1. Key takeaways from the month
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, Chinese carmakers sold more cars abroad than ever, Europe counted them at very different shares depending on the definition, and the rules shifted from duties towards quotas and local assembly. Five conclusions explain the month; each is supported in the chapter named in brackets, with every item judged against Oct 24, 2026.
1. Exports, not the home market, carried the industry's September. CAAM reported auto exports of 1.053 million (+61.4% year on year) and NEV exports of 571,000 (+160%), which is 54.2% of all exports, with 8.205 million vehicles in January–September. CPCA's NEV wholesale of 1.666 million exceeded retail of 1.084 million by 582,000, and passenger NEV exports of 558,000 are 96% of that gap. BYD group sold 180,700 vehicles abroad (39.0% of its total) and 1,342,960 in nine months, already above its 2025 total of about 1.05 million. National nine-month exports already exceed all of 2025 (7.09 million) by 15.7%. [Chapter 2]
2. In Europe the "Chinese share" is a definition, not one number. Five Chinese-owned groups registered 214,113 cars in EU+EFTA+UK in September, 15.7% of 1.363 million, while BYD, Chery, SAIC and Leapmotor together took 11.7% across EU+EFTA+UK but 8.5% inside the EU alone. For August, ACEA's five groups held 12.4% against 11.7% for Dataforce's Chinese brands, so the two series cannot be mixed. Reading by brand, the UK put Chinese brands at 23.3% (81,776 of 350,536) and Germany at 6.1% (15,784 of 256,774). Outside Europe the material is thin, apart from Australia, where EVs reached 24.2% of September sales. [Chapter 3]
3. Plants started first where a partner already had one. Leapmotor's B10 entered series production at Stellantis' Zaragoza plant on Oct 16, after an Oct 12 announcement. BYD's Szeged plant, due at the end of 2025, is now promised for Q4 2026, about 12 months late, and is not yet in series. BYD's $1bn Türkiye plant is suspended, and the second European site is only shortlisted, with France and Spain named and no final investment decision. Stellantis holds 51% of Leapmotor International, and the B05 is due at Zaragoza from Q1 2027. The lesson is that partner-plant conversions start years before greenfield builds. [Chapter 4]
4. Trade policy is moving from duties to quotas and local-content rules. The EU-China understanding of Oct 9 would cap hybrid imports at 350,000 in year one (reported, start as soon as Dec 1), which is +15.9% on 2025's 302,000 but 43.8% of the 800,000 the EU expected for 2026. Duties on China-built BEVs of 7.8%–35.3% on top of 10% remain in force. Mexico kept its 50% tariff yet cut kit-parts duty to 0% from Oct 14 for 11 automakers with Mexican plants. Canada replaced a 100% surtax with a quota of 49,000 China-built EVs a year at 6.1%. The common design taxes the finished car and discounts the kit. [Chapter 5]
5. Several load-bearing numbers are reported, not confirmed. The EU quota has no published Commission text at Oct 12, Thailand's excise rise to at least 30% is a ministry proposal for Jan 1, 2027, and Chery's export tally does not reconcile. Canada's quota is a counter-example of slack: only 32.5% of 49,000 permits are used. Most CAAM, CPCA and company figures reach us through media, so each is marked "via". [Chapters 2, 5]
1.1 Exports at a glance
| Indicator | Value | Period | Release date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China auto exports, all vehicles (CAAM) | 1.053 million (+61.4% YoY) | September 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | CAAM (via SMM) |
| China auto exports, all vehicles (CAAM) | 8.205 million (+65.8% YoY) | Jan–Sep 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | CAAM (via SMM) |
| China NEV exports, BEV + PHEV (CAAM) | 571,000 (+160% YoY); 54.2% of exports | September 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | CAAM (via CnEVPost) |
| China passenger NEV exports (CPCA) | 558,000 (+163.5% YoY) | September 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | CPCA (via CnEVPost) |
| BYD group NEV overseas sales | 180,700 (+153.6% YoY) | September 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | BYD (via Eletric-vehicles.com) |
| BYD group NEV overseas sales | 1,342,960 (+92.7% YoY) | Jan–Sep 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | BYD (via Eletric-vehicles.com) |
| Geely Auto exports | 106,685 (+162.35% YoY) | September 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | CnEVPost |
| Great Wall Motor overseas sales | 60,019 (+19.4% YoY) | September 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | CnEVPost |
| Chery Automobile exports (secondary tally) | 200,900 | September 2026 | By Oct 3, 2026 | BigGo Finance |
2. Exports and overseas sales
Chapter 1 sets out the month's conclusions; this chapter gives the export and overseas-sales volumes behind them, by association, brand and group. Every figure below is a September 2026 or January–September 2026 release (all published Oct 1–12, 2026, so all are final as of Oct 24). The material holds no primary pages, so CAAM, CPCA and company numbers are quoted as relayed by media and marked "via".
2.1 Exports at a glance
| Item (scope) | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China auto exports, all vehicles (CAAM) | Sept 1.053 million (+61.4% YoY, +4.2% MoM); Jan–Sep 8.205 million (+65.8% YoY) | Oct 12 | Reported (official release) | CAAM (via SMM) |
| China NEV exports, BEV + PHEV, incl. commercial (CAAM) | Sept 571,000 (+160% YoY, +8.6% MoM); Jan–Sep 4.006 million (+130% YoY) | Oct 12 | Reported (official release) | CAAM (via CnEVPost) |
| China passenger NEV exports (CPCA) | Sept 558,000 (+163.5% YoY, +7.7% MoM); Jan–Sep 3.887 million (+138.8% YoY) | Oct 12 | Reported (official release) | CPCA (via CnEVPost) |
| China passenger vehicle exports incl. CKD kits (CPCA) | Sept 917,000 (+73.7% YoY) | Oct 12 | Reported | CPCA (via CnEVPost) |
| BYD group NEV overseas sales | Sept 180,700 (+153.6% YoY); Jan–Sep 1,342,960 (+92.7% YoY) | Oct 1 | Reported (HKEX filing) | BYD (via Eletric-vehicles.com) |
| Chery Automobile (listed entity) exports | Sept 200,900; Jan–Sep 1.55 million (+65.6% YoY) | By Oct 3 | Reported (secondary tally) | BigGo Finance |
| SAIC Motor group overseas sales | Sept 150,000 (+49.1% YoY); Jan–Sep 1.166 million (+52.4% YoY) | By Oct 3 | Reported (secondary tally) | BigGo Finance |
| Geely Auto exports | Sept 106,685 (+162.35% YoY, -3.10% MoM); Jan–Sep 797,700 (+169% YoY) | Oct 1 | Reported (company data) | CnEVPost; BigGo Finance |
| Great Wall Motor overseas sales | Sept 60,019 (+19.4% YoY); Jan–Sep 475,977 (+42.43% YoY) | Oct 1 | Reported (company data) | CnEVPost |
| Leapmotor overseas sales | Sept about 27,000, of 105,656 total deliveries | Oct 1 | Reported (company statement via media) | CarNewsChina |
2.2 National exports: what CAAM and CPCA each count
CAAM counts all vehicles, including commercial ones. CPCA counts passenger vehicles only, and its exports include CKD kits. CAAM published on Oct 12; CPCA gave a wholesale estimate on Oct 9 and a full analysis on Oct 12. The two series should not be added or mixed.
CAAM's September split checks out: 571,000 NEV + 482,000 fuel-vehicle exports = 1,053,000. NEVs were therefore 571 ÷ 1,053 = 54.2% of exports, above half for a fourth straight month. For the nine months the NEV share is lower, 4.006 ÷ 8.205 = 48.8%, still below half. By powertrain, September NEV exports were 352,000 BEVs (+130%) and 219,000 PHEVs (+220%). Nine-month exports of 8.205 million already exceed all of 2025 (7.09 million) by 8.205 ÷ 7.09 − 1 = 15.7%. CAAM's Chen Shihua said full-year exports could exceed 10 million. That is CAAM's view, not ours. It would need 10 − 8.205 = 1.795 million in Q4, about 598,000 a month, against 1.053 million in September.
The headline +160% is CAAM's rounded figure. On the monthly series (571,000 vs 222,000 in September 2025), 571 ÷ 222 = 2.57x, or +157%. That is within rounding.
CPCA's passenger-only view agrees on direction. NEV exports were 558,000, or 558 ÷ 917 = 60.8% of passenger exports. By powertrain they split 60.5% BEV, 34.2% PHEV and 5.3% EREV. The top five NEV exporters (CPCA, September, passenger NEVs) were BYD 175,800, Chery 85,900, Geely 72,800, Tesla China 30,500 and Changan 29,500. On the 558,000 base that is BYD 31.5%, Chery 15.4% and Geely 13.0%, about 60% for the top three.
September NEV exports of 571,000 (CAAM) are what held up the industry's wholesale numbers: CPCA's NEV wholesale of 1.666 million exceeded retail of 1.084 million by 582,000 units, and 558,000 of that gap is passenger NEV exports (96%).
Check the arithmetic: 1,666 − 1,084 = 582 and 558 ÷ 582 = 96%. CPCA's preliminary NEV retail figure on Oct 10 (1.141 million, −12%) was later replaced by 1.084 million (−16.7%) on Oct 12. We follow the Oct 12 figure, which two sources report. CAAM and CPCA also differ on passenger exports: 919,000 (+64.2%) against 917,000 (+73.7%). The material does not reconcile the growth rates. One policy note, which Chapter 5 does not cover: a report says China will cut the NEV export VAT rebate from 13% to 9% from Apr 1, 2027 (announced Oct 12, not yet in effect).
2.3 Brands and groups: who exports how much
Group-level and brand-level figures are labelled separately below, and the entities differ by source.
BYD (group, not the BYD brand). Overseas sales were 180,700 in September, 39.0% of the group's 463,561. Domestic sales of 282,861 equal 463,561 − 180,700. September was 4.6% below August's record 189,466. BYD said passenger cars and pickups accounted for 179,877 of the overseas total (+153.9%). We follow the +153.6% growth rate, which matches 180,700 ÷ 71,256, over CleanTechnica's 154.6%. Nine-month overseas sales of 1,342,960 are 42.9% of the group's 3,131,576 and already above BYD's full-year 2025 total of about 1.05 million. Deutsche Bank uses 1,342,468, a 492-unit difference that does not matter here. According to a Deutsche Bank note on BYD's investor call, BYD raised its 2026 overseas target to 1.9–2.0 million (reported, not a BYD release in the material). Hitting it needs (1.9 million − 1,342,960) ÷ 3 = 185,700 a month in Q4, or 219,000 for 2.0 million.
Geely Auto. Exports of 106,685 ended an eight-month record streak, falling from 110,094 in August (−3.1%). They were 36.5% of its 292,168 total, while domestic sales fell 20.21% to 185,483. The nine-month figure of 797,700 is 35.7% of 2.2355 million, according to BigGo Finance.
Chery. Chery is the least certain entry. According to BigGo Finance, the listed entity sold 276,900 vehicles in September, 200,900 of them exports (72.6%), and 1.55 million exports in nine months (+65.6%), above its full-year 2025 exports. The same tally gives a 70.3% overseas share and 2.0769 million total sales, but 1.55 ÷ 2.0769 = 74.6%, so the figures do not reconcile. CnEVPost's Chery Group September total is 292,308, a different entity. Treat Chery's numbers as indicative until its own release.
SAIC, Great Wall, Leapmotor. SAIC Motor's 1.166 million overseas vehicles are 37.1% of its 3.147 million total. The material has no MG-brand export figure. The only MG number, +101.9% to 32,451, is a China-market sales figure (Best Selling Cars Blog) and is not exports. Great Wall's 60,019 overseas sales were 52.2% of its 114,944 total and above its 54,925 China sales. Growth was its slowest this year, and sales were 4.0% below August's record 62,517. Leapmotor's roughly 27,000 overseas vehicles are 27 ÷ 105.656 = 25.6% of its record deliveries; no nine-month overseas figure is given.
Taken together, BYD leads on NEV exports (CPCA), while Chery reportedly leads on total exports (BigGo), because scope differs. The five groups' nine-month exports (1.55 + 1.343 + 1.166 + 0.798 + 0.476 = 5.333 million) are about 5.333 ÷ 8.205 = 65% of CAAM's national total. This is an indicative cross-source sum, not a reported figure.
3. Market share in key markets
Chapter 2 counted the cars that left China; this chapter counts the ones registered at the other end. The two series do not reconcile: shipments and registrations are counted at different points, and each registration series below covers one region.
3.1 Share snapshot, September 2026
All figures are published data as of 2026-10-24. "Group" is ACEA's manufacturer group; "brands" is a list of marques.
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU+EFTA+UK new cars, September | 1.363M (+10.2%); BEV share 30.5% | ACEA, Oct 22 | Published | ChinaEVHome (via ACEA) |
| EU-27 BEV share | 29.9% September; 22.7% Jan–Sep (16.1% a year earlier) | ACEA, Oct 22 | Published | ACEA; electrive |
| Five Chinese-owned groups, EU+EFTA+UK, September | 214,113 = 15.7% (computed below) | Oct 22 | Estimate (our sum) | — |
| BYD group, EU+EFTA+UK | 49,953 (+98.7%), about 3.7%; Jan–Sep 283,997 (+134.6%) | Oct 22 | Published | electrive (via ACEA) |
| Chery group (Chery, Jaecoo, Jetour, Omoda) | 52,801 (+185.5%), about 3.9%; Jan–Sep 260,650 (+255.9%) | Oct 22 | Published | electrive (via ACEA) |
| SAIC (MG) | 41,987 (+23.7%), about 3.1%; Jan–Sep 272,251 (+20.3%) | Oct 22 | Published | electrive (via ACEA) |
| Leapmotor | 14,594 (+323.9%), about 1.1%; Jan–Sep 87,922 (+424.2%) | Oct 22 | Published | electrive (via ACEA) |
| Geely Group (incl. Volvo, Polestar) | 54,778 (+33.3%), about 4.0%; Jan–Sep 343,875 (+14.5%) | Oct 22 | Published | ChinaEVHome (via ACEA) |
| UK, Chinese brands (15) | 81,776 of 350,536 = 23.3%; Jan–Sep 17.5% | SMMT, early Oct | Published | GoodCarBadCar |
| Germany, Chinese brands | 15,784 of 256,774 = 6.1%; Jan–Sep 4.5% | KBA, Oct 5 | Published | GoodCarBadCar |
| Australia, BEV share | 24.2% September (Aug record 24.8%) | FCAI, Oct 6 | Published | The Driven |
Group shares divide registrations by the 1.363M total (BYD: 49,953 ÷ 1,363,000 = 3.7%). The five-group sum is 49,953 + 52,801 + 41,987 + 14,594 + 54,778 = 214,113, and 214,113 ÷ 1,363,000 = 15.7%.
3.2 Europe: share depends on the footprint and the definition
In September about one new car in six in EU+EFTA+UK came from a Chinese-owned group, but the figure falls to roughly one in twelve in the EU alone, and three differently defined "Chinese share" numbers circulate.
The footprint effect is large. In the EU-27 alone, BYD registered 28,309, Chery 20,707, SAIC 22,978 and Leapmotor 10,229 in September, which is 82,223 cars, or 8.5% of 971,048. Across EU+EFTA+UK the same four groups registered 159,335, or 11.7% of 1.363M. The gap comes largely from the UK and EFTA markets (section 3.3). Over January–September, ACEA shares in the EU were BYD 2.4% (1.0% a year earlier), Chery 1.6% (0.5%), SAIC 2.2% (1.9%) and Geely Group 2.8% (2.7%), against Volkswagen Group 26.2% (27.5%) (ACEA via Seeking Alpha).
The definitions differ. ACEA counts groups across all powertrains: Volvo, Polestar, Lotus and smart sit inside Geely Group, and Leapmotor sells through a Stellantis-controlled joint venture. Dataforce counts Chinese brands only. For August, ACEA's five groups held 12.4% of EU+EFTA+UK (103,490 cars), while Dataforce put Chinese brands at a record 11.7% (97,639 cars, up from about 5.5%). We follow ACEA for group comparisons and Dataforce for "Chinese brands". Within ACEA's EU-only view, the five groups' combined share rose from 6.6% to 10.8% in August (data released Sep 24). Transitions Lab's claim that Chinese brands "crossed 4%" in March 2026 conflicts with every figure above, so we do not use it.
Rankings flip with the definition. Geely Group (54,778) edges Chery (52,801) in September, but its figure includes Volvo and Polestar, so the two are not like-for-like.
Growth is also narrow. In eight European countries, BYD and Leapmotor supplied 68% of the 54,240 BEV registrations Chinese brands added.
3.3 UK and Germany: brands, registrations and BEV
The UK explains the gap above. SMMT figures, reported in early October, put Chinese brands at 81,776 of 350,536 registrations, 23.3%, against 38,934 and about 12.4% a year earlier (all powertrains, 15 brands). SMMT's release date is given as Oct 2 and Oct 5; a CleanTechnica article dated Oct 4 already used the data, so we follow Oct 2. The total is 350,518 in ref_35; we follow 350,536, and the share is the same either way.
| UK, September 2026 | Registrations | Share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volkswagen (benchmark) | 25,972 | 7.4% | EV Compared |
| BYD | 20,140 | 5.7% | EV Compared |
| MG | 18,026 | 5.1% | EV Compared |
| Jaecoo | 15,057 | 4.3% | EV Compared |
| Omoda | 7,241 | 2.1% | EV Compared |
BYD UK's own count is 20,129; we use SMMT's. Chery's four UK brands totalled 32,823 (9.36%), and 124,365 year to date (7.15%), according to Electric Cars Report. A BEV-only reading is not possible: the 81,776 covers all fuels, while the UK BEV share was 28.3% (99,199 cars). The Independent's "20%" uses a narrower list.
Germany shows the opposite. KBA counted Chinese brands at 15,784 of 256,774 (6.1%), with BYD at 6,040 (2.4%), and BEV share at 34.5%. The only BEV-specific data is evstats.org's eight-country set (CH, CZ, DE, ES, FI, IE, NL, SE; UK, France, Italy and Norway excluded): Chinese brands took 10.1% of BEV registrations in January–September (7.0% a year earlier) and 11.8% in September.
3.4 Australia and emerging markets: strong in Australia, thin elsewhere
FCAI figures, released Oct 6, show EVs at 24.2% of September sales and BEVs at 18.9% year to date (8.1% in 2025). The total market grew under 1%. Electric Vehicle Council totals put EVs at 26,087 in September, above petrol (26,018). Eight Chinese-brand models in the top ten sold 11,592 (2,687 + 2,008 + 1,754 + 1,628 + 1,211 + 936 + 735 + 633), about 44% of 26,087, a rough floor because it mixes two sources. BYD sold more than 68,000 cars in January–August, second only to Toyota (The Conversation). AFR reports that China-made cars were over four in five EVs bought since February.
Elsewhere the material is thin. Transitions Lab (Oct 8) cites about 15.7% for Chinese OEMs in ASEAN-6 in H1 2026 and 25.2% for electrified vehicles in Brazil in 2026, but the latter is not a Chinese share and has no month. Thailand's Chinese-brand share is charted to January–July 2026 with no number in the text. Nothing quantifies Mexico, Indonesia or Turkey. The US share is effectively zero because, in press descriptions, hefty tariffs bar Chinese EVs (no US rate is in the material; see Chapter 5).
4. Overseas plants and partnerships
Chapter 3 covered market share by market; this chapter covers the supply behind it, meaning where Chinese brands build, or plan to build, outside China. The month produced one start, in Spain, and one slip, in Hungary.
4.1 Plants and partnerships at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (as of 2026-10-24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Szeged, Hungary | ~€4bn; 150,000 cars a year initially, 300,000 long term | Mass production "in Q4 2026" (Oct 12) | Announced; trial production since Jan, not yet in series | Moneybuzz; Hungarian Conservative (Bloomberg TV) |
| BYD further European plants | France and Spain shortlisted; no final investment decision | Oct 12 | Under consideration | Hungarian Conservative |
| BYD Camaçari, Brazil | 150,000 a year, scalable to 300,000 | Cars on line by Feb 3; supplier plant opened Oct 2026 | Operating (reported) | Transitions Lab; Reuters photo; Nexteer |
| BYD Türkiye | $1bn plant | Suspended; date not stated | On hold | Hungarian Conservative |
| Leapmotor B10, Zaragoza, Spain | Series production; B05 allocated Oct 19 | Oct 12 announced; Oct 16 series start | In production | CnEVPost; InsideEVs |
| Leapmotor Mallén battery workshop | €25m; ~60,000 battery units a year | Date not stated | Reported operating | AutoNext |
| Chery–Ebro, Barcelona | ~€150m conversion; Ebro 60%, Chery 40% | Date not stated | Operating (reported) | Transitions Lab |
| SAIC Galicia, Spain | First SAIC plant in Europe | Start slated 2028 | Under construction (reported) | Transitions Lab |
| Xpeng G9L, Graz, Austria | Fourth Xpeng model built by Magna in Europe | Oct 7 trial run | Trial production | Xpeng (via Global Times) |
| Geely Auto, Canada | Local team and dealer network; no plant | Oct 9; first cars 2027 | Announced | Geely release (GlobeNewswire) |
4.2 BYD: Hungary slips again, the rest is quieter
At the Paris Motor Show on Oct 12, BYD EVP Stella Li told Bloomberg TV that Szeged will start mass production in the fourth quarter of 2026. A Deutsche Bank note on BYD's investor call narrows this to November or December (via eletric-vehicles.com). The plant was first expected to build the Dolphin Surf by the end of 2025, so the start is about 12 months late. The ~€4bn figure is Reuters's valuation, relayed by Moneybuzz; the site has a 170,000 m² assembly building for the Dolphin Surf and Atto 2, with lines installed and under test in April.
One conflict. Transitions Lab (Oct 8) says Szeged reaches full series output in Q2 2026 at about 200,000 cars a year. We follow BYD's Q4 timing and the 150,000 initial capacity, because Q2 has passed without a series start.
The frictions are press-reported. Hungarian Conservative says BYD is contesting a HUF 10m (about $31,000) soil-testing fine and that ex-minister Péter Szijjártó, now a BYD executive, was questioned by a parliamentary committee. Quartz (via Bloomberg) adds two construction deaths and a China Labor Watch forced-labour report, which Li denied.
Beyond Szeged, Li named France and Spain as candidates, but "no final investment decisions have been announced". BYD wants more than 40,000 European staff by 2030, against just over 10,000 now. According to GNSGO, a second plant is due to be selected by end-2026. Türkiye is the casualty: the planned $1bn plant was suspended earlier this year, with Hungary prioritised. Transitions Lab lists Manisa as on hold.
Outside Europe, Transitions Lab puts Camaçari at 150,000 cars a year, scalable to 300,000, and reports Rayong, Thailand, at about a third of nameplate after its first 100,000 units. On Oct 20, supplier Nexteer said its new steering-assembly plant, 10 km from BYD's Camaçari site, began production in early October. The material has no capacity or start-date update for BYD Indonesia.
BYD's European plan is still a plan: Szeged is built and tested but has not made a series car, and the second plant, the hiring target and the Türkiye reversal show intent, not delivered capacity.
4.3 Leapmotor and Stellantis: the partner-plant route works first
Leapmotor said at the Paris show on Oct 12 that the B10 had entered production at Stellantis' Zaragoza (Figueruelas) plant. InsideEVs and East Asia Brief date the official series start to Oct 16, and ChinaEVHome reports the first production car on that day. We use Oct 12 for the announcement and Oct 16 for the start. Chinese media had reported a Q3 2026 target in August 2025, so the start came 16 days after Q3 ended (Sept 30 to Oct 16). AutoNext says pre-series output ran at one to six cars a day, with 400 staff hired and up to 500 more planned. Annual capacity is undisclosed.
What follows is a pipeline, not a volume:
- B05 hatchback: allocated to Zaragoza on Oct 19, with a Q1 2027 start per East Asia Brief and EFE (via InsideEVs).
- Opel C-segment SUV: second line planned for 2028, and a proposed transfer of Stellantis' Villaverde plant (Madrid) to Leapmotor International's Spanish unit (both announced May 8).
- Battery chain: the €25m Mallén workshop employs 90 people and is sized for 60,000 units, with room for 100,000. A Stellantis–CATL 50 GWh LFP cell plant (up to €4.1bn) is targeted for end-2026.
The deal structure matters. Stellantis paid €1.5bn in October 2023 for about 20% of Leapmotor, and holds 51% of Leapmotor International, which has exclusive rights outside Greater China. The 2024 Tychy (Poland) T03 kit assembly ended March 30, 2025. According to East Asia Brief, Stellantis said on Oct 20 that Spanish parts exceed 40% of component value; AutoNext says a Zaragoza car avoids the 20.7% countervailing duty, which on top of the 10% duty is 10% + 20.7% = 30.7% on a China-built B10 (tariff detail: Chapter 5).
Other partner routes are smaller. Chery converted Nissan's Barcelona plant with Ebro for about €150m. Xpeng finished a first G9L trial run at Magna Graz on Oct 7. Changan, Chery and GAC are "expanding" European production, but the material gives no figures.
4.4 Entry without a plant: Canada, Mexico and the US
Geely Auto's Oct 9 release says a Canadian team is in place and a retail and service network is being built for first sales in 2027; model, price and locations are not disclosed. No plant is announced. ChinaEVHome calls Geely the first Chinese automaker to confirm Canadian entry, yet Lotus delivered 18 Eletre in June and Omoda and Jaecoo plan late-2026 launches; we treat Geely as the latest entrant. Quota terms are in Chapter 5. In Mexico, GAC announced SKD assembly for Q4 2026, according to Cluster Industrial (via Forwarder News), though its facility purchase was not complete.
The US has no plant route. Trump said on Sept 11 he would be "OK with" Chinese-built plants, but Commerce Secretary Lutnick said "not cars" in April, and the connected-vehicle rule bars Chinese-linked makers from selling US-built cars from model year 2027. The Sept 25 Board of Investment fact sheet does not mention cars.
In short, partner-plant conversions (Zaragoza, Barcelona, Graz) start years earlier than greenfield builds like Szeged (planned end-2025, now Q4 2026) and Galicia (2028).
5. Tariffs and subsidies by country
Chapter 4 showed carmakers moving production abroad; this chapter explains the trade rules that push them to do so. All rates below come from press reports and trade-policy analysts, because the material holds no official EU, Mexican or Thai legal text.
5.1 Tracker: instrument, rate, date, status
| Country / bloc | Instrument and key figure | Date | Status (as of Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Safeguard quota on hybrids and plug-in hybrids: 350,000 in year 1, +6% a year, four years | Understanding Oct 9; start "as soon as" Dec 1, 2026 | Reported; Commission text unpublished at Oct 12 | Bloomberg; EV |
| EU | Countervailing duty on China-built BEVs: 7.8%–35.3% on top of 10%; hybrids pay 10% only | Since Oct 30, 2024 | In force | Global Trade Alert |
| EU | Price undertaking, Volkswagen (Anhui) Cupra Tavascan: minimum price, volume limit, investment milestones | Accepted Feb 9, 2026; in force Feb 11 | In force; only one so far | Global Trade Alert |
| Canada | 49,000 permits a year at 6.1% (was a 100% surtax); window 2 holds 33,397 | Window 2: Sep 1, 2026 to Feb 28, 2027 | Quota window open | EV |
| Mexico | 50% on cars from countries without a trade agreement | Since Jan 1, 2026 | In force | Rio Times |
| Mexico | Assembly-kit parts duty cut from 10% to 0% for five years, 11 automakers with Mexican plants | Effective Oct 14, 2026 | In force | Forwarder News; Reuters via Ground News |
| Thailand | Excise on fully imported EVs from 10% to at least 30% | Proposed for Jan 1, 2027 | Proposed (ministry source) | Nation Thailand |
5.2 EU: a hybrid quota instead of a hybrid duty
The second China-EU trade consultation (Beijing, Oct 8-9, 2026) ended with an understanding on hybrids. Trade Commissioner Šefčovič said it "opens the prospect of cutting China's exports by more than a half". The numbers are leaks, not a published measure. A document seen by Bloomberg sets 350,000 in the first year, rising 6% a year, for four years, from as soon as Dec 1. The cap would formally cover hybrid imports from all countries, with China's quota no smaller than any other supplier's. China's Commerce Ministry confirmed on Oct 12 an "upward arrangement" built on 2025, when the EU imported 302,000 Chinese hybrids (107,000 in 2024).
Whether the cap is a "cut" depends on the baseline (arithmetic from):
- Year-1 cap versus 2025: 350,000 ÷ 302,000 = 1.159, so +15.9%.
- Versus about 800,000 expected for 2026 (reported EU projection): 350,000 ÷ 800,000 = 43.8%, a 56% cut.
- Path at +6%: 350,000, 371,000, 393,260, 416,856. Total about 1.53 million.
- July 2026 imports were about 50,000 a month, so 50,000 × 12 = 600,000, about 70% above the cap.
Two conflicts. Bloomberg earlier cited a person saying Šefčovič told officials imports would fall to about 400,000 a year; we follow the 350,000 in the document. Ground News writes "from 2027", while the other sources say Dec 1, 2026; we follow Dec 1 as unconfirmed. Still open: over-quota treatment, extended-range EVs and company allocation. EU leaders were due to discuss it on Oct 15-16; the material records no outcome.
BEVs did not change. Šefčovič confirmed that the Jan 2026 price-undertaking guidance remains valid, with no new minimum price. Company duties run from Tesla China 7.8% to SAIC 35.3%, on top of 10% (BYD 17.0%, Geely 18.8%). The Commission guidance of Jan 12, 2026 lets an exporter avoid the duty with a per-model minimum price. Volkswagen (Anhui) is the only user, and the price is unpublished. On the Chinese side, the understanding includes lower tariffs on EU car parts, olive oil and footwear, covering nearly €4 billion of exports and saving at least €225 million a year; the timetable is open. Global Trade Alert (GTA) shows why hybrids were targeted:
| Share of units the EU imported from China | 2023 | 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery-electric | 69% | 45% | n/a |
| Hybrids (plug-in and conventional) | 7% | 31% | 39% |
Source: Global Trade Alert, from Trade Data Monitor.
The EU is replacing a duty with a quantity limit on the segment that escaped the duty. Beijing reads it as growth, Brussels as a halving.
GTA adds that a price floor leaves the margin with the exporter. At the 2025 average border price of US$19,188 and a 20.7% duty, the duty is US$3,972; the 10% tariff on the higher price returns US$397, so customs collects about US$3,600 less per car. On subsidies, the Commission's Industrial Accelerator Act (proposed March 2026, awaiting trilogue) would tie public spending on EVs to Union-origin assembly, battery parts and 70% of non-battery parts.
5.3 Canada and Mexico: a quota that is not filling, and a wall with a door
Canada replaced the 100% surtax with a quota of 49,000 China-built EVs a year at the 6.1% most-favoured-nation tariff. Window 1 (March-August) used 15,603 of 24,500 permits, or 63.7%. The 8,897 unused permits carried over, so window 2 has 24,500 + 8,897 = 33,397. Only 328 had entered by Oct 9, leaving 33,069 of the annual 49,000 (67.5%). Tesla paused Model 3 Premium orders on Oct 12, citing an exhausted quota. Notice to Importers 1168 (Aug 29) is first-come, first-served with no per-brand limit, but section 3.4.6 lets Ottawa set aside quota for other OEMs. Global Affairs Canada is consulting companies and did not confirm a Tesla cap. From March 2027 the quota rises 6.5%, and at least 10% of imports must be at or below C$35,000, rising to 50% by 2030. China-built cars remain ineligible for the C$5,000 federal rebate.
Mexico has charged 50% on cars from non-FTA countries since Jan 1, 2026; engines under 1.0 litre are exempt. On Oct 20 the Economy Ministry told dealers the tariffs stay. The decree effective Oct 14 cuts duty on kit parts from 10% to 0%, and on Oct 16 the ministry limited it to 11 automakers with Mexican plants, leaving the 50% unchanged. Forwarder News (citing Cluster Industrial) links it to GAC's planned Q4 2026 kit assembly, which is that outlet's interpretation. Separately, Mexico seeks to cut the US tariff on its cars from 25% to 15%, effectively 10%-12%; no deal is finalized and no date is set.
5.4 Thailand, and what the material does not cover
Thailand's Finance Ministry plans to raise the excise tax on fully imported EVs from 10% (2% for qualifying vehicles) to at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027, for Cabinet submission; this is a ministry source, not a decree. On a THB 1 million car, excise rises from THB 100,000 to THB 300,000, a gap of THB 200,000. Under EV 3.5, importers must build two local cars per import in 2026 and three in 2027.
The material has no Brazil import-duty schedule, Turkey or Indonesia incentives. The only UK item is a headline, "China Tells UK to 'Think Twice' Before Following EU on EV Tariffs" (Oct 19). It has no US rate for China-built cars, only a whitepaper's 25% on non-US-assembled vehicles (date not stated).
Judgement: the common design is to tax the car and discount the kit. The EU caps hybrids, Mexico lowers kit duty, and Thailand taxes imports. Canada is the exception, a quota only 32.5% used (15,931 ÷ 49,000). These rules favour local assembly, so the plant plans in Chapter 4 matter more than tariff headlines.
6. Risks and opportunities
Chapters 2–5 covered the volumes, the shares, the plants and the rules; this chapter turns them into what changed and what it implies for each reader. It uses only facts from those chapters, judged against Oct 24, 2026, and it describes positions, not investment advice or forecasts of our own.
6.1 What changed and what it implies, by reader
| Reader | What changed | Implication | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese car makers exporting finished cars | September exports hit 1.053 million, 54.2% of them NEVs; the EU would cap hybrids at 350,000 in year one (reported); BEV duties of 7.8%–35.3% plus 10% stay | Growth is still strong, but the hybrid route, which grew from 7% of EU imports from China in 2023 to 39% in H1 2026, is the one now being capped | — |
| Car makers planning plants | Leapmotor started series production in Zaragoza on Oct 16; Szeged slipped about 12 months to Q4 2026; BYD Türkiye is suspended | Partner plants deliver earlier than greenfield builds, and a Spanish-built car avoids the 20.7% countervailing duty | — |
| Importers and dealers in Europe | Five Chinese groups took 15.7% of EU+EFTA+UK registrations, while four of them took 8.5% in the EU alone; UK Chinese brands hold 23.3% | Quote the market and the definition each time; the UK is the high-share market and Germany (6.1%) the low one | — |
| Importers in Canada and Mexico | Canada's window 2 holds 33,397 permits with 328 used at Oct 9; Mexico keeps 50% but cut kit-parts duty to 0% from Oct 14 | Canada is open and under-used, while Mexico rewards kit assembly in a Mexican plant over finished imports | — |
| Investors and analysts | Wholesale (1.666 million NEV) exceeds retail (1.084 million) by 582,000, and 96% of the gap is passenger NEV exports | Domestic weakness is being covered by exports, so export-policy dates matter for the wholesale trend | — |
| Policy watchers | Thailand proposes raising excise on imported EVs from 10% to at least 30% from Jan 1, 2027; China will cut the NEV export VAT rebate from 13% to 9% from Apr 1, 2027 | Both are announced or proposed, not in force; treat them as dated risks | — |
The month's rules reward building near the buyer: caps and taxes land on finished cars, while kit duty, partner plants and quota slack are open to anyone who assembles locally.
6.2 Risks and opportunities by market
Europe. The main risk is the hybrid cap. The 350,000 figure is a leak from a document seen by Bloomberg, the Commission text was unpublished at Oct 12, and over-quota treatment, extended-range EVs and company allocation are open. Against 2025 imports of 302,000 the cap is +15.9%, but against the 800,000 expected for 2026 it is 43.8%, so Beijing and Brussels read the same number differently. The opportunity is local content: according to East Asia Brief, Stellantis said Spanish parts exceed 40% of component value, and BYD wants more than 40,000 European staff by 2030, from just over 10,000 now. The risk to that route is execution, because Szeged has made no series car and its start moved from end-2025 to Q4 2026. Press reports add a soil-testing fine and a parliamentary committee, which are reported, not proven.
UK, Germany and Australia. Chinese brands hold 23.3% in the UK, yet a BEV-only reading is not possible from the same figure, and the UK debate on following the EU is a headline, not a measure. Germany is thin at 6.1%. Australia is the strongest emerging case: EVs were 24.2% of September sales, and AFR reports China-made cars were over four in five EVs bought since February.
Canada, Mexico, US and Thailand. Canada's quota is the clearest opportunity: only 32.5% of the 49,000 annual permits are used (15,931), though Tesla paused Model 3 Premium orders on Oct 12 and Ottawa can set quota aside for other makers. Mexico's 50% tariff was confirmed on Oct 20, while US-Mexico talks to cut the US tariff on Mexican-built cars from 25% to 15% have no date. The US offers no plant route, and the connected-vehicle rule applies from model year 2027. Thailand's 30% excise is proposed only, and EV 3.5 already requires two local cars per import in 2026 and three in 2027.
Data risk. Chery's export figures do not reconcile (70.3% against 74.6% overseas share), SAIC's and Chery's tallies are secondary, and the material has no MG export figure. For Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia the chapters hold no tariff or incentive data, so no view is offered.
6.3 Key dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect"; later ones are "Upcoming". The chapters give no dates for the next CAAM, CPCA or ACEA releases, so none are listed.
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | EU countervailing duties on China-built BEVs (7.8%–35.3% plus 10%) | In effect | Global Trade Alert |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Mexico 50% tariff on cars from non-FTA countries | In effect | Rio Times |
| Feb 11, 2026 | EU price undertaking for Volkswagen (Anhui) Cupra Tavascan in force | In effect | Global Trade Alert |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Canada quota window 2 opens (33,397 permits) | In effect | EV |
| Oct 12, 2026 | CAAM and CPCA September export data published | In effect | CAAM (via SMM); CPCA (via CnEVPost) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Mexico kit-parts duty cut to 0% for five years | In effect | Forwarder News |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Leapmotor B10 series start at Zaragoza | In effect | InsideEVs |
| Oct 22, 2026 | ACEA September registrations published | In effect | ChinaEVHome (via ACEA) |
| Nov–Dec 2026 | BYD Szeged mass production (Q4 2026; Nov or Dec per Deutsche Bank) | Upcoming | Hungarian Conservative; Eletric-vehicles.com |
| Q4 2026 | GAC kit assembly in Mexico (announced; facility purchase not complete) | Upcoming | Forwarder News |
| Dec 1, 2026 | EU hybrid quota of 350,000 starts "as soon as" this date (reported, unconfirmed) | Upcoming | Bloomberg |
| End-2026 | BYD second European plant selection (reported); Stellantis–CATL cell plant target | Upcoming | GNSGO; AutoNext |
| Jan 1, 2027 | Thailand excise rise to at least 30% (proposed) | Upcoming | Nation Thailand |
| Q1 2027 | Leapmotor B05 starts at Zaragoza | Upcoming | East Asia Brief |
| Feb 28, 2027 | Canada quota window 2 closes | Upcoming | EV |
| Mar 2027 | Canada quota rises 6.5% | Upcoming | EV |
| Apr 1, 2027 | China NEV export VAT rebate falls from 13% to 9% | Upcoming | GlobalChinaEV |
| 2027 | Geely Auto first cars in Canada | Upcoming | Geely release (GlobeNewswire) |
| 2028 | SAIC Galicia plant start; Leapmotor Opel SUV line | Upcoming | Transitions Lab; CnEVPost |
7. References
This document draws on the following 67 sources, listed in the order they are first cited.
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- China September NEV retail sales fall 16.7% as penetration hits record 67%, CPCA data shows - CnEVPost — cnevpost.com
- BYD's Global Sales Rise 17% in September as Exports Climb 154% — eletric-vehicles.com
- BYD shakes off weak start as September EV sales hit 2026 high, helped by overseas boom — thecooldown.com
- China wholesales September 2026: Market down -28%, MG, Fang Cheng Bao, Leapmotor up – Best Selling Cars Blog — bestsellingcarsblog.com
- Europe’s Auto Market Grows 10.2% in September as Chinese Brands Gain Share | ChinaEVHome — chinaevhome.com
- BEV registrations rose sharply across Europe in September - electrive.com — electrive.com
- BYD's European Share More Than Doubles as Brussels Targets Chinese Hybrids — eletric-vehicles.com
- Chinese automakers accelerate European production plan, eye deeper local industry ties - Global Times — globaltimes.cn
- UK and Germany Car Sales September 2026: Chinese Brands — goodcarbadcar.net
- BYD, Tesla and Geely lead as EVs outsell petrol cars again in Australia - The Driven — thedriven.io
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- This Chinese EV Is Now Made In Europe. More Are Coming — insideevs.com
- BYD Hungary Plant to Start Mass Production in Q4 2026, Executive VP Says - Hungarian Conservative — hungarianconservative.com
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- Stellantis pushes Leapmotor European parts past 40% in Spain — eastasiabrief.com
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- Chinese Hybrid Car Imports to EU Limited to 350,000 Per Year Under New Rules - Bloomberg — bloomberg.com
- Caps Rejected, Floors in Use: The EU, China and Trade in Cars - Global Trade Alert — globaltradealert.org
- Mexico’s 50% Car Tariff Prompts Rerouting — riotimesonline.com
- Mexico Limits Car Parts Tariff Waiver to 11 — ground.news
- Canada's Second China-Made EV Quota Window Opens With 0.5% of Permits Used — eletric-vehicles.com
- Tesla Halts Shanghai-Built Model 3 Orders in Canada Over Import Quota — eletric-vehicles.com
- Thailand plans 30% excise tax on fully imported EVs from 2027 — nationthailand.com
- 12 Listed Automakers' First Three Quarters: Overseas Sales Carry Half the Load, Annual Target Completion Rates All in Danger Zone — BigGo Finance — finance.biggo.com
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- China's September NEV retail climbs 14% as shipments outrun it by 531,000 | GlobalChinaEV — globalchinaev.com
- China’s Auto Market Sees Weak September Peak Season as NEV Exports Jump 163% | ChinaEVHome — chinaevhome.com
- NEV Sales Hit 53.6% of China's Total in First Three Quarters; Auto Exports Top 1 Million Units for Four Straight Months — BigGo Finance — finance.biggo.com
- China cuts NEV export VAT rebate to 9% as Sept shipments jump 160% | GlobalChinaEV — globalchinaev.com
- BYD's Sales Outside of China Rise 154% in September - CleanTechnica — cleantechnica.com
- New car registrations: +5.7% in September 2026 year-to-date; battery-electric 22.7% market share - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association — acea.auto
- BYD, Chery expand EU foothold as car registrations climb for eighth straight month — TradingView News — tradingview.com
- EU electric car registrations jump nearly 63% as Chinese brands gain ground | Euronews — euronews.com
- China Ships the Factory, Not Just the Car | Transitions Lab — transitionslab.org
- Chinese EV Brands in Europe: Registrations and Specs — evstats.org
- Chinese brands take 23.3% of UK car sales as Jaecoo 7 tops September — evcompared.co.uk
- EV Sales Surged In The UK This September - CleanTechnica — cleantechnica.com
- BYD and Chery Surge in UK as Chinese Car Brands Gain Ground — electriccarsreport.com
- BYD is reshaping Australia’s car market. How did it get here? — theconversation.com
- Why Chinese-made cars are dominating Australia’s electric vehicle market — afr.com
- Thailand’s EV push faces a crossroads as Japanese automakers call for policy reforms | INSIGHT | Reccessary — reccessary.com
- Chinese carmakers increasingly rely on overseas markets as September exports surge - ABC News — abcnews.com
- BYD's electric vehicle factory at the Industrial Complex in Camacari | Business | The Daily News — galvnews.com
- Nexteer Expands Brazil Footprint with New Camacari Facility Supporting BYD Production — bignewsnetwork.com
- Leapmotor B10 production moves to Spain, beyond the EU's China tariffs — autonext.co
- Geely Auto Group Mainstream Brand Officially Announces Entry into the Canadian Market — finance.yahoo.com
- BYD plans to hire 40,000 workers in Europe by 2030 — qz.com
- BYD's European Plants Are a Parts Story | GNSGO — gnsgo.com
- Geely Auto Announces Canada Entry, First Model Due in 2027 | ChinaEVHome — chinaevhome.com
- Chinese automakers accelerate push into Canada, creating new opportunities for win-win cooperation - Global Times — globaltimes.cn
- Mexico cuts duty on car-kit parts to zero for five years | Forwarder News — forwardernews.com
- US-China Investment Board Is 'Established,' Says Nothing on Car Plants — eletric-vehicles.com
- China, EU Reach Hybrid Car Trade Understanding in Beijing — ground.news
- EU Sets '350,000 Unit' Ceiling on Chinese Hybrid Vehicles: Safeguards Halving Imports Reflect European Anxiety and Ripples for Japan｜宮野宏樹 — note.com
- China-EU Hybrid Import Deal Eases Trade Tensions, Risks Remain — finance.yahoo.com
- The EU's New Chinese Hybrid Vehicle Import Quota Kicks Off at 350,000 Vehicles per Year - autoevolution — autoevolution.com
- China-EU Trade Talks: What Was Actually Agreed? — geopolitechs.org
- Buy European need not break the bank | Jacques Delors Centre — delorscentre.eu
- Tesla Suspends Canadian Model 3 Orders Over Import Allocation Limits | the deep dive — thedeepdive.ca
- Tesla Model 3 orders remain paused as Canada reviews Chinese EV import quota - Drive Tesla — driveteslacanada.ca
- Mexico Keeps 50% Chinese Car Tariff as Plant Fears Grow — riotimesonline.com
- Mexico Nears U.S. Tariff Deal on Cars, Steel, Aluminum — briefs.co
- Global Automotive Industry — intermediapartners.de