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[スライド] 世界貿易と関税 · 対象期間 2026-09-24 – 2026-10-2314 枚 · English

Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief · Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026

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元のプロンプト
Write the "Global Trade and Tariffs" hot-topic report covering 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-23. Unit of coverage: country or region by product category — the month's tariff changes, trade-agreement progress and trade-remedy investigations, with a rate comparison for key categories and supply-chain shift data. Sections: 1. Key points of the month 2. Tariff changes at a glance 3. Trade agreements and negotiations 4. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties 5. Supply-chain shift data 6. What companies should do. Length: 12–14 slides. Key sources: WTO, national customs and commerce bodies, official gazettes, trade databases, think-tank reports. Cite every key number; leave out anything without a reliable source. Answer in English.

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全 14枚のスライド

「Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief · Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026」の表紙
  1. スライド 1

    Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief|Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026

    発表者ノート

    Welcome to the Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief from Divrite Research, covering September 24 to October 23, 2026. This issue asks which tariff rules now apply to your imports, which refunds and cuts are real, and what to do next.

    スライドのテキスト

    Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief

    Divrite Research · Hot Topics

    Issue for Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026

    PUBLISHED BY

    Divrite Research

    DATE

    Oct 2026

  2. スライド 2

    Contents

    発表者ノート

    The brief runs in five parts: an overview, US tariffs and the refund process, China and the agreements, remedies and trade data, and the actions to take before the November dates. First, the overview.

    スライドのテキスト

    Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief

    5 Chapters

    / 14

    Overview

    Tariffs now rest on Section 232 and 301

    US tariffs

    Rates by category and the refund process

    China and agreements

    Announced cuts, a longer truce, slow deals

    Remedies and data

    Solar, amines, WTO and August trade

    Action

    What to do before the November dates

  3. スライド 3

    Overview · Takeaways|Plan on 232 and 301 rates, and claim refunds

    発表者ノート

    The takeaway for the month is to plan on Section 232 and 301 rates, and to claim refunds. The Supreme Court held on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs, and Section 122 expired on July 24. Section 301 tiers of 10% and 12.5% now cover about 60 economies, while Section 232 sets product rates, such as 50% on steel and aluminum. CAPE refunds accepted by October 2 were $136.6 billion, with $126.0 billion sent. The summit cuts on about $30 billion each way are recommended, not implemented. So map each import to its rate and file for refunds. Next, the US rate map.

    スライドのテキスト

    Overview · Takeaways

    Plan on 232 and 301 rates, and claim refunds

    Source: Argents; WilmerHale; StartBusinessByState; White House; WTO

    What a company pays now depends on product and origin; what it can reclaim depends on filing

    Refunds are flowing; $1.1B is on hold for missing bank details

    CAPE refunds accepted by Oct 2

    $126.0B of it already sent

    $136.6 B

    Legal base

    IEEPA: the Supreme Court held on Feb 20, 2026 that it does not allow tariffs

    Section 122 expired on Jul 24

    Section 301 tiers of 10% and 12.5% cover about 60 economies

    Product rates

    Section 232 metals: 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on non-U.S. content

    Pharmaceuticals: 100% general, 15% for four partners, 0% for the UK

    Deals and outlook

    US–China summit: cuts on about $30B each way recommended, not implemented

    Agreements moved slowly

    WTO raised its 2026 merchandise growth forecast to 3.9%

    Next step

    Map each import to its 232 or 301 rate

    File for IEEPA refunds

    Treat summit cuts as pending

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① The Supreme Court held on Feb 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs; Section 122 expired on Jul 24; Section 301 tiers of 10% and 12.5% cover about 60 economies —— The IEEPA Tariff Refund Guide: How to File Your CAPE Declaration and Get Your Money Back - Great Lakes Customs Law · greatlakescustomslaw.com · https://greatlakescustomslaw.com/ieepa-tariff-refunds;Section 301 Tariffs 2026: Rates and Deadlines | Argents · argents.com · https://argents.com/section-301-tariffs-2026-guide ② Section 232 carries the product rates: 50% on steel and aluminum, and 100% general, 15% for four partners and 0% for the UK on pharmaceuticals —— Section 232 Tariffs in 2026: Rates and Scope | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/section-232;Section 232 Pharmaceutical Tariffs Are Now in Effect Its Not Too Late to Consider Duty Mitigation Strategies · wilmerhale.com · https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20261015-section-… ③ CAPE refunds accepted by Oct 2 were $136.6B, of which $126.0B was sent; $1.1B is on hold for missing bank details —— Tariff Refunds and the New Tariffs: What Small Importers in Each State Face (2026) - StartBusinessByState.com · startbusinessbystate.com · https://startbusinessbystate.com/tariff-refunds-by-state;Getting Duties Back: Where Recovery Stands Under IEEPA, Section 122, and Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs - Troutman Pepper Locke · troutman.com · https://www.troutman.com/insights/getting-duties-back-where-recovery-s… ④ US-China summit: cuts on about $30B each way recommended, not implemented —— Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Advances a Fair and Reciprocal Relationship with China While Hosting Historic State Visit – The White House · whitehouse.gov · https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-do… US agree tariff cuts on $30 billion worth of imports, with 90% of products to see MFN rates - Global Times · globaltimes.cn · https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371455.shtml;China announces 10 outcomes from latest trade talks with US, including tariff cuts, AI dialogue - Global Times · globaltimes.cn · https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371470.shtml ⑤ Agreements moved slowly: the only dated formal act was USTR's Oct 2 consultation on the 2027 USMCA review —— USTR Seeks Public Comment on the 2027 Joint Review of USMCA | United States Trade Representative · ustr.gov · https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026… Seeks Feedback on 2027 USMCA Joint Review · ghy.com · https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/2027-usmca-joint-review ⑥ The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise growth forecast to 3.9% —— WTO | 2026 News items - AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven · wto.org · https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/stat_08oct26_510_e.htm;U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · bea.gov · https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-service…
  4. スライド 4

    US · Rate map|Section 232 and 301 now carry the US tariff wall

    発表者ノート

    The US tariff wall now rests on Section 301 by country and Section 232 by product, because IEEPA is terminated and Section 122 has expired. Most goods face a Section 301 tier of 10% or 12.5%, in effect since July 24, with two CIT suits pending. China's legacy Lists 1 to 3 carry 25% plus 12.5%, which is 37.5%. Steel and aluminum are at 50% under Annex I-A and 25% under Annex I-B, and the polysilicon measure is scheduled for December 4. Penn Wharton puts the August effective rate at 7.1% overall and 24.3% for China, so check each product's layers before pricing. Pharmaceuticals come next.

    スライドのテキスト

    US · Rate map

    Section 232 and 301 now carry the US tariff wall

    Source: Airlift USA; Argents; Diaz Trade Law; Penn Wharton Budget Model

    IEEPA terminated, Section 122 expired: the US wall now rests on Section 301 by country and Section 232 by product.

    Category Measure Rate Status

    Most goods, ~60 economies

    Section 301 · by country

    USTR forced-labor action

    10% tier (incl. Canada, Mexico, India, UK)

    12.5% tier (incl. China, Vietnam)

    In effect · Jul 24

    Two CIT suits pending

    China, legacy Lists 1–3

    Section 301 · by country

    USTR legacy lists

    25% + 12.5% = 37.5%

    In effect

    Steel, aluminum, copper, derivatives

    Section 232 · by product

    Proclamation 11021

    50% Annex I-A · 25% Annex I-B

    15% cap

    In effect

    Canada / Mexico USMCA metals

    Section 232 · by product

    Proclamation 11032

    25% on non-U.S. content

    15% floor

    In effect

    U.S.-content rule Oct 14

    Patented pharmaceuticals

    Section 232 · by product

    Proclamation 11020

    100% general · UK 0%

    15% EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland

    In effect

    Vehicles, trucks, buses

    Section 232 · by product

    25% / 25% / 10%

    In effect

    Polysilicon

    Section 232 · by product

    Minimum price plus 15%

    Scheduled · Dec 4

    Canadian goods

    Section 338 · by country

    President

    Additional 50% , stacks on 232

    In effect

    Effective rate (Penn Wharton, Aug 2026)

    7.1 %

    overall

    24.3 %

    for China

    What it means

    Stacked measures make the statutory rate differ from the effective rate, so a product's cost depends on which layers apply.

    Next step

    Check each product against Section 232 and 301 layers and the exclusion list before pricing.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① Section 301 action applies from Jul 24: 10% tier and 12.5% tier for about 60 economies, with two CIT suits pending —— Section 301 Tariffs 2026: Rates and Deadlines | Argents · argents.com · https://argents.com/section-301-tariffs-2026-guide ② China legacy Lists 1-3: 25% + 12.5% = 37.5% —— Same as ① ③ Steel and aluminum: 50% Annex I-A, 25% Annex I-B, 15% cap —— Section 232 Tariffs in 2026: Rates and Scope | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/section-232 ④ Canada and Mexico USMCA metals: 25% on non-U.S. content with a 15% floor; U.S.-content rule took effect Oct 14 —— Commerce Defines “U.S. Content” for USMCA Steel and Aluminum Articles Under Proclamation 11032  - Customs & International Trade Law Firm · diaztradelaw.com · https://diaztradelaw.com/usmca-us-content-section-232 ⑤ Patented pharmaceuticals under Proclamation 11020: 100% general, 15% for EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland, UK 0% —— Section 232 Pharmaceutical Tariffs Are Now in Effect Its Not Too Late to Consider Duty Mitigation Strategies · wilmerhale.com · https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20261015-section-… ⑥ Effective tariff rate 7.1% overall and 24.3% for China (Penn Wharton, Aug 2026) —— Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated October 14, 2026) | Penn Wharton Budget Model · budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu · https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-10-14-effective-tariff-ra…
  5. スライド 5

    US · Pharma|Pharma tariff: 100% general, 15% for four partners

    発表者ノート

    Pharmaceutical tariffs show how much origin matters. Under Section 232, patented pharmaceuticals under Proclamation 11020 face a 100% general rate, while the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland pay 15% and the UK pays 0%, according to WilmerHale. Listed firms started on July 31, and the final phase began on September 29 for all other firms. BIS guidance of September 21 adds 0% for specialty drugs, effective September 29. The 85-point gap between the general rate and the 15% partner rate decides where drug supply is sourced, so confirm origin and the pricing-agreement route before shipping. Next, refunds.

    スライドのテキスト

    US · Pharma

    Pharma tariff: 100% general, 15% for four partners

    Source: WilmerHale; GHY International; Arnall Golden Gregory

    Section 232 pharmaceutical tariff, % by origin

    Read: the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland pay 15% against the 100% general rate; the UK pays 0%

    What it means: the 85-point gap between the general rate and the 15% partner rate decides where drug supply is sourced

    Gap: general rate vs 15% partner rate

    85 points

    Phase-in dates

    Jul 31: listed firms start

    Sep 29: final phase begins for all other firms

    Sep 21: BIS guidance adds 0% for specialty drugs, effective Sep 29

    Patented pharmaceuticals fall under Proclamation 11020

    Next step

    Confirm origin and the pricing-agreement route for each patented product before shipping.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① Section 232 pharmaceutical tariff: 100% general rate; 15% for the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland —— Section 232 Pharmaceutical Tariffs Are Now in Effect Its Not Too Late to Consider Duty Mitigation Strategies · wilmerhale.com · https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20261015-section-… Section 232 Presidential Proclamations Dramatically Restructure Tariffs On Metals And Add New Tariffs On Pharmaceuticals · legal500.com · https://www.legal500.com/intelligence/global/international-law/new-sec… ② The UK pays 0% additional duty on patented pharmaceuticals —— Section 232 Pharmaceutical Tariffs Are Now in Effect Its Not Too Late to Consider Duty Mitigation Strategies · wilmerhale.com · https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20261015-section-… Imposes 100% Section 232 Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals · ghy.com · https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/us-imposes-100-section-232-tariff… ③ Final phase begins Sep 29, 2026 for other firms; listed firms started Jul 31 —— Same as ② ④ BIS guidance of Sep 21 adds 0% for specialty drugs, effective Sep 29 —— Pharmaceutical Section 232 Tariffs: U.S. Department of Commerce Clarifies Specialty Drug Exemptions Before September 29 Deadline | Arnall Golden Gregory LLP - JDSupra · jdsupra.com · https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/pharmaceutical-section-232-tariffs-u… Imposes 100% Section 232 Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals · ghy.com · https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/us-imposes-100-section-232-tariff… ⑤ Patented pharmaceuticals fall under Proclamation 11020 —— U.S. Imposes 100% Section 232 Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals · ghy.com · https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/us-imposes-100-section-232-tariff… ⑥ The gap between the 100% general rate and the 15% partner rate is 85 points —— Same as ①
  6. スライド 6

    US · Refunds|Check bank details: $1.1B of refunds is on hold

    発表者ノート

    CBP refunds IEEPA duties through its CAPE system, and the money is moving. About $166 billion of IEEPA duties was paid by 330,000 importers. By October 2, $136.6 billion was accepted and $126.0 billion was sent, which is 92%. But 20,362 refunds worth $1.1 billion are on hold for missing bank details. Phase 3 opened on October 6, with 477 declarations covering 425,517 entries by noon. On October 8 a class was certified in Freestyle World, but certification is not a refund order. So update bank details with CBP and file declarations for remaining entries. Now, the China summit.

    スライドのテキスト

    US · Refunds

    Check bank details: $1.1B of refunds is on hold

    Source: StartBusinessByState (CBP court filings); Troutman Pepper Locke; Newsweek

    IEEPA duties paid, about

    $166 billion

    by 330,000 importers

    On hold, missing bank details

    20,362 refunds

    worth $1.1 billion

    Refund pipeline

    CAPE: CBP refunds IEEPA duties through its CAPE system

    Phase 3 opened Oct 6: 477 declarations covering 425,517 entries by noon

    Court ruling

    Oct 8: a class was certified in Freestyle World ; certification is not a refund order

    Budget impact, FY2026

    Refunds about $145B

    Net tariff income about $173B, down 11%

    CAPE refunds at Oct 2, $B

    Read: $126.0B of $136.6B accepted (92%) was sent

    What it means

    The money is moving, but unfinished bank details and unliquidated entries leave some refunds outstanding.

    Next step

    Update bank details with CBP and file declarations for remaining entries.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① About $166 billion of IEEPA duties was paid by 330,000 importers —— The IEEPA Tariff Refund Guide: How to File Your CAPE Declaration and Get Your Money Back - Great Lakes Customs Law · greatlakescustomslaw.com · https://greatlakescustomslaw.com/ieepa-tariff-refunds ② By Oct 2, $136.6B accepted and $126.0B sent (92%) through CAPE —— Tariff Refunds and the New Tariffs: What Small Importers in Each State Face (2026) - StartBusinessByState.com · startbusinessbystate.com · https://startbusinessbystate.com/tariff-refunds-by-state ③ 20,362 refunds worth $1.1 billion on hold for missing bank details —— Same as ② ④ CAPE Phase 3 opened Oct 6: 477 declarations covering 425,517 entries by noon —— Same as ② ⑤ On Oct 8 a class was certified in Freestyle World; certification is not a refund order —— Getting Duties Back: Where Recovery Stands Under IEEPA, Section 122, and Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs - Troutman Pepper Locke · troutman.com · https://www.troutman.com/insights/getting-duties-back-where-recovery-s… Class Win - Peacock Tariff Consulting · peacocktariffconsulting.com · https://www.peacocktariffconsulting.com/ieepa-class-win ⑥ FY2026: refunds about $145B; net tariff income about $173B, down 11% —— Trump’s Tariff Strategy Collides With $2 Trillion US Deficit - Newsweek · newsweek.com · https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-tariff-strategy-collides-with-2-trilli…
  7. スライド 7

    China · Summit|Cut lists cover $23.2B (US) and $19.3B (China)

    発表者ノート

    The summit cuts are announced, not implemented. After the September 23 to 25 state visit, both sides announced about $30 billion each way of 2024 trade as recommended for reduced tariff treatment. The US list has 77 entries and China's has 1,619, and China said about 90% of products move to MFN rates. Covered trade shrank in 2025: the US list covered $23.2 billion, down 28%, and China's list $19.3 billion, down 35%. Combined, that is $42.5 billion, or 10.2% of $415 billion in two-way trade. Wait for implementing notices before changing prices. Next, the status of trade agreements.

    スライドのテキスト

    China · Summit

    Cut lists cover $23.2B (US) and $19.3B (China)

    Source: Bloomberg; White House; MOFCOM via Global Times; Capital Economics via AP

    Cuts announced, not implemented

    Announced, not implemented: after the Sept 23–25 state visit, both sides announced about $30B each way of 2024 trade as recommended for reduced tariff treatment

    US list entries

    1,619

    China list entries

    ~90 %

    of products move to MFN rates, China said

    Consequence

    The covered trade shrank in 2025, so the headline $30B overstates what is actually traded under the lists.

    Next step

    Check each line against the published lists and wait for implementing notices before changing prices.

    Covered imports of each list, $B

    Read: covered imports fell 28% (US), 35% (China)

    Combined 2025 covered trade

    $42.5 billion

    Share of $415B two-way trade

    10.2 %

    Average US tariff on China: about 22% falling to 20.5% (Capital Economics)

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① After the Sept 23-25 state visit, both sides announced about $30B each way of 2024 trade as recommended for reduced tariff treatment; announced, not implemented —— Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Advances a Fair and Reciprocal Relationship with China While Hosting Historic State Visit – The White House · whitehouse.gov · https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-do… US agree tariff cuts on $30 billion worth of imports, with 90% of products to see MFN rates - Global Times · globaltimes.cn · https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371455.shtml ② The US list has 77 entries and China's list 1,619 —— US, China to cut tariffs on $60 billion of non-sensitive goods · farmprogress.com · https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/us-china-to-cut-tariffs-on-60-b… ③ US list covered imports of $32.3B in 2024 and $23.2B in 2025 (-28%); China list $29.7B and $19.3B (-35%) —— Same as ② ④ Combined 2025 covered trade is $42.5B, 10.2% of $415B two-way trade —— Same as ② ⑤ China said about 90% of products move to MFN rates —— China, US agree tariff cuts on $30 billion worth of imports, with 90% of products to see MFN rates - Global Times · globaltimes.cn · https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371455.shtml ⑥ Average US tariff on China about 22% falling to 20.5% (Capital Economics) —— U.S. and China release product lists for tariff cuts after Trump-Xi meeting | PBS News · pbs.org · https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-china-release-product-lists…
  8. スライド 8

    Agreements · Status|Treat announced deals as pending until signed

    発表者ノート

    The last page covered the US–China cut lists; this one asks which other deals actually change a rate. Treat announced deals as pending until signed. The only dated formal act was USTR's Oct 2 consultation on the 2027 USMCA review, with comments and hearing requests due Jan 12, 2027. US–Mexico talks are reported as stalled, with autos at 25% and steel and aluminum at 50%. The EU pays a Section 301 top-up to 10% and Switzerland 12.5%. India pays 10%, and its framework is not in force. So quote current rates in contracts and add price-adjustment clauses for the Jan 12 and India dates. Next, trade remedies, starting with solar.

    スライドのテキスト

    Agreements · Status

    Treat announced deals as pending until signed

    Source: USTR; GHY International; Airlift USA; AP; The Hindu

    Agreement status, Oct 24, 2026

    In force

    Framework

    Under negotiation

    Stalled or no deal

    Partner

    Status

    Tariff rate

    Date or next step

    USMCA (Canada, Mexico)

    In force ; annual reviews, no 16-year extension

    Rules unchanged

    Consultation Oct 2; comments due Jan 12, 2027

    US–Mexico

    Under negotiation, reported stalled

    Autos 25% ; steel, aluminum 50%

    Reuters, Oct 15

    US–Canada

    No agreement ; tariff dispute

    US 50% ; Canada 15%, 25%, 50% on 874 items (C$27.6B)

    Aug 19 and Sep 8 (context, in effect)

    EU–US

    Framework (2025), applied in tariff schedule

    Section 301 top-up to 10% ; 43 exempt lines

    Snapshot Oct 8

    Switzerland–US

    Agreement terms not stated

    Section 301 top-up to 12.5% ; 134 exempt lines

    Snapshot Oct 8

    India–US

    Framework (Feb 2026), unsigned

    Framework 18% ; in effect 10%

    Rubio, Oct 20: “small number of items left”

    Canada–India

    Under negotiation (reported)

    Not stated

    Target: G20 Miami, December

    EU–Philippines

    “Substantial agreement” on FTA talks; not signed

    Not stated

    Date not stated

    Next dated deadline

    Jan 12, 2027

    USMCA comments and hearing requests due, after USTR's Oct 2 consultation

    Consequence

    Until a deal is signed and implemented, the applicable rate stays the Section 301 and 232 rate .

    Next step

    Quote current rates in contracts and add price-adjustment clauses for the Jan 12, 2027 and India dates.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① USTR's Oct 2 consultation on the 2027 USMCA review; comments and hearing requests due Jan 12, 2027 —— USTR Seeks Public Comment on the 2027 Joint Review of USMCA | United States Trade Representative · ustr.gov · https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026… Seeks Feedback on 2027 USMCA Joint Review · ghy.com · https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/2027-usmca-joint-review ② US-Mexico talks reported stalled; autos 25%, steel and aluminum 50% —— Déjà Vu? U.S.-Mexico Trade Talks Stall on Tariffs, Echoing Canada Dispute as USMCA Review Nears - RFD-TV · rfdtv.com · https://www.rfdtv.com/deja-vu-u-s-mexico-trade-talks-stall-on-tariffs-… Opens USMCA Public Consultation Process, But Delays Negotiations With Mexico – The Metals Service Center Institute · msci.org · https://www.msci.org/ustr-opens-usmca-public-consultation-process-but-… ③ Canada counter-tariffs: C$27.6B on 874 items at 15%, 25% and 50% —— Latest Tariff Developments · rvia.org · https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/latest-tariff-developments ④ EU Section 301 top-up to 10% with 43 exempt lines; Switzerland 12.5% with 134 exempt lines —— US Tariffs on the EU 2026: Rates by Measure | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/european-union;US Tariffs on Switzerland 2026: Current Rates | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/switzerland ⑤ Rubio said on Oct 20 that a small number of items remain on the India deal —— Rubio and Jaishankar hold talks in Mumbai as US and India aim to finalize trade deal - ABC News · abcnews.com · https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/rubio-jaishankar-hold-talk… says India-U.S. trade deal close, urges New Delhi to boost U.S. energy, defence buys - The Hindu · thehindu.com · https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-us-talks-push-energy… ⑥ India pays a 10% Section 301 duty and the framework is not in force —— US Tariffs on India 2026: Rates and Changes | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/india
  9. スライド 9

    Remedies · Solar|Commerce's final solar AD rates reach 123% on India

    発表者ノート

    Moving from agreements to remedies, solar shows how high these duties can go. Commerce set final antidumping rates on Sep 11, 2026, which is context from before the window: India 123.04%, Indonesia 94.36% and Laos 65.43%. Countervailing rates are 126.09% for India, 73.2 to 173.7% for Indonesia and 82.03 to 153.67% for Laos. Adding the highest rates gives 249.13%, 268.06% and 219.10%, so those sums are ceilings. The ITC voted a final affirmative injury finding on Oct 14; orders are expected about Nov 2 and its report is due Nov 23. Check origin and cash-deposit rates before the orders publish. Next, a case that is only at petition stage.

    スライドのテキスト

    Remedies · Solar

    Commerce's final solar AD rates reach 123% on India

    Source: pv magazine; USITC; Utility Dive

    Final antidumping rate by origin, % (AD, all producers)

    Commerce final determinations, Sep 11, 2026 (context)

    Consequence:

    Combined duties of more than 200% close the US market to these three origins for most producers.

    CVD and the ceiling

    Origin

    CVD

    Sum of highest

    India

    126.09%

    249.13%

    Indonesia

    73.2–173.7%

    268.06%

    Laos

    82.03–153.67%

    219.10%

    Sums use the top CVD rate, so they are ceilings.

    What happens next

    Oct 14

    ITC voted a final affirmative injury finding

    ~Nov 2

    Commerce orders expected

    Nov 23

    ITC report due

    Next step

    Check origin and cash-deposit rates for solar imports before the orders publish.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① Final antidumping rates on solar cells: India 123.04%, Indonesia 94.36%, Laos 65.43% —— USITC finds material injury from solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos - pv magazine USA · pv-magazine-usa.com · https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/10/16/usitc-finds-material-injury-fro… ② Commerce final determinations were made on Sep 11, 2026 (context, before the window) —— US ITC Issues Final Affirmative Determinations in AD and CVD Injury Investigation on Crystalline Silicon PV Cells - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · news.metal.com · https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104160362-us-itc-issues-final-affir… finds material injury from solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos - pv magazine USA · pv-magazine-usa.com · https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/10/16/usitc-finds-material-injury-fro… ③ Countervailing rates: India 126.09%, Indonesia 73.2–173.7%, Laos 82.03–153.67% —— Same as ① ④ Sums of the highest rates: India 249.13%, Indonesia 268.06%, Laos 219.10% —— Same as ① ⑤ On Oct 14 the ITC voted a final affirmative injury finding —— Commission Vote on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells | United States International Trade Commission · usitc.gov · https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2026/er1014_69351.htm ⑥ Commerce orders expected about Nov 2; ITC report due Nov 23 —— Solar imports from India, Indonesia, Laos injured US manufacturers: ITC | Utility Dive · utilitydive.com · https://www.utilitydive.com/news/itc-material-injury-solar-imports-ind… finds material injury from solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos - pv magazine USA · pv-magazine-usa.com · https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/10/16/usitc-finds-material-injury-fro…
  10. スライド 10

    Remedies · Amines|Amine imports from China fell 32% in value in 2025

    発表者ノート

    The solar case is nearly final; this next one has barely started. A US antidumping and countervailing petition on amine compounds from China was filed on Sep 29, 2026, and the ITC issued its notice on Oct 5. Imports from China were $315.1M in 2023, $407.5M in 2024, $277.1M in 2025 and $143.6M in the first half of 2026, so 2025 fell 32% in value from 2024. The alleged antidumping margins of 261.34 to 476.13% are allegations, not rates, and no duty applies yet. The ITC preliminary vote is estimated for Nov 13, so track it for exposure. Next, the wider trade data, starting with the WTO outlook.

    スライドのテキスト

    Remedies · Amines

    Amine imports from China fell 32% in value in 2025

    Source: Federal Register; law-firm summary of the petition

    Imports of amine compounds from China, $M

    2025 vs 2024: 277.1 ÷ 407.5 = −32% in value · H1 2026 covers January to June

    Consequence

    Falling import value and a sharp unit-price decline (about 41% from 2023 to H1 2026, computed) are the injury story, but no duty applies yet.

    US case timeline

    Sep 29

    AD and CVD petition filed

    Oct 5

    ITC notice, 91 FR 63307

    Nov 13

    ITC preliminary vote (est.)

    Dec 23

    Commerce preliminary CVD (est.)

    Mar 8, 2027

    Commerce preliminary AD (est.)

    Alleged AD margins

    261.34–476.13 %

    Allegations in the petition, not rates

    Next step

    Track the ITC vote and any preliminary determinations for exposure.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① AD and CVD petition on amine compounds from China filed on Sep 29, 2026 —— Petition Summary: Certain Amine Compounds from The People's Republic of China | International Trade & Supply Chain Insights · internationaltradeinsights.com · https://www.internationaltradeinsights.com/2026/09/petition-summary-ce… ② ITC notice published Oct 5, 91 FR 63307 —— Federal Register :: Amine Compounds From China; Institution of Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Investigations and Scheduling of Preliminary Phase Investigations · federalregister.gov · https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/05/2026-20286/amine-… ③ Imports from China: $315.1M (2023), $407.5M (2024), $277.1M (2025), $143.6M (H1 2026) —— Same as ① ④ 2025 vs 2024: 277.1 ÷ 407.5 = −32% in value —— Same as ① ⑤ Unit price fell about 41% from 2023 to H1 2026 (computed) —— Same as ① ⑥ Alleged AD margins 261.34–476.13%, allegations in the petition, not rates —— Petition Summary: Certain Amine Compounds from The People's Republic of China | International Trade & Supply Chain Insights · internationaltradeinsights.com · https://www.internationaltradeinsights.com/2026/09/petition-summary-ce… Antidumping Duty and Countervailing Duty Petitions on Certain Amine Compounds from China | Publications | Insights | Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP · faegredrinker.com · https://www.faegredrinker.com/en/insights/publications/2026/9/new-anti…
  11. スライド 11

    Data · WTO outlook|Asia supplies 4.0 of the 3.9 points of growth

    発表者ノート

    The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade volume forecast on Oct 8 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March. All of these growth figures are forecasts, so treat them as estimates. Contributions to 2026 growth are Asia 4.0 points, North America 0.5, Europe 0.1 and other regions minus 0.7, which sum to 3.9. AI-enabling goods grew 67% in the first half of 2026 and account for 47% of value growth. Services volume is forecast at 3.3%, down from 4.8% in March. Growth rests on AI hardware and Asia, so compare your own lanes against that split before using the headline. Next, US import data shows what a ranking can and cannot tell you.

    スライドのテキスト

    Data · WTO outlook

    Asia supplies 4.0 of the 3.9 points of growth

    Source: WTO; WTO via Third World Network

    WTO raises its forecast, unevenly

    Forecast raised

    On Oct 8 the WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade volume forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% in March. Gains are uneven by region. All growth figures are forecasts (estimate).

    3.9 %

    2026 merchandise volume (March: 1.9%)

    4.1 %

    2027 merchandise volume

    3.3 %

    2026 services volume (March: 4.8%)

    Consequence

    Growth rests on AI hardware and on Asia , so a slowdown there would show up in the global figure at once.

    Next step

    Compare your own trade lanes with the AI-goods and Asia split before using the headline growth rate.

    Contributions to 2026 growth

    Percentage points of 2026 trade volume growth (forecast); sum 3.9

    Reading: Asia adds 4.0, above the 3.9 total; other regions subtract 0.7

    AI-enabling goods, value growth

    +16 %

    2024

    +31 %

    2025

    +67 %

    H1 2026

    47% of value growth in world merchandise trade comes from AI-enabling goods.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① On Oct 8 the WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade volume forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% in March —— WTO | 2026 News items - AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven · wto.org · https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/stat_08oct26_510_e.htm;WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East · bozemandailychronicle.com · https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/wire/business/wto-raises-merchan… ② 2027 merchandise volume growth forecast 4.1% —— Same as ① ③ 2026 services volume growth 3.3% (March: 4.8%) —— WTO | 2026 News items - AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven · wto.org · https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/stat_08oct26_510_e.htm ④ AI-enabling goods value growth +16% (2024), +31% (2025), +67% (H1 2026) —— WTO: Global trade slows to 3.9% in 2026 amid skewed AI-led patterns · twn.my · https://twn.my/title2/wto.info/2026/ti261011.htm ⑤ AI-enabling goods supplied 47% of value growth in world merchandise trade —— WTO: Global trade slows to 3.9% in 2026 amid skewed AI-led patterns · twn.my · https://twn.my/title2/wto.info/2026/ti261011.htm;WTO | 2026 News items - AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven · wto.org · https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/stat_08oct26_510_e.htm ⑥ 2026 contributions to growth: Asia 4.0, North America 0.5, Europe 0.1, other regions −0.7 points, sum 3.9 —— Same as ④
  12. スライド 12

    Data · US imports|Country deficits show rank, not trade displacement

    発表者ノート

    The US August 2026 deficit was $105.6B on record imports of $420.8B. Mexico is largest at $27.7B and Vietnam second at $24.0B, with China fourth at $16.4B. That is a ranking, not displacement, because the material has no import levels by origin for China or India. PIIE also finds a large gap between the two countries' statistics: for January to July 2026, China-reported exports to the US were $258.1B against US-recorded imports of $158.3B, a gap of $99.8B, or 63%. A deficit rank does not show where production moved. Use your own customs origin data and check partner statistics before concluding that supply moved. Last, the dates that matter.

    スライドのテキスト

    Data · US imports

    Country deficits show rank, not trade displacement

    Source: BEA and Census; PIIE

    A ranking of balances, not of moves

    The US August 2026 deficit was $105.6B on record imports of $420.8B . Mexico and Vietnam top the deficit and China is fourth. No import levels by origin are given for China or India, so this shows a ranking, not displacement.

    Two national statistics, one gap Jan–Jul 2026

    $258.1B

    China-reported exports to the US

    $158.3B

    US-recorded imports

    $99.8B

    Gap, 63% of US-recorded imports

    PIIE finds a large gap between the two countries' statistics.

    Consequence

    A deficit rank does not show where production moved , and diverging statistics point to evasion or misreporting.

    August 2026 US deficit by partner, $B

    Goods and services, seasonally adjusted

    Reading: Mexico and Vietnam together run $51.7B, about 3.2 times China's $16.4B

    Next step

    Use origin data from your own customs records and check partner statistics before concluding that supply moved.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① US August 2026 deficit $105.6B on record imports of $420.8B —— U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · bea.gov · https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-service… 2026 Press Highlights · bea.gov · https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-10/trad0826-hist.pdf ② August deficits: Mexico $27.7B, Vietnam $24.0B, Taiwan $18.3B, China $16.4B, EU $11.0B, Korea $9.4B, Canada $7.1B, India $6.2B —— U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · bea.gov · https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-service… ③ Mexico and Vietnam together run $51.7B, about 3.2 times China's $16.4B —— Same as ② ④ Jan–Jul 2026: China-reported exports to the US $258.1B vs US-recorded imports $158.3B —— Lost in tabulation: Diverging US-China trade data point to tariff evasion | PIIE · piie.com · https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/lost-tabulation-div… ⑤ The $99.8B gap is 63% of US-recorded imports —— Same as ④ ⑥ PIIE finds a large gap between the two countries' statistics —— Same as ④
  13. スライド 13

    Action · Dates|Act before Nov 9 on exclusions and ship fees

    発表者ノート

    Several dated measures cluster in November, so deadlines matter more than rates this month. The Section 301 exclusions' last covered day, for 178 lines, is Nov 9, and the ship-fee pause ends then unless extended. The original truce expiry of Nov 10 has an announced extension to Jan 10, 2027. Solar orders are expected about Nov 2, the ITC votes on amine compounds on Nov 13 (estimated), and USMCA comments are due Jan 12, 2027. A missed exclusion or refund filing cannot be corrected after the date. Importers should file refunds and document U.S. content, and exporters should plan to Jan 10, 2027. That closes this month's brief.

    スライドのテキスト

    Action · Dates

    Act before Nov 9 on exclusions and ship fees

    Source: Argents; Diaz Trade Law; Wilson Sonsini; USITC; USTR

    Several dated measures cluster in November

    Date

    Event

    State on Oct 24

    Oct 6, 2026

    CAPE Phase 3 opens

    In effect

    Oct 14, 2026

    BIS “U.S. content” notice; ITC final affirmative on solar

    In effect

    About Nov 2, 2026

    Solar duty orders expected

    Upcoming

    Nov 9, 2026

    Section 301 exclusions’ last covered day (178 lines); ship-fee pause ends unless extended

    Upcoming

    Nov 10, 2026

    Original truce expiry, extended to Jan 10, 2027

    Announced extension

    Nov 13, 2026

    ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds (estimated)

    Upcoming

    Dec 4, 2026

    Polysilicon Section 232 measure

    Scheduled

    Jan 5, 2027

    Chassis redetermination due

    Upcoming

    Jan 12, 2027

    USMCA review comments due

    Upcoming

    Action points by situation

    Paid IEEPA duties

    Check eligibility and file through CBP’s CAPE; fix missing bank details.

    Section 301 exclusions

    Plan for the 178 exclusion lines ending after Nov 9; no extension announced.

    Metal-intensive goods, Canada or Mexico

    Document U.S. content: 25% applies to non-U.S. content, 15% floor, in effect from Oct 14.

    US–China supply chains

    Treat the $30B-each-way cuts as announced, not implemented; plan to Jan 10, 2027.

    Consequence

    A missed exclusion or refund filing cannot be corrected after the date , so deadlines matter more than rates this month.

    Next step

    Importers file refunds and document U.S. content, exporters plan to Jan 10, 2027, and everyone tracks Nov 9, 10 and 13.

    数字の出どころ
    【本页依据】 ① Nov 9: Section 301 exclusions' last covered day (178 lines); no extension announced —— Section 301 Tariffs 2026: Rates and Deadlines | Argents · argents.com · https://argents.com/section-301-tariffs-2026-guide;Section 301 Exclusions Expire 9 Nov 2026: What To Do · summitsourcingcn.com · https://www.summitsourcingcn.com/blog-section-301-exclusions-expire-no… ② Nov 9: ship-fee pause ends unless extended —— US-China Trade Truce Extended: What Sellers Need to Know · dscpsmartfulfillment.com · https://dscpsmartfulfillment.com/blog/us-china-trade-truce-2026 ③ Nov 10: original truce expiry, extended to Jan 10, 2027 —— China announces 10 outcomes from latest trade talks with US, including tariff cuts, AI dialogue - Global Times · globaltimes.cn · https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371470.shtml ④ Nov 13: ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds (estimated) —— Petition Summary: Certain Amine Compounds from The People's Republic of China | International Trade & Supply Chain Insights · internationaltradeinsights.com · https://www.internationaltradeinsights.com/2026/09/petition-summary-ce… ⑤ About Nov 2: solar duty orders expected; Oct 14 ITC final affirmative on solar —— Solar imports from India, Indonesia, Laos injured US manufacturers: ITC | Utility Dive · utilitydive.com · https://www.utilitydive.com/news/itc-material-injury-solar-imports-ind… Vote on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells | United States International Trade Commission · usitc.gov · https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2026/er1014_69351.htm ⑥ Dec 4: polysilicon Section 232 measure scheduled —— Section 232 Tariffs in 2026: Rates and Scope | Airlift USA · airliftusa.com · https://airliftusa.com/tariff-updates/section-232
  14. スライド 14

    Deadlines matter more than rates

    発表者ノート

    To close: this month, deadlines matter more than rates. Map each import to its rate, file refunds and exclusions on time, and treat summit cuts as pending. Thank you.

    スライドのテキスト

    Closing

    Map each import to its rate, file every refund and

    exclusion on time, and treat summit cuts as pending.

    Thank you

    2026-10-24 · Global Trade and Tariffs Monthly Brief · Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026

出典(138)

リンク先は、Divriteがリサーチ中に見つけて引用した元のページです。

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出典をあと126件表示
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  87. 99China opens anti-dumping investigation into EU p-nitrotoluene importsuseforesight.io
  88. 100China Opens Anti-Dumping Investigation into EU p-Nitrotoluene from Oct. 3, 2026 – HS Code Match Newshscodematch.com
  89. 101China launches anti-dumping probe into EU p-Nitrotoluene imports-Xinhuaenglish.news.cn
  90. 102China launches anti-dumping probe into EU p-nitrotoluene imports on domestic industry application, citing injury to Chinese producers: MOFCOM - Global Timesglobaltimes.cn
  91. 103China Lanches Anti-Dumping Investigation on EU Chemicalschinatrademonitor.com
  92. 104China Launches Anti-Dumping Investigation into EU Chemical Importsgeopolitechs.org
  93. 105Federal Register :: Certain Corrosion-Resistant Steel Products From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results and Rescission, in Part, of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025federalregister.gov
  94. 106Federal Register :: Certain Corrosion-Resistant Steel Products From Taiwan: Preliminary Results and Rescission, in Part, of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025federalregister.gov
  95. 107Federal Register/Vol. 91, No. 197/Wednesday, October 14, ...govinfo.gov
  96. 108Federal Register :: Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products From Japan: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2023-2024federalregister.gov
  97. 109Federal Register :: Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Order, Finding, or Suspended Investigation; Opportunity To Request Administrative Review and Join Annual Inquiry Service List; Note Regarding Format of Review Requestsfederalregister.gov
  98. 110Federal Register :: Certain Steel Nails From Malaysia: Preliminary Results and Rescission, in Part, of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025federalregister.gov
  99. 111AI goods drive 47% of global trade growth, WTO saysactuia.com
  100. 112WTO: Global trade slows to 3.9% in 2026 amid skewed AI-led patternstwn.my
  101. 113Global Trade Outlook and Statistics - update: October 2026wto.org
  102. 114WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle Eastbozemandailychronicle.com
  103. 115WTO | 2026 News items - AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be unevenwto.org
  104. 116WTO raises 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%chinadailyasia.com
  105. 117U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  106. 118U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services August 2026bea.gov
  107. 119[PDF] U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, JUNE ...census.gov
  108. 120U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 | Forex Factoryforexfactory.com
  109. 121August 2026 Press Highlightsbea.gov
  110. 122Foreign Trade Press Release Pagecensus.gov
  111. 123Lost in tabulation: Diverging US-China trade data point to tariff evasion | PIIEpiie.com
  112. 124Mexico Exports to the US Hit Record US$60.6 Billion | The Rio Timesriotimesonline.com
  113. 125Closer but Not Steadier? Logistics Performance and Latin ...researchsquare.com
  114. 126What is the average US tariff rate for China? | USAFactsusafacts.org
  115. 127Before You Read the China Deal, Check the 2025 Trumpian Trade Dealsrbaldwin.substack.com
  116. 128Washington’s $70 Billion in Lost Protection: Liberation Day, One Year Later | Coalition For A Prosperous Americaprosperousamerica.org
  117. 129Eroding economic leverage: choke points, infrastructure and intermediary economies in US–China competition | International Affairs | Oxford Academicacademic.oup.com
  118. 130New supply chain realities are bringing trade facilitation and traceability together: Better Borders for Trade, Traceability and Enforcement | OECDoecd.org
  119. 131A World Trade Check-In Starring Southeast Asia | Insights | Fisher Investmentsfisherinvestments.com
  120. 132Three Russia Export Cases Put End-User Diligence in the Spotlight — Global Trade & Sanctions Law — October 19, 2026globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com
  121. 133Trade and Development Report 2026: The geoeconomics of development | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)unctad.org
  122. 134Global growth slows to 2.6%, and gaps widen between developing regions | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)unctad.org
  123. 135UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2026: Global growth slows to 2.6%, and gaps widen between developing regions | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)unctad.org
  124. 1362026 Trade andunctad.org
  125. 137Global Supply Chain Forum 2026 session: Industry perspectives – supply chain disruptions | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)unctad.org
  126. 138Geoeconomics: What is it and what does it mean for development? | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)unctad.org
目次
  1. 011. Key takeaways from the month
  2. 022. Tariff adjustments: United States
  3. 033. The US–China summit and the truce
  4. 044. Trade agreements and negotiations
  5. 055. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties
  6. 066. Trade data and supply-chain shift
  7. 077. What companies should do
  8. 088. References

1. Key takeaways from the month

Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, the US tariff system settled onto new legal ground, refunds moved at scale, and the US–China summit produced announcements that are not yet implemented. Five conclusions explain the month; each is supported in the chapter named in brackets, with measures judged against Oct 24.

1. The US tariff wall now rests on Section 232 and Section 301, not on IEEPA. The Supreme Court held on Feb 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs, the Section 122 bridge expired on Jul 24, and a Section 301 action with 10% and 12.5% tiers has applied to about 60 economies since then. Section 232 carries the product rates: 50% on steel and aluminum under Annex I-A, and 100% general, 15% for the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland, and 0% for the UK on patented pharmaceuticals. Penn Wharton puts the effective rate at 7.1% in August, 24.3% for China. [Chapter 2]

2. Refunds are flowing, with gaps. By Oct 2, CBP had accepted $136.6B and sent $126.0B (92%) through CAPE, with $1.1B on hold for missing bank details, and a class was certified on Oct 8 in Freestyle World. [Chapter 2]

3. The US–China summit announced cuts; none is implemented. After the Sept 23–25 visit, the two sides announced that goods worth about $30B each way (2024 trade) would be recommended for reduced tariffs, and the truce was extended from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027. Capital Economics puts the average US tariff on China at about 22% falling to 20.5%. [Chapter 3]

4. Agreements moved slowly. The only dated formal act in the window was USTR's Oct 2 consultation on the 2027 USMCA review, with comments due Jan 12, 2027. The US–Mexico talks are reported as stalled and Secretary Rubio said on Oct 20 that a "small number of items" remain on the India deal. [Chapter 4]

5. Trade is growing on AI goods, and remedies keep widening. The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise volume forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% in March, with AI-enabling goods behind 47% of value growth, and the US August deficit was $105.6B on record imports of $420.8B. Chinese amine compounds drew a US petition on Sep 29 and the ITC made a final affirmative solar finding on Oct 14. [Chapters 5, 6]

1.1 Measures at a glance

Issuer Measure Scope Effective Status (Oct 24) Source
USTR Section 301 forced-labor action 10% and 12.5% tiers, about 60 economies Jul 24, 2026 In effect (context) Argents
Commerce Section 232 pharmaceuticals 100% general; 15% EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland; 0% UK Final phase Sep 29, 2026 In effect WilmerHale
BIS "U.S. content" notice for metal tariffs 25% on non-U.S. content, 15% floor Oct 14, 2026 In effect Diaz Trade Law
CBP IEEPA refunds through CAPE $136.6B accepted by Oct 2 Phase 3 from Oct 6 In effect StartBusinessByState
US and China Reduced tariffs on about $30B each way Recommended Not implemented Announced White House
US and China Truce extension Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027 Announced Announced MOFCOM via Global Times
USTR USMCA 2027 review consultation Comments due Jan 12, 2027 Oct 2, 2026 Open USTR
Commerce, ITC Amine compounds from China AD and CVD petition Filed Sep 29, 2026 ITC preliminary phase Federal Register

2. Tariff adjustments: United States

Chapter 1 gave the month's headline conclusions; this chapter sets out the US measures behind them. Measures dated before Sep 24 are labelled "context", those dated Sep 24 to Oct 23 are "window", and later dates are "upcoming".

2.1 Rate comparison by product category

Category Measure (issuer, basis) Rate Effective Status
Most goods, ~60 economies USTR, Section 301 forced-labor action 10% tier (incl. Canada, Mexico, India, UK); 12.5% tier (incl. China, Vietnam). EU, Taiwan 10% and Japan, Korea, Switzerland 12.5%, inclusive of MFN Jul 24, 2026 In effect (context); two CIT suits pending
Same goods, before Jul 24 President, Section 122 10% global surcharge Feb 24 to Jul 23, 2026 Expired Jul 24 (context); CIT ruled it unlawful May 7, stayed on appeal
Reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs President, IEEPA Several rates; held unlawful Collection stopped Feb 24, 2026 Terminated (context); refunds under way
Brazil USTR, Section 301 25% on most imports Jul 22, 2026 In effect (context)
China, legacy USTR, Section 301 Lists 1–4A 25% (Lists 1–3), 7.5% (4A); up to 100% on EVs. Adding 12.5% gives 25 + 12.5 = 37.5% on List 1–3 goods 2018–Jan 1, 2026 In effect (context)
China, 178 excluded lines USTR, Section 301 exclusions (HTS 9903.88.69, .70) Exclusion from 301 duty Through Nov 9, 2026 Expiry upcoming; no extension announced
Steel, aluminum, copper, derivatives Commerce/President, Section 232 (Proc. 11021) 50% Annex I-A; 25% Annex I-B; 15% combined cap, Annex III; 200% Russian aluminum Apr 6, 2026 In effect (context); Annex III relief to Dec 31, 2027
Canada/Mexico USMCA metals (Annex I-C) Section 232 (Proc. 11032) 25% on non-U.S. content, floor 15% Jun 8, 2026–Dec 31, 2027 In effect; U.S.-content definition Oct 14 (window)
Patented pharmaceuticals Section 232 (Proc. 11020) 100% general; 15% EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland; 0% UK Jul 31 (listed firms); Sep 29, 2026 (others) In effect; final phase Sep 29 (window)
Vehicles, trucks, buses Section 232 25% / 25% / 10% Apr 3 and Nov 1, 2025 In effect (context)
Polysilicon Section 232 Minimum price plus 15% Dec 4, 2026 Scheduled (upcoming)
Canadian goods President, Section 338 Additional 50%, scope modified; stacks on 232 Sep 15, 2026 In effect (context)

Since IEEPA fell, the US tariff wall rests on Section 232 (by product, up to 100%) and Section 301 (by country, 10–12.5%). Only the IEEPA layer is being repaid.

Two dates need care. The Section 301 exclusions run "through 11:59 p.m." on Nov 9, 2026 according to Argents and Summit Sourcing, the latter quoting the USTR notice. Thomson Reuters, Gateway Lines and The Russo Firm give Nov 10. Both fit: Nov 9 is the last day covered and Nov 10 is the first day without cover, and we follow that reading.

2.2 IEEPA aftermath, refunds and revenue

The Supreme Court held 6 to 3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on Feb 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not allow tariffs. The 150-day Section 122 bridge expired on Jul 24 and Section 301 duties replaced it. CBP told the Court of International Trade that about $166 billion was paid by 330,000 importers on 53 million entries.

Refunds run through CBP's CAPE system. Phase 1 (since Apr 20) covers unliquidated entries and those liquidated within 80 days. Phase 2 began Jun 29. The table uses CBP's court filings as compiled by StartBusinessByState.

As of Accepted Sent to Treasury Share sent
Jun 29, 2026 $104.3B $71.1B 68%
Jul 31 $128.7B $100.0B 78%
Aug 21 $132.5B $106.6B 80%
Sep 11 $134.7B $122.0B 91%
Oct 2 $136.6B $126.0B 92% (126.0 ÷ 136.6)

Acceptances are flattening: +$3.8B, +$2.2B and +$1.9B over the three-week gaps (132.5 − 128.7; 134.7 − 132.5; 136.6 − 134.7). About 20,362 refunds worth $1.1 billion were on hold for missing bank details. A court order put the Sep 11 figure at $134.2B, but we use CBP's filing.

Phase 3 opened Oct 6 for importers that sued and hold court-ordered reliquidation. By noon, CBP had accepted 477 declarations covering 425,517 entries. On Oct 8 Judge Eaton certified a class of importers that paid IEEPA duties and have not sued (Freestyle World). Troutman Pepper Locke (law firm) notes that certification is not a refund order. Per Peacock Tariff Consulting, the government's appeal against relief for non-plaintiffs is pending at the Federal Circuit, so non-filers with finally liquidated entries stay outside CAPE. The gap is about $30B: 166 − 136.6 = 29.4, close to the figure Peacock attributes to the court. Section 122 duties are outside CAPE according to Great Lakes Customs Law, and the Section 301 forced-labor challenge awaits a first CIT decision.

Effective rate and revenue. Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) puts the average effective tariff rate at 7.1% in August 2026, up from 6.7% in July and 2.3% in January 2025. China faces 24.3%, steel and aluminum 39.8%, and vehicles 13.8%. USMCA exemption claims reached 81.4% of Canada–Mexico imports. The 24.3% China figure is duties ÷ imports; the 37.5% above is a legal stack on List 1 goods, so they are different measures. Treasury figures reported by Reuters (via Newsweek) show about $145B refunded in fiscal 2026 and net tariff income down 11% to about $173B. Implied gross receipts are about 173 + 145 = $318B. Eco3min's reading of Treasury statements shows June refunds of $49.18B and negative net customs receipts in May (−$0.04B), June (−$25.56B) and July (−$8.55B). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in August that fiscal 2026 net customs revenue would be about $250B below its February projection (estimate).

2.3 Section 232 and 301 details

Pharmaceuticals (window). Proclamation 11020, signed Apr 2, 2026, sets 100% on patented drugs and ingredients in Annex I. The final phase took effect Sep 29 for firms outside Annex III; listed firms started Jul 31. WilmerHale (law firm) reports that such firms are now generally at 100% unless an exclusion applies. The rate is not added to the ordinary duty; Column 1 applies where it is higher. Reduced and zero rates:

  • 15% total, inclusive of Column 1, for specified partners (EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein).
  • UK: the April summary said 10%; CBP's Aug 1 guidance confirmed 0% additional duty under HTS 9903.04.63. We follow CBP.
  • 20% plus Column 1 for firms with approved onshoring plans through Apr 1, 2030, then 100% from Apr 2, 2030; 0% through Jan 20, 2029 with a Health and Human Services (HHS) pricing agreement.
  • Generics and biosimilars 0%, to be reviewed within a year. BIS guidance of Sep 21 added 0% for specialty products (orphan, nuclear, plasma-derived, fertility, cell and gene, antibody-drug conjugates, countermeasures, animal health) from 19 listed jurisdictions or groupings, or on an urgent-health-need request to [email protected].

Metals and U.S. content (window). BIS published FR Doc. 2026-20938 on Oct 14, effective for entries from 12:01 a.m. ET that day. For USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods, "U.S. content" means (1) value from parts wholly obtained, entirely produced or substantially transformed in the US, plus (2) value of US-melted steel or US-smelted aluminum and copper not already counted. The notice sets no filing procedure. CBP's Jun 5 message (CSMS #68855869) still caps the 0% line at 40% of value. Per Forwarder News, 25% × (100% − 40%) = 15%, exactly the floor, so the wider definition only helps goods below the cap; each extra 10 points credited cuts duty by 2.5 points. Diaz Trade Law (law firm) expects CBP may update its guidance.

Section 301 (upcoming). USTR extended 178 China exclusions (164 general, 14 solar equipment). Thomson Reuters says no extension has been announced and the Sep 27–28 "30-for-30" lists have no Federal Register notice yet (see Chapter 3). Also scheduled: suspended port fees on Chinese-built vessels run to Nov 9, with a decision due Nov 10 (according to Argents). USTR opened a second four-year China review on May 6.

3. The US–China summit and the truce

Chapter 2 set out the US tariff stack on Chinese goods; this chapter covers what the Washington state visit changed at the margin, and what is still only announced.

3.1 Outcomes: two readouts, one framework

Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on Sept 23, 2026 and left on Sept 25; the leaders' talks were on Sept 24 and 25. Wilson Sonsini dates the summit Sept 24–26; we follow Sept 23–25, because AP puts Xi's return to Beijing on Saturday Sept 26. The trade results are in the table.

Item US position China position Date Status
Board of Trade and Board of Investment White House: "operationalized"; Bessent and Greer oversee MOFCOM: Board of Trade set up; mandate details "released subsequently" Leaders, Sept 23–25 In operation; deputies meet at least quarterly
$30B-for-$30B tariff cuts "Recommendations" for more favorable treatment "Agreed to reduce"; takes effect simultaneously after domestic procedures Lists: Sept 27 (US), Sept 28 (MOFCOM) Announced, not implemented
Truce extension Bessent on Fox, Sept 23: conditions stay until Jan 10, 2027; White House had not documented it MOFCOM: extends the "Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement" from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027 Sept 23 (US); Sept 28 (China) Announced by both
Coal China to import at least 10 million metric tons in 2027 and 2028 Coal tariffs sit inside the framework; no tonnage in this account Sept 27–28 Announced
AI "Super Intelligence" Dialogue; incident channel; next exchange by Nov 2026 "AI dialogue" led by He Lifeng and Bessent; first session held; next before end of November Sept 25 (US); Sept 28 (China) Dialogue running; channel "agreed to establish", not yet running

The governments differ in framing. Washington calls the cuts recommendations, with reductions "determined and implemented in accordance with each side's domestic legal processes". Beijing calls them an agreement and promises simultaneous entry into force. The US names the truce after Busan (October 2025); MOFCOM calls it the Kuala Lumpur arrangement, with the same Nov 10, 2026 expiry. On AI, Xi's remark in the Chinese readout speaks of AI and its misuse, not "super intelligence".

3.2 Goods and rates

The issuers are USTR, the White House and MOFCOM, under the Board of Trade framework rather than a tariff proclamation. Each list carries about $30 billion of 2024 trade.

Bloomberg figures US list (Chinese goods) China list (US goods)
Entries 77 1,619
Imports covered, 2024 $32.3B $29.7B
Imports covered, 2025 $23.2B $19.3B
Change 2024 to 2025 −28% (23.2 ÷ 32.3 − 1) −35% (19.3 ÷ 29.7 − 1)

The 2025 figures sum to 23.2 + 19.3 = $42.5B, which is 10% of the $415B of goods Bloomberg says the two countries exchanged in 2025 (42.5 ÷ 415 = 10.2%). China Briefing gives $468B; we use Bloomberg's figure, the same source as the covered values.

Anadolu reverses the entry counts. We follow AP, Bloomberg, CNN and Thomson Reuters, which all give 1,619 for China's list and 77 for the US list.

  • China's list: agricultural goods, fish and seafood, logs and wood, cosmetics and medical devices. Reuters adds corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy and vegetable oils, and says non-seed soybeans are excluded. MOFCOM adds coal.
  • US list: small appliances, toys, holiday decorations and children's car seats. AP adds fireworks, tableware, glassware and soccer balls.
  • Left out: chips, electric vehicles and batteries. According to Thomson Reuters, rare earths, aircraft, steel, pharmaceuticals, crude and LNG are excluded too, as are toys with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or Ethernet.

Rates. No per-line rate appears in the material. MOFCOM says about 90% of products on each side move to most-favored-nation (MFN) rates. AP says MFN rates are the WTO standard and often in single digits. What happens to the other ~10% is not stated in the material. Capital Economics estimates the average US tariff on China falls from about 22% to 20.5%, a drop of 1.5 points. CNN describes the truce level as 30% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods. Thomson Reuters puts the effective rate on most Chinese goods at about 37.5%. We follow Capital Economics for the deal's effect, because it is the only estimate tied to these lists; the stack itself is Chapter 2's.

The summit produced a framework and a calendar, not a tariff change: both sides announced $30B-for-$30B lists and a truce to Jan 10, 2027, but the material shows no implementing notice from either government.

Announced versus implemented. Neither side gave a timetable. According to Thomson Reuters, the US had issued no Federal Register notice, proclamation or HTSUS Chapter 99 amendment (date of that check not stated).

3.3 The truce, and what remains open

The truce holds two suspensions. China's rare earth export controls, including the 0.1% extraterritorial threshold, are paused. The US BIS Affiliates Rule (50% ownership) is suspended. The US also cut fentanyl-related tariffs to 10% and suspended a Section 301 maritime probe in 2025; the IEEPA tariffs were invalidated in February. As of Oct 21, neither the White House nor BIS had issued a statement or rule confirming the extended Affiliates Rule suspension.

The two governments describe the extra two months differently. Greer called them "compliance periods" to test China's farm and rare earth commitments. MOFCOM called them room to "review and assess" and expects a "positive solution" on a further extension before year-end. Bessent said he did not know whether a bigger deal would be reached by Jan 10.

Date Event Status at Oct 24
Nov 9, 2026 Section 301 pause on fees for China-linked vessels ends unless extended, according to DSCP; NRF asked for an extension on Sept 23 Upcoming
November 2026 APEC summit, Shenzhen (day not stated); second AI dialogue by end of November Upcoming
December 2026 G20, Florida Upcoming
By end-2026 First meeting of the agricultural working group Upcoming
Jan 10, 2027 New truce expiry Upcoming

Still open: the incident channel has no published definition of an incident, operator or response time. Greer said national-security export controls are "off the table". The White House says only that work on rare earth shipments continues. AP notes a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 partners could add tariffs on China (Chapter 2).

4. Trade agreements and negotiations

Chapter 3 covers the US–China summit and the truce to Jan 10, 2027, so this chapter looks at the United States' other partners. There, the window produced one dated formal act, a USMCA consultation, and a run of statements about deals that are still unsigned.

The material records no newly signed US trade agreement in the window. The only dated formal step is USTR's Oct 2, 2026 USMCA comment request (deadline Jan 12, 2027). India is "very close" but unsigned, and EU and Swiss tariff levels rest on earlier frameworks now applied through the Section 301 and 232 schedules.

4.1 Agreements at a glance

In force means legal text applies; framework means an outline without final text; under negotiation means talks continue. The last two are not tariff changes.

Partner Status (Oct 24, 2026) Key terms Tariff rate Date Source
USMCA (Canada, Mexico) In force; annual reviews US declined a 16-year extension; term ends Jul 1, 2036 Rules unchanged (NFFS) Review Jul 1, 2026 (context); consultation Oct 2 (window) USTR; GHY; NFFS
US–Mexico Under negotiation, reported stalled Autos, steel, aluminum disputed Autos 25%; steel, aluminum 50% Reuters Oct 15 RFD-TV; MSCI
US–Canada No agreement; tariff dispute Section 338 vs Canadian counter-tariffs US 50%; Canada 15%, 25%, 50% Aug 19 and Sep 8 (context, in effect) Benesch; RVIA
EU–US Framework (2025), applied in tariff schedule 15% autos, patented drugs; metals 50% Section 301 top-up to 10% Aug 21, 2025 (context); snapshot Oct 8 Legal500; Airlift
Switzerland–US Agreement terms not stated in the material Rates only Section 301 top-up to 12.5% Snapshot Oct 8 Airlift
India–US Framework (Feb 2026), unsigned "Small number of items left" Framework 18%; in effect 10% Rubio, Oct 20 AP; Airlift
Canada–India Under negotiation (reported) Target: G20 Miami, December Not stated Date not stated WWD
EU–Philippines "Substantial agreement" on FTA talks Not signed Not stated Date not stated EY

4.2 North America: USMCA review, Mexico talks, Canada

USMCA. On Oct 2, 2026 USTR announced a public consultation ahead of the 2027 joint review, "as directed by Congress", plus a public hearing whose date and location are still to be published. According to the SBA Office of Advocacy, the Federal Register request followed on Oct 5 (cited as 91 FR 63379 by C.H. Robinson). Comments go to Docket USTR-2026-0595 and hearing requests with a testimony summary to Docket USTR-2026-0596, both due Jan 12, 2027, 11:59 p.m. EST (upcoming). According to GHY, rebuttals are due seven calendar days after the hearing ends and remarks are capped at five minutes.

At the first joint review on Jul 1, 2026 (context) the US did not agree to a new 16-year term, so annual reviews follow until all three parties confirm an extension or the term expires on Jul 1, 2036. NFFS notes that this does not terminate the agreement or change its rules.

Mexico. The third bilateral round was scheduled for Jul 21–23 in Mexico City, with steel, aluminum, autos, economic security, labor and agriculture on the agenda. According to MSCI (Oct 5), the fourth round was postponed from late September to October, reportedly for scheduling conflicts. Reuters reported on Oct 15 that progress had stalled, though talks continued. An RFD-TV commentator says Commerce Secretary Lutnick opposes deep cuts to the 25% auto and 50% metals tariffs; that is his claim, not an official statement. Whether the fourth round took place is not stated. Canada. The "new tariff announcement" is context, not a window measure. Per Benesch, three proclamations of Jul 20, 2026 set an additional 50% under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on Canada-origin motor vehicle, alcohol and dairy goods, effective Aug 19. They exclude energy, potash and goods already under Section 232, but apply to USMCA-qualifying goods. According to RVIA, the product scope changed at 12:01 a.m. on Sep 15 after a Sep 8 announcement, and the duty stacks on Section 232. Canada's Finance Department listed 874 items worth C$27.6 billion, at 15%, 25% or 50%, effective Sep 8. Rio Times (Oct 15) says the US applies 50% to roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods. No new Canada measure dated Sep 24–Oct 23 appears in the material.

Because Section 338 applies regardless of USMCA status, the agreement is the baseline while the US acts outside it.

4.3 Europe, Switzerland and India

EU. The 2025 framework (announced Aug 21, 2025; Executive Order 14346 of Sep 5; Federal Register notice Sep 25) set a flat 15% on most EU exports and kept steel, aluminum and copper at 50%, with the EU to remove tariffs on US industrial goods. That is context. The material has no October 2026 EU–US implementation notice, so we use Airlift's Oct 8 snapshot, which shows a Section 301 forced-labor duty, in force since Jul 24, 2026, that tops EU goods up to 10% in total, with 43 exempt HTS lines. EU cars and parts, patented drugs and upholstered furniture pay 15% in total under Section 232, and steel and aluminum pay 50% with no EU partner rate. The 15% IEEPA tariff has not been collected since Feb 24, 2026. On Oct 21 PwC reported that the Court of International Trade heard a challenge, by four small businesses and 25 states, to the Section 301 tariffs on 60 partners including the EU, with a ruling expected "in the coming weeks" (see Chapter 2).

EY reports "substantial agreement" between the EU and the Philippines on FTA talks. According to yesstainless.com, an aggregator, Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 made melt-and-pour origin reporting mandatory for steel imports from Oct 1, 2026, with a 50% out-of-quota duty against 25% before.

Partner (Airlift, Oct 5–8) Section 301 duty, in force Jul 24, 2026 Country-only exempt list Patented drugs, Section 232 Source
EU Top-up to 10% 43 HTS lines 15% Airlift
Switzerland Top-up to 12.5% 134 HTS lines 15% Airlift
India 10% added Not stated Not stated Airlift

Switzerland. The IEEPA tariff was 39% from Aug 7, 2025 and 15% in total from Nov 14, 2025, and has not been collected since Feb 24, 2026. No US–Swiss agreement text is in the material; the PwC page filed under that title shows only a general round-up. It does show a 15% cap on patented drugs from Switzerland "under the trade agreements" and Switzerland's place among 19 jurisdictions eligible for zero-rate specialty-drug categories under BIS guidance of Sep 23. USAFacts puts the Swiss average effective rate at 3.2% in Aug 2026 against 6.9% for all imports, 4.1 points below Aug 2025 (implied 3.2 + 4.1 = 7.3%).

India. The February 2026 framework would cut the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% in return for Indian concessions. AP says the rate "was reduced to 18%". We follow Airlift: the IEEPA duties have not been collected since Feb 24, and India pays a 10% Section 301 duty plus its ordinary duty; the framework is "not yet in force". In October the tone was mixed. Finance Minister Sitharaman said talks had "plateaued", USTR Greer said an announcement was not "imminent", and Commerce Minister Goyal said the first tranche was in its final stages but would operate only once India gains an edge over peers. On Oct 20 Rubio said "a small number of items" remained and the leaders could sign afterward. Moneycontrol (Oct 21) headlines that the US may offer India better terms than peers.

India is closest, but only as a statement; the EU and Switzerland have rates but no new text in the window.

5. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties

Chapter 4 covered negotiated deals and framework announcements. This chapter covers the other track: case-by-case trade remedies, which run under separate statutes and court review and move on fixed procedural calendars.

5.1 Case table: what moved in the window

"Alleged" means a petitioner's figure, not a Commerce or MOFCOM rate. Dates marked "est." are law-firm schedules, not agency orders.

Product Country Authority Stage (date) Rate or finding Next date
Amine compounds China ITC / Commerce, AD+CVD Petition 29 Sep; ITC preliminary phase (window) Alleged AD 261.34–476.13%; CVD "above de minimis" ITC vote 13 Nov (est.)
Crystalline silicon PV cells India, Indonesia, Laos ITC, then Commerce ITC final, affirmative, 14 Oct (window) Injury found; Commerce final rates set 11 Sep (context) Orders ~2 Nov; ITC report by 23 Nov
Seamless pipe (SSLPP) Georgia (AD); India (AD+CVD) Commerce / ITC Petition 14 Oct (window) Alleged AD Georgia 113.87–281.24%, India 41.03–63.57% Initiation 3 Nov (est.)
Wooden fence pickets; railway tank cars China; Mexico Commerce / ITC Petitions 24 Sep; 30 Sep (window) Not stated in the material Not stated
Chassis, subassemblies China (Vietnam-made scope) Court of International Trade Remand 7 Oct (window) Scope ruling rejected Redetermination due 5 Jan 2027
Chassis; diamond sawblades China ITC Sunset reviews, affirmative, 21 Oct (window) Orders stay in place Reports by 27 Nov / 25 Nov
Hot-rolled steel flat Japan Commerce Final review results 14 Oct (window) NSC 13.96%; Tokyo Steel 0% Not stated
p-Nitrotoluene EU MOFCOM Initiated 3 Oct (window) No duty; alleged margin above 100% Conclude by 3 Oct 2027

Most numbers in this month's remedy news are allegations or estimated dates. Only the solar investigations and one steel review carry final Commerce rates, and the solar orders had not been published in the sources.

5.2 US cases

Amine compounds (China). Evonik Corporation and Huntsman International LLC filed AD and CVD petitions on 29 Sep 2026. The ITC instituted its preliminary phase (Inv. Nos. 701-TA-808 and 731-TA-1809) in a notice published 5 Oct 2026, 91 FR 63307. The goods are polyurethane-foam catalysts, used mostly in spray insulation, according to Clark Hill. The schedule runs ITC conference 20 Oct, briefs 23 Oct, vote 13 Nov, Commerce preliminary CVD 23 Dec 2026, preliminary AD 8 Mar 2027 (all est.). Commerce initiation was expected 19 Oct; the material does not confirm it happened. No cash deposit applies yet.

The petition's import table (Datamyne and USITC DataWeb) gives unit values we computed (value ÷ quantity):

Period Quantity (1,000 lbs) Value (USD) Unit value (USD/lb)
2023 31,763 315,122,427 9.92
2024 45,447 407,463,195 8.97
2025 42,104 277,130,659 6.58
Jan–Jun 2026 24,502 143,633,056 5.86

Unit value fell (9.92 − 5.86) ÷ 9.92 ≈ 41% from 2023 to H1 2026. Solar (India, Indonesia, Laos). On 14 Oct 2026 the ITC voted affirmative in the final injury phase (Inv. Nos. 701-TA-772-774 and 731-TA-1756-1758). Commerce's final determinations came on 11 Sep 2026, before the window. According to pv magazine, the final rates are:

Country AD (all producers) CVD Sum of highest
India 123.04% 126.09% 249.13%
Indonesia 94.36% 73.2–173.7% 268.06%
Laos 65.43% 82.03–153.67% 219.10%

Sums use the top CVD rate, so they are ceilings. Petitioners' counsel Tim Brightbill (Wiley Rein) expects Commerce orders on 2 Nov; pv magazine says "early November". The ITC report is due 23 Nov. Chassis: court and sunset. In Pitts Enterprises v. United States, Slip Op. 26-121 (7 Oct 2026), Judge Kelly again remanded Commerce's ruling that Vietnam-made chassis with Chinese parts fall under the China orders. According to a law-firm blog, the court found no "unfinished subassembly" category and held that welding is not "any other processing". The China-wide deposits of 177.05% AD and 44.32% CVD (sum 221.37%, "roughly 221%") stay; Commerce's redetermination is due 5 Jan 2027, and the decision is not final. On 21 Oct the ITC found revocation of the China chassis orders and the diamond sawblade AD order likely to bring back injury, so both stay.

Reviews. On 14 Oct Commerce published final Japan hot-rolled results (review period 1 Oct 2023–30 Sep 2024). One sentence of the notice attributes 13.96% to Tokyo Steel, whose margin it gives as zero; we follow NSC. Preliminary review results for Korean and Taiwanese corrosion-resistant steel and Malaysian nails were published on 8 and 14 Oct; their rates are not in the material.

5.3 Non-US cases

China v. EU p-nitrotoluene. MOFCOM Announcement No. 44 of 2026 opened an AD investigation on 3 Oct 2026, after a 14 Sep application by Jiangsu Huaihe Chemical and Hubei Dongfang Chemical. The notice text is not in the material. Per Foresight, the product is Chinese tariff code 29042020; the dumping period is 1 Jul 2025–30 Jun 2026 and the injury period 1 Jan 2022–30 Jun 2026. Registration closed 23 Oct (20 days). MOFCOM expects to finish by 3 Oct 2027, extendable six months. No provisional or definitive duty exists.

MOFCOM says EU prices fell nearly 60% cumulatively over 2022–2025; the alleged margin above 100% comes from the applicants. The trade is small. Geopolitechs reports EU imports of 6,565 t in 2025 (about $3.66 million, 7.14% of Chinese demand) against 9,817 t in 2024, a fall of (9,817 − 6,565) ÷ 9,817 ≈ 33%. The spokesperson tied the case to 28 EU remedy investigations against China since 2025, about half on chemicals. Gap. The blueprint also named Brazil's reviews of Chinese magnesium; no source in the material covers them, so they are left out.

6. Trade data and supply-chain shift

Chapter 5 covered the remedy cases that target specific products; this chapter steps back to the aggregate numbers that show where goods are actually moving. Two official data sets landed in the window: the WTO outlook (Oct 8, 2026) and the BEA/Census August trade release (Oct 6, 2026). UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report (release date not stated in the material) adds a development view, and a PIIE blog questions whether the US import figures for China can be trusted.

6.1 Data table: indicators, periods and basis

Indicator Value Period Source Basis
World merchandise trade volume growth, forecast 3.9% (March: 1.9%) 2026 WTO Volume; forecast (estimate)
Same, next year 4.1% 2027 WTO Volume; forecast (estimate)
World merchandise trade, actual +15% value; +3.5% volume H1 2026, year on year WTO Current US dollars vs volume
AI-enabling goods share of value growth 47% H1 2026 WTO Value; WTO's revised, narrower HS6 list
US goods and services deficit $105.6B (July revised: $92.8B) Aug 2026 BEA/Census Balance of payments, seasonally adjusted
US goods and services imports $420.8B, record Aug 2026 BEA/Census Same
US goods deficit with Mexico / Vietnam / China $27.7B / $24.0B / $16.4B Aug 2026 BEA/Census Census basis, seasonally adjusted
US imports from Mexico / Vietnam $60.6B / $26.5B, both records Aug 2026 BEA/Census Census basis, not seasonally adjusted
US-reported imports from China (incl. Hong Kong) vs China-reported exports to US $158.3B vs $258.1B Jan–Jul 2026 PIIE, citing Census and Chinese data Two national statistics
Average US effective tariff rate on China / all countries 22.8% / 6.9% Aug 2026 USAFacts Duties collected ÷ import value
Global trade growth, goods and services about 4% 2026 UNCTAD Constant prices; projection (estimate)

The two US country series differ by basis. The text of the release gives the deficit with Mexico as $27.7B and with Vietnam as $24.0B, while the "press highlights" list $27.0B and $25.0B as record deficits on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis. We use the seasonally adjusted figures for rankings and the highlights for "record" claims.

6.2 WTO outlook: AI goods carry the recovery

The WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" update of Oct 8, 2026 lifted 2026 merchandise volume growth to 3.9% from 1.9% in March, and expects 4.1% in 2027 (up from 2.9%, per AP). Commercial services were cut to 3.3% from 4.8%. The 2027 figures depend on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict. All growth figures are forecasts (estimate); the first-half 2026 outturn was +3.5% in volume.

AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers, grew 16% in value in 2024, 31% in 2025 and 67% in H1 2026. They supplied 47% of the rise in world merchandise trade value while being under 15% of trade; ActuIA gives the share as 14.8%. As a consistency check (editor's calculation, rounded inputs), a 14.8% share after 67% growth, in a total that grew 15%, implies a H1 2025 share of 0.148 × 1.15 ÷ 1.67 ≈ 10.2%, and a contribution of 0.102 × 0.67 ÷ 0.15 ≈ 46%, close to the published 47%.

Two cautions. First, value is not volume: the 15% value gain against 3.5% volume implies a price effect of about 1.15 ÷ 1.035 − 1 ≈ 11% (editor's estimate; inputs). The WTO also cites ECB estimates that AI-goods import prices rose 20–30% in H1 2026, according to ActuIA. Second, the 47% cannot be re-derived outside the WTO: the revised HS6 list is not reproduced in the report, according to ActuIA. UNCTAD uses a different yardstick: AI goods were about one sixth of goods trade in 2025 and 42% of its growth. Different year and definition, so we treat 42% and 47% as consistent, not as a revision.

Regional contributions to 2026 merchandise growth are Asia 4.0, North America about 0.5, Europe 0.1 and other regions −0.7 percentage points. These sum to 4.0 + 0.5 + 0.1 − 0.7 = 3.9 (editor's check), so Asia supplies 4.0 ÷ 3.9 ≈ 103% of world growth. Export growth is forecast at 9.9% for Asia and −0.1% for Europe. On AI goods, ActuIA reports Taiwan (14.7%) and China (14.3%) as top exporters in H1 2026, together 29.0%. The WTO names the risk itself: a reversal of AI investment "could also have a significant impact on trade".

The 2026 trade recovery is narrow. AI-enabling goods were under 15% of trade but supplied 47% of its value growth in H1 2026, and Asia supplies more than all of the forecast volume growth (WTO, Oct 8, 2026).

6.3 US import origins and evasion

BEA/Census, Oct 6, 2026 (August data). The deficit rose $12.7B (13.7%) to $105.6B as imports rose $17.2B to a record $420.8B. Check: goods deficit $136.6B − services surplus $31.0B = $105.6B. July goods imports were revised up $4.4B. Capital goods imports hit a record $146.4B, with semiconductors up $2.4B. Year to date the deficit is still $138.2B (19.9%) below the same period of 2025, but the gain was 33.8% through June, as first published on Aug 4. The next release is Nov 4, 2026 (upcoming).

By origin, Mexico ($27.7B) and Vietnam ($24.0B) together ran a deficit of $51.7B, which is 51.7 ÷ 16.4 ≈ 3.2 times the deficit with China ($16.4B); India's was $6.2B. This is one month, and the material does not give the China import level or any change against 2025, so it shows ranking, not displacement. A Research Square preprint (posted Oct 9, 2026; peer-review status not stated) warns against reading Mexican growth as diversion. In its 2015–2025 data on the 2018–19 Section 301 tariffs, Latin American suppliers of tariffed products fell about 27% relative to other non-Chinese suppliers, and Mexico grew by a similar amount in tariffed and untariffed products. Fisher Investments (date not stated) says about 80% of US imports from Mexico were USMCA-exempt, up from under 50% in 2024, without a source in the material.

The full ranking of August deficits (seasonally adjusted, goods and services) is Mexico $27.7B, Vietnam $24.0B, Taiwan $18.3B, China $16.4B, the European Union $11.0B, South Korea $9.4B, Canada $7.1B and India $6.2B. It is a ranking of bilateral balances, not a measure of where production moved.

Evasion. The PIIE (Gregory Auclair; publication date not stated, data through July 2026) finds that Census recorded $158.3B of imports from China in January–July 2026, while China reported $258.1B of exports to the US. The $99.8B gap is 99.8 ÷ 158.3 ≈ 63% of US-recorded imports, nearly five times its 2021–24 average. Annualising, 99.8 ÷ 7 × 12 ≈ $171B, matching PIIE's "exceed $170 billion" projection (estimate). PIIE concludes the drop in US-recorded imports from China "should not be treated as a clean measure" of decoupling or tariff effectiveness. The Coalition for a Prosperous America, an advocacy group, estimates a $70B gap over 13 months from April 2025 between statutory and collected duty on Chinese goods: $4B (4 ÷ 70 ≈ 6%) evasion and $66B structural leakage. It separately flags $14B of $75B diverted trade (19%) as consistent with transshipment, $9B of it via ASEAN (estimate; report date not stated). The two views differ on scale, not direction.

UNCTAD (report date not stated) reports China–US trade down more than 20% since 2024, with East Asia expanding trade with both China and North America. The USAFacts effective rate for China was 22.8% in August 2026 against 30.6% in 2025.

7. What companies should do

Chapters 2–6 set out tariffs, the summit, agreements, remedies and trade data. This chapter turns them into action points and a dated watch-list. It uses only facts from earlier chapters and describes, rather than gives legal advice.

7.1 Action points by situation

Situation Action Deadline Evidence
Paid IEEPA duties Check eligibility and file through CBP's CAPE; fix missing bank details, since $1.1B across 20,362 refunds was on hold on Oct 2 CAPE Phase 3 open from Oct 6 —
Imports from China covered by Section 301 exclusions Plan for the 178 exclusion lines ending after Nov 9, 2026; no extension announced Nov 9, 2026 (last covered day) —
Metal-intensive goods from Canada or Mexico Document U.S. content: 25% applies to non-U.S. content with a 15% floor under BIS's Oct 14 notice In effect from Oct 14 —
Patented pharmaceuticals Check the 100% general, 15% (EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland) and 0% (UK) rates and any pricing-agreement route Final phase from Sep 29 —
US–China supply chains Treat the $30B-each-way cuts as announced, not implemented; plan to the extended truce date Jan 10, 2027 —
Chinese amine compounds, solar, chassis Watch the ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds, solar orders, and the chassis redetermination Nov 13, 2026; about Nov 2; Jan 5, 2027 —

7.2 What changed, in rates

Category Measure Rate Status
Most goods Section 301 forced-labor action 10% or 12.5% tier In effect since Jul 24
Steel and aluminum Section 232 50% (Annex I-A); 25% (Annex I-B) In effect since Apr 6
Patented pharmaceuticals Section 232 100% general; 15%; UK 0% In effect, final phase Sep 29
China, goods on the cut lists Summit recommendation About $30B each way Announced, not implemented
Whole economy Effective rate (Penn Wharton) 7.1% overall; China 24.3% Reported, Aug 2026

The tariff wall is now product and country specific; use the refund, exclusion and content rules to manage cost, and treat summit cuts as pending until published.

7.3 Key dates

Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked "In effect".

Date Event State on Oct 24, 2026 Source
Oct 6, 2026 CAPE Phase 3 opens In effect StartBusinessByState
Oct 8, 2026 Class certified in Freestyle World; WTO forecast published In effect Troutman Pepper Locke; WTO
Oct 14, 2026 BIS "U.S. content" notice; ITC final affirmative on solar In effect Diaz Trade Law; USITC
About Nov 2, 2026 Solar duty orders expected Upcoming Utility Dive
Nov 4, 2026 Next BEA and Census trade release Upcoming BEA
Nov 9, 2026 Section 301 exclusions' last covered day; ship-fee pause ends unless extended Upcoming Argents; DSCP
Nov 10, 2026 Original truce expiry, extended to Jan 10, 2027 Announced extension MOFCOM via Global Times
Nov 13, 2026 ITC preliminary vote on amine compounds (estimated) Upcoming Law-firm summary
Dec 4, 2026 Polysilicon Section 232 measure Scheduled Airlift USA
Jan 5, 2027 Chassis redetermination due Upcoming CIT
Jan 12, 2027 USMCA review comments due Upcoming GHY

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