September's hikes are done and the open question is timing: October is priced out and December priced in
Between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026, rates news was about timing, not direction. Central banks had raised rates in September, energy pushed inflation up, and markets spent the month deciding whether another Fed hike would come on Oct 28 or later. The Fed, ECB, BoC and RBNZ decisions fall in the week of Oct 26, and their outcomes are unknown at the run date.
Five conclusions
September was a tightening month, and October is a pause on the calendar
The Fed raised its target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep 16 on a 12–0 vote, the ECB lifted its deposit rate to 2.50% on Sep 10, and the Bank of Japan went to about 1.25% on Sep 18. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and the Bank of Canada at 2.25%. The Fed, ECB, BoC and RBNZ decisions fall in the week of Oct 26, with outcomes unknown at the run date.
The Fed signals more hikes but gives no date
The Oct 7 minutes say most participants saw room for one more hike by year-end, and the September projections put the median at 4.1% for end-2026, with 16 of 18 expecting at least one more hike. Chair Warsh said on Oct 16 “I don't prejudge meetings”, and Williams said on Sep 29 there is “no need for urgency”.
Energy drove headline inflation, and hiring cooled
US CPI for September was 3.7% with core at 2.6%, PPI was 6.3%, and payrolls rose only 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.0%, so real pay growth is 3.0 − 3.7 = −0.7 pp. Euro-area inflation reached 3.8% and UK inflation 3.5%, both above their core rates.
Markets priced out October and priced in December
The futures-implied chance of an October hike fell from 72% on Sep 24 to 16% on Oct 21, and prediction markets gave 8% on Oct 23, against 72% for a Dec 9 hike. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.79% and the 10-year 5.12% on Oct 20, after a 5.34% closing high on Sep 30. All of these are market-implied probabilities and observed yields, not forecasts by us.
The dollar, yields and gold moved with hike odds
The dollar index hit 101.848 on Oct 1, EUR/USD fell to 1.1114 on Oct 14 after the hot CPI, and USD/JPY closed at 158.29 on Oct 20. Gold slid to $4,119.37 on Oct 21, about 12% below its August peak, as oil-driven hike bets returned.
Rates and data at a glance
| Item | Value | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target range | 3.75%–4.00% (+25 bp, 12–0) | Sep 16, 2026 | In effect | Benigno; Quartz |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.50% | Sep 10 (effective Sep 16) | In effect | Admirals |
| BoJ overnight call rate | about 1.25% (7–2) | Sep 18 | In effect | Forexuro |
| BoE Bank Rate / BoC overnight rate | 3.75% / 2.25% (holds) | Sep 17 / Sep 2 | In effect | Forexuro; WOWA |
| US CPI, Sep (core) | 3.7% y/y (2.6%) | Oct 14 | Released | BLS via CNBC |
| US PPI, Sep | 6.3% y/y | Oct 15 | Released | BLS via Trading Economics |
| US payrolls, Sep (unemployment) | +29,000 (4.2%) | Oct 2 | Released | BLS |
| Oct 28 FOMC: hold / hike | 92% / 8% | Oct 23, 12:02 PM ET | Implied probabilityDecision upcoming | DeFi Rate |
| Dec 9 FOMC: hike | 72% | Oct 23, 12:02 PM ET | Implied probability | DeFi Rate |
| US 2-year / 10-year Treasury yield | 4.79% / 5.12% | Oct 20 | Observed | FRED |
September was a tightening month: the Fed, ECB and BoJ each raised by 25 bp, and the Fed's chair gives no date
The Fed, ECB and BoJ each raised rates by 25 bp, while the BoE and BoC held. For October the reported signals concern timing, not direction: the Fed and ECB lean toward patience, and the BoC is where forecasters split. No outcome is known for any meeting after Oct 23.
Decisions at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target range | 3.75%–4.00%, +25 bp, vote 12–0 | Decided Sep 16, 2026 | In effect | Fed minutes (via Quartz); Benigno |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.50% (refinancing 2.65%, lending 2.90%) | Decided Sep 10; effective Sep 16 | In effect | ECB (via Admirals) |
| BoJ overnight call rate | about 1.25%, +25 bp, vote 7–2 | Sep 18, 2026 | In effect | Forexuro; Vantage |
| BoE Bank Rate | 3.75%, held 6–3 (three voted for 4.00%) | Sep 17, 2026 | In effect | Forexuro |
| BoC overnight rate | 2.25%, hold | Sep 2, 2026 | In effect | Broker Alarab; WOWA |
| RBA / RBNZ / SNB | 4.60% / 2.75% / 0% | Sep 29 / Sep 2 / Sep 24 | In effect | Forexuro |
| Next decisions | Fed, BoC, RBNZ Oct 28; ECB Oct 29; BoJ Oct 30; RBA Nov 3; BoE Nov 5 | After Oct 23 | Scheduled, outcome unknown | Forexuro; Admirals |
What each bank said
The FOMC raised the target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on a 12–0 vote, the first increase since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Both bounds rose from 3.50%–3.75%, ending five straight holds. Nineteen officials attend meetings but only 12 vote, so this page follows the recorded 12–0.
Published on Oct 7 at 2:00 p.m. EDT: most participants saw room for one more hike by year-end, with no predetermined path, and “many” called a higher path “prudent on risk-management grounds”.
On Oct 16 in Bangkok Warsh said “I don't prejudge meetings” and, of forward guidance, “we're not in that business anymore”. Williams (Sep 29): “no need for urgency”. Jefferson (Oct 1): the Fed may be patient. Waller expects hikes with “some flexibility about when”. CNBC warns markets may be complacent about October.
Median end-2027 is 4.1% (June: 3.6%) and median PCE inflation for end-2026 is 3.7% (June: 3.6%). A 4.1% median is about one more hike: (3.75 + 4.00) ÷ 2 = 3.875%, plus 0.25 = 4.125%. Warsh submitted no projections. Source: U.S. Money Reserve, summarising the Fed's projections.
Decisions follow three criteria: the inflation outlook, underlying inflation and transmission. She sees “no signs of a significant pass-through” of energy prices to other prices and wages, and said higher long-term rates “will slow growth” more than projected in September.
The ECB chief economist said: “we are not on a pre-committed rate path”.
Oct 29 at 14:15 CET, with no new staff projections until Dec 17. Morningstar says most analysts expect no change in October and a possible hike on Dec 17. ING estimates the rise in Bund yields equals an extra 25 bp of tightening (estimate).
| Meeting | Move | Deposit rate after |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | Hold | 2.00% |
| Jun 11 | +0.25 pt | 2.25% |
| Jul 23 | Hold | 2.25% |
| Sep 10 | +0.25 pt | 2.50% |
Source: Admirals, citing the ECB. One source gives this path.
The call rate is about 1.25% after a 25 bp hike on a 7–2 vote. Benigno says the rate is up 50 bp since January, a 1995 high, so it began the year at 1.25 − 0.50 = 0.75%.
Underlying inflation is “quite close” to 2%, and raising rates at an appropriate pace avoids bond-yield spikes.
Oct 30. Reuters (via TMGM) says many expect a hold on Oct 30, with a December hike to 1.5% left open.
Bank Rate is 3.75% after a 6–3 hold, with three of nine members voting for 4.00%. BNP Paribas (estimate) expects one “insurance” hike in November. The next decision is Nov 5, outcome unknown.
The rate has been 2.25% since October 2025, and Sep 2 was the seventh straight hold; Governor Macklem then said inflation risks were rising. UBS (October and January), Manulife and Oxford Economics (October and December) and Scotiabank (October) forecast hikes, while RBC (estimate) expects a hold through 2026. Two 25 bp hikes would reach 2.75%, the midpoint of the 2.25%–3.25% neutral range.
Energy lifted headline inflation almost everywhere while core stayed lower, and US hiring slowed to +29,000
The September data released between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026 are what the decisions in module 2 will be judged against. Market pricing is in module 4.
Data releases at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI, Sep | 3.7% y/y (3.6% / 3.4%); core 2.6% | Oct 14 | Released | BLS via CNBC |
| US PPI, Sep | 6.3% y/y (5.3% / 5.6%) | Oct 15 | Released | BLS via Trading Economics |
| US payrolls, Sep | +29,000 (+84,000); unemployment 4.2% | Oct 2 | Released | BLS; CNBC |
| US PCE, Aug | 3.4% y/y (July 3.7%) | Sep 30 | Released | Quartz |
| Euro-area HICP, Sep | 3.8% y/y (Aug 3.2%) | Oct 16 (flash Oct 2) | Final | Eurostat |
| UK CPI, Sep | 3.5% y/y (Aug 3.1%) | Oct 21 | Released | ONS |
| Japan CPI, Sep | 2.1% y/y (2.1% / 1.9%) | Date not stated | Released | investingLive |
| US jobs report, Oct | Due 8:30 a.m. ET | Nov 6 | Scheduled | BLS |
Figures in brackets are consensus and prior where stated.
What the data show
September CPI rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, against a Dow Jones consensus of 0.6% and 3.6%. Core rose 0.3% and 2.6%, against 0.2% and 2.5%. August had been 3.4% and 2.4%. Headline minus core is 3.7 − 2.6 = 1.1 pp.
The energy index rose 5.2% on the month, and gasoline rose 9.1% seasonally adjusted, up 34.2% on the year. Shelter rose 0.4% on the month and 3.2% on the year.
Final demand rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, against a 5.3% consensus: 6.3 − 5.3 = 1.0 pp above, and the largest 12-month rise since 6.4% in December 2022. By component, year on year: goods 9.8%, services 4.9%, energy 35.4% (BLS).
August PCE inflation was 3.4% (July 3.7%), core 3.0%, on the official release. The minutes quoted staff estimates of 3.8% and 3.4%; this page follows the official figures.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000, against 84,000 expected, a shortfall of 55,000. Unemployment was 4.2% (7.1 million people), inside a 4.1%–4.3% range since March. Revisions cut July from +21,000 to −10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000, a combined −60,000.
Health care added 17,000, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, while government fell 17,000. The household survey was firmer: participation rose 0.2 pp to 61.8%, and the broad U-6 measure fell to 7.6%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% to $37.81 and are up 3.0% on the year, against 3.1% expected. With CPI at 3.7%, real pay growth is 3.0 − 3.7 = −0.7 pp. The October report is due Friday, Nov 6, after the Oct 27–28 FOMC (scheduled).
Inflation was 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August and 2.2% a year earlier. Contributions: energy +1.71 pp, services +1.52 pp, non-energy industrial goods +0.29 pp, food, alcohol and tobacco +0.25 pp, which sum to 3.77 pp. Energy ran at 18.9%, services at 3.2%, and core at 2.5%, matching consensus. Italy rose to 4.2% and France to 3.4%.
CPI was 3.5%, up from 3.1% in August (+0.4 pp), with core at 2.8% and services at 3.7% (August 3.4%). Motor fuels made the largest upward contribution. The next release is Nov 18.
National CPI was 2.1% (consensus 2.1%, prior 1.9%). Core, excluding fresh food, was 2.1% (prior 1.7%), and core-core, excluding food and energy, was 2.4% (consensus 2.3%). Core is above the BoJ's 2% target for the first time in nine months (Trading Economics). The release date is not stated.
Headline versus core, September 2026
| Economy | Headline | Core | Gap (pp) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1 | Oct 14 |
| Euro area | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3 | Oct 16 |
| UK | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.7 | Oct 21 |
| Japan | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.0 | not stated |
The Fed's October hike went from favourite to long shot while December took over, all as market-implied probabilities
Module 3 ended on a hot September CPI (3.7% on the year) and a weak payroll print (+29,000). This module shows how rate markets traded those two releases. Every probability below is a market-implied price with its timestamp, not our forecast.
October hike odds at the daily close
Percent chance of an October quarter-point hike at the daily close (about 8 p.m. ET), Sep 20 to Oct 21, 2026 · implied probability · source: PredictionMarketsPicks. Polymarket was not captured on Sep 24 and Sep 28.
Reading the swing
| Date | Close | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 72% | Futures peak close (Kalshi peak 69% on Sep 28) |
| Oct 1 | 26% | Three sessions, 42 points, “no single catalyst”; CNBC quotes Baird's Ross Mayfield on softer PCE and dovish Fed remarks |
| Oct 2 | 20% | Soft September jobs report |
| Oct 7 | 18% | FOMC minutes; price barely moves |
| Oct 14 | 30% | Hot September CPI; intraday highs 47.5% (Kalshi), 52% (futures) |
| Oct 16 | 18% | Warsh: “I don't prejudge meetings” |
| Oct 21 | 16% | Seven days before the decision |
Futures fell 72 − 16 = 56 points from Sep 24 to Oct 21. Timestamps matter: on CPI day intraday readings of the October hike were 41.5% at 12:20 PM ET (CME FedWatch, via Yahoo Finance), about 50% (Axios) and about 54% (CNBC), yet every venue closed at 29%–30%. This page uses daily closes because they are comparable.
The decision is due Wednesday, Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET with no new projections. The meeting falls six days before the Nov 3 election; UBS's Simon Penn called an election-eve hike “politically untenable” on Sep 29 (reported analyst view).
On Oct 23 at 12:02 PM ET prediction markets priced a Dec 9 hike at 72% (Kalshi 71.5%, Polymarket 73.0%) and at least one more hike in 2026 at 79% (Kalshi 80.5%, Polymarket 77.5%). Only two meetings remain (Oct 28 and Dec 9), so 79% should lie between 72% and 8% + 72% = 80%, and it does.
A Motley Fool article dated Oct 22 cites CME FedWatch at 91% for a December hike, 91 − 72 = 19 points above the prediction markets, and the material does not explain the gap. This page follows the time-stamped 72% and reads 91% as the upper end. On Oct 14 Polymarket gave 66% for exactly two 2026 hikes and 21.7% for exactly three, so “at least one more” was 66 + 21.7 = 87.7%, though the contract wordings differ.
On Sep 16 the median participant saw 4.1% at end-2026 and end-2027. The material has no market-derived terminal rate. Bank of America's Oct 23 interview is headlined “Fed to raise rates twice more in 2026”; with only two meetings left, this page reads hikes at both. The interview text is truncated.
| Source | Call | Implied end-point |
|---|---|---|
| RBC Economics | Hikes in Dec and Mar 2027; 75 bp in total including September | 4.25%–4.50% |
| BNP Paribas Wealth Management | Hikes in Dec and Jan, after the midterms | 3.75%–4.00% + 2 × 25 bp = 4.25%–4.50% |
| Capital Economics, via Yahoo Finance | Two more quarter-point hikes | 4.25%–4.50% |
| UBS, Sep 29 | December, not October; size not stated | not stated |
| Trading Economics model | 4.25% by end of quarter; 4.00% in 2028 | upper bound 4.25% |
All rows are estimates; implied end-points are our arithmetic.
Long yields stayed above 5% and the front end priced hikes not yet delivered, while other banks' pricing points to holds and a BoE hike
Treasury yields are observed market data; the pricing for the ECB, BoJ, BoE and BoC is implied probability from prediction markets, and swap rates show where the front end sits. None of these is our forecast.
Yields, pricing and swap curves
Level on Oct 20, 2026 minus the level a year earlier; change in bp is our arithmetic. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED.
| Series | Oct 20 | Previous obs. | Year earlier | Change (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective fed funds | 3.88% | 3.88% | 4.11% | −23 |
| 3-month | 4.26% | 4.27% | 3.96% | +30 |
| 1-year | 4.51% | 4.50% | 3.56% | +95 |
| 2-year | 4.79% | 4.77% | 3.45% | +134 |
| 5-year | 4.94% | 4.94% | 3.56% | +138 |
| 10-year | 5.12% | 5.15% | 3.98% | +114 |
| 30-year | 5.42% | 5.48% | 4.55% | +87 |
| 10-year TIPS (real) | 2.77% | 2.80% | 1.70% | +107 |
The 10-year closed at 5.34% on Sep 30, the highest since 2002 (a Senate Banking Committee letter of Oct 7 citing FRED), 5.24% on Oct 9 and 5.12% on Oct 20. Intraday highs were higher: 5.3645% on Oct 7 and 5.35% on Oct 8. For closes this page follows the H.15 series.
Brown Advisory cites the New York Fed ACM term premium at 95 bp on Oct 8. The same Senate letter, citing Mortgage News Daily, puts the 30-year mortgage at 7.57% on Oct 2 against 5.99% on Feb 27, up 1.58 points (the letter is advocacy).
| Contract | Outcome | Probability | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB (Oct 29) | No change | 97% | About Oct 19–20 (date not stated) | Polymarket |
| BoJ (Oct 29–30) | No change | 97% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
| BoJ (December) | 25 bp hike | 72% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
| BoE (Nov 5) | 25 bp hike | 95% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
| BoE (December) | No change | 60% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
| BoC (Oct 28) | 25 bp hike | 83% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
| BoC (Oct 28) | 25 bp hike (hold 17%) | 81% | Oct 22 | DeFi Rate (Kalshi) |
| BoC (December) | No change | 52% | Same snapshot | Polymarket |
All rows are implied probabilities; the decisions on Oct 28, Oct 29, Oct 30 and Nov 5 are upcoming and no outcome is stated. The Polymarket page carries no crawl date, and its countdowns place it near Oct 19–20.
ECB Watch futures implied about 60% for an Oct 29 hike on Sep 24, against Polymarket's roughly 3% (100 − 97) now, a fall of roughly 57 points across two sources, so direction only. ING's Carsten Brzeski estimates the rise in German yields since September equals an extra 25 bp hike, and 50 bp for France. For the BoJ in December, Investing.com says markets price “around 88–90%” (mid-October, date not stated) against Polymarket's 72%; both point to December.
BNP Paribas expects one “insurance” BoE hike in November, in line with the market's 95%. For Canada, Kalshi had a hike at 81% and a hold at 17% on Oct 22, while RBC Economics' base case, written after the Oct 2 jobs data, is a BoC hold through 2026, so market and economist are far apart.
| OIS rate | 2-year | 10-year | 10-year minus 2-year (bp) | 2-year minus policy rate (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (SOFR) | 4.68% | 4.80% | 12 | 68 (vs 4.00%, top of range) |
| UK (SONIA) | 4.68% | 4.91% | 23 | 93 (vs 3.75%) |
| Japan (TONA) | 1.90% | 2.88% | 98 | 65 (vs about 1.25%) |
| Switzerland (SARON) | 0.37% | 0.76% | 39 | 37 (vs 0%) |
Source for the rates: Gianluca Benigno, The Central Banks' Watcher. The edition is undated but cites the Oct 14 CPI, so it is from mid- or late October. Spreads and gaps to the policy rate are our arithmetic, with policy rates as in module 2.
The dollar, yields and gold moved with hike odds, while the yen was held in a band by intervention risk
Module 4 set out the hike odds that markets repriced all month; this module shows where that repricing landed between Sep 24 and Oct 23, 2026. When hike odds rose, the dollar and yields rose and the euro and gold fell; when Fed speakers softened them, the moves reversed.
Market moves at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.848, 16-month high | Oct 1 | Reported | Quartz (WSJ, LSEG) |
| DXY | 101.54, −0.13% (prior close 101.67) | Oct 22 | Reported | Long Forecast |
| EUR/USD (ECB fix) | 1.1403, then 1.1215 | Sep 25, Oct 20 | Official reference rate | Cambridge Currencies; ECB |
| EUR/USD low | 1.1114, 17-month low | Oct 14 | Reported | Vantage hourly feed |
| USD/JPY close | 158.29 | Oct 20 | Reported | Investing.com via Admirals |
| US 10-year yield | 5.344% intraday high, then 5.114% | Oct 1, Oct 20 | Reported | CNBC; Admirals |
| S&P 500 close | 7,666.45, +0.19% | Oct 1 | Reported | CNBC |
| S&P 500 / Russell 2000 | +1.17% / −0.90% | Week to Oct 9 | Reported | Krilogy |
| Credit (IG / HY returns) | +0.48% / +0.20% | Week to Oct 9 | Reported | Krilogy |
| Gold (spot) | $4,119.37 | Oct 21 | Reported | Reuters via Admirals |
Four markets, one driver
On Oct 1 the DXY reached 101.848 in European trade, a 16-month high, even though PCE inflation had just eased to 3.4% from 3.7%. According to Quartz, citing the Wall Street Journal and LSEG, ING's Chris Turner said the data “barely put a dent in Fed tightening expectations”. Admirals put the index at about 101.55 on Oct 20, the lowest since Oct 1, and Long Forecast shows 101.54 on Oct 22.
Sep 9 to Sep 24 is a fall of 2.4%, spanning the Fed's Sep 16 hike, and Sep 25 to Oct 20 a further 1.6%. The Sept CPI release on Oct 14 (core +0.30% against 0.20% forecast) pushed EUR/USD to 1.1114 and lifted October-hike odds from about 20% to about 50% (FXStreet, via Vantage); cautious Fed remarks lifted the pair to about 1.1269 by Oct 16. The Fed's 3.875% midpoint minus the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate is 1.375 points. This page follows ECB fixes for levels.
| Date | EUR/USD | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | 1.1652 | Cambridge Currencies |
| Sep 24 | 1.1367 | Cambridge Currencies |
| Sep 25 | 1.1403 | Cambridge Currencies |
| Oct 16 | 1.1253 | ECB via Cbonds |
| Oct 20 | 1.1215 | ECB |
The 1.1114 low on Oct 14 is a vendor feed (Vantage), reported; levels in this table are official fixes.
USD/JPY traded near 158.50, just below its 200-day moving average, through early October (MUFG, Oct 13) and closed at 158.29 on Oct 20. The market watches 160 although officials have never named it; the July joint US-Japan action followed a 163.988 peak on Jul 23, so 158.29 is 5.70 yen (3.5%) lower.
On Oct 15 the finance minister said Tokyo and Washington were ready to act again “without hesitation” (RoboForex via Investing.com). Against that, the Fed–BoJ midpoint gap is 3.875 − 1.25 = 2.625 points. The BoJ's next decision is Oct 30 (upcoming, no outcome stated); StoneX says Oct 28, and this page follows Admirals, which cites the BoJ schedule.
| Date | Level or amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23 | 163.988 | USD/JPY peak, reported |
| Oct 13 | near 158.50 | MUFG, reported |
| Oct 20 | 158.29 | Close, Investing.com via Admirals |
| Oct 20 | 158.13 | 177.34 / 1.1215 from ECB fixes, our arithmetic |
| Apr 30 | ¥6,278.7 bn | Record single-day yen buying, Ministry of Finance |
| Jul 30–Aug 26 | ¥15,399.3 bn | Yen bought, Ministry of Finance |
| Aug 27–Sep 28 | ¥0 | Yen bought, Ministry of Finance |
The S&P 500 added 0.19% to 7,666.45, the Nasdaq Composite 0.04% to 26,871.60 and the Dow 20.51 points to 50,926.56, as the 10-year yield retreated from an intraday 5.344% and the 2-year fell about 10 bp to 4.793%. CNBC noted stocks had been moving opposite to yields.
The S&P gained 1.17%, the Dow 0.96% and the Nasdaq 0.65%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.90%, down 5.7% over five weeks “amidst fears of rising interest rates” (Krilogy, citing fund-manager sources). The week ended with the 10-year at 5.24%, the 2-year at 4.79% and the 30-year at 5.60%.
Total returns do not show spreads, so this page cannot say whether spreads widened or narrowed.
| Measure | Move | Date |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.19% to 7,666.45 | Oct 1 |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.04% to 26,871.60 | Oct 1 |
| Dow | +20.51 points to 50,926.56 | Oct 1 |
| S&P 500 / Dow / Nasdaq | +1.17% / +0.96% / +0.65% | Week to Oct 9 |
| Russell 2000 | −0.90% | Week to Oct 9 |
| US Aggregate / IG / HY | +0.39% / +0.48% / +0.20% | Week to Oct 9 |
Spot at $4,119.37 on Oct 21 (05:16 GMT) is about 12% below the late-August peak near $4,700: 4,119.37 / 4,700 − 1 = −12.4%. Admirals ties the slide to Brent near $110 (Oct 20: $109.55), which keeps inflation and Fed hikes alive, so the safe haven is “not working in a Fed hiking cycle” (interpretation).
On Oct 14 a gold-tracking fund closed at $4,112 (−1.04%) and a silver fund fell 5.51% to $55.74 (Rio Times); this differs from the −1.5% spot figure because the instruments differ. On Oct 16 December futures opened at $4,192.10 (Yahoo Finance). FXEmpire notes the 10-year real yield fell from 2.88% (Oct 13) to 2.77% (Oct 20), 11 bp, yet gold still fell, which it blames on Middle East tension, with $4,000 the key support.
| Date (2026) | Driver | Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Late Aug | Peak | near $4,700 |
| Sep 28 | October hike odds 70.3% (Admirals) after a rejected Iranian peace proposal | −3.1% to $4,155.67 |
| Oct 5 | Soft payrolls (Oct 2) cut October hike odds to 22% (Admirals) | $4,158.17 |
| Oct 14 | Hotter September CPI | −1.5%, low near $4,073 |
| Oct 15–16 | Report of Chinese Treasury buying, softer dollar | bounce towards $4,200 |
| Oct 20–21 | Oil-driven hike bets return | about $4,120 after four down days |
The next month tests the Fed's message on Oct 28 and Dec 9 rather than a likely rate change, so read it by who you are
This module turns modules 2 to 6 into a reader-by-reader view, scenario readings and a dated calendar. It uses only facts from those modules, and every outcome for a date after Oct 23 is unknown at the run date, Oct 24, 2026.
What changed, by reader
Savers
What changed: the Fed range rose to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep 16 and the ECB deposit rate to 2.50%; the 2-year Treasury yield was 4.79% on Oct 20, 91 bp above the 3.88% effective fed funds rate.
Implication: short-dated yields already price hikes not yet delivered, so cash and short bonds earn more, but a pause in October would not by itself pull them down.
Borrowers
What changed: the 10-year closed at 5.34% on Sep 30 and was 5.12% on Oct 20; the 30-year mortgage rate was reported at 7.57% on Oct 2 against 5.99% on Feb 27, up 1.58 points.
Implication: long rates sit well above policy rates, so an October Fed hold would not necessarily lower borrowing costs.
Bond investors
What changed: hike odds for Oct 28 fell from 72% on Sep 24 to 8% on Oct 23, while a Dec 9 hike is priced at 72%.
Implication: the decision to watch is the Dec 9 FOMC, and the Oct 28 press conference matters for what Chair Warsh says about it.
FX and equity investors
What changed: the dollar index reached 101.848 on Oct 1; EUR/USD fell to 1.1114 on Oct 14 after the CPI; USD/JPY closed at 158.29 on Oct 20.
Implication: hike odds were the common driver, and a hawkish surprise would likely move all three again; the yen is held in a band by intervention risk.
Gold holders
What changed: gold fell on each hike-odds spike and was $4,119.37 on Oct 21, about 12% below its August peak.
Implication: gold stays tied to Fed hike odds and oil.
Scenarios by outcome
Readings of the published estimates and pricing in modules 2 and 4, not our forecasts. Every outcome below is upcoming and none is stated.
The range stays 3.75%–4.00%. Williams (Sep 29) and Jefferson (Oct 1) had made October the less likely date. RBC (estimate) sees hikes in December and March 2027, ending at 4.25%–4.50%.
The range would reach 4.00%–4.25%. The 2026 calendar would then have only the Dec 9 meeting left.
Polymarket implied 97% for no change, and Morningstar says most analysts expect no change, with a possible hike on Dec 17.
Polymarket implied 97% for no change, and Reuters (via TMGM) says many expect a hold, with a December hike to 1.5% left open.
Kalshi had a hike at 81% on Oct 22, while RBC's base case is a hold through 2026 (estimate).
Polymarket implied 95% for a 25 bp hike, in line with BNP Paribas's call (estimate) for one “insurance” hike in November.
Key dates
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Fed hike to 3.75%–4.00% (12–0) | In effect | Benigno |
| Oct 2, 2026 | September US jobs report: +29,000, unemployment 4.2% | In effect | BLS |
| Oct 7, 2026 | FOMC minutes released | In effect | Federal Reserve |
| Oct 14, 2026 | US September CPI, 3.7% y/y | In effect | BLS via CNBC |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Eurostat September HICP, 3.8% | In effect | Eurostat |
| Oct 21, 2026 | UK September CPI, 3.5% | In effect | ONS |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Fed decision, 2:00 p.m. ET, no new projections; BoC (9:45 a.m. ET) and RBNZ also decide | Upcoming | BloFin; Forexuro |
| Oct 29, 2026 | ECB decision, 14:15 CET | Upcoming | Admirals |
| Oct 30, 2026 | BoJ decision | Upcoming | TMGM |
| Nov 3, 2026 | RBA decision; US election | Upcoming | Forexuro; Yahoo Finance |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Euro-area October flash inflation (listed) | Upcoming | Trading Economics |
| Nov 5, 2026 | BoE decision | Upcoming | Forexuro |
| Nov 6, 2026 | US October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET | Upcoming | BLS |
| Nov 18, 2026 | FOMC minutes; next UK CPI release | Upcoming | BloFin; ONS |
| Dec 9, 2026 | FOMC with new projections; 72% hike priced (implied probability, Oct 23) | Upcoming | BloFin; DeFi Rate |
| Dec 17, 2026 | ECB decision with new staff projections | Upcoming | Admirals |
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked in effect. The material does not state the dates of the US October CPI and PPI releases or of Japan's October CPI.