The fortnight's active measures came from sanctions, procurement law and China's catalogue, not from a new BIS rule
Between Oct 10 and Oct 23, 2026, the active measures were a sanctions action, a procurement order and China's export catalogue. Five conclusions explain the fortnight; pick one to see its evidence and the module that proves it.
Five conclusions
Washington acted through sanctions and procurement, not the export regulations
On Oct 19 the State Department and Treasury designated five entities under the Protecting American Intellectual Property Act (PAIPA), with a bar on US loans above $10 million per 12 months (in effect). The Department of Homeland Security's order excluding DeepSeek from federal systems was signed on Jul 24 and published on Oct 20 (in effect). The sources contain no BIS rule and no Entity List addition dated Oct 10–23.
China moved on AI exports
On Oct 16 MOFCOM issued Announcement No. 48, a draft catalogue of 40 additions (23 AI-related, 12 solar, 5 biomedicine), with comments to Nov 15. Interim pre-export registration took effect the same day. Reports put 14 items under prohibition and 26 under restriction.
Congress advanced nothing in the window
The Stop Stealing our Chips Act (S. 1473) passed the Senate on May 20 and awaits the House, and the MATCH Act (H.R. 8170) remains in committee; both are bills, not law. The $300M-plus smuggling indictment against Earthmade Computer's chief executive was announced on Oct 1–2, so it is context.
Compliant products fill part of the gap, with a fulfilment ceiling
Reuters reported on Oct 20 that ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordered more than 3 million RTX Pro 5500 cards, a list value above $35B, while buyers may receive only 5%–10% of what they want (Nvidia has not confirmed). IDC puts Nvidia at 34% and Huawei at 28% of China's AI accelerator shipments in H1 2026.
Dated deadlines, not new rules, set the next weeks
China's rare-earth suspension ends on Nov 10 with no extension published, and the BIS Affiliates Rule stay ends on Nov 9. ASML says China was 23% of Q3 system sales, up from 14% in Q2 and down from 42% a year earlier.
Measures at a glance
| Issuer | Measure and instrument | Effective | Status on Oct 24 | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State; OFAC | Sanctions on five Chinese entitiesPAIPA designations | Oct 19, 2026 | In effect | In effect |
| DHS | DeepSeek exclusion from federal systemsOrder #2026-01 | Signed Jul 24; published Oct 20 | In effect | In effect |
| MOFCOM | 40 catalogue additions, 23 AI-relatedAnnouncement No. 48 | Issued Oct 16 | Draft; comments to Nov 15 | Draft |
| MOFCOM | Pre-export registration of the 40 itemsInterim rule in Announcement No. 48 | Oct 16 | In effect, interim | Interim |
| Congress | Stop Stealing our Chips ActS. 1473 | Passed Senate May 20 | Bill; awaits House | Bill, not law |
| Congress | MATCH ActH.R. 8170 | Introduced Apr 2 | Bill; in committee | Bill, not law |
| BIS | Affiliates Rule stayPublished stay | Ends Nov 9 | Upcoming; rule returns Nov 10 | Upcoming |
Sources: OFAC, Akin Gump, CellCog, ChinaTalk, Legis1, Visual Compliance.
Washington acted through sanctions and procurement law, and the only pending BIS date is the Affiliates Rule stay ending Nov 9
This module checks each US measure for issuer, instrument and status. The material contains no BIS rule and no Entity List addition published between Oct 10 and Oct 23, 2026.
Three US measures, one by one
The State Department said it was sanctioning five entities connected to People's Republic of China national Linwei Ding: Shanghai Zhisuan Technology Co. Ltd., Qiji Chuangtan Beijing Investment Management Co. Ltd. (MiraclePlus), two MiraclePlus funds and Beijing Qiji Chuangtan Zhiyuan Enterprise Management Center Limited Partnership. Ding was convicted on Jan 29, 2026 of stealing Google trade secrets Context. This is a sanctions measure, not a chip-export rule. On Oct 20 China's Ministry of Commerce said it would take "necessary measures" if Washington does not reverse it.
The order requires agencies to remove DeepSeek products and third-party products developed using DeepSeek implementations. FAR 52.204-30 bars contractors from providing or using covered products absent a waiver, and CISA had issued no guidance on the "developed using" test (TechTimes). One source describes an order made on Oct 19; this page follows Akin Gump, Forkast and TechTimes. The Federal Register citation reported by Forkast is not confirmed by a primary text.
The September truce extension to Jan 10, 2027 has no matching BIS rule or statement, per Wilson Sonsini and Visual Compliance (both Oct 21). There is still no replacement for the AI Diffusion Rule, whose rescission BIS announced on May 13, 2025. In force as context: the headquarters-based licence requirement (BIS guidance of May 31, 2026) and case-by-case review for chips below TPP 21,000 and 6,500 GB/s of DRAM bandwidth, capped at 50% of US shipments (Jan 15, 2026 rule).
Measures table: window versus context
| Date | Issuer | Measure | Instrument | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | State; Treasury OFAC | Sanctions on five entities | PAIPA designations (50 U.S.C. 1709); OFAC list entries; General Licenses 1 and 2 | In effect Window |
| Signed Jul 24; published Oct 20, 2026 | DHS | DeepSeek exclusion and removal | Order #2026-01 under FASCSA 2018; docket DHS-2026-0628 | In effect Window (publication) |
| Oct 10–23 | BIS | Any rule or Entity List change | None in the material | None found |
| Stay to Nov 9, 2026 | BIS | Affiliates (50%) Rule stay | Published stay; citation not stated. Rule returns Nov 10 unless BIS acts | Upcoming Context |
| Jul 14, 2026 | BIS | UAE rule | Rule; final or interim not stated. Effective Jul 10. Lists 2 UAE companies (G42, Core42) and 8 US companies as approved consignees | In effect Context |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BIS | H200-class licensing | Final rule, 91 FR 1684 | In effect Context |
Sources: State Department, OFAC, Akin Gump, Forkast, TechTimes, Export Compliance Daily, Wilson Sonsini, Visual Compliance.
Congress produced committee votes and lobbying filings, not law, and the Earthmade indictment is context
The material shows no bill enacted and no chamber vote dated between Oct 10 and Oct 23, 2026. Every passage or committee date below is context; what moved in the window was lobbying disclosure.
Bills: where each one stands
| Bill | Status as of Oct 24, 2026 | What it would do | Date | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. 1473 Stop Stealing our Chips Act (Sen. Rounds) | Passed the Senate by unanimous consent, after an amendment; House received it and held it at the desk | BIS whistleblower incentive program, reporting protections, a secure submission channel and an Export Compliance Accountability Fund | Senate May 20; House May 21 | Bill, not law |
| H.R. 6322 House companion | House Foreign Affairs ordered it reported as amended, 43-1; no floor vote stated | Same subject | Apr 22 | Bill, not law |
| S. 3301 Chip EQUIP Act (Sen. Kelly) | Remains in Senate committee | For 10 years, bars recipients of federal chip-manufacturing aid from buying certain advanced equipment from foreign entities of concern | Date not stated | Bill, not law |
| H.R. 6207 (Rep. Lofgren) | Energy and Commerce ordered it reported, 39-0; no floor vote | Same | Sept 16; hearing June 30 | Bill, not law |
| H.R. 8170 MATCH Act (Rep. Baumgartner) | In House Foreign Affairs; 31 cosponsors; no floor vote | Allied-aligned equipment controls (see below) | Introduced Apr 2 | Bill, not law |
| S. 4281 Senate MATCH companion | No later committee or floor action identified | Same | Introduced Apr 8 | Bill, not law |
| NDAA H.R. 8800 / S. 4784 | House passed H.R. 8800; Senate Armed Services Committee reported S. 4784; full Senate has not voted | Carrier bill; AEI says AI OVERWATCH, Chip Security and MATCH Acts could be added | AEI page undated | Bill, not law |
Sources: Legis1, AEI, Tech Wire Asia.
Q3 2026 lobbying disclosures
$1.2 million in Q3 2026 against $830,000 in Q2. The arithmetic holds: 1,070,000 + 20,000 + 50,000 + 60,000 = 1,200,000. Other filers on S. 1473 include Lenovo (United States) Inc., AI Policy Network Inc. and Entegris Inc.
In-house $110,000 (Q2: $100,000) plus Girard Government Relations at $30,000. It employs a former House Foreign Affairs counsel. These are filings, a window event.
A filing shows spending and the bills named on it. It does not show a position on those bills, and it does not change their status.
Two items behind the bills
Legis1 names SMIC, YMTC and Huawei as targets. The Centre for a New American Security (via Tech Wire Asia) adds Hua Hong and CXMT and says the 150 days would be given to the Netherlands and Japan, with the foreign direct product rule as the fallback. Two outlets say the bill reaches servicing of installed machines, but neither quotes bill text, so servicing scope is Reported. Sources conflict on committee status (ordered reported on Apr 22 versus "remains pending"); this page follows "in committee, no floor vote". ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet warned that overly broad restrictions would push China to build alternatives faster.
Context, not a window event The indictment against Greg Lui, who runs Earthmade Computer, was announced or unsealed on Oct 1–2; a charge is an allegation. The chips fall under ECCN 4A090.a, which needs a licence for China but not for Malaysia or Singapore, so a licence-free destination is not a licence-free end user. Red flags drawn from the case by Volkov Law Group:
- Lumber-industry buyer ordering high-performance servers
- Company incorporated months before a $22 million order
- Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong waypoints
- Front-company shipper with a Chinese consignee
- Multiple freight forwarders
Sources: Legis1, Tech Wire Asia, ChinaTalk, Volkov Law Group, SpinDepth, NTD.
China's lever is now AI itself: a 40-item draft catalogue with interim registration already in force, while the rare-earth clock runs to Nov 10
The material holds no new Dutch or Japanese government measure dated in the window. The account of Announcement No. 48 rests on secondary reports of the notice, which agree on dates and counts.
The 40-item draft catalogue, two splits
Proposes adding 40 technologies to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export. Comments open Oct 16 to Nov 15, 2026; the final version has no announced date.
In effect from Oct 16 until the revised catalogue takes effect, and it covers exports begun but not finished. The form asks for parties, destination, technology, intended use and estimated value.
Attachment 1 is not rendered on the notice page. Bloomberg and AP report restricted models at 2 trillion parameters or more, or a global top-10 rank; CellCog and The Decoder add 10^26 training FLOPs. Reports differ on the "core or important data" line.
Scope, rare earths and allies
Assigning ownership of the technology abroad.
Licensing the technology abroad.
Changing the owner or actual controller to a foreign entity.
Anything else MOFCOM later specifies.
An exporter must register before any of the four. Prohibited examples are the core technology of large models trained on sensitive national data and of agents built for defence or critical infrastructure; restricted examples are AI-assisted vulnerability discovery, AI-chip design with 2.5D/3D integration, 3D flash memory and speech recognition. According to MOFCOM's spokesperson, API, app, web, SaaS and lightweight on-device access is not a technology export, public open-source weights are out of scope, and no country is targeted. ChinaTalk reads the regime as data-gathering before licensing.
Context The Washington summit was on Sep 23–25 or Sep 24–26, depending on the source. Wilson Sonsini (Oct 21) lists a two-month extension of the Busan truce from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027; neither side scaled back national-security controls. MOFCOM's Sep 28 statement on the extension did not mention rare earths, so this page follows the published instruments.
No new government measure dated in the window. Context The Dutch government does not license EUV exports to China, and the MATCH Act (bill, not law) would give both countries 150 days to align.
Economics Minister Kung Ming-hsin told Bloomberg (Oct 16) that Taiwan will add advanced semiconductors and AI servers to its controlled list and make unauthorised shipments to China a crime. Not in effect.
It needs a legal amendment, with no start date, penalties or product list given. Current controls rely on a company blacklist that added Huawei and SMIC in mid-2025.
Sources: ChinaTalk, Dealroom, CellCog, Global Times, Bloomberg, AP, Wilson Sonsini, Peacock Tariff Consulting, Taiwan News.
Company exposure is mostly reports and estimates: Nvidia's compliant cards are ordered in volume but may be filled at only 5% to 10%
The two headline Nvidia numbers are not company figures. The $35 billion RTX Pro 5500 order is a list-price total from unnamed sources that Nvidia has not confirmed, and the 34% China share is an IDC estimate seen by Reuters.
Who holds the China market
ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordered over 3 million RTX Pro 5500 cards at about $11,400 each; total Chinese orders exceed 6 million. 3 million × $11,400 = $34.2 billion, so "over $35 billion" implies about 3.07 million cards.
Nvidia told customers it cannot guarantee it can fill the orders. At 5%–10% of 3 million, buyers would get 150,000–300,000 cards, about $1.7–3.4 billion at list price (our arithmetic). Samples are expected in December 2026 and shipments in Q1 2027.
Guidance of $108.0 billion ± 2% for the current quarter excludes China data-center compute revenue; results are due Nov 18. H200 sales to China were under 1% of the $89 billion data-center revenue in the quarter ended July 26.
Exposure at a glance
| Company | What changed | Figure | Status and type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | RTX Pro 5500 orders; cannot guarantee fill | >3M cards, ~$11,400 each | Reported, Oct 20 (Reuters, unnamed sources) | Reported |
| Huawei | Share of China AI accelerators, H1 2026 | 28% vs Nvidia 34% | Estimate (IDC, Oct 13) | Estimate |
| DeepSeek | Plans Ascend 950DT pre-training | End-2026 at the earliest | Reported; date not stated | Reported |
| Samsung, SK hynix | China NAND fabs upgraded | Xi'an 5,000 wafers/month, Dec 2026 | Reported, Oct 21; ramp not company-published | Reported |
| ASML | China share of system sales | 23% (Q2: 14%) | Company results, Oct 14 | Company results |
| Tokyo Electron, Intel | Q3 lobbying disclosures | $110,000 in-house; $1.2M total | Filings | Filings |
Sources: Reuters, IDC, The Information, TechPowerUp, StockTitan, Legis1, Taipei Times, Yahoo Finance.
Reuters reported that Samsung is converting Xi'an to 286-layer V9 NAND, targeting 5,000 wafers a month in December 2026 and 40,000 by December 2027, and that SK hynix is moving Dalian from 192 to 240-plus layers. Both confirmed upgrades are under way in consultation with the US government and said they are not adding capacity. Reuters gives YMTC 38.5% of China NAND in Q2 2026, Samsung 33.5% and SK hynix 17%, with no analyst firm named.
Compliant products now set the China revenue ceiling for US firms, and supply, not demand, is the limit. The Korean fabs depend on a licence that must be renewed each year: context is that BIS said in August 2025 it would license existing operations but not expansion or upgrades, and both received annual licences for 2026 on Dec 30, 2025.
Every adjustment works at the edge of the controls: compliant GPUs and Huawei's Ascend are both short, so scarcity and price absorb the controls
Only dated, sourced moves are listed. Filter by who moved; the status label shows how firm each item is.
Adjustment table
| Actor | Adjustment | Evidence | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese AI firms | Buy compliant gaming and workstation GPUs | >1 million RTX Pro 6000D, RTX Pro 5000, RTX 5090 this year (FT, via Tom's Hardware) | FT, Oct 13 | Reported |
| ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent; Nvidia | Order RTX Pro 5500; Nvidia rations supply | >$35B, >3M cards; Nvidia reportedly can fill 5–10% | Date not stated | Reported unconfirmed on record |
| Chinese data-centre operators | Shift to non-GPU domestic accelerators | H1 2026 non-GPU 1.016M vs GPU 0.991M units (IDC, via 36Kr) | Oct 13–14 | Reported |
| Chinese memory makers | Stockpile DUV tools | China 23% of ASML system sales in Q3 vs 14% in Q2; CXMT, YMTC reportedly hold three years of tools | Oct 14 | Share: company results Stockpiling: reported |
| ASML | Raises replacement-part prices 10% for Samsung, SK hynix | TheElec, via Substack | Oct 10; from Jan 2027 | Reported unconfirmed by ASML |
| China, to the EU | "Green channel" for rare-earth and magnet licences | Bloomberg via Carbon Brief; Bruegel | Talks Oct 8–9 (context); follow-up Oct 12 | Announced start date not stated |
| Taiwan | Add advanced chips and AI servers to export-control list | Minister Kung Ming-hsin to Bloomberg | Oct 16 | Planned date not stated |
| Apple | Reviews Chinese-made DRAM | CEO John Ternus: "We must review all options, including Chinese-made memory" | Oct 15 | Statement adoption uncertain |
The limits of the workarounds
The RTX 5090 lists at $1,999 but sells at three resellers for at least $7,199, 3.6 times list. iSoftStone reportedly secured 8,000 RTX PRO 6000D cards worth about 560 million yuan, or 70,000 yuan a card.
Reuters reports over 6M RTX Pro 5500 orders against up to 3M cards built in 2027, so fulfilment cannot exceed 50%, yet Nvidia reportedly told partners 5–10%. The sources do not reconcile the two.
Xu Zhijun, Sept 17 (context): "We have not secured production capacity sufficient to meet demand within China". Per 36Kr, SMIC yield and HBM supply are the limits.
Critical minerals and managed access
Germany received no gallium for a second month. Non-Chinese concentrates trade at estimated 15–25% premiums (TechTimes). The Semiconductor Industry Association found only 68% of US chip equipment and materials is made in the US, Europe or Japan, against 95% by supplier headquarters, and urged stockpiles; stockpiling is advised more than documented. Chinese toolmakers averaged 36% revenue growth in H1 2026, and ASML expects China at about 20% of 2026 net sales.
Sources: Reuters, Financial Times, Tom's Hardware, IDC, 36Kr, TheElec, Bloomberg, Bruegel, Peacock Tariff Consulting, TechTimes, SIA, Institute for Progress.
Treat bills and drafts as pending, count only effective measures as changes, and track the November deadlines
This module reads the earlier modules together and adds a dated watch-list. It uses only facts shown above.
Five PAIPA designations took effect Oct 19 and the DeepSeek order was published Oct 20. No BIS rule or Entity List addition dated Oct 10–23 appears in the sources.
Announcement No. 48 lists 40 additions, 23 AI-related. The catalogue is a draft, but interim pre-export registration has applied since Oct 16.
S. 1473 awaits the House; the MATCH Act would give the Netherlands and Japan 150 days to align and remains in committee.
3M+ cards ordered against a reported 5%–10% fill; IDC at 34% for Nvidia and 28% for Huawei; ASML China at 23% in Q3.
The rare-earth suspension ends Nov 10 and the germanium and gallium suspension runs to Nov 27, with no extension published for either.
Whether the Busan truce extension to Jan 10, 2027 also covers rare earths. The safe reading is that Nov 10 is the only dated expiry.
What it means by reader
No new BIS rule; China's AI catalogue is a draft with interim registration in effect.
Plan for rule changes around Nov 9–10 and keep China exposure disclosed by quarter.
No BIS rule found (Oct 13 report); Affiliates Rule stay ends Nov 9; ASML China 23% of Q3 system sales.
Compliant workstation cards are ordered in volume, but only 5%–10% may be fulfilled (reported).
Do not plan capacity on reported order sizes; confirm allocations.
Reuters, Oct 20: over 3 million cards ordered, Nvidia cannot guarantee fill and has not confirmed the order.
Congress and China's catalogue are in draft; deadlines fall in November.
Track the House calendar, MOFCOM's comment close on Nov 15 and the rare-earth expiry on Nov 10.
S. 1473 passed the Senate May 20 and awaits the House; comments on Announcement No. 48 run to Nov 15; no rare-earth extension published.
Dated watch-list
| Date | Event | State on Oct 24, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | MOFCOM Announcement No. 48 issued; interim registration starts | In effect (interim) catalogue draft | ChinaTalk |
| Oct 19, 2026 | PAIPA sanctions on five entities | In effect | OFAC |
| Oct 20, 2026 | DHS DeepSeek order published | In effect | Akin Gump |
| Nov 9, 2026 | BIS Affiliates Rule stay ends; rule returns Nov 10 unless BIS acts | Upcoming | Visual Compliance |
| Nov 10, 2026 | China's rare-earth suspension ends; extension unconfirmed | Upcoming | Peacock Tariff Consulting |
| Nov 15, 2026 | MOFCOM comment period on the draft catalogue closes | Upcoming | Dealroom |
| Nov 18, 2026 | Nvidia earnings; guidance excludes China data-center compute | Upcoming | Yahoo Finance |
| Nov 27, 2026 | China's germanium and gallium suspension runs to this date | Upcoming | Rare Earth Exchanges |
| Dec 2026 | Early RTX Pro 5500 samples; commercial shipments in Q1 2027 (reported) | Upcoming Reported | Taipei Times |
| Jan 10, 2027 | Busan truce extension period ends | Upcoming | Wilson Sonsini |