The week's biggest legal change was a US waiver, while Hormuz access, not the waiver, set prices and flows
Five conclusions, each with its evidence and basis labels, then the nine events behind them.
The war around the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia–Ukraine war kept producing attacks, but the week's biggest legal change was a US waiver, not a new sanction. Brent settled at $113.17 on Oct 22, a five-month high, six days after the waiver.
Five conclusions
Hormuz attacks continue, but confirmed incidents and Iranian claims must be kept apart
UKMTO confirmed a tug hit by two projectiles on Oct 18 and tankers struck off Al Faw (Oct 20) and Bukha (Oct 21). Iran's claims of mine strikes on Oct 17 and of seven tankers hit on Oct 22 were not substantiated by JMIC or confirmed by AP. Nothing is agreed in talks, and the New York Times reported plans for a short, intensive US–Israeli operation after the Nov 3 midterms.
In Ukraine, the strikes escalated while diplomacy stalled
Russia fired 269 drones on Oct 18–19 and 210 drones plus 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv on Oct 21–22, so the jet-powered share rose from about 22% to about 52%. After Witkoff met Putin on Oct 21, Peskov said Russia's energy-ceasefire position was unchanged.
The waiver loosened Washington's Russia sanctions while Brussels tightened
The executive order of Oct 16 suspends the Graham Act's 500% tariff and 100% buyer tariff and waives its sanctions sections, with no expiry, although older executive-order sanctions are untouched. Bessent said "no sanctions were lifted". Norway aligned with the EU's 21st package on Oct 21, and a 22nd package is being prepared.
Energy prices and freight follow Hormuz access, not the waiver
Brent fell to $109.55 on Oct 19, then settled at $113.17 on Oct 22, a five-month high. Kpler counts confirmed Hormuz shipments at 10.17 mb/d, 41% below pre-war, and Marsh puts war-risk cover at 3–10% of hull value against 0.15–0.25% before the war. Container rates moved the other way: Drewry's index rose 2% to $4,585 per FEU as ships returned to Suez routings.
Helium is short today, while rare earths and tungsten are policy clocks
China's expanded rare-earth controls stay suspended to Nov 10, 2026 while licensing remains in force. A CBS report of Oct 18 says helium spot prices have tripled and some buyers are rationed. Tungsten APT was 470,000 yuan/t on Oct 15, about 69% below its March peak.
Events at a glance
| Theatre | Event | Date | Effect | Status (Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hormuz | Tankers struck off Al Faw and Bukha | Oct 20–21 | Fire put out at Bukha; JMIC keeps Hormuz at SEVERE | Confirmed | UKMTO via gCaptain |
Middle East war | Iran says seven tankers hit overnight | Oct 22 | AP could not confirm; UKMTO did not report it | Claimed | AP via Global News |
Middle East war | US–Israel plan for strikes after Nov 3 midterms | Reported Oct 21 | Operation is a plan, not an event | Reported | NYT via ISW |
Russia–Ukraine | Salvo on Kyiv: 210 drones, 21 ballistic missiles | Oct 21–22 | Jet-powered share about 52% | Ukrainian figures | ISW |
Sanctions | US executive order waiving Graham Act measures | Signed Oct 16 | Tariffs and listed sanctions suspended, no expiry | In effect | Clyde & Co |
Sanctions | Norway aligns with EU 21st package | Oct 21 | Energy, banks, crypto and shadow-fleet measures | In effect | Ukrainska Pravda |
Energy | Brent settles at $113.17 (+$4.35) | Oct 22 | Highest since May | Reported | Newsquawk |
Shipping | Drewry World Container Index $4,585 per FEU | Week 43 | +2% on the week | Reported | Shipping Telegraph |
Materials | China's expanded rare-earth controls suspended | Reported Oct 22 | Suspension to Nov 10, 2026; licensing in force | Suspended | GEP |
Attacks continued on two fronts, but only confirmed incidents count as facts and Iranian and Russian statements stay claims
Dated events by theatre, with confirmed facts, claims and reported plans kept in separate columns.
By theatre
- Oct 18 · Tug hit by two projectiles off Khor Fakkan; one minor injury (UKMTO).
- Oct 20, 1830 UTC · Tanker struck 30 NM south-east of Al Faw (UKMTO via gCaptain).
- Oct 21, 0145 UTC · Tanker struck 11 NM west of Bukha; fire put out (UKMTO via gCaptain).
- Oct 18 · JMIC kept Hormuz at SEVERE; gCaptain says it raised the wider Persian Gulf to SUBSTANTIAL (date not stated).
- Oct 17 · IRGC said two supertankers hit mines; JMIC: "no substantiation".
- Oct 20 · IRGC claimed a mine strike on a supertanker, naming no ships.
- Oct 22 · Iranian state TV said seven tankers were hit; AP could not confirm and UKMTO did not report it.
- Earlier claims (Jul 18 to Oct 14, context) were denied by CENTCOM or contradicted by JMIC.
- Oct 22 · Iran says it would end the war and open the strait within a week if US conditions are met, including lifting its blockade of Iranian ports; nothing is agreed (AP).
- The US is sending a third carrier and thousands of troops (AP).
- Oct 21 · NYT: US and Israeli planners have a short, intensive operation ready for after the Nov 3 midterms; NPR's unnamed source says early November. A plan, not an event.
- Oct 22 · ISW: Houthis "almost certainly" took a stretch of the Taiz–Aden road.
Russian drone salvos, Oct 18–19 and Oct 21–22
Ukrainian figures via ISW. Oct 21–22 also included 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv (per Zelensky). "Other drones" is total minus jet-powered (derived).
Witkoff met Zelensky and European leaders in Oslo on Oct 20 and Putin in St Petersburg on Oct 21. Ushakov said Putin found the proposals had "little that was useful"; Peskov said the energy-ceasefire position was unchanged and Russia "needs peace, not a ceasefire". On Oct 22 Peskov said Putin presented no proposal.
Putin's claim that a first 40,000-tonne diesel cargo would sail to the US within two to three days is treated by ISW as a claim.
ISW's net Russian territory loss since Sep 1 was 122 km² to Oct 16, about 73 km² (Oct 21 report) and 241 km² (Oct 22 report): windows differ, so read them as revised estimates.
Russian casualties: almost 37,000 in October to Oct 22 against 31,270 for all of October 2025, +5,730 or +18% (ISW estimate).
China closed five coastal zones for firing on Oct 12–17. The nearest, off Wenzhou, is about 150 nm (278 km) from Taiwan by Storm Media's estimate and 159 nm by Taiwan's port bureau, which saw no shipping impact.
Two Chinese drones and a reconnaissance aircraft flew near Japan's Keen Sword 27 exercise (about 45,000 Japanese and 12,000 US troops; start date not stated).
On Oct 20 the PLA said it tracked USS Charleston near Sabina Shoal. USNI counts at least eight China–Philippines close encounters since the start of October.
The PLA account is one party's statement and is shown as such.
The week in one table
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
IRGC says two supertankers hit mines | JMIC: "no substantiation" | Oct 17 | Claimed | JMIC |
Tug struck off Khor Fakkan | 2 projectiles, 1 minor injury | Oct 18 | Confirmed | UKMTO |
Tankers struck off Al Faw, Bukha | 2 tankers | Oct 20–21 | Confirmed | UKMTO via gCaptain |
Iran says tankers hit overnight | 7 | Oct 22 | Claimed | AP |
US–Israel plan for strikes after midterms | "short and intensive" | Oct 21–22 | Reported | NYT via ISW |
Russian strike on Kyiv | 210 drones, 21 missiles | Oct 21–22 | Ukrainian figures | ISW |
USS Charleston shadowed | Sabina Shoal | Oct 20 | PLA statement | USNI |
Washington loosened its Russia sanctions through an open-ended waiver while Brussels and Oslo tightened
What each instrument actually does, where statements conflict with it, and the dated tests ahead.
Instruments by actor
- Executive order of Fri Oct 16 invokes section 115 of the Graham Act and certifies to Congress that the waivers serve the national interest.
- It waives the duties in sections 112 and 113 and the sanctions in sections 102(a), 102(d), 102(e), 103 to 111 and 117.
- No expiry: it runs until the President or Secretary of State decides otherwise. The Act's 30-day clock ran out at midnight on Sun Oct 18.
- Section 4(b) leaves sanctions under existing orders such as EO 14024 untouched.
- The Act's Iran sections are not waived.
- The Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, which bars Russian oil products including diesel, also remains.
- OFAC General License 135 (issued Oct 9, context) authorises specified Russian diesel transactions to Apr 7, 2027, and keeps a restriction on debits to certain Russian government accounts. That date is the licence expiry, not the waiver's.
- Rubio: up to 60 days to assess effects. Counted from Oct 16 it ends Dec 15 (estimate; start date not stated).
- Bessent: "no sanctions were lifted", and also "the only thing that has been lifted is the diesel embargo". That is a claim, not the instrument.
- Lawmakers of both parties questioned the diesel licence; Zelensky called it a "historic mistake".
- We follow the instrument: the waiver is open-ended and 60 days is a review period.
- Largest listing round: 826 companies plus 743 CEOs = 1,569, over half concerning ballistic missiles.
- Also 77 people tied to Duma "elections" in occupied territory (74 candidates, 3 election officials) and 3 individuals and 4 entities under the DPRK regime.
- Total listings: "close to 4,600" in EEAS text, "4,500+" in its graphic.
- Norway's alignment with the EU 21st package, adopted Jul 23, took effect Oct 21 (energy, banks, crypto, shadow fleet).
- EU leaders in Brussels said no sanctions would be lifted until Russia stops the war and that a 22nd package is being prepared; no content or date is published.
- A report that EU states agreed to drop Usmanov and Fridman is AI-generated and unconfirmed; Fieldfisher records the regime renewed on Sep 22 for three years, without them.
- UK's last package in the material is Oct 1: 23 designations and 8 ships, with Sakhalin-2 licences extended to Dec 31, 2026.
- Russia's countersanctions: Decree 665 of Sep 23 extends them to Dec 31, 2028.
- OFAC designated 16 individuals and 10 entities under EO 13902, including Iran's Jazireh and Chabahar banks and Iraq's IDB.
- GL FF allows wind-down until Oct 30. Operation Economic Outcast launched Aug 24.
- Two OFAC/Treasury pages returned errors, so no Iran action after Oct 15 is confirmed.
- OFAC extended Lukoil GLs 128D and 130B from Oct 29, 2026 to Apr 24, 2027.
Dated tests: Oct 30 (GL FF), Apr 7, 2027 (GL 135), Apr 24, 2027 (Lukoil).
- OFAC added Beijing-registered Qiji Chuangtan partnerships to its non-SDN list under PAIPA, with a wind-down licence (GL 2).
- The total number of additions is not visible in the material.
- MOFCOM/MOST Announcement [2026] No. 48 proposes 40 controlled AI, biopharma and solar technologies; comments to Nov 15.
- Temporary registration is required from Oct 16; registration is not approval.
- Restricted AI models include those at 10²⁶ FLOPs or 2 trillion parameters. It is a general export control, not retaliation.
- Under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law the material lists MOFCOM Orders 2 and 3 (2026) but gives no dates.
- Analysts say Beijing is unlikely to match its 2025 response to the proposed Match Act (estimate).
- The Nov 10 rare-earth suspension is in module 06.
- In the window the response was rhetorical: Lavrov (Oct 19) and Medvedev (Oct 20) kept the United States an adversary.
- ISW assesses the Kremlin is seeking economic relief; Jamestown doubts Russia can reach 10% of global diesel exports by year-end.
Russian diesel deal as announced, by stage
Thousand tonnes. Announced by Trump on Oct 9 (context); deliveries unverified. Stages sum to 4.8 million t.
Delivery is doubtful: Ukrainian strikes damaged refineries and Russian export curbs persist despite easing on Oct 10.
Sanctions at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status (Oct 24) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
US executive order waiving Graham Act Russia sanctions and tariffs | 500% tariff on Russian goods and 100% on main buyers suspended; sanctions in sections 102–111, 117 waived | Signed Oct 16; measures were due Oct 18 | In effectNo expiry date | Clyde & Co; Steptoe |
OFAC General License 135, Russian diesel | Transactions authorised until 12:01 a.m. ET Apr 7, 2027 | Issued Oct 9 (context) | In effect | Clyde & Co; CallYourSenate |
Diesel deal as announced by Trump | 300,000 t now, 500,000 t Nov, 1 Mt after, 3 Mt conditional | Oct 9 (context) | AnnouncedDeliveries unverified | CFR |
EU listings, military-industrial base | 1,569 (826 companies + 743 CEOs); 77 Duma-election listings | Oct 12 (context) | In effect | EEAS |
Norway aligns with EU 21st package | Energy, banks, crypto, shadow fleet | In force Oct 21 | In effect | Ukrainska Pravda |
EU 22nd package | No content or date published | Discussed by Oct 19 | In preparation | Danske Bank |
OFAC Iran designations | 16 individuals, 10 entities; GL FF wind-down to Oct 30 | Oct 15 (context) | In effect | Steptoe |
OFAC PAIPA designations, Chinese entities | Non-SDN list additions (total not visible), GL 1 and GL 2 | Oct 19 | In effect | OFAC |
China MOFCOM/MOST Announcement 48 | 40 technologies; comments to Nov 15 | Oct 16 (day before window) | DraftRegistration in effect | Baker McKenzie |
Oil prices, Hormuz flows and war-risk cover follow access to the strait, and the waiver's price effect lasted one session
Brent settlements, competing flow estimates and the cost of passage, each with its source and basis.
Brent settlements, Oct 16–22 (USD per barrel)
Reported: CommoPlast (Oct 19), Indoen Research (Oct 20), Newsquawk (Oct 22). The Oct 21 value (open marker, *) is derived as 113.17 − 4.35. No Oct 23 settlement is available.
On Mon Oct 19 the waiver pushed Brent down as far as $107.57 (−2.08%), yet it settled at $109.55. The waiver's price effect lasted one session.
- DBS sees $100–110 until the Nov 3 US midterms.
- Morgan Stanley raised its Q4 Dated Brent forecast to $105.
- ING: a US–Iran agreement is needed before the risk premium can fall.
Flow estimates differ because they measure different things
| Source | Measure | Value | Implied pre-war baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
Kpler via Dow Jones | Confirmed Hormuz shipments, 7 days to Oct 17 | 10.17 mb/d (−41%) | 10.17 ÷ 0.59 ≈ 17.2 mb/d |
Kpler via OGJ | Gulf crude flows, 7-day average, week to about Oct 17 | about 8.5 mb/d (prior week above 20) | Not stated |
Indoen | Crude via Hormuz, week to Oct 14 | 9.4 mb/d (about 70% of pre-war) | 9.4 ÷ 0.70 ≈ 13.4 mb/d |
Splash247 (Signal Ocean) | Crude plus products, date not stated | 13.9 + 2.3 = 16.2 mb/d | Not stated |
All four are reported. We follow the Dow Jones/Kpler figure because it states both window and baseline. Oct 22 claims of flows "near pre-war" come from an aggregator tracker and an auto-drafted briefing and are unverified.
Vessel transits in the week to Oct 14 (125 out, 129 in), about 36 a day and about 70% below pre-conflict (JMIC advisory, UKMTO). Reported.
Vessels counted by JMIC on Oct 18: about 217 off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan plus 166 from Dubai/Jebel Ali towards Ras Al Khaimah (JMIC count).
JMIC kept Hormuz at SEVERE and raised the Persian Gulf to SUBSTANTIAL. CENTCOM said on Oct 15 the strait was open; that is a statement, not a flow measure.
- Marsh's quote is undated and was published Oct 22. All four cost figures are reported.
- No tanker-rate series dated inside the window is in the material.
- Reuters cites a baseline of 130–140 transits a day; 254 a week at a 70% fall implies about 121 a day, which is near it (derived).
Cost is where the strait is closed in practice: insurance and access, not the Russian waiver, set the floor under tanker and crude costs.
Diesel stays costly for drivers while container rates decoupled from crude as ships returned to Suez routings
Container rates follow capacity; crude and diesel follow insurance and physical access.
Drewry lanes from Shanghai, USD per 40 ft
Reported: Drewry via Shipping Telegraph. The source's printed dollar changes for Rotterdam and Genoa do not match its Oct 15 levels, so we use level differences.
Intra-Asia index $1,453 (−3%), +198% on a year earlier.
- Carriers sought FAK rates of $4,500–4,800 on Asia–Europe from Oct 19, but Drewry expected little change as blank sailings fell from 6 to 2 and Suez routings returned.
- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are returning gradually; Maersk warns it could revert to the Cape.
- A headline dated Oct 22 reports 63% of Far East–Europe capacity back on Suez routing; its body is not in the material, so it is unverified.
- Kpler puts the global diesel deficit at about 130,000 t a day (about 1 mb/d).
- Energy Intelligence puts it at 1.7–1.8 mb/d and says Ukrainian strikes explain one third, or 0.57–0.60 mb/d.
- The first 300,000 t tranche of the Russian diesel deal is about 2.3 days of Kpler's deficit (estimate).
AFP says Moscow's diesel ban runs July to end-October; OGJ says it is partly in place after easing on Oct 10. We follow OGJ as the later report.
Set on Oct 5, before the window. No new price appears in the window.
The Houthis claimed strikes on Yanbu and Shaybah on Oct 18–19; the material does not confirm them. Yanbu's practical crude-export ceiling is 4–4.5 mb/d (Al Jazeera, Reuters).
Aramco Q3 results are due Nov 3.
Helium is short today, while rare earths, graphite and tungsten are policy clocks
Only one of these risks is a shortage today: helium is physically short because of the Gulf; the rest tighten or ease on paper.
Materials at a glance
| Item | Key figure | Date | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
China expanded rare-earth rules | Suspended to Nov 10, 2026 | Reported Oct 22 | SuspendedLicensing in force | GEP |
China rare-earth exports, Sept | 4,269.8 t, −9.8% m/m | Reported week of Oct 12–18 | Reported | Strategic Metals Invest |
Yttrium oxide, ex-China | $1,150/kg vs $9/kg in China | Date not stated | Reported | Argus (via FT) |
Tungsten APT (China) | 470,000 yuan/t | Oct 15 | Reported | SMM (via Markets Insider) |
Gallium price, Q2 vs Q1 | UK +3.65%, China +1.01% | Posted Oct 22 | Estimate | Global Risk Community |
Helium spot price | About 3× pre-war | Oct 18 | Reported | CBS News |
Detail by material
World helium output, 2025 (million m³)
USGS data relayed by Lodi 411: US 81 (43%), Qatar 63 (33%); US plus Qatar is 144 of 190, or 76%.
- CBS, Oct 18: a former Air Liquide executive says spot prices have tripled; Energy News Beat says they roughly doubled early on. We follow "two to three times".
- A Polar Semiconductor supplier put it on allocation; a university lab was offered 50% of last year's use.
- Qatar quoted at least three years to repair Ras Laffan (CBS; Lodi says three to five). The strike was in March 2026 (context).
China banned helium exports from Jul 10, 2026 under Announcement No. 29 (in effect). Russian exports need a licence through 2027 (per Lodi). The US exported 38 of its 81 million m³ in 2025 (47%); exports are up about 70% since the war began (Census, via CBS).
- Reported Oct 22: China's expanded rare-earth export controls stay suspended through Nov 10, 2026; the earlier licensing regime "has stayed active throughout".
- The suspended rules would reach foreign-made products where Chinese-origin rare-earth items are at least 0.1% of value. China held about 85% of global rare-earth refining in 2025.
- Graphite follows the same calendar: Decision No. 70 (Nov 7, 2025) suspended its listing until Nov 10, 2026; licensing from Dec 1, 2023 stays in effect (NextMSC).
- September exports 4,269.8 t, −9.8% on August (implied August about 4,734 t) and +6.7% on September 2025.
- January to September: 43,711 t, −9.6% on 2025, yet export value rose 46.6%, which the source attributes to prices and product mix.
- Source: China Customs data cited by Strategic Metals Invest.
- Yttrium oxide: $1,150/kg outside China against $9/kg inside, about 128× (Argus via FT; date not stated). Japanese officials expect shortages before year-end.
- A US official told the FT Beijing meets about two-thirds of its commitments: one party's claim.
- Both sides named about $30 billion of goods for possible tariff cuts; rates and dates are unannounced (proposed). The wider truce runs to Jan 10, 2027.
- SMM put Chinese APT at 470,000 yuan/t on Oct 15, about 69% below the mid-March peak (implied peak about 1.5 million yuan/t, derived). On Oct 19 SMM said large producers were buying again.
- A different source put APT near RMB 500,000/t on Oct 21; no change is computed.
- China allows only 15 companies to export tungsten in 2026–27. From Jan 1, 2027 US defence contractors may not deliver covered tungsten products from China, Russia, North Korea or Iran.
Market-research note posted Oct 22, so "according to". Importers rose faster than China. Germanium.com headlines, without figures: on Oct 20 September gallium exports rebounded while germanium slumped, and China tightened dual-use rules on machinery and technologies. A draft control on polysilicon and wafer technology dates from Oct 16. There are no price levels for germanium.
Three labelled scenarios show where risk could move, and each rests on indicators already visible
Scenarios are not predictions and carry no probabilities. They use only the facts from modules 02 to 06.
What is already visible that points toward wider fighting.
Evidence: NYT via ISW; NPR; AP
What is already visible that points toward no change.
Evidence: AP; Kpler via Dow Jones; JMIC; Peskov
What is already visible that points toward an easing.
Evidence: AP; ING via Dow Jones
- Russia's October casualties were almost 37,000 against 31,270 for all of October 2025 (ISW estimate).
- ISW judges that the Kremlin wants economic concessions, not an end to the war.
- The waiver is not a lifting: older executive-order sanctions stay. The 60-day review Rubio mentioned would end on Dec 15 if counted from Oct 16 (estimate).
These are scenarios, not forecasts. No probabilities are attached. The week's price and supply risk is set by Hormuz access and by dates, not by the Russian waiver: the waiver is open-ended and moved Brent for one session.
Buyers, compliance teams, shippers and manufacturers should act on dated tests that run from Oct 27 to April 2027
What changed for each reader, what it implies, and the calendar to work from.
What changed, by reader
- Brent settled at $113.17 on Oct 22, up $4.35 on the day
- US diesel (AAA) was $6.31 on Oct 20 against a record $6.52 on Sep 22
- The first 300,000 t Russian diesel tranche is about 2.3 days of Kpler's 130,000 t/day deficit
The deal is too small to move prices; the price floor follows Hormuz access, and ING ties a lower premium to a US–Iran agreement.
- The US waiver is open-ended and leaves existing orders intact
- GL 135 runs to Apr 7, 2027
- Norway aligned with the EU on Oct 21 and a 22nd EU package is in preparation
US and EU positions diverge; keep a list of licence and review dates.
- JMIC counted 383 vessels at anchor on Oct 18
- Hormuz transits were 254 in the week to Oct 14
- War-risk cover is 3–10% of hull value; Drewry's index rose 2% to $4,585 per FEU
Tanker cost is driven by insurance and access; container rates follow capacity as ships return to Suez, and Red Sea risk can reverse that.
- Rare-earth controls are suspended to Nov 10 with licensing in force
- Yttrium oxide costs $1,150/kg outside China against $9/kg inside
- Helium spot prices about tripled and some buyers are rationed
Helium is a physical shortage now; rare earths and tungsten depend on policy dates.
Key dates
Dates already past on Oct 24, 2026 are marked In effect; later dates are Upcoming.
US executive order waiving Graham Act measures signed; China Announcement 48 registration starts
In effectClyde & Co; Baker McKenzieOFAC adds Beijing-registered entities to the non-SDN list under PAIPA
In effectOFACNorway's alignment with the EU 21st package takes effect
In effectUkrainska PravdaIsraeli election
UpcomingNPROFAC GL FF wind-down ends; French port unions plan joint action
UpcomingSteptoe; ShippioUS midterms, after which the NYT reports a possible Iran operation; Aramco Q3 results
UpcomingISW; AD HOC NEWSChina's rare-earth and graphite suspensions run to this date
UpcomingGEP; NextMSCComments on China's Announcement 48 close
UpcomingBaker McKenzieEnd of Rubio's 60-day review if counted from Oct 16 (estimate)
UpcomingOGJUS defence contractors barred from delivering covered tungsten products from China, Russia, North Korea or Iran
UpcomingMarkets InsiderUS–China truce runs to this date
UpcomingGEPGL 135 expires
UpcomingCallYourSenateLukoil GLs 128D and 130B extended to this date
UpcomingSteptoeThe week's price and supply risk is set by Hormuz access and by dates, not by the Russian waiver: the waiver is open-ended and moved Brent for one session, while access, insurance cost and the Nov 3 to Nov 10 calendar decide what buyers pay.