Tech Earnings Season Brief, Jul 25

01 Key points of the quarter

AI demand outran supply this quarter, and the cost of meeting it began to show in cash flow and credit markets

Between Jul 25 and Oct 23, 2026 the large technology companies reported results in which cloud and chip revenue grew fast and backlog reached hundreds of billions of dollars, while free cash flow turned negative at Meta, Alphabet and Oracle. Five conclusions explain the quarter; every item is judged against Oct 24, 2026.

Five conclusions, with the evidence behind each

Cloud and AI-chip growth is supply-limited, not demand-limited

Cloud revenue grew 37% to 82% and the two AI-chip suppliers more than doubled their AI lines. Nvidia’s CFO said supply should remain a bottleneck through the end of fiscal 2028.

Google Cloud · Q2 2026 · call Jul 22Revenue $24.8B, +82% · reported Azure · fiscal Q4 2026 · Jul 29Growth +43% · reported AWS · Q2 2026 · Jul 30Revenue $42.2B, +37% · reported Nvidia · fiscal Q2 2027 · Aug 26Data Center $89.0B, +117% · reported Broadcom · fiscal Q3 2026 · Sep 2AI semiconductors $16.7B, +221% · reported Nvidia CFO · Aug 26 callSupply a bottleneck through end of fiscal 2028 · call summary (secondary)

Platforms and cloud → Chips and infrastructure →

Backlog is very large but concentrated in a few AI labs

Four companies report backlog of $496B to $678B. Part of it rests on one or two customers, and the longest-range numbers are management statements, not results.

AWS · Jun 30, 2026 · Q2Backlog $496B · reported Google Cloud · Q2 2026Backlog $514B · reported Microsoft · fiscal Q4 2026 · Jul 29Commercial RPO $678B · reported Oracle · fiscal Q1 2027 · Sep 10RPO $664B · reported Microsoft · January 2026About 45% of the then-$625B backlog tied to OpenAI · company comment (CNBC) AWS · Q2 2026About $100B of backlog is one customer · reported (Investing.com) Broadcom · Sep 2 callAbout $115B (FY2027) and $230B (FY2028) of AI revenue · management outlook, not a result

AI revenue and capex →

Spending has outrun operating cash

The big four guide 2026 capex to $725B to $745B, 77% to 82% above about $410B in 2025. In our judgement only Microsoft is funding growth mainly from internal cash.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta · latest guidance Jul 22–Oct 212026 capex $725–745B · our sum of company guidance Meta · Q3 2026 · Oct 21Free cash flow −⁠$2.12B · reported Oracle · fiscal Q1 2027 · Sep 10Free cash flow about −⁠$5.4B · reported; 23.1 − 28.5 is our arithmetic Meta · Oct 22Five-year credit default swap at a record · reported (Reuters, Investing.com)

Capex, cash and credit →

Strong prints did not hold the share price

Several beats were sold within hours or days. Goldman Sachs Research puts the S&P 500 forward P/E at 19x, down from 23x a year earlier (estimate).

Meta · Oct 21 after hoursUp about 2.2% to 2.5% · reported market data Meta · Oct 22 closeDown 6.98% as bubble fears returned · reported market data Apple · Jul 30 extended tradingDown 3% to 4% despite a beat · reported market data Broadcom · Oct 8 closeDown 4.35% to $360.14 · reported market data S&P 500 · Sep 21Forward P/E 19x against 23x a year earlier · Goldman Sachs estimate

Valuation and share prices →

Headline numbers need adjusting before they are compared

One-off charges, tariff refunds, accounting changes and new-node costs all distort the top line of the tables.

Meta · Q3 2026 · Oct 21GAAP EPS $3.83 includes a $9.89B legal charge; $7.40 without it (Meta’s own calculation) Apple · fiscal Q3 2026 · Jul 30Gross margin 50.1% included about 2 points of tariff refunds Microsoft · Jul 29Lower 2026 capex is an accounting change, not a cut Broadcom · fiscal Q3 2026 · Sep 2Gross margin down 210 bp to 75% on memory content TSMC · Q3 2026 · Oct 15Gross margin down 1.3 points to 66.4% on the 2-nm ramp

Platform snapshots → Chip snapshots →

Companies at a glance

Revenue growth is year on year; EPS is GAAP unless marked; guidance is management guidance unless marked. Fiscal periods differ and are not summed.

Company	Fiscal period reported	Revenue	Growth	EPS or margin	Guidance	Report date
MicrosoftReported	Fiscal Q4 2026 (to Jun 30)	$90.01B	+18%	EPS $4.74 adjusted ($4.81 GAAP)	Calendar-2026 capex about $175B Company guidance	Jul 29, 2026
AmazonReported	Q2 2026	$200.6B	+20%	Operating margin 13.7%	2026 cash capex about $220B Company guidance	Jul 30, 2026
AppleReported	Fiscal Q3 2026 (to Jun 27)	$109.4B	+16%	EPS $2.02	Fiscal Q4 growth 9–11%, gross margin 47–48% Management guidance	Jul 30, 2026
NvidiaReported	Fiscal Q2 2027 (to Jul 26)	$96.2B	+106%	Non-GAAP EPS $2.22; gross margin 75.0%	Q3 revenue $108.0B ±2% Company guidance	Aug 26, 2026
BroadcomReported	Fiscal Q3 2026 (to Aug 2)	$29.6B	+86%	Non-GAAP operating margin 67.9%	Q4 revenue about $34.8B Company guidance	Sep 2, 2026
OracleReported	Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 31)	$19.3B	+30%	Non-GAAP EPS $1.92	FY2027 revenue at least $90B Company guidance	Sep 10, 2026
TSMCReported	Q3 2026	US$46.72B	+50.9% (in NT$)	Gross margin 66.4%	Q4 US$52.3–54.3B Company guidance	Oct 15, 2026
MetaReported	Q3 2026	$64.60B	+26%	EPS $3.83 ($7.40 excluding a $9.89B legal charge)	Q4 revenue $73–76B Company guidance	Oct 21, 2026
TeslaReported	Q3 2026	$28.05B	Flat	Non-GAAP EPS $0.48 (GAAP $0.22)	Capex about $20B Reuters, press report	Oct 21, 2026

Sources: company releases and calls as relayed by CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Futurum, Electrek and Reuters; each company’s own period is shown. TSMC figures are Futurum’s.

How to read the status labels

ReportedA figure published by the company, or market data, for the date shown.

Company guidanceA forecast the company itself issued; open until it reports.

Management outlookA statement by management on a call; a statement, not a result.

EstimateA forecast by an outside firm such as Goldman Sachs or UBS.

Press reportReported by a news outlet; no company document in our material.

Our arithmeticCalculated by us from reported numbers.

UnverifiedA figure that no primary document confirms.

UpcomingAn event dated after Oct 23, 2026.

02 Platforms, devices and cloud

Cloud supplied the growth, while Meta and Tesla showed the cost side of the quarter

Six platform, device and cloud companies, each with its own fiscal period and report date. Figures are as reported (GAAP) unless marked. The three clouds are not like for like, so they are shown side by side before the company snapshots.

Cloud revenue growth, year on year

Reading: Google Cloud grew fastest (+82%, Q2 2026); AWS and Azure grew 37% and 43%. Azure and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud are separate Microsoft lines, so do not add them. All bars are reported, for each line’s own quarter.

Cloud scoreboard, June quarter 2026

Cloud, period, date	Revenue	YoY	Operating income	Margin
AWSAmazon Q2 2026 · Jul 30	$42.2B	+37%	$16.6B	39.4% 16.62 ÷ 42.23, our arithmetic
Microsoft Intelligent CloudFiscal Q4 2026 · Jul 29	$39.3B	+32%	$15.9B	40.5% 15.9 ÷ 39.3, our arithmetic
Google CloudAlphabet Q2 2026 · call Jul 22	$24.8B	+82%	$8.8B	35.5% 8.8 ÷ 24.8, our arithmetic

Source: CRN, which gives the comparable June-quarter numbers; the margin column is our division. Reported Our arithmetic

AWS operating margin: 36.8% or 39.4%?

CNBC gives 36.8%; Investing.com and TechTimes give 39.4%. Since 16.62 ÷ 42.23 = 39.4%, we follow 39.4%. About $600M of operating income came from energy-derivative gains (Investing.com); excluding it, (16.62 − 0.6) ÷ 42.23 ≈ 37.9% (our arithmetic).

Company snapshots

Apple

Fiscal Q3 2026 (to Jun 27) · reported Jul 30, 2026Reported

Products and margin

Products revenue was $78.7B and Services $30.7B (sum $109.4B). iPhone was $54.25B (+22%), Mac $10.35B (+29%) and iPad $6.19B (−6%).
Gross margin of 50.1% included about 2 points from tariff refunds, so the underlying figure is roughly 48% (our subtraction).

Against expectations

Services missed the $31.22B analyst estimate by $0.48B, and Greater China at $18.8B missed a $19.6B estimate.
Management said chip supply and memory costs limit the September quarter (guidance is in the guidance module).

Key figures

$109.4BRevenue, +16% (June-quarter record)

$2.02EPS, +29%; includes $0.11 of tariff refunds

$30.7BServices revenue, +12%

50.1%Gross margin, includes about 2 points of tariff refunds

Source: Yahoo Finance call highlights (GuruFocus); period end from a second source. Apple’s next report date is not stated.

Tesla

Q3 2026 · reported Oct 21, 2026ReportedCapex cut: press report

Capex: two sources disagree

Electrek, writing on results night, said the shareholder letter left the “more than $25B” 2026 plan unchanged, with nine-month capex of $13.01B.
Reuters, via IndMoney, reports Tesla cut the plan to about $20B on the call. This is a press report; our material holds no Tesla document for it.
Q4 would need about $12B under $25B and about $7B under $20B (25 − 13.01 and 20 − 13.01, our arithmetic).

Reconciling the quarter

Q3 capex was $4.73B, which reconciles with operating cash flow of $6.263B: 6.263 − 4.732 = 1.531.
CNBC prints capex of $3.73B and year-ago revenue of $28.24B; we follow Electrek and Yahoo Finance.

Key figures

$28.05BRevenue, flat

$0.48Non-GAAP EPS (GAAP $0.22)

$718MOperating income, 2.6% margin

$1.53BFree cash flow

Source: Electrek, from Tesla’s update; Reuters via IndMoney; Yahoo Finance. Tesla’s next report date is not stated.

Microsoft

Fiscal Q4 2026 (to Jun 30) · reported Jul 29, 2026Reported

Results

EPS was $4.74 adjusted ($4.81 GAAP); the adjusted figure excludes the OpenAI investment impact. GAAP net income of $35.77B included a $3.2B Anthropic gain.
Fiscal 2026 revenue was above $331B (+18%) and operating income above $155B (+21%). Azure passed $100B for the year, up 41%.
Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats (Investing.com).

Capex and cash

Operating cash flow of $55.4B less free cash flow of $19.64B leaves about $35.8B of cash capex (our arithmetic). Management said demand exceeds capacity.
Unverified One aggregator, shattered.io, says Microsoft disclosed Azure at $29.4B for the quarter on Sep 2; no primary document confirms it.

Key figures

$90.01BRevenue, +18%

+43%Azure and other cloud services (43% at constant currency; 40% in the prior quarter)

$41BCapex including finance leases, +69%

$19.64BFree cash flow

Source: Investing.com; CNBC. Next report expected Oct 28 (fiscal Q1 2027, upcoming).

Alphabet

Q2 2026 · call Jul 22, 2026Reported

Google Cloud

Revenue rose from $13.6B a year earlier (24.8 ÷ 13.6 = 1.82) and from $20.0B in Q1, a gain of $4.8B in one quarter.
Estimate Synergy Research puts Q2 share at AWS 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15% of a $143B market.
Estimate UBS estimates that 27% of Google Cloud’s 2026 revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.

What our material lacks

Alphabet group revenue and EPS are not in our material, so none are shown.
Backlog rose from $467.6B at Mar 31, a gain of $46.4B; another source says “more than $50B”, so the sources conflict.
Capex guidance and free cash flow are in the AI revenue and capex module.

Key figures (Google Cloud)

$24.8BRevenue, +82%

$8.8BOperating income, +212%

$514BBacklog

+$4.8BRevenue gain from Q1 ($20.0B), our arithmetic

Source: CRN; TechnologyChecker, citing Alphabet. Next report expected Oct 28 (Q3, upcoming).

Amazon

Q2 2026 · reported Jul 30, 2026Reported

Profit and spending

Amazon crossed $200B of quarterly sales for the first time, with operating margin of 13.7% against 11.4%.
Net income of $62.6B is 2.3 times operating income, implying large non-operating gains that our material does not name (our arithmetic).
Quarterly capex was $54.21B (+68%, gross purchases); the capex module uses $53.1B, cash capex net of property sales and incentives.

Cloud and AI lines

AWS revenue was $42.2B (+37%), a $169B annualised run rate.
Amazon’s AI business and chips business each passed a $25B annualised run rate (company statement).

Key figures

$200.6BNet sales, +20%

$27.5BOperating income, 13.7% margin

$62.6BNet income ($5.75 per share)

$42.2BAWS revenue, +37%

Source: Futurum, citing Amazon’s release; CNBC; Investing.com. Next report expected Oct 29 (Q3, upcoming).

Takeaway: cloud is the strongest line in the group (Google Cloud +82%, Azure +43%, AWS +37%), while Meta’s −⁠$2.12B and Tesla’s thin $1.53B of free cash flow show spending catching up with operating cash. Upcoming after Oct 23: Alphabet and Microsoft are expected on Oct 28 and Amazon on Oct 29 (secondary sources).

03 Chips, software and infrastructure

The silicon layer is capacity-limited, not demand-limited, and its margins are slipping from mix and new nodes

The companies that sell, build and host AI compute grew as fast as capacity allowed. Fiscal periods differ and are not summed. The material holds no Intel or Salesforce results, so neither is covered and nothing is inferred.

Revenue growth, year on year

Reading: Nvidia and Broadcom more than matched the cloud growth rates. Each bar is reported for that company’s own quarter; TSMC’s +50.9% is in NT dollars, the others in US dollars.

Margin watch: gross margin is slipping

Company, period, date	Gross margin	Change	Outlook
NvidiaFiscal Q2 2027 · Aug 26	75.0% GAAP and non-GAAP	Not stated	Q3 74.0% ±50 bp; Q4 to bottom at 71–72% Company guidance and management comment
BroadcomFiscal Q3 2026 · Sep 2	75%	Down 210 bp on the quarter, on memory content in XPUs	Q4 about 73% Company guidance
TSMCQ3 2026 · Oct 15	66.4%	Down 1.3 points, on the 2-nm ramp	Q4 65–67% Company guidance
AMDQ2 2026 · Aug 4	54% GAAP, 56% non-GAAP	Not stated	Not stated

Sources: NVIDIA, Broadcom and AMD releases; Futurum for TSMC. Reported

Company snapshots

Nvidia

Fiscal Q2 2027 (to Jul 26) · reported Aug 26, 2026ReportedQ3 outlook: company guidance

Mix and beat

Data Center was $89.0B, about 92.5% of revenue (89.0 ÷ 96.2), and Edge Computing was $7.2B; the two sum to $96.2B.
On the call, management split Data Center into $49B hyperscale and $40B ACIE (49 + 40 = 89), per a GuruFocus summary of the call (secondary).
Revenue beat the company’s own $91.0B guide midpoint by 5.7% (our arithmetic).

Outlook

Q3 guidance is $108.0B ±2%, a range of $105.8B to $110.2B, with no China Data Center compute assumed. The midpoint is 12.2% above Q2 (our arithmetic); gross margin is guided to 74.0% ±50 bp.
Management said Q4 gross margin should bottom at 71–72%. CFO Colette Kress said supply should “remain a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal year 2028”, with preliminary fiscal 2028 growth of about 70% (call summary, secondary).

Key figures

$96.2BRevenue, +106% year on year, +18% on Q1

$89.0BData Center, +117%

$2.46 / $2.22EPS, GAAP / non-GAAP

66.2%GAAP operating margin (63,734 ÷ 96,221, our arithmetic)

Source: NVIDIA release; GuruFocus call summary. Nvidia’s next report date is not stated.

Broadcom

Fiscal Q3 2026 (to Aug 2) · reported Sep 2, 2026ReportedQ4 outlook: company guidance

Margin and mix

Gross margin fell 210 bp on the quarter to 75% because XPUs, which are 73% of AI revenue, carry more memory; management guides about 73% for Q4.
Nvidia’s Data Center revenue is 5.3 times Broadcom’s AI revenue (89.0 ÷ 16.7), though the quarters end a week apart (our arithmetic). Broadcom earns a similar operating margin on custom silicon.

Outlook

Q4 revenue is guided to about $34.8B (+93%), with $21.7B of AI semiconductors (+236%), 30% above Q3 (21.7 ÷ 16.7 − 1, our arithmetic).
Management cites FY2026 AI revenue of about $58B. The longer-range outlook is in the guidance module and is a statement, not a result.

Key figures

$29.6BRevenue, +86%: semiconductors $20.8B (+127%), infrastructure software $8.8B (+29%)

$16.7BAI semiconductors, +221%; 56% of revenue; +54% on the prior quarter

67.9%Non-GAAP operating margin ($20.1B); GAAP operating income $16.0B

$13.7BFree cash flow, 46% of revenue

Source: Broadcom release. Broadcom’s fiscal Q4 report is upcoming; the date is not stated.

AMD

Q2 2026 (to Jun 27) · reported Aug 4, 2026ReportedQ3 outlook: company guidance

Mix and a source conflict

Client and Gaming was $3.8B (+6%) and Embedded $977M (+19%); with Data Center they add to the total.
TradingKey’s “45%” growth conflicts with the arithmetic (11,536 ÷ 7,685 − 1 = 50.1%), so we follow the release.

Outlook

Q3 guidance of $13.0B ±$0.3B compares with LSEG consensus of $12.52B (an analyst estimate).
CEO Lisa Su said Data Center revenue should double in 2027 and server revenue should rise over 80% in H2 2026 (management comments).

Key figures

$11.5BRevenue ($11,536M), +50% on $7,685M a year earlier

$6.7BData Center, +107%; 58% of revenue

54% / 56%Gross margin, GAAP / non-GAAP

$3,094MNon-GAAP operating income (27%)

Source: AMD release; CNBC. AMD’s next report date is not stated.

TSMC

Q3 2026 (to Sep 30) · reported Oct 15, 2026Reported (via Futurum)Q4 outlook: company guidance

Beat and a source conflict

TSMC’s Q3 guide was $44.6–45.8B, so revenue beat the top by 2.0% (46.72 ÷ 45.8, our arithmetic).
Sources conflict on dollars: Futurum and SEMIVISION say US$46.72B, while Tech Insider (citing CNBC) says $46.87B. We follow $46.72B.
TSMC’s own release is not in our material; these are Futurum’s figures.

Outlook

Q4 guidance is US$52.3–54.3B, a 14% rise at the midpoint (53.3 ÷ 46.72 − 1 = 14.1%, our arithmetic), with gross margin of 65–67%.
The 2026 growth outlook was raised to about 44% in US dollars; the 2026 capital budget stays at $60–64B.

Key figures

US$46.72BRevenue (NT$1,494.24B), +50.9% in NT$

66.4%Gross margin, down 1.3 points on the 2-nm ramp

58.7%Operating margin; net income NT$763.06B (+68.7%)

68%High-performance computing share of revenue

Source: Futurum; SEMIVISION. TSMC’s next report date is not stated.

Oracle

Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 31) · reported Sep 10, 2026ReportedFY2027: company guidance

Revenue, backlog and guidance

Cloud revenue of $11.6B is $7.4B infrastructure plus $4.2B applications. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.92 and GAAP EPS $1.56.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO) were $664B, up $209B in a year, so the year-ago base was $455B; more than $30B of AI contracts were booked in the quarter.
Guidance for fiscal 2027 is revenue of at least $90B and non-GAAP EPS of $8.10; Q2 revenue growth is guided at 30–34%.

The cost shows in cash

Operating cash flow was $23.1B, including $11.4B of customer prepayments, against capex of $28.5B (23.1 − 28.5, our arithmetic).
Oracle sold $20B of stock through its at-the-market programme; shares outstanding rose from 2,880M to 3,024M, or 5.0%. The 10-Q (via StockTitan) shows $125.0B of senior notes and borrowings.

Key figures

$19.3BRevenue, +30%

$664BRPO (backlog), +$209B in a year

$7.4BCloud infrastructure revenue, +121%

−⁠$5.4BFree cash flow, about

Source: Oracle release; StockTitan (10-Q). Oracle’s next report date is not stated.

Takeaway: the silicon layer is capacity-limited, not demand-limited, and its margins are slipping from mix and new nodes, while the hosting layer (Oracle) shows the cost in cash.

04 AI revenue and capital expenditure

Big-four capex guidance is back-loaded, backlog is concentrated, and cash flow no longer covers the spending

What the buyers say they will spend, what AI revenue and backlog the sellers have disclosed, and who is paying. The periods differ across companies, so the chart bars and table rows are never summed unless a label says so.

Capex, backlog and free cash flow by company

Big-four total, 2026

$725–745B

Midpoint $735B; 77–82% above about $410B in 2025 (725 ÷ 410 − 1; 745 ÷ 410 − 1). Latest guidance Jul 22–Oct 21. Our sum of company guidance

Bars: midpoint of each company’s latest guidance

Amazon about $220B, cash capex (Jul 30), up from about $200B.
Alphabet $195–205B (Jul 22), up from $180–190B.
Microsoft about $175B, calendar 2026 including finance leases (Jul 29); the drop from about $190B is an accounting change.
Meta $135–145B including finance-lease principal (Oct 21), low end up from $130B.

Back-loaded, and not AI-only

First-half capex was $300.7B. Alphabet needs $57.2–62.2B a quarter against $44.9B in Q2; Meta’s Q4 must be $49.2–59.2B against $34.91B in Q3 (our arithmetic). Definitions differ and none splits out AI.

Backlog against annualised revenue

2.9xAWS: 496 ÷ 169 run rate

5.2xGoogle Cloud: 514 ÷ (24.8 × 4)

Our arithmetic

Bars: backlog (remaining performance obligations)

Microsoft commercial RPO $678B, +84% (Jun 30; reported Jul 29).
Oracle RPO $664B, up $209B (fiscal Q1 2027; Sep 10).
Google Cloud backlog $514B (Q2, Jun 30).
AWS backlog $496B, from $364B (Jun 30).

Dates differ, so the bars are not summed

Each bar is a reported figure at its own date. Part of the backlog rests on a few AI labs: see the three readings below.

Negative free cash flow at four names

−⁠$2.12B

Meta, Q3 2026, Oct 21: operating cash flow $32.79B less capex $34.91B; +$10.63B a year earlier. Reported

Who is negative

Alphabet reported its first negative free cash flow since its 2004 IPO, −⁠$5.9B (TMT Finance; the period is not given in our material).
Oracle about −⁠$5.4B in fiscal Q1 2027 (23.1 − 28.5, our arithmetic).
Amazon trailing twelve months: 161.4 − 169.0 = −⁠$7.6B (our arithmetic).

Periods are mixed

Microsoft fiscal Q4 (Jul 29), Tesla Q3 (Oct 21), Meta Q3 (Oct 21), Oracle fiscal Q1 2027 (Sep 10), Alphabet (call Jul 22) and Amazon (trailing twelve months). Microsoft expects positive free cash flow in fiscal 2027.

AI revenue and backlog the companies disclosed

The periods differ, so the rows are not summed.

Company	Metric	Value	Period, report date	Basis and source
Amazon	AWS revenue; annualised	$42.2B, +37%; $169B run rate	Q2 (Jun 30); Jul 30	ReportedFuturum, quoting the release
Amazon	AI business and chips, each	Above $25B run rate	Q2; Jul 30	Company statementFuturum
Amazon	AWS backlog (RPO)	$496B, from $364B	Jun 30, 2026	ReportedTechTimes; Tunguz
Alphabet	Google Cloud revenue; backlog	$24.8B, +82%; $514B	Q2 (Jun 30)	ReportedTechnologyChecker, citing Alphabet
Microsoft	Commercial RPO	$678B, +84%	Fiscal Q4 (Jun 30); Jul 29	ReportedCNBC
Broadcom	AI semiconductor revenue	$16.7B, +221%	Fiscal Q3 (Aug 2); Sep 2	ReportedBroadcom release
Nvidia	Data Center revenue	$89.0B, +117%	Fiscal Q2 2027 (Jul 26); Aug 26	ReportedNVIDIA release
Oracle	RPO	$664B, up $209B	Fiscal Q1 2027; Sep 10	ReportedOracle release

1 · Backlog is large relative to revenue

AWS holds 496 ÷ 169 = 2.9x its annualised revenue; Google Cloud holds 514 ÷ (24.8 × 4 = 99.2) = 5.2x (our arithmetic). Nvidia’s Data Center line was 89.0 ÷ 96.2 = 92.5% of its revenue.

2 · Backlog is concentrated in AI labs

Microsoft said in January that about 45% of its then-$625B RPO was tied to OpenAI; TMT Finance puts RPO growth at 84%, or 25% excluding OpenAI. Investing.com says about $100B of AWS backlog is one customer. Estimate UBS: 27% of Google Cloud’s 2026 revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.

3 · The material has gaps

It gives no dollar AI run-rate for Microsoft. Statista says its AI business grew 123%, and Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. Unverified Shattered.io’s $29.4B Azure figure for the June quarter is not confirmed by a primary document.

Financing and credit: who pays

The funding mix is shifting from cash flow to debt, equity and joint ventures.

Meta: capex above operating cash

Q3 capex of $34.91B exceeded operating cash flow of $32.79B (Oct 21). Reuters calls it Meta’s first cash burn in over a decade. Spending commitments are $825B, up from $700B in July. Reported

Meta: debt and a joint venture

Long-term debt rose from $59B to $84B in six months (Measured AI). The El Paso campus sits in an 80/20 venture with BlackRock funds: a $14.3B, 960 MW project backed by about $12.5B of notes priced Jul 27.

Credit markets, Oct 22

Meta’s five-year credit default swap hit a record: 114.5 bp per Reuters (via MarketScreener), 119.3 bp per Investing.com. Swaps on Oracle, Microsoft and Broadcom widened too. CoreWeave’s unsecured bond yields reached 15% in the prior week’s selloff.

Alphabet

First negative free cash flow since its 2004 IPO, −⁠$5.9B. TMT Finance puts its debt near $100B and cites an $80B equity programme from June that includes a $10B Berkshire Hathaway placement.

Amazon

Trailing free cash flow of 161.4 − 169.0 = −⁠$7.6B (our arithmetic). It issued debt this year, and Jassy said servers break even in under three years.

Microsoft

Free cash flow stayed positive at $19.6B and Microsoft expects the same in fiscal 2027. Our judgement: only Microsoft is funding growth mainly from internal cash.

Oracle

Free cash flow about −⁠$5.4B in fiscal Q1 2027 (Sep 10), and it completed a $20B at-the-market equity sale. Details are in the chips and infrastructure module.

Announced and estimated

Nvidia announced (Aug 26) financing platforms with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilise over $500B of third-party capital, “subject to definitive agreements”. A $1.65T “hidden debt” estimate for five companies mixes leases, purchase contracts and guarantees; it is not borrowed principal. Estimate

Outside the big four: Tesla

Tesla’s 2026 capex is about $20B, down from more than $25B (Oct 21). This is a Reuters report; our material holds no Tesla document for it. Press report

The wider lens: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs estimates global AI investment in 2026 at $1.019T, of which the US is $581B (Aug 7). It covers private and non-US spend and strips out non-AI capex; the $794B consensus for US hyperscalers includes non-AI spend. Estimate

Sources: Meta release, Reuters, Investing.com, TMT Finance, Measured AI, Tunguz, Oracle 10-Q (StockTitan), NVIDIA release, Goldman Sachs, BigGo. The weak points are lab-concentrated backlog and smaller operators that cannot raise money cheaply.

05 Guidance and management comments

Managements promised more volume, and the boldest outlooks are statements rather than results

What each management committed to, how the numbers compare with expectations, and which statements are guidance and which are not. Guidance is open until the company reports; reports after Oct 23 are upcoming.

Guidance at a glance

Each row names its company, period and the date the guidance was given.

Company, period	Guidance	Against expectations or prior plan	Given on	Basis
MetaQ4 2026 revenue	$73–76B (midpoint $74.5B)	1.0% above LSEG consensus of $73.73B (74.5 ÷ 73.73, our arithmetic); assumes about a 1% currency headwind	Oct 21, 2026	Company guidance (open)
MetaFY2026 capex / total expenses	$135–145B / $175–179B	Capex was $130–145B	Oct 21, 2026	Company guidance (open)
AppleFiscal Q4 2026	Revenue growth 9–11%, gross margin 47–48%	Growth limited by supply and a 2.5-point currency headwind	Jul 30, 2026	Management guidancePeriod closed, result not yet reported
NvidiaFiscal Q3 2027	$108.0B ±2%, gross margin 74.0% ±50 bp	4.0% above the pre-report consensus of $103.8B (41 analysts, Aug 24)	Aug 26, 2026	Company guidance (open)
BroadcomFiscal Q4 2026	Revenue about $34.8B; AI semiconductors $21.7B	Just under the $35B consensus	Sep 2, 2026	Company guidance (open)
BroadcomFY2027 / FY2028 AI semiconductor revenue	About $115B / $230B	Citi had expected $180B for FY2028	Sep 2, 2026	Management outlook on callA statement, not a result
AMDQ3 2026	$13.0B ±$0.3B	LSEG consensus of $12.52B (analyst estimate)	Aug 4, 2026	Company guidance (open)
TSMCQ4 2026	US$52.3–54.3B, gross margin 65–67%	2026 growth outlook raised to about 44% in US dollars	Oct 15, 2026	Company guidance (open)Via Futurum
OracleFY2027	Revenue at least $90B; non-GAAP EPS $8.10	Q2 revenue growth guided at 30–34%; capex guidance unchanged	Sep 10, 2026	Company guidance (open)
TeslaFY2026 capex	About $20B, from more than $25B	Implies about $7.0B in Q4 against about $12B under the old plan (our arithmetic)	Oct 21, 2026 call	Press report (Reuters, secondary)

Sources: Meta, NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD and Oracle releases; Yahoo Finance and CNBC for call comments; LSEG consensus via CNBC and Reuters; Futurum for TSMC; Indmoney citing Reuters for Tesla.

What managements said

Nvidia

Fiscal Q2 2027 release · Aug 26, 2026Company guidance (open)

Outlook

Q3 FY2027 revenue is guided to $108.0B ±2%, a range of $105.84B to $110.16B ($108.0B × 0.98 and × 1.02), with no China data-center compute assumed.
Call highlights (secondary) add fiscal 2028 growth of about 70%.

The “about $104B” figure often quoted is not guidance. It is the pre-report consensus of $103.8B (41 analysts, Aug 24), so the guide sat 4.0% above it (108.0 ÷ 103.8) and even the low end cleared it.

Key figures

$108.0B ±2%Q3 FY2027 revenue guide

+4.0%Guide against the pre-report consensus of $103.8B (our arithmetic)

74.0% ±50 bpGross margin guide

~70%Preliminary fiscal 2028 growth (call summary, secondary)

Broadcom

Fiscal Q3 2026 call · Sep 2, 2026Management outlook, not a result

The boldest outlook of the season

Hock Tan said FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue is about $58B, FY2027 about $115B with supply secured, and FY2028 about $230B, with “line of sight” and supply also secured. Citi had expected $180B for FY2028.
The release guides fiscal Q4 AI revenue to $21.7B (+236%) and total revenue to about $34.8B. Motley Fool gives $21.6B; we follow the release.

The challenge

Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon noted that $115B and $230B imply only $11–12B per gigawatt, against roughly $40B Nvidia has cited. Tan replied that XPUs cost “less than half”.

Key figures

~$58BFY2026 AI semiconductor revenue (management)

~$115BFY2027, supply secured (management outlook)

~$230BFY2028, “line of sight”, supply secured (management outlook)

$21.7BFiscal Q4 AI revenue guide, +236%

Apple, Tesla and Oracle

Jul 30, Oct 21 and Sep 10, 2026

Apple and Oracle

Apple guided September-quarter growth down to 9–11% on supply limits and a 2.5-point currency headwind (management guidance, Jul 30).
Oracle raised FY2027 to $8.10 and at least $90B, guided Q2 revenue growth of 30–34%, and left capex guidance unchanged (company guidance, Sep 10).

Tesla

On the Oct 21 call, Musk said robotaxi revenue should be noticeable in Q2 2027.
Reuters reported a cut in capex to about $20B, which Electrek says the Q3 letter did not update, so the cut came on the call. With $13.01B spent in nine months, $20B implies about $7.0B in Q4, versus about $12B under the old $25B (our arithmetic). Press report

Key figures

9–11%Apple fiscal Q4 growth guide

$8.10Oracle FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guide

~$7.0BImplied Tesla Q4 capex under a $20B plan (press report)

Q2 2027When Musk expects noticeable robotaxi revenue (management comment)

06 Valuation and share-price reaction

Strong prints did not hold the share price, and the first move did not last

After four of the quarter’s biggest AI reports, the after-hours reaction was reversed or faded within days. Guidance did not set the direction; capex, free cash flow and the sector tape did. Share-price figures are reported market data with the date and measure shown.

Regular-session closes after reports

Reading: the three reported closes were all down, by 4.35% to 6.98%. Nvidia’s unverified +8.74% is excluded. On Oct 22 the Nasdaq opened down 1.48% to 26,308.41 and the S&P 500 down 0.81%; Brent was near $112 (reported).

Valuation and earnings-growth estimates

S&P 500 forward P/E, Sep 21, 2026

19x, from 23x

Down from 23x a year earlier, in line with its 10-year average; the cyclically adjusted P/E is near a record but below 1999–2000. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the index at 8,700 in 12 months, up 12.1% from 7,764 (8,700 ÷ 7,764 − 1). Estimate, not our view

Q3 earnings-growth estimates differ

Citadel Securities says consensus is about 27% (Bloomberg, Oct 12), with Micron and Nvidia alone supplying 36% of expected growth, the ten largest contributors about two-thirds and the rest about 11%. LSEG’s figure is 31%. Estimate

Company multiples

Forward earnings multiples (LSEG via Reuters, Sep 11): Oracle 16.86x, Microsoft 23.84x, Amazon 22.58x. At Oct 8’s $360.14, Broadcom trades near 12x on Hock Tan’s “over $30” EPS floor (360.14 ÷ 30, our arithmetic), close to the 11.5x Motley Fool computed.

Share-price reactions, report by report

The measure matters: after-hours and premarket moves are not closes, and several reversed.

Company	Date	Move	Measure	Context	Basis
Meta	Oct 21, 2026	Up about 2.2–2.5%	After hours	On a revenue beat: $64.6B against $63.3B expected	Reported market data
Meta	Oct 22, 2026	Down 6.98% ($697.52 to $648.85)	Regular close	“AI bubble fears remerged” and semiconductors sold off. EPS consensus differs by source ($3.57 and $5.75), so only the revenue beat is cited.	Reported market data
Tesla	Oct 21, 2026	Down 3.3% ($386.47 to $373.62)	After hours	It had risen about 2% on the release, then slid after the call.	Reported market data
Tesla	Oct 22, 2026	Down about 5% (Reuters) or near 3% (Baystreet)	Premarket, at different times	Its regular-session close on Oct 22 is not in our material.	Press report
Apple	Jul 30, 2026	Down 3–4%	Extended trading	Despite a beat, after a services miss ($30.74B against $31.22B expected).	Reported market data
Broadcom	Sep 2, 2026	Down 1.3%	Overnight	On a Q4 guide just under the $35B consensus.	Reported market data
Broadcom	Oct 8, 2026	Down 4.35% to $360.14	Regular close	In a chip sell-off.	Reported market data
Oracle	Sep 10, 2026	Down 5.38% to $152.94	Regular close	It then rose about 4% in extended trading.	Reported market data
Oracle	Sep 11, 2026	Up 5.5% (Reuters)	Premarket	Yahoo Finance said it later “trimmed gains”; the Sep 11 close is not in our material.	Press report
Nvidia	Aug 27, 2026	Up 8.74% per StockTitan	Close, per an aggregator	Its own tracker shows a peak of only +3.7%.	Unverified

Sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Indmoney citing Reuters, Brisk Markets, Baystreet, StockTitan, Reuters.

Bubble warnings and the bears’ case

Most of the bearish material is commentary, not data. The only target change in our material is KeyBanc reiterating Overweight and $575 on Broadcom after the call.

Whitney Tilson

Sees “a similar AI bubble” to March 2000 (date not stated, after Aug 14). Commentary

Ameriprise, Anthony Saglimbene

Warns the cycle is “approaching peak earnings growth”. Commentary

Invesco

Argues demand already exceeds supply (date not stated). Commentary

Next up: Alphabet and Microsoft are expected on Oct 28 and Amazon on Oct 29 (secondary source), and roughly 47% of S&P 500 weight reports between Oct 28 and Nov 3 (Citadel). Those reports face a market that has just sold strong prints. Upcoming

07 What to watch next quarter

Judge the Oct 28 and 29 reports on capex and free cash flow, and track the dated checkpoints

This module turns the results, the spending and the market’s reaction into a watch list by reader, a watch list by theme and a dated calendar. It uses only facts from the modules above and gives no investment advice.

What changed, and what it implies for each reader

What changed

Beats were sold: Meta fell 6.98% on Oct 22 after a 2.2–2.5% after-hours rise on Oct 21. The S&P 500 forward P/E is 19x against 23x a year ago.

Implication

Judge the Oct 28–29 reports on capex and free cash flow, not revenue. Q3 earnings-growth estimates differ: 27% (Citadel Securities) and 31% (LSEG).

Evidence

Yahoo Finance and CNBC for the share moves; Goldman Sachs Research (Sep 21, estimate); Citadel Securities (Oct 12); LSEG.

What changed

Meta’s debt rose from $59B to $84B in six months and its commitments to $825B. Oracle sold $20B of stock and has $125.0B of notes and borrowings outstanding.

Implication

Track new issuance, swap spreads on Meta, Oracle, Microsoft and Broadcom, and joint ventures such as El Paso.

Evidence

Measured AI and Yahoo Finance for Meta; Oracle release and 10-Q (StockTitan); Investing.com and Reuters for the swaps.

What changed

Microsoft says demand exceeds capacity, Nvidia sees supply tight through fiscal 2028, and Amazon ties its capex raise to memory costs.

Implication

Expect capacity and memory prices, not demand, to set timelines. Backlog is concentrated: about $100B of AWS backlog is one customer.

Evidence

CNBC (Microsoft); GuruFocus call summary (Nvidia, secondary); TMT Finance (Amazon); Investing.com (AWS backlog).

What changed

Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and TSMC all guide up. Broadcom’s management outlook is about $115B (FY2027) and $230B (FY2028) of AI revenue, a statement, not a result.

Implication

Volume is visible, so watch margins and whether customers’ funding holds.

Evidence

NVIDIA, Broadcom and AMD releases; Futurum for TSMC; Yahoo Finance for the Broadcom call.

Watch list by theme

Capex pace

The big four guide to $725–745B for 2026, and the plan is back-loaded: Alphabet needs $57.2–62.2B a quarter against $44.9B in Q2, and Meta’s Q4 must be $49.2–59.2B against $34.91B in Q3. Alphabet and Microsoft are expected on Oct 28 and Amazon on Oct 29, according to secondary sources. Upcoming

Cash and credit

Free cash flow was −⁠$2.12B at Meta (Q3), −⁠$5.9B at Alphabet and about −⁠$5.4B at Oracle (fiscal Q1 2027). Meta’s credit default swap reached a record on Oct 22 (114.5 or 119.3 bp, by source). Tesla’s reported cut to about $20B implies about $7.0B of Q4 capex, against about $12B under the old plan.

Supplier guidance

Nvidia guides Q3 FY27 to $108.0B ±2%, Broadcom’s fiscal Q4 AI revenue to $21.7B and TSMC’s Q4 to US$52.3–54.3B, while gross margins slip (Broadcom about 73%, TSMC 65–67%). Apple guided fiscal Q4 growth to 9–11% on supply limits; its result is not yet reported and the date is not stated.

Meta’s share structure

Class C stock takes effect on Jan 19, 2027, but the charter change approved on Oct 20 is not yet effective. Upcoming

Key dates, judged on Oct 24, 2026

Dates before Oct 24, 2026 are marked “In effect”.

Date	Event	State on Oct 24, 2026	Source
Jul 22, 2026	Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195–205B	In effect	TMT Finance
Jul 29, 2026	Microsoft fiscal Q4 results; calendar-2026 capex about $175B	In effect	CNBC
Jul 30, 2026	Amazon Q2 results (capex about $220B); Apple fiscal Q3 results	In effect	Futurum; Yahoo Finance
Aug 26, 2026	Nvidia Q2 FY27 results; Q3 outlook $108.0B ±2%	In effect	NVIDIA
Sep 2, 2026	Broadcom fiscal Q3 results; FY2027 and FY2028 AI outlook	In effect	Broadcom; Yahoo Finance
Sep 10, 2026	Oracle fiscal Q1 results; FY2027 guidance	In effect	Oracle
Oct 15, 2026	TSMC Q3 results; Q4 guidance US$52.3–54.3B	In effect	Futurum
Oct 20, 2026	Meta charter change for Class C stock approved by written consent	In effect Approval only; the amendment is not yet effective	StockTitan
Oct 21, 2026	Meta and Tesla Q3 results	In effect	Meta; Electrek
Oct 22, 2026	Meta shares fall 6.98%; Meta credit swaps at a record	In effect	Yahoo Finance; Reuters
Oct 28, 2026	Alphabet and Microsoft expected to report	Upcoming	Memeburn; Yahoo Finance
Oct 29, 2026	Amazon expected to report	Upcoming	Yahoo Finance
Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2026	About 47% of S&P 500 weight reports	Upcoming	Citadel
Jan 19, 2027	Meta Class C stock effective, if the charter amendment is effective	Upcoming	Meta; StockTitan

→

The next quarter tests whether back-loaded capex of $725–745B can be paid for from cash flow and AI-lab contracts, because Meta, Alphabet and Oracle already show negative free cash flow while suppliers guide to higher revenue.

This page describes company results; it is not investment advice.