Chinese carmakers sold more cars abroad than ever, while rules moved from duties to quotas and local assembly
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, Chinese carmakers sold more cars abroad than ever, Europe counted them at very different shares depending on the definition, and the rules shifted from duties towards quotas and local assembly. Five conclusions explain the month; every item is judged against Oct 24, 2026.
Five conclusions
Exports, not the home market, carried the industry’s September
CAAM reported all-vehicle exports of 1.053 million (+61.4% YoY) and NEV exports of 571,000 (+160%), which is 54.2% of all exports; both were released on Oct 12 and reach us through media. CPCA’s NEV wholesale of 1.666 million exceeded its NEV retail of 1.084 million by 582,000, and passenger NEV exports of 558,000 are 96% of that gap. BYD group sold 180,700 vehicles abroad in September, 39.0% of its total.
In Europe the “Chinese share” is a definition, not one number
Five Chinese-owned groups registered 214,113 cars in EU+EFTA+UK in September, 15.7% of 1.363 million. BYD, Chery, SAIC and Leapmotor together took 11.7% across EU+EFTA+UK but 8.5% inside the EU alone. For August, ACEA’s five groups held 12.4% against 11.7% for Dataforce’s Chinese brands, so the two series cannot be mixed. By brand, the UK put Chinese brands at 23.3% and Germany at 6.1%.
Plants started first where a partner already had one
Leapmotor’s B10 entered series production at Stellantis’ Zaragoza plant on Oct 16, after an Oct 12 announcement. BYD’s Szeged plant, due at the end of 2025, is now promised for Q4 2026, about 12 months late, and is not yet in series. BYD’s USD 1bn Türkiye plant is suspended, and the second European site is only shortlisted, with France and Spain named and no final investment decision.
Trade policy is moving from duties to quotas and local-content rules
The EU-China understanding of Oct 9 would cap hybrid imports at 350,000 in year one (reported, start as soon as Dec 1), which is +15.9% on 2025’s 302,000 but 43.8% of the 800,000 the EU expected for 2026. Duties on China-built BEVs of 7.8%–35.3% on top of 10% remain in force. Mexico kept its 50% tariff yet cut kit-parts duty to 0% from Oct 14 for 11 automakers with Mexican plants. Canada replaced a 100% surtax with a quota of 49,000 China-built EVs a year at 6.1%.
Several load-bearing numbers are reported, not confirmed
The EU quota has no published Commission text at Oct 12, Thailand’s excise rise to at least 30% is a ministry proposal for Jan 1, 2027, and Chery’s export tally does not reconcile. Canada’s quota is a counter-example of slack: only 32.5% of the 49,000 permits are used. Most CAAM, CPCA and company figures reach us through media, so each is marked “via”.
Measures at a glance
| Measure | Figure | Period · release | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale | NEV wholesale (CPCA): 1.666 million | Sept 2026 · Oct 12 | CPCA (via CnEVPost) | Reported |
| Retail | NEV retail (CPCA): 1.084 million, down 16.7%Replaced the preliminary 1.141 million (down 12%) of Oct 10 | Sept 2026 · Oct 12 | CPCA (via CnEVPost) | Reported |
| Exports | All-vehicle exports (CAAM): 1.053 million (+61.4% YoY)Jan–Sep: 8.205 million (+65.8% YoY) | Sept 2026 · Oct 12 | CAAM (via SMM) | Reported |
| Exports | NEV exports, BEV + PHEV (CAAM): 571,000 (+160% YoY); 54.2% of exports | Sept 2026 · Oct 12 | CAAM (via CnEVPost) | Reported |
| Exports | Passenger NEV exports (CPCA): 558,000 (+163.5% YoY) | Sept 2026 · Oct 12 | CPCA (via CnEVPost) | Reported |
| Exports | BYD group NEV overseas sales: 180,700 (+153.6% YoY)Jan–Sep: 1,342,960 (+92.7% YoY) | Sept 2026 · Oct 1 | BYD (via Eletric-vehicles.com) | Reported (HKEX filing) |
| Exports | Geely Auto exports: 106,685 (+162.35% YoY) | Sept 2026 · Oct 1 | CnEVPost | Reported (company data) |
| Exports | Great Wall Motor overseas sales: 60,019 (+19.4% YoY) | Sept 2026 · Oct 1 | CnEVPost | Reported (company data) |
| Exports | Chery Automobile exports: 200,900Secondary tally; does not reconcile | Sept 2026 · by Oct 3 | BigGo Finance | Reported (secondary) |
| Registrations | Five Chinese-owned groups, EU+EFTA+UK: 214,113 = 15.7% of 1.363 million | Sept 2026 · Oct 22 | ACEA data (our sum) | Estimate |
| Registrations | UK, 15 Chinese brands: 81,776 of 350,536 = 23.3% | Sept 2026 · early Oct | SMMT (via GoodCarBadCar) | Published |
| Registrations | Germany, Chinese brands: 15,784 of 256,774 = 6.1% | Sept 2026 · Oct 5 | KBA (via GoodCarBadCar) | Published |
| Sales | Australia, EVs: 24.2% of new-vehicle sales (August record 24.8%) | Sept 2026 · Oct 6 | FCAI (via The Driven) | Published |
Exports, not the home market, carried September, and the leaders differ by whose count is used
CAAM counts all vehicles, including commercial ones. CPCA counts passenger vehicles only, and its exports include CKD kits. The two series should not be added or mixed. All figures below are September 2026 or January–September 2026 releases from Oct 1–12, so all are final as of Oct 24.
Who counts what
NEV exports (BEV + PHEV) were 571,000 (+160% YoY), 54.2% of exports, above half for a fourth straight month. Of the NEVs, 352,000 were BEVs (+130%) and 219,000 PHEVs (+220%); fuel-vehicle exports were 482,000.
January–September: exports of 8.205 million (+65.8% YoY), of which NEVs 4.006 million (+130% YoY), a 48.8% NEV share (estimate, our arithmetic).
Passenger NEV exports were 558,000 (+163.5% YoY, +7.7% MoM), 60.8% of passenger exports (estimate, our arithmetic). By powertrain: 60.5% BEV, 34.2% PHEV and 5.3% EREV.
January–September: passenger NEV exports of 3.887 million (+138.8% YoY).
Passenger NEV exports of 558,000 are 96% of that gap, so exports are what held up wholesale while domestic retail fell. CPCA’s preliminary retail figure of 1.141 million (Oct 10) was replaced by 1.084 million (Oct 12); we follow the later one.
That is CAAM’s view, not ours. It would need 10 − 8.205 = 1.795 million in Q4, about 598,000 a month (estimate, our arithmetic), against 1.053 million in September.
The material does not reconcile the growth rates. A policy note: a report says China will cut the NEV export VAT rebate from 13% to 9% from Apr 1, 2027 (announced Oct 12, not yet in effect).
| Entity | September overseas | Jan–Sep overseas | Share of own total | Basis · status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYD groupGroup, not the BYD brand | 180,700 (+153.6% YoY)4.6% below August’s record 189,466 | 1,342,960 (+92.7% YoY)Above BYD’s 2025 total of about 1.05 million | 39.0% of 463,561 (Sept); 42.9% of 3,131,576 (Jan–Sep) | BYD, Oct 1 (via Eletric-vehicles.com) Reported (HKEX filing) |
| Geely Auto | 106,685 (+162.35% YoY, −3.10% MoM)Ended an eight-month record streak | 797,700 (+169% YoY) | 36.5% of 292,168 (Sept); 35.7% of 2.2355 million (Jan–Sep) | CnEVPost, Oct 1; BigGo Finance Reported (company data) |
| Great Wall Motor | 60,019 (+19.4% YoY)4.0% below August’s record 62,517 | 475,977 (+42.43% YoY) | 52.2% of 114,944 (Sept) | CnEVPost, Oct 1 Reported (company data) |
| Chery AutomobileListed entity | 200,900 | 1.55 million (+65.6% YoY) | 72.6% of 276,900 (Sept) | BigGo Finance, by Oct 3 Reported (secondary tally)The tally gives a 70.3% overseas share, but 1.55 ÷ 2.0769 million = 74.6%: indicative only |
| SAIC Motor group | 150,000 (+49.1% YoY) | 1.166 million (+52.4% YoY) | 37.1% of 3.147 million total | BigGo Finance, by Oct 3 Reported (secondary tally)No MG-brand export figure in the material |
| Leapmotor | About 27,000 | Not given | 25.6% of 105,656 deliveries (Sept) | CarNewsChina, Oct 1 Reported (company statement via media) |
Top five passenger NEV exporters, September 2026
In Europe the Chinese share is a definition, not one number
Module 2 counted the cars that left China; this module counts the ones registered at the other end. Shipments and registrations are counted at different points, and each series below covers one region. All figures are September 2026 registrations unless a period is stated.
Chinese share of new-car registrations by definition, September 2026
ACEA data via electrive and ChinaEVHome, released Oct 22. Geely Group includes Volvo and Polestar.
The gap comes largely from the UK and EFTA markets (module 4).
How the numbers are built
| Group (ACEA) | Registrations, Sept | YoY | Share | Jan–Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geely Group (incl. Volvo, Polestar) | 54,778 | +33.3% | about 4.0% | 343,875 (+14.5%) |
| Chery group (Chery, Jaecoo, Jetour, Omoda) | 52,801 | +185.5% | about 3.9% | 260,650 (+255.9%) |
| BYD group | 49,953 | +98.7% | about 3.7% | 283,997 (+134.6%) |
| SAIC (MG) | 41,987 | +23.7% | about 3.1% | 272,251 (+20.3%) |
| Leapmotor | 14,594 | +323.9% | about 1.1% | 87,922 (+424.2%) |
| Five-group sum | 214,113 | — | 15.7% Estimate | — |
Volvo, Polestar, Lotus and smart sit inside Geely Group, and Leapmotor sells through a Stellantis-controlled joint venture. Within ACEA’s EU-only view, the five groups’ combined share rose from 6.6% to 10.8% in August (data released Sep 24).
Counts brands rather than owners, so the series is not comparable with ACEA’s. We follow ACEA for group comparisons and Dataforce for “Chinese brands”.
| Group | Jan–Sep 2026, EU share | Year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| BYD | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Chery | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| SAIC | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Geely Group | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Volkswagen Group (benchmark) | 26.2% | 27.5% |
Share is highest in the UK and Australia and low in Germany, and outside them the evidence is thin
Brand-level registration data show how differently Chinese brands sit in each national market. Each figure below names its measure (registrations or sales), its period and its source.
Pick a market
United Kingdom: Chinese brands took 23.3% of September registrations
SMMT figures reported in early October put Chinese brands (15 brands, all powertrains) at 81,776 of 350,536 registrations in September, 23.3%, against 38,934 and about 12.4% a year earlier. January–September share was 17.5%.
| UK, Sept 2026 | Registrations | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Volkswagen (benchmark) | 25,972 | 7.4% |
| BYD | 20,140 | 5.7% |
| MG | 18,026 | 5.1% |
| Jaecoo | 15,057 | 4.3% |
| Omoda | 7,241 | 2.1% |
BYD UK’s own count is 20,129; we use SMMT’s. According to Electric Cars Report, Chery’s four UK brands totalled 32,823 (9.36%) in September and 124,365 (7.15%) year to date. A BEV-only reading is not possible: the 81,776 covers all fuels, while the UK BEV share was 28.3% (99,199 cars). Published
Germany: the low-share market at 6.1%
KBA figures (Oct 5) count Chinese brands at 15,784 of 256,774 registrations in September, 6.1%, with January–September at 4.5%. BYD registered 6,040 (2.4%), and the German BEV share was 34.5%. Published
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese brands, all fuels, Germany | 6.1% (15,784 of 256,774) | KBA, Sept 2026, published |
| Chinese brands, BEV registrations, eight countries | 10.1% Jan–Sep (7.0% a year earlier); 11.8% in Sept | evstats.org, reported |
| Countries in the eight-country set | CH, CZ, DE, ES, FI, IE, NL, SE | UK, France, Italy and Norway excluded |
Australia: EVs were 24.2% of September sales
FCAI figures (Oct 6) show EVs at 24.2% of September sales (August record 24.8%) and BEVs at 18.9% year to date (8.1% in 2025). The total market grew under 1%. Electric Vehicle Council totals put EVs at 26,087 in September, above petrol (26,018). Published
| Item | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Eight Chinese-brand models in the top ten | 11,592 sold, about 44% of 26,087 | Estimate: a rough floor, mixes two sources |
| BYD, January–August | More than 68,000 cars, second only to Toyota | The Conversation, reported |
| China-made share of EVs bought since February | Over four in five | AFR, reported |
Elsewhere: thin evidence
Outside Europe and Australia the material is thin. Nothing quantifies Mexico, Indonesia or Turkey.
| Market | What the material says | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| ASEAN-6 | About 15.7% for Chinese OEMs in H1 2026 | Transitions Lab, Oct 8 · reported |
| Brazil | 25.2% for electrified vehicles in 2026: not a Chinese share, no month given | Transitions Lab · reported |
| Thailand | Chinese-brand share charted to January–July 2026, no number in the text | Reported |
| United States | Share effectively zero because hefty tariffs bar Chinese EVs; no US rate in the material | Press descriptions |
Plants started first where a partner already had one, and greenfield builds are slipping
Module 4 covered market share by market; this module covers the supply behind it, meaning where Chinese brands build, or plan to build, outside China. The month produced one start, in Spain, and one slip, in Hungary.
Plants and partnerships at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Szeged, Hungary | About EUR 4bn; 150,000 cars a year initially, 300,000 long term | Mass production “in Q4 2026” (Oct 12) | AnnouncedTrial production since Jan, not yet in series | Moneybuzz; Hungarian Conservative (Bloomberg TV) |
| BYD further European plants | France and Spain shortlisted; no final investment decision | Oct 12 | Under consideration | Hungarian Conservative |
| BYD Camaçari, Brazil | 150,000 a year, scalable to 300,000 | Cars on line by Feb 3; supplier plant opened Oct 2026 | Operating (reported) | Transitions Lab; Reuters photo; Nexteer |
| BYD Türkiye | USD 1bn plant | Suspended; date not stated | On hold | Hungarian Conservative |
| Leapmotor B10, Zaragoza, Spain | Series production; B05 allocated Oct 19 | Oct 12 announced; Oct 16 series start | In production | CnEVPost; InsideEVs |
| Leapmotor Mallén battery workshop | EUR 25m; about 60,000 battery units a year | Date not stated | Reported operating | AutoNext |
| Chery–Ebro, Barcelona | About EUR 150m conversion; Ebro 60%, Chery 40% | Date not stated | Operating (reported) | Transitions Lab |
| SAIC Galicia, Spain | First SAIC plant in Europe | Start slated 2028 | Under construction (reported) | Transitions Lab |
| Xpeng G9L, Graz, Austria | Fourth Xpeng model built by Magna in Europe | Oct 7 trial run | Trial production | Xpeng (via Global Times) |
| Geely Auto, Canada | Local team and dealer network; no plant | Oct 9; first cars 2027 | Announced | Geely release (GlobeNewswire) |
Three routes in detail
A Deutsche Bank note on BYD’s investor call narrows this to November or December (reported). The plant was first expected to build the Dolphin Surf by the end of 2025, so the start is about 12 months late. The EUR 4bn figure is Reuters’s valuation relayed by Moneybuzz.
France and Spain are named as candidates for a second European plant, but “no final investment decisions have been announced”; a second plant is due to be selected by end-2026 (GNSGO, reported). BYD wants more than 40,000 European staff by 2030, against just over 10,000 now. The USD 1bn Türkiye plant was suspended earlier this year, with Hungary prioritised.
One conflict: Transitions Lab (Oct 8) says Szeged reaches full series output in Q2 2026 at about 200,000 cars a year. We follow BYD’s Q4 timing and the 150,000 initial capacity, because Q2 has passed without a series start. Press-reported frictions (a HUF 10m soil-testing fine, a parliamentary committee, two construction deaths) are reported, not proven.
The B10 start came 16 days after the Q3 2026 target set in August 2025. Pre-series output ran at one to six cars a day with 400 staff hired and up to 500 more planned (AutoNext); annual capacity is undisclosed. The B05 hatchback was allocated to Zaragoza on Oct 19 for a Q1 2027 start; an Opel C-segment SUV line is planned for 2028.
The EUR 25m Mallén battery workshop employs 90 people and is sized for 60,000 units, with room for 100,000. A Stellantis–CATL 50 GWh LFP cell plant (up to EUR 4.1bn) is targeted for end-2026. Stellantis paid EUR 1.5bn in October 2023 for about 20% of Leapmotor and holds 51% of Leapmotor International.
According to East Asia Brief, Stellantis said on Oct 20 that Spanish parts exceed 40% of component value; AutoNext says a Zaragoza car avoids the 20.7% countervailing duty, which on top of the 10% duty is 10% + 20.7% = 30.7% on a China-built B10.
Chery converted Nissan’s Barcelona plant with Ebro for about EUR 150m (Ebro 60%, Chery 40%; operating, reported).
Xpeng finished a first G9L trial run at Magna Graz on Oct 7. Changan, Chery and GAC are “expanding” European production, but the material gives no figures.
SAIC’s Galicia plant, its first in Europe, is slated to start in 2028 (under construction, reported).
Geely Auto’s Oct 9 release says a Canadian team is in place and a retail and service network is being built for first sales in 2027; no plant, and model, price and locations are not disclosed. In Mexico, GAC announced SKD assembly for Q4 2026, though its facility purchase was not complete (Forwarder News, citing Cluster Industrial).
The US has no plant route: the connected-vehicle rule bars Chinese-linked makers from selling US-built cars from model year 2027, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said “not cars” in April.
Partner-plant conversions (Zaragoza, Barcelona, Graz) start years earlier than greenfield builds like Szeged (planned end-2025, now Q4 2026) and Galicia (2028). BYD’s European plan is still a plan: Szeged is built and tested but has not made a series car.
Taxes and quotas now land on the finished car, while kit duty, partner plants and quota slack favour local assembly
Module 5 showed carmakers moving production abroad; this module explains the trade rules that push them to do so. All rates come from press reports and trade-policy analysts, because the material holds no official EU, Mexican or Thai legal text.
Tracker: instrument, rate, date, status
| Country / bloc | Instrument and key figure | Date | Status (Oct 24, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Safeguard quota on hybrids and plug-in hybrids: 350,000 in year 1, +6% a year, four years | Understanding Oct 9; start “as soon as” Dec 1, 2026 | ReportedCommission text unpublished at Oct 12 | Bloomberg; EV |
| EU | Countervailing duty on China-built BEVs: 7.8%–35.3% on top of 10%; hybrids pay 10% only | Since Oct 30, 2024 | In force | Global Trade Alert |
| EU | Price undertaking, Volkswagen (Anhui) Cupra Tavascan: minimum price, volume limit, investment milestones | Accepted Feb 9, 2026; in force Feb 11 | In forceOnly one so far | Global Trade Alert |
| Canada | 49,000 permits a year at 6.1% (was a 100% surtax); window 2 holds 33,397 | Window 2: Sep 1, 2026 to Feb 28, 2027 | Quota window open | EV |
| Mexico | 50% on cars from countries without a trade agreement | Since Jan 1, 2026 | In force | Rio Times |
| Mexico | Assembly-kit parts duty cut from 10% to 0% for five years, 11 automakers with Mexican plants | Effective Oct 14, 2026 | In force | Forwarder News; Reuters via Ground News |
| Thailand | Excise on fully imported EVs from 10% to at least 30% | Proposed for Jan 1, 2027 | ProposedMinistry source, not a decree | Nation Thailand |
EU hybrid cap against its baselines
Country by country
EU: a hybrid quota instead of a hybrid duty
The second China–EU trade consultation (Beijing, Oct 8–9) ended with an understanding on hybrids. A document seen by Bloomberg sets a cap of 350,000 in the first year, rising 6% a year for four years, from as soon as Dec 1 (reported; Commission text unpublished at Oct 12). The cap would formally cover hybrid imports from all countries. China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed on Oct 12 an “upward arrangement” built on 2025, when the EU imported 302,000 Chinese hybrids (107,000 in 2024).
BEV duties did not change: company duties run from Tesla China 7.8% to SAIC 35.3% on top of 10% (BYD 17.0%, Geely 18.8%), and Volkswagen (Anhui) is the only price-undertaking user. Still open: over-quota treatment, extended-range EVs and company allocation. Two conflicts: Bloomberg earlier cited about 400,000 a year and one source writes “from 2027”; we follow the 350,000 in the document and Dec 1, both unconfirmed. On subsidies, the Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act (proposed March 2026, awaiting trilogue) would tie public spending on EVs to Union-origin assembly, battery parts and 70% of non-battery parts.
| Share of units the EU imported from China | 2023 | 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery-electric | 69% | 45% | n/a |
| Hybrids (plug-in and conventional) | 7% | 31% | 39% |
Canada: a quota that is not filling
Canada replaced the 100% surtax with a quota of 49,000 China-built EVs a year at the 6.1% most-favoured-nation tariff. Window 1 (March–August) used 15,603 of 24,500 permits, or 63.7%; the 8,897 unused permits carried over, so window 2 has 24,500 + 8,897 = 33,397.
Notice to Importers 1168 (Aug 29) is first-come, first-served with no per-brand limit, but section 3.4.6 lets Ottawa set aside quota for other makers. Global Affairs Canada is consulting companies and did not confirm a Tesla cap. China-built cars remain ineligible for the C$5,000 federal rebate. Quota window open
Mexico: a wall with a door
Mexico has charged 50% on cars from non-FTA countries since Jan 1, 2026 (engines under 1.0 litre exempt), and on Oct 20 the Economy Ministry told dealers the tariffs stay. The decree effective Oct 14 cuts duty on assembly-kit parts from 10% to 0% for five years; on Oct 16 the ministry limited it to 11 automakers with Mexican plants, leaving the 50% unchanged. In force
Thailand: excise proposed to triple
Thailand’s Finance Ministry plans to raise the excise tax on fully imported EVs from 10% (2% for qualifying vehicles) to at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027, for Cabinet submission; this is a ministry source, not a decree. Proposed
What the material does not cover
The material has no Brazil import-duty schedule and no Turkey or Indonesia incentives, so no view is offered. The only UK item is a headline, “China Tells UK to Think Twice Before Following EU on EV Tariffs” (Oct 19). It has no US rate for China-built cars, only a whitepaper’s 25% on non-US-assembled vehicles (date not stated).
Judgement: the common design is to tax the car and discount the kit. The EU caps hybrids, Mexico lowers kit duty and Thailand taxes imports. Canada is the exception, a quota only 32.5% used. These rules favour local assembly, so the plant plans in module 5 matter more than tariff headlines.
The rules reward building near the buyer, and several load-bearing numbers are still only reported
This module uses only facts from the modules above, judged against Oct 24, 2026. It describes positions, not investment advice or forecasts of our own.
What changed and what it implies, by reader
Chinese carmakers exporting finished cars
September exports hit 1.053 million (CAAM, reported), 54.2% of them NEVs. The EU would cap hybrids at 350,000 in year one (reported), and BEV duties of 7.8%–35.3% plus 10% stay (in force).
Growth is still strong, but the hybrid route, which grew from 7% of EU imports from China in 2023 to 39% in H1 2026, is the one now being capped.
Carmakers planning plants
Leapmotor started series production in Zaragoza on Oct 16; Szeged slipped about 12 months to Q4 2026; BYD Türkiye is suspended.
Partner plants deliver earlier than greenfield builds, and a Spanish-built car avoids the 20.7% countervailing duty.
Importers and dealers in Europe
Five Chinese groups took 15.7% of EU+EFTA+UK registrations while four of them took 8.5% in the EU alone (both estimates). UK Chinese brands hold 23.3% (SMMT, published).
Quote the market and the definition each time. The UK is the high-share market and Germany (6.1%, KBA) the low one.
Importers in Canada and Mexico
Canada’s window 2 holds 33,397 permits with 328 entered at Oct 9. Mexico keeps 50% but cut kit-parts duty to 0% from Oct 14.
Canada is open and under-used, while Mexico rewards kit assembly in a Mexican plant over finished imports.
Investors and analysts
CPCA’s NEV wholesale (1.666 million) exceeds retail (1.084 million) by 582,000, and 96% of the gap is passenger NEV exports (558,000). This page is not investment advice.
Domestic weakness is being covered by exports, so export-policy dates matter for the wholesale trend.
Policy watchers
Thailand proposes raising excise on imported EVs from 10% to at least 30% from Jan 1, 2027. China will cut the NEV export VAT rebate from 13% to 9% from Apr 1, 2027 (announced Oct 12).
Both are announced or proposed, not in effect; treat them as dated risks.
Risks and opportunities by market
The hybrid cap of 350,000 is a leak from a document seen by Bloomberg, the Commission text was unpublished at Oct 12, and over-quota treatment, extended-range EVs and company allocation are open. Szeged has made no series car and its start moved from end-2025 to Q4 2026. Press-reported frictions (a soil-testing fine, a parliamentary committee) are reported, not proven.
Local content: according to East Asia Brief, Stellantis said Spanish parts exceed 40% of component value, and BYD wants more than 40,000 European staff by 2030, from just over 10,000 now.
Chinese brands hold 23.3% in the UK (SMMT, all powertrains), yet a BEV-only reading is not possible from the same figure, and the UK debate on following the EU is a headline, not a measure. Germany is thin at 6.1% (KBA).
Australia is the strongest emerging case: EVs were 24.2% of September sales (FCAI), and AFR reports China-made cars were over four in five EVs bought since February.
Mexico’s 50% tariff was confirmed on Oct 20, and US–Mexico talks to cut the US tariff on Mexican-built cars from 25% to 15% have no date. The US offers no plant route, and its connected-vehicle rule applies from model year 2027. Thailand’s 30% excise is proposed only.
Canada’s quota is the clearest opening: only 32.5% of the 49,000 annual permits are used (15,931), though Tesla paused Model 3 Premium orders on Oct 12 and Ottawa can set quota aside for other makers.
Chery’s export figures do not reconcile (70.3% against 74.6% overseas share), SAIC’s and Chery’s tallies are secondary, and the material has no MG export figure.
For Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia the material holds no tariff or incentive data, so no view is offered. Treat Chery’s numbers as indicative until its own release.
Caps and taxes land on finished cars, while kit duty, partner plants and quota slack are open to anyone who assembles locally. This is a description of positions, not investment advice.
Count only in-effect rules as facts, and treat the reported dates as dated risks
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked “In effect”; later ones are “Upcoming”. The material gives no dates for the next CAAM, CPCA or ACEA releases, so none are listed.
Key dates and their state
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | EU countervailing duties on China-built BEVs (7.8%–35.3% plus 10%) | In effect | Global Trade Alert |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Mexico 50% tariff on cars from non-FTA countries | In effect | Rio Times |
| Feb 11, 2026 | EU price undertaking for Volkswagen (Anhui) Cupra Tavascan in force | In effect | Global Trade Alert |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Canada quota window 2 opens (33,397 permits) | In effect | EV |
| Oct 12, 2026 | CAAM and CPCA September export data published | In effect | CAAM (via SMM); CPCA (via CnEVPost) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Mexico kit-parts duty cut to 0% for five years | In effect | Forwarder News |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Leapmotor B10 series start at Zaragoza | In effect | InsideEVs |
| Oct 22, 2026 | ACEA September registrations published | In effect | ChinaEVHome (via ACEA) |
| Nov–Dec 2026 | BYD Szeged mass production (Q4 2026; November or December per Deutsche Bank) | Upcoming | Hungarian Conservative; Eletric-vehicles.com |
| Q4 2026 | GAC kit assembly in Mexico (announced; facility purchase not complete) | Upcoming | Forwarder News |
| Dec 1, 2026 | EU hybrid quota of 350,000 starts “as soon as” this date (reported, unconfirmed) | Upcoming | Bloomberg |
| End-2026 | BYD second European plant selection (reported); Stellantis–CATL cell plant target | Upcoming | GNSGO; AutoNext |
| Jan 1, 2027 | Thailand excise rise to at least 30% (proposed) | Upcoming | Nation Thailand |
| Q1 2027 | Leapmotor B05 starts at Zaragoza | Upcoming | East Asia Brief |
| Feb 28, 2027 | Canada quota window 2 closes | Upcoming | EV |
| Mar 2027 | Canada quota rises 6.5% | Upcoming | EV |
| Apr 1, 2027 | China NEV export VAT rebate falls from 13% to 9% (announced Oct 12, reported) | Upcoming | GlobalChinaEV |
| 2027 | Geely Auto first cars in Canada | Upcoming | Geely release (GlobeNewswire) |
| 2028 | SAIC Galicia plant start; Leapmotor Opel SUV line | Upcoming | Transitions Lab; CnEVPost |