 2027 and estimates a Dec-27 range of EUR 85 to 105, average EUR 95.
CBAM is live but cheap in 2026, and the real change comes in 2027
The Commission's quarterly certificate price is its own series, a quarterly average of auction clearing prices, and not an EUA price. Every source for the Q3 figure is secondary, because the Commission page is not in the material.
CBAM certificate price by quarter, EUR per tonne CO2e
It prices 2026 imports, to be paid from February 2027; from 2027 CBAM becomes an in-year cash-flow cost. In 2026 the price is the average auction closing price in the quarter of import (Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, per Greener Ahead), not the price on the purchase date.
Status is judged against Oct 24, 2026.
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitive period | Duties on 2026 imports | From Jan 1, 2026 | In effect | Slaughter and May |
| Q3 2026 certificate price | EUR 82.32 per tonne CO2e | Published Oct 5, 2026 | In effectImports Jul 1 to Sep 30 | DG TAXUD via GMK Center |
| 2027 timeline | Q4 price Jan 4; sales Feb 1; first declaration Sep 30, 2027 | 2027 | Scheduled | SteelOrbis; Greener Ahead |
| Downstream extension | Commission proposal; Parliament position | Dec 17, 2025; Sep 15, 2026 | ProposedUnder negotiation | OECD; HKTDC |
| UK CBAM | Five sectors | Starts Jan 1, 2027 | LegislatedNot yet in force | GOV.UK |
| US review | Comments due Nov 9, 2026 | Notice Oct 8, 2026 | Open | Federal Register |
Duties apply above 50 tonnes a year of cement, iron and steel, aluminium and fertiliser goods combined (in effect since Jan 1, 2026); electricity and hydrogen have none (Greener Ahead).
Prices turn weekly. Free allocation falls from 97.5% to 95% of benchmark, so the share left to pay doubles from 2.5% to 5%; it reaches zero in 2034 under current law (the Jul 17, 2026 proposal would stretch the phase-out to 2038, see module 2). At each quarter-end declarants must hold certificates for at least 50% of embedded emissions imported so far that year.
Where installation data is missing, Commission defaults carry a mark-up of 10% in 2026 and 20% in 2027 for most goods. The default-values act was adopted on Dec 16, 2025 (OECD).
Q4 is priced on Jan 4, 2027, certificates go on sale on Feb 1, 2027, and the first declaration and surrender fall due by Sep 30, 2027. The OECD lists the delegated act on certificate sale and re-purchase as "in preparation".
The Commission proposed extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium goods, with anti-circumvention rules, on Dec 17, 2025; the OECD records it as under negotiation.
On Sep 15, 2026, before the window, Parliament adopted its position by 464 to 50 with 159 abstentions: wider scope, tighter anti-circumvention rules and a temporary decarbonisation fund for exporters. It rejected a clause letting goods leave CBAM during price shocks and dropped the option to offset CBAM with Article 6 credits (HKTDC). Its list is about 457 products from 2028, more than twice the Commission's (Greener Ahead). No Council position appears. This is a proposal, not law.
The GOV.UK policy summary (updated Oct 16, 2026) says UK CBAM covers aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen and iron and steel across the whole UK, with primary legislation in the Finance Act 2026 and a GBP 50,000 minimum registration threshold; it may change.
HMRC published default emissions values on Oct 16, 2026, with a Treasury written statement on next steps (Carbon Herald). A Commonwealth Secretariat paper (undated) says liability is embodied emissions times the effective UK carbon price, less overseas carbon pricing paid. A POLITICO report of Oct 7 says a UK-EU ETS link is agreed and could bring mutual CBAM exemption; that is Reported, not signed (module 4).
The USTR notice, published in the Federal Register on Oct 8, 2026, asks how CBAM and its proposed expansion affect US producers, workers and exports. SteelOrbis adds that it asks whether CBAM is a trade barrier and what enforcement might follow. Comments close Nov 9, 2026, 16 days from this brief's date.
Usthadian Academy says the US objects to default values and that an August EU-US joint statement committed the Commission to seek more flexibility for US businesses; the exact date is not stated.
The Economic Times (date not stated) cites NITI Aayog: the EU takes about 22% of India's steel and aluminium exports and 39.3% of its iron and steel exports. It also cites a June 2026 ICRIER paper projecting a 24% fall in steel exports to the EU. Usthadian cites a GTRI estimate of 20 to 35% of export value for selected goods.
SMM reports EU imports of Indian non-alloy HRC at 517,315 tonnes in Jan to Jul 2026 against 89,641 (+477.1%), but on a low base and quota-driven; buyers write carbon costs into contract clauses rather than quoted prices.
The material holds no Chinese government statement on CBAM in the window. The only link is a Parliament rapporteur's reference to "resource shuffling" from the Chinese mainland on Sep 15.
In 2026 the cost is small, since only 2.5% of embedded cost is payable; the action has moved to scope (downstream goods), 2027 cash flow, the US review and the UK link.
National markets were a story of linkage and rules, and few prices moved inside the window
Pick a market to read its note, or filter the snapshot by status. Prices from different markets use different units and dates and are not comparable; items dated before Sep 24 are context.
Market notes
UK-EU link: concluded on paper, not yet announced
On Oct 7, 2026, POLITICO reported that four people briefed on the talks said Britain and the EU had agreed to link their emissions trading systems, the first of three negotiating files to close. The summit is internally planned for Nov 20, and both sides say they do not comment on ongoing negotiations. This is press reporting, not an official statement, and no design text is published. Youth mobility and agri-food checks are still open, and the three files move as a package. Carbon Pulse's Oct 14 conference report is more cautious, with speakers calling a deal "increasingly likely" at the November summit.
ClearBlue describes the expected effect as UKAs and EUAs usable interchangeably for compliance, with reciprocal CBAM exemptions, and warns that a "sell the fact" reversal at the formal announcement cannot be ruled out (analyst opinion).
The UK-EU link was the month's biggest policy item, but it rests on press reports alone: no published text, no date for linked trading, and a package condition.
China: CEA touched 99.80 yuan but did not hold 100
Sxcoal reports that CEA prices rose in the first full week after the National Day holiday, hitting 99.80 yuan per tonne but failing to hold 100 yuan. The Oct 12 to 16 range was 95.20 to 99.80 yuan per tonne, and the Oct 16 close of 97.56 yuan was up 1.80% on Oct 9. Sxcoal says compliance deadlines drew demand, but buying faded at higher levels.
Volume was 11.61 Mt (5.44 Mt listed plus 6.17 Mt bulk), up 76.92% per trading day, and turnover was 1.11 bn yuan (USD 165.16 m). General Index put the September month-end CEA at USD 14.09 per tonne, down 2.59% month on month; that is a different source and date, so not one series.
South Korea and Japan: a context price and a rules story
South Korea (K-ETS), before the window. General Index reported Korean allowances above KRW 30,000 on tighter Phase 4 supply, averaging USD 22.27 per tonne in September (+12.75% month on month). The first KAU26 auction on Sep 9 cleared 5.73% above August but did not sell out its 2.83 m allowances.
Japan (GX-ETS). RIETI's October 2026 paper says participation became mandatory in April 2026 after a voluntary phase from fiscal 2023. It regulates at company level, not facility level. Sector benchmarks cover about 90% of regulated emissions and tighten from the top 50% of firms to the top 32.5% by fiscal 2030. The scheme has a price corridor, limited use of credits, and power-sector auctioning from 2033. No GX-ETS price is given.
India (CCTS): a framework without a price yet
Carbon Credits (secondary) lists India with Japan and Vietnam as national ETSs launched in 2026, citing ICAP. Argus P&A (Sep 28) says India's framework is anchored by the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, within a pledge to cut GDP emissions intensity 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. According to The Economic Times, Britain has agreed to recognise the CCTS under the UK CBAM; the date is not stated.
No CCTS price, volume or trading start is given, and the material has nothing on China's expansion to steel, cement and aluminium or absolute caps, nor on Brazil, Indonesia or Turkey.
Washington, California and Québec: linkage is still conditional
The June 2026 framework among the three jurisdictions gives companies no enforceable rights and does not itself permit cross-market compliance. California's governor made the required findings on Sep 21 (context). Washington's Ecology department adopted rule amendments on Sep 23, scheduled to take effect on Oct 24, 2026; linkage-conditioned provisions wait for the linkage date.
Pending: California Air Resources Board rulemaking, Québec National Assembly approval and an Order in Council, then written agreement on an effective date. Washington expects the shared market in 2027 with at least 90 days' notice. No cross-jurisdiction trading is permitted today.
Before the window, Washington's Auction #15 on Sep 2 sold all 6.28 m allowances at USD 39.50, USD 25.06 below June's USD 64.56 (-38.8%). In September WCA closed at USD 38.75 and CCA at USD 32.25, narrowing the spread from USD 21.53 to USD 6.50.
RGGI and California: a record auction and forecasts only
RGGI Auction 73 on Sep 9 sold 28.5 m allowances at a record USD 37.65 per short ton, up USD 2.65 (+7.6%) on June's USD 35.00, in Virginia's first auction since rejoining. All 1,148,000 reserve allowances were sold, so no extra supply remains for the December auction. RGGI is quoted per short ton, so it is not directly comparable with per-tonne WCA and CCA prices. All figures are before the window.
For California, OPIS forecasts V26 Dec 2026 CCAs at USD 35 to 40 per metric tonne by end-2026 (estimate), while most IETA survey respondents expected USD 30 to 35. The USD 32.25 September level sits inside the survey band and below OPIS's.
Snapshot: linkage dominated, prices mostly did not move
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK-EU ETS link | Talks concluded, per four briefed people; summit pencilled for Nov 20 | Oct 7, 2026 | ReportedUnconfirmed | POLITICO |
| UKA Dec-26 on the report | GBP 62.90 intraday, +4.0% on GBP 60.46 | Oct 7, 2026 | Market data | ClearBlue |
| China CEA (spot) | Close 97.56 yuan/t; week range 95.20 to 99.80 | Oct 16, 2026 | Reported | Sxcoal |
| China CEA volume | 11.61 Mt; turnover 1.11 bn yuan | Oct 12 to 16, 2026 | Reported | Sxcoal |
| Japan GX-ETS | Mandatory phase | Since Apr 2026 | In effect | RIETI |
| Washington rule amendments | Take effect; linkage expected 2027 | Oct 24, 2026 | In effectAdopted Sep 23 | Morgan Lewis |
| RGGI Auction 73 (before the window) | USD 37.65 per short ton, 28.5 m allowances | Sep 9, 2026 | ContextRecord | General Index |
| Korea KAU (before the window) | Average USD 22.27 per tonne in September | Sep 2026 | Context | General Index |
Voluntary retirements fell at the two big registries but rose across the market, and quality sets prices
The voluntary market sets prices through volumes, labels and buyers' quality tests, apart from CORSIA, where a legal deadline applies. Every figure names its tracker or assessor and its basis.
Voluntary market at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verra + Gold Standard retirements, H1 2026 | 67.4M credits, -9.3% YoY | Oct 14, 2026 | Reported | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| Wider VCM retirements, H1 2026 | 104 MtCO2 vs 99.8 | Oct 14, 2026 | ReportedTracker not named | Removall via Carbon Pulse |
| CCP-tagged avoidance credits | +50% vs untagged | Oct 15, 2026 | ReportedAnalysts | Carbon Pulse |
| Q3 2026 average prices | REDD+ $6 to 8; biochar $155 to 179 | Oct 21, 2026 | Reported | Sylvera |
| CORSIA CP1 Dec-26 assessment | $13.15/tCO2e | Week of Sep 29, 2026 | ReportedAssessor not named | Green Earth |
| CORSIA Phase 1 eligible units | 36.6M to 41M vs 100M to 250M demand | Oct 9, 2026 | Estimate | Green Fuel Journal |
Verra + Gold Standard retirements in H1, million credits
Removall Carbon's State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report (H1 2026), reported by Carbon Pulse on Oct 14, 2026. It counts credits retired at Verra (more than 49M) and Gold Standard (17M), about 67.4M in total.
Measured in tonnes of CO2 by a tracker the extract does not name, it hit a first-half record of 104 Mt, against 99.8 Mt a year earlier (+4.2%). Another vendor cites 95M credits for H1 2025 without naming its tracker; the page follows Removall, which states its definition.
Company ratings data, Oct 21, 2026, in USD per credit.
Carbon Pulse's 50% is a relative gap for avoidance credits, with no volumes and no proof that the tag alone causes it.
19% for the MSCI Global CCP index over the all-market index since mid-2024, and up to 87% per rating notch for ARR in 2025 (BeZero, via ICVCM).
In 2026, 76% of CCP projects were rated BBB or above against 13% of non-CCP projects. Regreener's October euro ranges (e.g. direct air capture EUR 435 to 1,000) are a different series, so the page does not mix them.
Phase 1 (2024 to 2026) units must come from one of ten ICAO-approved programmes and carry host-country authorisation; operators must cancel them by Jan 31, 2028 (ICAO, via ClimateTrade). Per Sylvera, about 300M credits could qualify but only 38M had cleared every gate (mid-2026), against base-case demand of 163M units; 163 - 38 is about 125M, Sylvera's stated gap.
IATA puts demand at 200M to 250M units and the gap near 150M (Sep 18, 2026); definitions differ, so the gaps do not reconcile.
2.6M credits are authorised and 18.2M lack a Letter of Authorisation; together (20.8M) they would cover the 17M to 18M ASEAN airlines need (Boeing, GenZero, Abatable, July 2026).
Prices have not followed the shortage. Reported points: USD 9.30 in late June or early July (Argus low; sources differ on the date), USD 15.75 on Jul 1 (OPIS), just above USD 12 in mid-September (Tasman). Assessors differ, so the page computes no change across them.
The Commission now expects its Implementing Act on credits for EU airlines in Q1 2027, moved from Q4 2026 (reported). Phase 2 starts Jan 1, 2027. Next dates: the 2025 sector growth factor, due by Oct 31, and ICAO Council's 239th session in October to November.
On Sep 28, 2026, ICVCM approved Verra's VM0049 Carbon Capture and Storage v1.0 under the Core Carbon Principles, including direct air capture (VMD0056) and BECCS (VMD0059) modules (Verra release). The label covers the methodology, not each project. On Sep 22, Japan Airlines and Climeworks Solutions announced what they call the first CORSIA-compliant removal purchase; volume undisclosed.
An unnamed analytics firm says permanent-removal supply fell over 75% in 2026 and removal retirements over 50% after 2025's record; only a summary is available. SBTi's Net-Zero Standard V2 (published Jun 11, 2026) makes removal support voluntary until 2035, then at least 1% of ongoing emissions.
Three deals show how.
$11.7M for 20,932 t, delivery 2028 to 2031, an implied $559/t (11.7M / 20,932).
A $72M, 3.5-year principal-protected note paid from verified biochar credits of Applied Carbon (Texas); Microsoft's 2022 offtake is existing, and terms are undisclosed.
First Isometric-issued credits from EcoFix Kenya, with agreements for up to 97,240 t, including Climeworks Solutions (2,000 t committed, 14,000 t reserved).
Compliance cost is rule-dependent for EU emitters, capped for importers in 2026 and shortage-driven for airlines
The material records rules, prices and a few deals rather than company disclosures, so the responses below are what the evidence shows, not surveys. Choose a reader to see what changed and what follows.
What changed and what it means, by reader
EU importers (cement, steel, aluminium, fertiliser)
Q3 price EUR 82.32, +9.4% on Q2; certificate sales start Feb 1, 2027; the downstream extension is under negotiation. In 2026 CBAM costs little: 2.5% of embedded cost is payable, so 100 tonnes left to cover cost 100 x EUR 82.32 = EUR 8,232 for Q3 imports. From 2027 prices turn weekly, the payable share doubles to 5%, and declarants must hold certificates for at least 50% of embedded emissions at each quarter-end. In the one commercial signal in the material, buyers of Indian hot-rolled coil write carbon costs into contract clauses rather than quoted prices (SMM, reported).
Model 2026 exposure at 2.5% of embedded cost and budget for weekly prices and a 5% payable share from 2027.
EU ETS emitters
The compliance benchmark sat near EUR 86 per tonne (EUR 86.14 on Oct 22, reported). The Oct 20 provisional deal raises the reserve invalidation threshold from 400 million to 700 million allowances (+75%), and the Commission's July review package, still under negotiation, proposes a free-allocation phase-out for CBAM sectors to 2038. The ETS2 start stays at 2028 with a further delay requested but not adopted.
Treat supply rules as unsettled until formal adoption; keep ETS2 at 2028.
Exporters to the UK, and US producers
UK CBAM starts on Jan 1, 2027 for five sectors with a GBP 50,000 registration threshold, and HMRC published default emissions values on Oct 16. The US trade office is taking comments on how CBAM affects US producers until Nov 9. A UK-EU ETS link could bring mutual CBAM exemption, but it is a press report only.
Prepare UK registration data before Jan 1, 2027; US producers can comment by Nov 9.
Compliance buyers in North America and Asia
Washington's amendments take effect on Oct 24; China's CEA closed near 97.56 yuan on Oct 16 (reported); Japan's GX-ETS has been mandatory since April. Cross-jurisdiction trading among Washington, California and Québec is not yet permitted, and each scheme quotes its own unit.
Cross-market trading is not yet permitted; check each scheme's own rules.
Voluntary credit buyers
Registry retirements fell 9.3% but the market set a record, and buying is shifting to labelled and rated supply: CCP-tagged avoidance credits are priced 50% above untagged ones, and credits rated BBB or higher were 43% of issuance in Q1 to Q3 2026 against 28% a year earlier (reported). Removal finance is getting structured, such as Frontier's USD 11.7M for 20,932 t (about USD 559 per tonne) and Citi's USD 72M note. SBTi's Net-Zero Standard V2 makes removal support voluntary until 2035.
Buy against a stated definition and rating, not headline volume.
Airlines under CORSIA
Airlines face a legal deadline: the CP1 Dec-26 assessment stood at USD 13.15 and about 38M units had cleared every gate against base-case demand of 163M. 502,000 CORSIA credits were retired in H1 2026 against 14,000 in all of 2025, and Japan Airlines announced a removal purchase from Climeworks Solutions (volume undisclosed).
Check unit eligibility and host-country authorisation against the Jan 31, 2028 cancellation deadline.
Three points that run through it
The EUA is a market price, the CBAM certificate price is a quarterly average of auction closing prices, and CORSIA units are assessed by separate providers, so none should be netted against another.
That leaves the rest of 2026 for data, registration and contracts.
The UK-EU link is a press report, the MSR deal needs formal adoption, and the downstream CBAM extension is a proposal.
Most dated obligations fall in 2027, so use the rest of 2026 for data, registration and contracts
Dates before Oct 24, 2026 are marked In effect; later ones are Upcoming. The page describes markets and rules; it is not investment advice.
Timetable
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | CBAM definitive period starts | In effect | Slaughter and May |
| Apr 2026 | Japan GX-ETS becomes mandatory | In effect | RIETI |
| Sep 1, 2026 | MSR withdrawal from auctions (190.5m allowances over 12 months) begins | In effect | GX via General Index |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Commission publishes Q3 CBAM price, EUR 82.32 | In effect | GMK Center |
| Oct 8, 2026 | USTR notice on CBAM in the Federal Register | In effect | Federal Register |
| Oct 16, 2026 | HMRC publishes UK CBAM default emissions values | In effect | Carbon Herald |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Provisional agreement on MSR threshold, 400m to 700m (formal adoption pending) | In effectProvisional | Council |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Washington cap-and-invest amendments take effect | In effect | Morgan Lewis |
| Oct 31, 2026 | CORSIA 2025 sector growth factor due | Upcoming | Green Fuel Journal |
| Nov 9, 2026 | USTR comments on CBAM close | Upcoming | Federal Register |
| Nov 20, 2026 | UK-EU summit planned internally, date not announced | UpcomingReported | POLITICO |
| Jan 1, 2027 | UK CBAM starts | Upcoming | GOV.UK |
| Jan 4, 2027 | Commission publishes Q4 CBAM price | Upcoming | SteelOrbis |
| Feb 1, 2027 | CBAM certificate sales start | Upcoming | SteelOrbis |
| Q1 2027 | EU Implementing Act on CORSIA credits for EU airlines expected | UpcomingReported | Green Earth |
| 2027 | Washington-California-Québec linkage expected, with at least 90 days' notice | Upcoming | Morgan Lewis |
| Sep 30, 2027 | First CBAM declaration and surrender due | Upcoming | Greener Ahead |
| Jan 31, 2028 | CORSIA Phase 1 unit cancellation deadline | Upcoming | ClimateTrade |
| 2028 | ETS2 start | Upcoming | ClimateTrade |